Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

#106

Post by Cult Icon » 14 Jun 2022, 04:50

Since the Ukrainians constantly use fake numbers and conceal the condition of their forces, getting a realistic figure of their human losses is difficult. No information on unit strengths.

Russian war correspondent (PRAVDA) Alexandr Kot made some interesting statements in Q and A about the condition of Ukrainian units. They believe that the Ukrainian combat formations are heavily degraded with approx. 20% professionals and 80% replacements, due to high losses in trained personnel. Ukrainian artillery is their most powerful weapon and is well trained. Ukrainian infantry is poor and cannon-fodder like right now due to high losses and low training. It is the 20/80 that interests me the most as the German army's combat effectiveness also weakened once they reached such situations in late 1944. If the ratio drops to 10/90 the Ukrainian brigades may no longer to defend reliably even with a steady stream of cannon fodder, and the Russians may re-start an offensive maneuver again. Kot may be wrong/doing propaganda and overstated the damage, but it prompts this exercise to gauge the upper limit of actual Ukrainian military deaths:

If the Ukrainians suffered an average of 300 KIA a day for the first 110 days of the war this would be 33,000 dead and approx. 198,000-132,000 casualties, plus MIA/POW.
350 KIA a day for 110 days: 38,500 dead and approx. 231,000- 154,000, plus MIA/POW.
400 KIA a day for 110 days: 44,000 dead and approx. 264,000- 176,000, plus MIA/POW
450 KIA a day for 110 days: 49,500 dead and approx. 297,000- 198,000, plus MIA/POW
500 KIA a day for 110 days: 55,000 dead and approx. 330,000 - 220,000, plus MIA/POW
550 KIA a day for 110 days: 60,500 dead and approx. 363,000 -242,000, plus MIA/POW
600 KIA a day for 110 days: 66,000 dead and approx. 396,000- 264,000 plus MIA/POW

Military Balance 2021 (IISS) Ukraine (317,000) then plus XXX,XXX since the war started:
Army 145,000
Naval Infantry ε2,000
Airborne Assault Troops ε8,000
Paramilitary 102,000
National Guard ε60,000

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

#107

Post by Cult Icon » 14 Jun 2022, 06:58

WP:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Danylyuk

"Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days."

"“But when you look at what’s happening, I’d be shocked if the Russians are sustaining casualties anywhere close to what the Ukrainians are right now,” Alperovitch said."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk ... uxbndlbing

Besides the lower BBC RU Russian death figures, reported DPR casualties also show that April-May had much lower losses. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainian losses were, not only far in excess but several times that of the Russian as the Ukrainian psych-ops house of cards comes closer to falling.


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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

#108

Post by Cult Icon » 14 Jun 2022, 14:34

A sample of Russian MOD Ukr casualty claims credited to air force, strategic missile services and artillery troops, (incomplete):

6/14: 350
6/13: 120
6/12: 470
6/11: 470
6/10: 500
6/9: 500
6/8: 480
6/7: 570
6/6: 450
6/5: 350
6/4: 400
6/3: 360
6/2: 240
6/1: 340
5/31: 290
5/30: 320
5/29: 300
5/28: 260
5/27: 250
5/26: 350
5/25: 300
5/24: 210
5/23: 230
5/22: 210

https://t.me/s/mod_russia

To summarize, the Russian MOD typically gives 1-2 figures on human losses, one for airpower and the other for strategic missile services and artillery. They usually have the airpower claim but are frequently missing the missiles/artillery one. So their claim for airpower is generally 350-150. The missiles/artillery claim, when included, is usually larger than the airpower claim.

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

#109

Post by Tom Peters » 15 Jun 2022, 04:34

Cult Icon wrote:
14 Jun 2022, 04:50
Since the Ukrainians constantly use fake numbers and conceal the condition of their forces, getting a realistic figure of their human losses is difficult. No information on unit strengths.
Since the Russians constantly use fake numbers and conceal the condition of their forces, getting a realistic figure of their human losses is difficult. No information on unit strengths.

Fixed it for you.

Stop quoting the official RU sources. They have no basis in reality that anyone can determine. Your calculations are meaningless when based off of such potentially flawed data. For example ? Why would anyone assume 300 UKR KIA each day ? Using a RU "War Correspondent" (i.e., political propaganda officer) is hardly the useful source of information.

We all agree that official UKR and RU sources are very suspect.

So why do you parrot the RU party line ?

Mad Dog

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