Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 16 May 2022 05:07

Some more Russian military figures from 2021:

Russian army:

SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE LAUNCHERS
SRBM 150:
Dual-capable 150 9K720 Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone)
GLCM • Dual-capable Some 9M728 (SSC-7 Southpaw);
some 9M729 (SSC-8 Screwdriver)

Russian Marines:

SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE LAUNCHER
SRBM • Dual-capable 12 9K720 Iskander-M (SS-26 Stone)
GLCM • Dual-capable Some 9M728 (SSC-7 Southpaw)

Naval Aviation ε31,000
AIRCRAFT 219 combat capable

HELICOPTERS
ATK 8 Mi-24P Hind
ASW 63: 41 Ka-27PL Helix; 22 Ka-27M Helix
EW 8 Mi-8 Hip J
AEW 2 Ka-31R Helix
SAR 16 Ka-27PS Helix D
TPT 41: Medium 35: 27 Ka-29 Helix; 4 Mi-8T Hip; 4 Mi8MT Hip; Light 6 Ka-226T

The Russian navy alone has a larger air and helicopter force than Ukraine!

The trump card of the Ukrainians is their reservists, an unknown percentage is being converted to active forces. The Russians are extremely outnumbered in infantrymen. The 2021 book gives the reservist pool as 900,000 men.

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 16 May 2022 14:03

Russian figures:

Naval Aviation (missing helicopter stats):

Northern Fleet
AIRCRAFT
FTR 38: 20 MiG-31BM Foxhound C; 18 Su-33
Flanker D
FGA 25: 19 MiG-29KR Fulcrum; 4 MiG-29KUBR
Fulcrum; 2 Su-30SM Flanker H
ATK 18: 13 Su-24M Fencer; 5 Su-25UTG Frogfoot
(trg role)
ASW 21: 10 Il-38 May; 11 Tu-142MK/MZ/MR Bear
F/J
ISR 4 Su-24MR Fencer
ELINT 3: 2 Il-20RT Coot A; 1 Il-22 Coot B
TPT 9: 8 An-26 Curl; 1 Tu-134

Baltic Fleet
AIRCRAFT
FTR 18 Su-27/Su-27UB Flanker B/C
FGA 8 Su-30SM Flanker H
ATK 10 Su-24M Fencer
ISR 4 Su-24MR Fencer
TPT 8: 6 An-26 Curl; 2 Tu-134 Crusty

Russian Military Air Force
6th Air Force & Air Defence Army

AIRCRAFT
FTR 30 MiG-31BM Foxhound C
FGA 98: 12 Su-27SM Flanker J; 24 Su-30SM Flanker
H; 24 Su-34 Fullback; 38 Su-35S Flanker M
ISR 19: 4 An-30 Clank; 15 Su-24MR Fencer E*
TPT 12 An-12/An-26/Tu-134
HELICOPTERS
ATK 76+: 24 Ka-52A Hokum B; 16 Mi-24P Hind; 24
Mi-28N Havoc B; 12+ Mi-35 Hind
EW 10 Mi-8PPA Hip
TPT • Medium 50 Mi-8 Hip

14th Air Force & Air Defence Army
AIRCRAFT
FTR 40 MiG-31BM Foxhound C
FGA 24 Su-34 Fullback
ATK 13 Su-25SM Frogfoot
ISR 9 Su-24MR Fencer E
TPT 36 An-12 Cub/An-26 Curl/Tu-134 Crusty/Tu154 Careless
HELICOPTERS
ATK 24 Mi-24 Hind
TPT 46: 6 Mi-26 Halo; 40 Mi-8 Hip

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 16 May 2022 14:09

Black Sea Fleet (missing helicopter stats)

AIRCRAFT
FGA 12 Su-30SM Flanker H
ATK 13 Su-24M Fencer D
ISR 4 Su-24MR Fencer E
MP 3 Be-12PS Mail*
TPT 6 An-26

4th Air Force & Air Defence Army
AIRCRAFT
FTR 26: 12 MiG-29 Fulcrum; 14 Su-27 Flanker B
FGA 95: 12 Su-27SM Flanker J; 24 Su-27SM3
Flanker; 14 Su-30M2 Flanker G; 21 Su-30SM Flanker
H; 24 Su-34 Fullback
ATK 109: 24 Su-24M Fencer D; 85 Su-25SM/SM3
Frogfoot
ISR 12 Su-24MR Fencer E
TPT 12 An-12 Cub
HELICOPTERS
ATK 117: 25 Ka-52A Hokum B; 44 Mi-28N Havoc
B; 8 Mi-24P Hind; 40 Mi-35 Hind
TPT 72: Heavy 10 Mi-26 Halo; Medium 62 Mi-8 Hip

Pacific Fleet (missing helicopter stats)
AIRCRAFT
FTR 12 MiG-31B/BS Foxhound A
ASW 23: 11 Tu-142MK/MZ/MR Bear F/J; 12 Il-38
May
EW • ELINT 1 Il-22 Coot B
TPT 6: 2 An-12BK Cub; 3 An-26 Curl; 1 Tu-134

11th Air Force & Air Defence Army
AIRCRAFT
FTR 20 MiG-31BM Foxhound C
FGA 120: 23 Su-27SM Flanker J; 6 Su-30M2 Flanker
G; 31 Su-30SM Flanker H; 26 Su-34 Fullback; 34
Su-35S Flanker M
ATK 102: 20 Su-24M Fencer D; 10 Su-24M2 Fencer;
72 Su-25/Su-25SM Frogfoot
ISR 12 Su-24MR Fencer E
TPT 24: 22 An-12 Cub/An-26 Curl; 1 Tu-134
Crusty; 1 Tu-154 Careless
HELICOPTERS
ATK 36: 24 Ka-52A Hokum B; 12 Mi-24P Hind
TPT 60: Heavy 4 Mi-26 Halo; Medium 56 Mi-8 Hip

Border Guard Service
AIRCRAFT • TPT ε86: 70 An-24 Coke/An-26 Curl/An-72
Coaler/Il-76 Candid/Tu-134 Crusty/Yak-40 Codling; 16 SM92
HELICOPTERS: ε200 Ka-28 (Ka-27) Helix ASW/Mi-24
Hind Atk/Mi-26 Halo Spt/Mi-8 Hip Spt

National Guard
AIRCRAFT
TPT 29: Heavy 9 Il-76 Candid; Medium 2 An-12 Cub;
Light 18: 12 An-26 Curl; 6 An-72 Coaler
HELICOPTERS
TPT 71: Heavy 10 Mi-26 Halo; Medium 60+: 60 Mi-8
Hip; some Mi-8AMTSh Hip; Light 1 Ka-226T

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 16 May 2022 19:07

Russian Strategic Rocket Forces 50,000

3 Rocket Armies operating silo and mobile launchers
organised in 12 divs. Regt normally with 6 to 10 silos or 9
mobile launchers, and one control centre.
FORCES BY ROLE
SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE
2 ICBM regt with RS-12M Topol (SS-25 Sickle)
8 ICBM regt with RS-12M2 Topol-M (SS-27 mod 1)
2 ICBM regt with RS-18 (SS-19 Stiletto)
1 ICBM regt with RS-18 with Avangard HGV (SS-19
mod 4)
8 ICBM regt with RS-20 (SS-18 Satan)
14 ICBM regt with RS-24 Yars (SS-27 mod 2)
6 ICBM regt with Yars-S

SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILE LAUNCHERS
ICBM • Nuclear: 336 units

Long-Range Aviation Command
BOMBER
1 sqn with Tu-160/Tu-160 mod Blackjack
3 sqn with Tu-95MS/MS mod Bear
EQUIPMENT BY TYPE
AIRCRAFT: 76

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 18 May 2022 18:11

video presenting Russian 152mm SP guns and their drones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhUjul5S17M

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 21 May 2022 00:02

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 22 May 2022 13:55

The Severodonesk pocket/Luhansk is now the primary Russian goal with the Popasna salient being the key area. I believe that the Kharkiv and Izyum Axis are fixing operations. The Russians have gone to the defensive in Kharkiv and Izyum continues to attack despite being plugged by several Ukrainian brigades.

This is a war of attrition.

Drone footage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-sPTSHsHqA

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 29 May 2022 20:03

https://zona.media/translate/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

Data, tables, and breakdowns of confirmed Russian deaths by BBC RU.

At least 2622 confirmed military deaths from February 24 to May 18

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 30 May 2022 00:36

Severodonetsk is now a key pivot point.

The crew of analysts that write these daily reports have a serious flaw among several- they do not understand the concept of a "fixing attack". If they were more familar WW2 warfare they would not make this mistake. In particular it was an integral part of Soviet operations.

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Gooner1 » 30 May 2022 14:45

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Haven't heard of 'multiple credible' mutinies in the Soviet days, though the Russian raping and looting that's been going on is straight back to 1945

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 30 May 2022 15:01

The problem with the "low morale" claims is the lack of overall evidence. There is similar evidence of low morale of Ukrainian forces. Also the latter has a much higher number of personnel taken prisoner. My hunch based on WW2 studies is that both sides have good morale due to the low number of prisoners on both sides. The low morale stuff is propaganda.

Also it is important to make the distinction between the Russian army and the conscripted/volunteer militas DRP/LRP. The latter is taking more than half of claimed Russian army losses and are the prime source of infantrymen on the Russian side. However they are operating together.

The British claim that the Russians have high Officer losses appears to be accurate based on the BBC RU effort however the Russian army/Soviet army was always organized differently. Junior officers perform tasks of Senior NCOs in western armies. The related conclusion, however is questionable, given that the Russian BTG is by design very infantry lite. Losses of tank crews and infantryman would still leave logistics and artillery forces in-tact, which is providing the bulk of the combat value. I wonder to what extent their analysis is from Ukrainian propaganda.

What the BBC RU research implies is that the Russian Airborne forces took disproportionately high losses compared to Motorized infantry. The salient west of Kyiv was where the Russian airborne troops were concentrated. Also the worst Russian losses were in March 2022 and losses are much lower now.
Last edited by Cult Icon on 30 May 2022 18:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 30 May 2022 18:09

video presenting the SU-25 ground attack fighter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDFxhvw7Jf8

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by VanillaNuns » 30 May 2022 18:18

As I've said before, wars are won on the battlefield, not on Twitter and Facebook so I'm very wary of believing anything from UK and US intelligence who are hardly going to consistently contradict their Ukrainian allies. If you believe the propaganda, Russia has lost 30% of their troops since March!

The western media is an echo chamber.

Remember how they all laughed and ridiculed at the prospect of Trump winning in 2016?

And then made the identical mistake again in 2020?

For a few hours, the election was genuinely on a knife edge.

Once the war starts turning against Ukraine, the narrative will change. They don't report the news anymore. They just craft the story to suit their own agenda.

US and UK intelligence are overrated. Detractors will say the Iraq war failings of 2003 are almost 20 years ago. But the recent debacle in Afghanistan only shows how they still get it wrong!

Hubris.

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by VanillaNuns » 30 May 2022 21:05

An excellent article here:

https://unherd.com/2022/05/is-russia-ab ... ze-donbas/

And this from the comments caught my eye. Much of the article is really what some members like Cult Icon have been saying already:
The Russian army is very different to the US. Thet are infantry light, with a massive artillery component. And what happened initially was that they held back their artillery. It’s as if the US attacked, not a rag tag bunch of militants but a well trained, prepared, entrenched army – and didn’t use their air force to just blast everything in sight, with no consequence for civilian casualties.

Now that’s changed. The other thing that’s changed is the Russkies, instead of gallivanting to Kiev or butting their heads on fortified defences, are doing what they do best – all the stuff they learnt from Guderian and Manstein, and then perfected in 1944. Encirclement and cauldrons, but not with panzers but masses of heavy artillery.

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Re: Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Post by Cult Icon » 01 Jun 2022 03:02

VanillaNuns wrote:
30 May 2022 18:18
As I've said before, wars are won on the battlefield, not on Twitter and Facebook so I'm very wary of believing anything from UK and US intelligence who are hardly going to consistently contradict their Ukrainian allies. If you believe the propaganda, Russia has lost 30% of their troops since March!

The western media is an echo chamber.

Once the war starts turning against Ukraine, the narrative will change. They don't report the news anymore. They just craft the story to suit their own agenda.
Agreed. The analysis by "open source intelligence" analysts on social media (and paid ones like ISW) has been generally very Ukr biased and with too much fictitious content. Although to their credit they have been helpful in creating maps, collecting information and rumor.

Ukraine has four "psychological operations" units (as of 2016, perhaps more now) that has flooded and dominated western media with selective or downright fictitious propaganda. The instrumental purpose is unclear to me except for how it has clearly shaped the information/disinformation environment and generated a lot of aid from Western countries. It, and Russian blunders have also gave a big boon to Ukrainian morale. So Ukraine is successful with the propaganda weapon and also having a vast numerical superiority in infantrymen.

ISW report 5/30 and 5/31 are just an example of this- On 5/30 they report that the Russians are massing for a big, costly battle for Severodonetsk- shaping it like a Russian strategic blunder- and on 5/31 they report that 70% of the city has fallen and then perform some analytical BS damage control. I've been reading their reports everyday since Feb 24th as they still add significant value, make graphics, and summarize things but the daily bias/made up BS does waste some of my time.

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