Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Discussions on other historical eras.
Sid Guttridge
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Jan 2023 11:34

Hi ljadw,

Flawed logic. The fact that the Kurds may not like the Turks doesn't mean they support Assad. Most Kurds everywhere seem to prefer their own state to any alternative offered by Turkey, Syria, Iraq or Iran.

Assad began the war with a total monopoly of military power. Despite this, and Russian support, he still hasn't recovered a third of national territory and half the population of the country. Estimates are that his government currently controls between 13 and 17 million people, while rebel areas still contain up to 8 million. https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/commen ... 2600_2149/)

This doesn't count 5.7 million others living as registered refugees in other Middle Eastern countries, who are presumably free to return to Assad's rule if they so choose. Nor does it include a couple of million more who have gone to Europe, who presumably could also return to Assad's Syria.

In other words, even with a monopoly of heavy weaponry and Russian support, today Asaad controls only about half Syria's population.

If Assad had all this military power AND the support of the majority of the population, this would never even have started. His own community of Alawites amount to at most 15% of the population. Some other non-Muslim minorities (including Christians) amounting to perhaps another 10% of the population support him as communities because they are scared of Muslim fundamentalism. No other community can be said to support him as a group, though doubtless there are some individuals who do.

Russia had to intervene because Assad's military casualties were as high as those of the opposition. One estimate is that by 2015 11.5% of military-age male Alawis have been killed. This implies that over a third had become casualties, as wounded tend to be several times the number of dead. His smaller loyal population base could not sustain this level of loss indefinitely. His war was likely lost until the Russians intervened.

Cheers,

Sid.

gebhk
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by gebhk » 21 Jan 2023 12:21

The fact that the Kurds may not like the Turks doesn't mean they support Assad. Most Kurds everywhere seem to prefer their own state to any alternative offered by Turkey, Syria, Iraq or Iran.
Amen to that!

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 21 Jan 2023 15:34

Sid Guttridge wrote:
21 Jan 2023 11:34
Hi ljadw,

Flawed logic. The fact that the Kurds may not like the Turks doesn't mean they support Assad. Most Kurds everywhere seem to prefer their own state to any alternative offered by Turkey, Syria, Iraq or Iran.

Assad began the war with a total monopoly of military power. Despite this, and Russian support, he still hasn't recovered a third of national territory and half the population of the country. Estimates are that his government currently controls between 13 and 17 million people, while rebel areas still contain up to 8 million. https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/commen ... 2600_2149/)

This doesn't count 5.7 million others living as registered refugees in other Middle Eastern countries, who are presumably free to return to Assad's rule if they so choose. Nor does it include a couple of million more who have gone to Europe, who presumably could also return to Assad's Syria.

In other words, even with a monopoly of heavy weaponry and Russian support, today Asaad controls only about half Syria's population.

If Assad had all this military power AND the support of the majority of the population, this would never even have started. His own community of Alawites amount to at most 15% of the population. Some other non-Muslim minorities (including Christians) amounting to perhaps another 10% of the population support him as communities because they are scared of Muslim fundamentalism. No other community can be said to support him as a group, though doubtless there are some individuals who do.

Russia had to intervene because Assad's military casualties were as high as those of the opposition. One estimate is that by 2015 11.5% of military-age male Alawis have been killed. This implies that over a third had become casualties, as wounded tend to be several times the number of dead. His smaller loyal population base could not sustain this level of loss indefinitely. His war was likely lost until the Russians intervened.

Cheers,

Sid.
The fact that the Syrian Kurds fight against the Turks result in a de facto support for Assad .
The biggest part of Syria that is not controlled by Assad is controlled by Turkey and its allies . Do not forget that Turkey supported ISIS .
The estimates from Reddit are very questionable .
If Assad had only the support of 25 % of the Syrian population, the war would be over since long with his defeat .
The Kurds do not prefer their own state to the alternatives offered by Syria and Iraq (Turkey and Iran do NOT offer any alternative )because :THE KURDS DO NOT EXIST . They have been fighting against each other since the fall of the Ottoman Empire . There was a Kurdish Civil War in Iraq between 1994 and 1998 (Source :Taylor and Francis ) There is no monolithic Kurdish nation .
Syrian Kurds accept the proposition of an autonomous region,offered by Assad .They do not want ONE Kurdish state .
At least 40 % of the Turkish Kurds live outside the ancestral Kurdish regions in Turkey . 8 Million of 20 million .
A big part of Iraqi Kurds supported Saddam , Sami Abdul-Rahman, from the Kurdish Democratic Party, was a deputy PM of Saddam in the 1970s ,the current Iraqi minister of foreign affairs ( Fuad Hussein ) is Kurdish .Thus he does not want a sovereign Kurdish state ,which is also an utopia .

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 21 Jan 2023 15:47

gebhk wrote:
21 Jan 2023 12:21
The fact that the Kurds may not like the Turks doesn't mean they support Assad. Most Kurds everywhere seem to prefer their own state to any alternative offered by Turkey, Syria, Iraq or Iran.
Amen to that!
And it is wrong :one should not believe the Kurdish propaganda .
During the Syrian Civil war ,Iranian Kurds fought against Iran , Iraqi Kurds did nothing against Iranian military transports to Syria through Iraqi Kurdistan to fight against ISIS and Syrian Kurds fought WITH the IRGC against ISIS .And the PKK ,Kurdish Hezbollah and ISIS were all recruiting in Turkish Kurdistan and fought against each other . See Foreign Affairs :The Kurds of ISIS .

gebhk
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by gebhk » 21 Jan 2023 16:26

As per, your argument has no logic. If according to you, there are no Kurds, and that these Kurds who don't exist according to you do not want independence, why is there, according to you, Kurdish propaganda that we should not believe, presumably because it contradicts your opinion?

Did the fact that Poles fought in everyman's army in WW1 and served in the governments of Prussia, Russia and Austro-Hungary somehow prove that Poles did not exist and that they did not want a Polish state? The same but perhaps more so can be said of the Ukrainians. History clearly shows that argument to be bogus. And why should a putative Kurdish state need to be an Utopia? I am sure the Kurds would be perfectly happy with a normal country of their own and have no delusions of creating an Utopia.

Sid Guttridge
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Jan 2023 17:54

Hi ljadw,

You post, "The fact that the Syrian Kurds fight against the Turks result in a de facto support for Assad." Nonsense. If gebnk and I get into an argument between ourselves here, it doesn't necessarily mean either of us support you.

You post, "The estimates from Reddit are very questionable ." Why? They may not suit your narrative, but you are offering no critique of them and no sourced alternative, so your objection has absolutely no standing.

Yes, "If Assad had only the support of 25 % of the Syrian population, the war would be over since long with his defeat." Indeed, it would have been if (1) he didn't also have a near total monopoly of weaponry and, (2) when this was not enough, Russian intervention to rescue him. Even now he only controls about half Syria's population and two thirds of its territory.

Cheers,

Sid.

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 22 Jan 2023 10:49

gebhk wrote:
21 Jan 2023 16:26
As per, your argument has no logic. If according to you, there are no Kurds, and that these Kurds who don't exist according to you do not want independence, why is there, according to you, Kurdish propaganda that we should not believe, presumably because it contradicts your opinion?

Did the fact that Poles fought in everyman's army in WW1 and served in the governments of Prussia, Russia and Austro-Hungary somehow prove that Poles did not exist and that they did not want a Polish state? The same but perhaps more so can be said of the Ukrainians. History clearly shows that argument to be bogus. And why should a putative Kurdish state need to be an Utopia? I am sure the Kurds would be perfectly happy with a normal country of their own and have no delusions of creating an Utopia.
I did not say that there are no Kurds,I said that THE Kurds do not exist .
The propaganda from Kurdish nationalists claims that there is ONE Kurdish nation and that all Kurds want ONE independent Kurdish state .
Not only is there no proof for this ,but history proves the opposite .
Kurds fight for and against ISIS,for and against Iraq,for and against Iran , they fight also against each other . 126 ethnic Kurds
for and against Syria belonging to paramilitary groups raised and paid by the Turkish state have been killed since 2015 by the PKK .
There is no proof that the Syrian Kurds want to live together with the Kurds from Turkey,Iraq,Iran in one state .
A lot of Turkish Kurds collaborate with Turkey, a lot of Iraqi Kurds collaborated with Saddam,collaborate with the present Iraqi government, a lot of Iranian Kurds collaborate with the Ayatollahs .
The PKK does not represent all Kurds .They have killed hundreds of Kurds ,accusing them of collaboration with Turkey .There is also a lot of fighting against the Barzanis .
The Kurds are divided .
For once I agree with The Conversation which titled in November 2019 :Why there is no Kurdish nation .

gebhk
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by gebhk » 22 Jan 2023 15:17

Now you are playing (faulty) semantics. 'The Kurds' and 'Kurds' is the same thing. I presume you are imputing that there is no Kurdish nation? That may be the case - hower that is not proof that there is no Kurdish people and that given the opportunity they could not form a nation. The fact that they are divided (which people isn't - especially when deprived of their own homeland?), collaborate with different regimes, even fight with each other, does not preclude them from wanting a homeland of their own and even achieving it if circumstances become favourable. The rise of Poland and, more recently Ukraina, very clearly demonstrate the possibility of such an outcome.

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 22 Jan 2023 19:08

gebhk wrote:
22 Jan 2023 15:17
Now you are playing (faulty) semantics. 'The Kurds' and 'Kurds' is the same thing. I presume you are imputing that there is no Kurdish nation? That may be the case - hower that is not proof that there is no Kurdish people and that given the opportunity they could not form a nation. The fact that they are divided (which people isn't - especially when deprived of their own homeland?), collaborate with different regimes, even fight with each other, does not preclude them from wanting a homeland of their own and even achieving it if circumstances become favourable. The rise of Poland and, more recently Ukraina, very clearly demonstrate the possibility of such an outcome.
Poland and Ukraine can not be compared to the Kurds :Europe is not the ME .
And there is no proof that Kurdish Syrians, Kurdish Turks, Kurdish Iraqi and Kurdish Iranians want to live together in one unified Kurdish state .
Do those from Syria want their own homeland, do those from Turkey do it ( most do not support the PKK),40 % do not live in Kurdish Turkey, do those from Iraq want it ,do those from Iran want it ?
The propaganda from the Kurdish diaspora said they want it ,but there is even no Kurdish government in exile .
Besides :the circumstances will never become favourable .
The Kurds in Syria consider themselves Kurds but also Syrians and they prefer a limited autonomy in Syria to the Utopia of an independent Kurdistan . The same for those in Turkey,in Iraq, in Iran .
I repeat : there is no such thing as THE Kurds.

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 22 Jan 2023 19:26

Sid Guttridge wrote:
21 Jan 2023 17:54
Hi ljadw,

You post, "The fact that the Syrian Kurds fight against the Turks result in a de facto support for Assad." Nonsense. If gebnk and I get into an argument between ourselves here, it doesn't necessarily mean either of us support you.

You post, "The estimates from Reddit are very questionable ." Why? They may not suit your narrative, but you are offering no critique of them and no sourced alternative, so your objection has absolutely no standing.

Yes, "If Assad had only the support of 25 % of the Syrian population, the war would be over since long with his defeat." Indeed, it would have been if (1) he didn't also have a near total monopoly of weaponry and, (2) when this was not enough, Russian intervention to rescue him. Even now he only controls about half Syria's population and two thirds of its territory.

Cheers,

Sid.
Syrian Kurds and Assad fight against ISIS and Turkey , thus they are allies and support each other
In WW2 Britain,the US and the USSR fought against Germany . Thus they were allies and supported each other .
About the Syrian population : there is no proof at all that the millions of Syrians who live abroad are hostile to the regime of Assad . It is even the opposite .
Assad controls much more than 50 % of the Syrians who live in Syria and the third of the population that is outside his control is occupied for a big part by the Turks and ISIS .
The figures from Reddit are under the bus :if Assad does not control the Syrian fugitives living in exile , Zelensky does not control the Ukrainian fugitives living in exile .
And the Russians did not save him : in 7 years some 60000 Russians were sent to Syria , mostly for one year, which means an average of 8000 .Most of them were non combat units : some 120 were killed in more than 7 years : an average of one KIA every three weeks .
No one believes the story that the Condor Legion saved Franco during the Spanish Civil War, it is the same for the Russians in Syria .

gebhk
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by gebhk » 22 Jan 2023 19:53

I repeat : there is no such thing as THE Kurds.
Tell it to the Kurds :lol: Given that you have just written 'the Kurds' half a dozen times, that's rich
Besides :the circumstances will never become favourable .
It is ironic that someone who regularly claims nothing can be predicted, even things that most people would say reasonably can be, feels able to predict something that really no-one can predict.
Poland and Ukraine can not be compared to the Kurds
Oh really? Why not? Hint - they can be - I just have.
And there is no proof that Kurdish Syrians, Kurdish Turks, Kurdish Iraqi and Kurdish Iranians want to live together in one unified Kurdish state .
And there is not proof that they don't either.

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 23 Jan 2023 16:19

Poland and Ukraine can not be compared to the Kurds, because
a Europe is not the ME :Kurds are not Europeans and think and act differently :even Kipling (the Tony Blair from the 20th Century ) admitted this .
b there is no Kurdish state ,while there is a Polish and Ukrainian state, thus the unification trends in Poland and Ukraine are much stronger .
Of course,the circumstances will not be favorable,, because the existence of a Kurdish state does not depend on what Kurds will,can,do ,but on what Turkey,Iraq, Iran and Syria will do and the chance that they will allow a Kurdish state is 0,00000 per cent .
They will use everything they have to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state : not only biological and chemical weapons, but also nuclear weapons ( Very soon Iran will have nuclear weapons ) and if needed,they will exterminate all Kurds .
And,, as there is no proof ,as you admit, that the Kurds in Syria,Iran,Iraq,Turkey want to live together in one unified state, this state will never exist .
But,there are countless proofs that Kurds are satisfied with the present situation and refuse to die for the Utopia of Kurdistan :
in Syria they support Assad and are satisfied with a limited autonomy
in Turkey 40 % have left Turkish Kurdistan and most are neutral in the war of the PKK against Turkey
in Iraq they remain silent ,and are satisfied with the present situation : the Iraqi foreign secretary is Kurdish
there is no general rebellion in Iranian Kurdistan .

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 23 Jan 2023 16:23

gebhk wrote:
22 Jan 2023 15:17
Now you are playing (faulty) semantics. 'The Kurds' and 'Kurds' is the same thing. I presume you are imputing that there is no Kurdish nation? That may be the case - hower that is not proof that there is no Kurdish people and that given the opportunity they could not form a nation. The fact that they are divided (which people isn't - especially when deprived of their own homeland?), collaborate with different regimes, even fight with each other, does not preclude them from wanting a homeland of their own and even achieving it if circumstances become favourable. The rise of Poland and, more recently Ukraina, very clearly demonstrate the possibility of such an outcome.
The Kurds and Kurds are two totally different things .
The Kurds is a generalization and exists only in the imagination and the desires of Kurds in the diaspora .

CogCalgary
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by CogCalgary » 23 Jan 2023 17:35

ljadw wrote:
23 Jan 2023 16:19
Poland and Ukraine can not be compared to the Kurds, because
a Europe is not the ME :Kurds are not Europeans and think and act differently :even Kipling (the Tony Blair from the 20th Century ) admitted this .
b there is no Kurdish state ,while there is a Polish and Ukrainian state, thus the unification trends in Poland and Ukraine are much stronger .
Of course,the circumstances will not be favorable,, because the existence of a Kurdish state does not depend on what Kurds will,can,do ,but on what Turkey,Iraq, Iran and Syria will do and the chance that they will allow a Kurdish state is 0,00000 per cent .
They will use everything they have to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state : not only biological and chemical weapons, but also nuclear weapons ( Very soon Iran will have nuclear weapons ) and if needed,they will exterminate all Kurds .
And,, as there is no proof ,as you admit, that the Kurds in Syria,Iran,Iraq,Turkey want to live together in one unified state, this state will never exist .
But,there are countless proofs that Kurds are satisfied with the present situation and refuse to die for the Utopia of Kurdistan :
in Syria they support Assad and are satisfied with a limited autonomy
in Turkey 40 % have left Turkish Kurdistan and most are neutral in the war of the PKK against Turkey
in Iraq they remain silent ,and are satisfied with the present situation : the Iraqi foreign secretary is Kurdish
there is no general rebellion in Iranian Kurdistan .
Very soon Iran will have nuclear weapons?For how long will they have this capability,any estimation?

ljadw
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Re: Since 1917 105 years of western blunders in the Middle east

Post by ljadw » 23 Jan 2023 21:30

They are working on far range missiles that can transport nuclear weapons . Will Israel allow this ?And if Israel tries to destroy these missiles and nuclear weapons and fails to destroy all of them , will Iran not start a nuclear war ?There are already Iranian forces in Syria,in Iraq and in Yemen . And what will do KSA ?
In September 2022 the IAEA said that it could not give assurances that Iran's nuclear program was exclusively peaceful .

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