Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Discussions on other historical eras.
User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 05 Sep 2022 14:59

This video shows a very effective HIMARS strike. Lots of SAM go up but only one intercept.
https://youtu.be/8pLzdl0mMCc

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 05 Sep 2022 15:03

Cult Icon wrote:
05 Sep 2022 14:22
Yuri wrote:
05 Sep 2022 14:12
In the absence of a background of MLRS GRAD, URAGAN and SMERCH missiles, 100% of the 12-rocket salvo of HIMARS missiles is shot down. In the presence of a background of these missiles, about 60% of the HIMARS missiles are shot down.
The problem is the cost of anti-aircraft missiles, now they are still expensive. However, there is full confidence that special (small) anti-aircraft missiles against HIMARS missiles will be manufactured. An experienced company is already in business.
By the way, when I served in the infantry in 1972, anti-aircraft gunners from our company (armed with Strela-2 MANPADS) trained by shooting down missiles launched by the legendary Katyusha (BM-13).
Interesting personal account.

Yuri it seems like the HIMARs stuff is more in the area of propaganda than of military significance. I have noticed that the Western/Russian media puts outsized attention towards the HIMARS but if there was no propaganda value they would have ignored it as 'business as usual'.

The Ukrainians could have used their Tochka U and their heavy MLRS against the same targets. If they did there would be little to rave about. The US army and marine corps have hundreds of HIMARS units. If we cared so much about Ukraine, as if it was our home ground these masses would have immediately be given instead of token quantities.

Typical prorussian delusion.HIMARS has been extremely effective but you simply ignore all the reports about it. Only HIMARS has the long range and accuracy the ukranians need. It is an extremely accurate weapon. Stupid remark about the quantities that could theoretically be sent as you would need much more ammo for them too which would be an issue.
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=dd16f2f2 ... Njgx&ntb=1

Tom Peters
Financial supporter
Posts: 838
Joined: 04 Sep 2004 21:18
Location: Augusta, GA

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom Peters » 05 Sep 2022 18:41

Yuri wrote:
05 Sep 2022 04:42

Hi,Tom.
BridgeAntonovskySkizze.jpg
I know what stressed concrete is (stressed rebar).
This is a drawing of the section of the span of the Antonovsky Bridge. The drawing will help to understand:
a) the bearing elements in the span are longitudinal beams- 4 pieces;
b) a solid concrete slab on top of the longitudinal beams is designed to evenly distribute the load on the longitudinal beams.
c) the holes in the concrete slab do not violate the bearing capacity of the entire span;
e) to stop movement along the span, it is necessary to destroy at least three of the four longitudinal beams in the span.And even on one beam it is possible to organize the passage of transport

The amount of explosive in the HIMARS MLRS rocket is not enough to destroy even one beam.
In the SMERCH MLRS or the TORNADO-S rocket, the explosive is four times larger - 96 kg. However, I believe that even the SMERCH MLRS missiles will not destroy the beam.
Here you need an aircraft bomb weighing 500 kg.
Yuri, I am unsure if we are even disagreeing at this point. Do we agree on the following points:

- A single M30A1 warhead on HIMARS is very unlikely to destroy a span,
- Only a single span appears to be damaged, likely as a deliberate policy,
- Neither side wants to destroy a pillar of the bridge at this time,
- The bridge is not being used for heavy traffic, and possibly no vehicular traffic.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
Financial supporter
Posts: 838
Joined: 04 Sep 2004 21:18
Location: Augusta, GA

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom Peters » 05 Sep 2022 18:53

Cult Icon wrote:
05 Sep 2022 14:22

Interesting personal account.

Yuri it seems like the HIMARs stuff is more in the area of propaganda than of military significance. I have noticed that the Western/Russian media puts outsized attention towards the HIMARS but if there was no propaganda value they would have ignored it as 'business as usual'.

The Ukrainians could have used their Tochka U and their heavy MLRS against the same targets. If they did there would be little to rave about. The US army and marine corps have hundreds of HIMARS units. If we cared so much about Ukraine, as if it was our home ground these masses would have immediately be given instead of token quantities.
I seriously doubt that given the observed performance of RU weapons we have seen, that Tochka or similar systems have the accuracy of HIMARS. HIMARS has been blowing up RU ammo depots pretty fiercely for some time. If the FIRMS map from Deep State Map Live is any indication

https://deepstatemap.live/en#7.75/46.673/33.522

....there isnt much RU artillery activity lately, which may indicate a non-trivial effect on RU artillery activities in general.

There is no point in giving hundreds of HIMARS systems if you dont have the crews, the spare parts, nor the ammunition in theatre.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
Financial supporter
Posts: 838
Joined: 04 Sep 2004 21:18
Location: Augusta, GA

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom Peters » 05 Sep 2022 18:59

Lets get this thread back on track to the title. How about we move other RU/UKR war discussions back to the "kissinger" thread ?

Crimean Bridge:
Its debatable if the UKR want to target this bridge. While a valid military target, its destruction might move Putin towards general mobilization. However the mere threat has forced the RU to move multiple defenses to the bridge area in response.

The bridge itself is of relatively recent construction and probably difficult to seriously damage.

Missiles: At this time, I know of no public information that indicates that UKR has any missiles that could reach the bridge. If the UKR receive Tomahawks that could change. Even then, it would have to get past the defenses.

Planes: given the air defenses, I doubt any UKR plane could make it to the bridge alive

SOF: good luck carrying enough explosives to damage the bridge, unless you happen to have a suicide bomber driving a semi truck full of explosives over the bridge.

So, as far as I can tell, the Crimean bridge is in no immediate threat for now.

Mad Dog

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 06 Sep 2022 18:52

HIMARS doing good work.
https://youtu.be/JwLJK2m6fGo

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 07 Sep 2022 07:08

Another bridge down.
https://youtu.be/qJ3aPPgmLlY

User avatar
Cult Icon
Member
Posts: 3281
Joined: 08 Apr 2014 19:00

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 07 Sep 2022 13:27

This Ukraine's progress for the counteroffensive August 29- September 7th. Basically, some villages taken mainly in the first days and then a much higher than normal amount of fire support (150 fire missions claimed by Ukraine military on 9/6th) against Kherson Oblast. They claimed 400 fire missions in the first couple of days. The Russians, after some gains got stuck as the Ukrainians poured reinforcements into the small eastern pocket.

The massing at the Kharkiv axis and Izyum are also being used, the Russians are fighting a defensive battle there too and the Ukrainians took 2 villages. Russians also re-initiated offensive operations in the Donbass and broke a little deeper into the defense-in depth around Bakhmut.

A lot of reports of Russians shifting reserves around including elements of 1st Guards Tank Army in the Kherson Oblast. This battle is still ongoing. Overall the offensive has greatly reduced Russian artillery and air offensive in the Donbass as their attention is diverted to other fronts. Since early July they have been pounding the Donbass defense-in depth with most of their fire support in Ukraine.

It is unclear if the Ukrainians are done at Kherson Oblast and have decided to shift their offensive to Izyum/Kharkiv. The Russian MOD hasn't been claiming monster kills since the first 3 days of the offensive. On 9/6th they claimed 150 Ukrainian human losses at the Kherson Oblast.

Image

User avatar
Cult Icon
Member
Posts: 3281
Joined: 08 Apr 2014 19:00

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 07 Sep 2022 19:02

The rumors about the Ukrainian assault reserve is that the Kherson group is 12000 men (late August-beginning Sept) and the Kharkiv/Izyum group is 9000 men.

The Russians have claimed to knock out much of the former.

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 08 Sep 2022 06:33

More video images on damage to bridges
https://youtu.be/yoYEZXQ6xYQ

mezsat2
Member
Posts: 213
Joined: 05 Jun 2009 12:02

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by mezsat2 » 10 Sep 2022 09:36

This is straight off defense.gov. regarding the August aid package.

"Large quantities of C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment." My conclusion from
this is Ukraine is planning to blow something up. But what? Bridges?

User avatar
Cult Icon
Member
Posts: 3281
Joined: 08 Apr 2014 19:00

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 10 Sep 2022 12:56

This attack at the Izyum Salient is the 2nd successful and most dangerous counterstrike by the Ukrainians in this war. In the spring counterstrike at Kharkiv the Russians gave up ground and then eventually wore out the Ukrainians with fire support and counterattacks. The Russians have ordered a general withdrawal to more defensible lines. This really messes up their Donbass operation as they would have to retake all this territory again.

This Izyum battle is still ongoing, this is certainly unexpected given Ukraine's bad military performance in the attack prior to this operation. Very embarrassing for the Russians. The rumors are the Izyum/Kharkiv grouping is now 50,000 men! So it appears that the Kherson Offensive was secondary to this attack.


Image

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 10 Sep 2022 14:22


Peter89
Member
Posts: 1839
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Spain

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 10 Sep 2022 22:30

Cult Icon wrote:
10 Sep 2022 12:56
This attack at the Izyum Salient is the 2nd successful and most dangerous counterstrike by the Ukrainians in this war. In the spring counterstrike at Kharkiv the Russians gave up ground and then eventually wore out the Ukrainians with fire support and counterattacks. The Russians have ordered a general withdrawal to more defensible lines. This really messes up their Donbass operation as they would have to retake all this territory again.

This Izyum battle is still ongoing, this is certainly unexpected given Ukraine's bad military performance in the attack prior to this operation. Very embarrassing for the Russians. The rumors are the Izyum/Kharkiv grouping is now 50,000 men! So it appears that the Kherson Offensive was secondary to this attack.


Image
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 2436
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 11 Sep 2022 08:04

Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
Cult Icon wrote:
10 Sep 2022 12:56
This attack at the Izyum Salient is the 2nd successful and most dangerous counterstrike by the Ukrainians in this war. In the spring counterstrike at Kharkiv the Russians gave up ground and then eventually wore out the Ukrainians with fire support and counterattacks. The Russians have ordered a general withdrawal to more defensible lines. This really messes up their Donbass operation as they would have to retake all this territory again.

This Izyum battle is still ongoing, this is certainly unexpected given Ukraine's bad military performance in the attack prior to this operation. Very embarrassing for the Russians. The rumors are the Izyum/Kharkiv grouping is now 50,000 men! So it appears that the Kherson Offensive was secondary to this attack.


Image
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
You are in denial. The Russians have been soundly defeated and the ukrainian army is liberating Ukrainian territory that the russian occupied against international law. You are far out on a limb when you suppose russianspeakers want to live under putins boot.

Return to “Other eras”