Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

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Peter89
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 11 Sep 2022 08:54

Aida1 wrote:
11 Sep 2022 08:04
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
Cult Icon wrote:
10 Sep 2022 12:56
This attack at the Izyum Salient is the 2nd successful and most dangerous counterstrike by the Ukrainians in this war. In the spring counterstrike at Kharkiv the Russians gave up ground and then eventually wore out the Ukrainians with fire support and counterattacks. The Russians have ordered a general withdrawal to more defensible lines. This really messes up their Donbass operation as they would have to retake all this territory again.

This Izyum battle is still ongoing, this is certainly unexpected given Ukraine's bad military performance in the attack prior to this operation. Very embarrassing for the Russians. The rumors are the Izyum/Kharkiv grouping is now 50,000 men! So it appears that the Kherson Offensive was secondary to this attack.


Image
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
You are in denial. The Russians have been soundly defeated and the ukrainian army is liberating Ukrainian territory that the russian occupied against international law. You are far out on a limb when you suppose russianspeakers want to live under putins boot.
Let's ask them then, and if I was wrong, I'll admit it.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 11 Sep 2022 14:31

Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.

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Aida1
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 11 Sep 2022 14:52

Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
How funny that just shelling suddenly does not seem to be the thing to do anymore😂😂. Clearly you have great reluctance in admitting that the russian army is being outfought by the Ukrainians.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom Peters » 11 Sep 2022 15:02

It now appears that all of the Kharkov district, W of the Oskil (?) river will be Russian-free shortly. (Deep State Map live).

The Russians dont have much left to commit. The few (15000 or so ?) forces in the East, even if committed, wont make a difference. The RU 3rd Corps is nowhere to be seen. The RU forces N of the Dnepr near Kherson are still being starved of supplies.

What a humiliation for the RU MOD.

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Aida1
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 11 Sep 2022 15:18


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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 11 Sep 2022 15:41

No orderly retreat. Just a rout with high loss of equipment.
https://youtu.be/XBA3O2mORvI

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Hikari
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 12 Sep 2022 15:37

Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
Cult Icon wrote:
10 Sep 2022 12:56
This attack at the Izyum Salient is the 2nd successful and most dangerous counterstrike by the Ukrainians in this war. In the spring counterstrike at Kharkiv the Russians gave up ground and then eventually wore out the Ukrainians with fire support and counterattacks. The Russians have ordered a general withdrawal to more defensible lines. This really messes up their Donbass operation as they would have to retake all this territory again.

This Izyum battle is still ongoing, this is certainly unexpected given Ukraine's bad military performance in the attack prior to this operation. Very embarrassing for the Russians. The rumors are the Izyum/Kharkiv grouping is now 50,000 men! So it appears that the Kherson Offensive was secondary to this attack.


Image
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
Somewhat curious as to why you think Ukraine is an authoritarian government, In fact as far as I know authoritarian governments generally prefer to support Russia., (I live in China), whenever I turn on a news program on TV, the political propaganda/news position shown there is a pro-Russian position same as north Korea or other west asia states.
Even if we are not talking about the form of government, there is no reason to think that the Russian-speaking population is totally against the Ukrainian government and there is no reason for us to accept the "Nazi Ukraine" propaganda of Putin's regime.

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Hikari
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 12 Sep 2022 15:40

Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
surprisingly to find that the Chinese meme had invaded here. 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O

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Hikari
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 12 Sep 2022 15:47

Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.

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Yuri
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Yuri » 12 Sep 2022 17:48

Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47
Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
All sorts of analogies are limp.
However, if you use it, then in this case Mr. Hikari's analogy is correct.

Peter89
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 12 Sep 2022 18:03

Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:37
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
Cult Icon wrote:
10 Sep 2022 12:56
This attack at the Izyum Salient is the 2nd successful and most dangerous counterstrike by the Ukrainians in this war. In the spring counterstrike at Kharkiv the Russians gave up ground and then eventually wore out the Ukrainians with fire support and counterattacks. The Russians have ordered a general withdrawal to more defensible lines. This really messes up their Donbass operation as they would have to retake all this territory again.

This Izyum battle is still ongoing, this is certainly unexpected given Ukraine's bad military performance in the attack prior to this operation. Very embarrassing for the Russians. The rumors are the Izyum/Kharkiv grouping is now 50,000 men! So it appears that the Kherson Offensive was secondary to this attack.


Image
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
Somewhat curious as to why you think Ukraine is an authoritarian government, In fact as far as I know authoritarian governments generally prefer to support Russia., (I live in China), whenever I turn on a news program on TV, the political propaganda/news position shown there is a pro-Russian position same as north Korea or other west asia states.
Even if we are not talking about the form of government, there is no reason to think that the Russian-speaking population is totally against the Ukrainian government and there is no reason for us to accept the "Nazi Ukraine" propaganda of Putin's regime.
Well, this has been an interesting topic for me for a long time.

For starters, I do not believe that national identity, or identity in general can be defined by the language(s) spoken alone.

For example, the people in Ireland and Scotland pretty generally speak English, which is quite an astonishing fact given their historical relations.

It is also possible that some people who speak Russian in Ukraine do not identify themselves as "Russians", but as "Ukrainians" who speak Russian. Zelenskiy spoke Russian as a first language as well.

For me, having born into an ethnic German family in Hungary, culture and community traditions define identity much more precise than language. But I do not deny or diminish the respective significance of language, genetics or religion/ideology either. I simply think that most people's identities are defined by culture and community rather than these secondary aspects.

However, when I say that Ukraine oppresses non-Ukrainian identities in Ukraine, I think of the minority rights there. A multiethnic, Slavic state born in a chaotic cascade of events - such as Ukraine - always breaks up in time. And usually in a bloodbath. When Ukraine was attacked in 2014 and some areas ceded, it became more and more violent against its remaining minorities. You can observe the same things in many other countries from the XX. century; when Hungary was torn apart in 1920, the remaining minorities (Germans and Jews) were subjected to persecution. When Yugoslavia was torn apart, Hungarians and Albanians were subjected to insults and attacks of every form.

In my opinion, the state is for the people and NOT the other way around.

Thus: if someone with a Russian identity in Ukraine feels that they want to live in a country called Ukraine, it is totally acceptable, given it might be a better choice than Putin's Russia. If someone with a Hungarian, Romanian or Polish identity wants to live in Ukraine instead of the mother countries of their respective nations, I can accept it as well. However, Ukraine started to oppress minority rights and had little to no consideration of its minorities. And also, there is no fail safe mechanisms that would protect minority rights in Ukraine. Thus, it is an oppressive state that wants to annihilate its minorities in a cultural sense. This is something I would never support - but that does not mean I support Putin's war of aggression either.

The Nazi-propaganda is of course bullshit, even though Ukraine had some neonazi paramilitary forces and certainly, war and nationalism do produce extremists and groups of extremists.

If Ukraine really wants to walk the European way, it has to show its benevolence towards its minorities and neighbours. It has to provide guarantees that freshly awaken Ukrainian nationalism does not threaten the minorities on Ukraine's western peripheries. Given how much help Ukraine received lately, it is the very minimum.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 12 Sep 2022 18:25

Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47

We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
This comparison is hinged around the repeated 'offensives', particularly against the Kherson Oblast that promised big but kept on failing.

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Aida1
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 12 Sep 2022 19:23

Cult Icon wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:25
Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47

We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
This comparison is hinged around the repeated 'offensives', particularly against the Kherson Oblast that promised big but kept on failing.
And it wrongfooted the russian army which is not in a good position around Kherson either.

Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 12 Sep 2022 19:57

Peter89 wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:03
When Ukraine was attacked in 2014 and some areas ceded, it became more and more violent against its remaining minorities.
Do you have any evidence to back that statement up?
Peter89 wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:03
However, Ukraine started to oppress minority rights and had little to no consideration of its minorities. And also, there is no fail safe mechanisms that would protect minority rights in Ukraine. Thus, it is an oppressive state that wants to annihilate its minorities in a cultural sense.
Or any of that?
Peter89 wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:03
If Ukraine really wants to walk the European way, it has to show its benevolence towards its minorities and neighbours
To their neighbours?

Regards

Tom

Peter89
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 13 Sep 2022 07:21

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
12 Sep 2022 19:57
Peter89 wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:03
When Ukraine was attacked in 2014 and some areas ceded, it became more and more violent against its remaining minorities.
Do you have any evidence to back that statement up?
Yes, please do the report of the Venice Commission.
https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/doc ... 2019)032-e
Tom from Cornwall wrote:
12 Sep 2022 19:57
Peter89 wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:03
However, Ukraine started to oppress minority rights and had little to no consideration of its minorities. And also, there is no fail safe mechanisms that would protect minority rights in Ukraine. Thus, it is an oppressive state that wants to annihilate its minorities in a cultural sense.
Or any of that?
Did you read the said law? How Beregszász or Munkács was tried to be assimilated, "occupied" or "colonized" by the Hungarian state? It is Ukraine that got areas like Kárpátalja and Crimea where native people lived with distinct cultures. If you want, I can provide you countless protests by teachers, artists, politicians, etc. against the oppression (not just Russians).
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2704-19#Text

This law alone goes against everything that the EU stands for. It should have been abolished as a prerequisite for any help. And the problem is that the de facto extreme nationalism is even worse than this law.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:
12 Sep 2022 19:57
Peter89 wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:03
If Ukraine really wants to walk the European way, it has to show its benevolence towards its minorities and neighbours
To their neighbours?

Regards

Tom
Well obviously they can't do that now to the Russians, but Russia is not Ukraine's only neighbour and Russian is not the only minority there.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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