Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

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Hikari
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 13 Sep 2022 10:04

Cult Icon wrote:
12 Sep 2022 18:25
Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47

We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
This comparison is hinged around the repeated 'offensives', particularly against the Kherson Oblast that promised big but kept on failing.
I do think it's necessary to wait a bit longer and think about the pointless offensive the Red Army launched against the Central Army Group in the winter of 43/44 .... And then what happened the following summer.
With the current recapture of Isjum by Ukrainian troops, Putin is being reduced to a clownish image even on the most pro-Russian Chinese Internet.(Even though Chiang Kai-shek is currently infamous on the Chinese Internet because CCP ideological propaganda, he is still considered a far better leader than Putin.)
Image
In addition, as far as I know, Chiang Kai-shek did not actually have much "foreign aid", compared to the SU and Britain, China was basically isolated, the so-called Hump Route and the NRAs armed by the Allies in India were too weak to reach the needs to resist IJA, the Chinese army conducted almost all defensive operations, and there was basicily no counterattack.
In addition, the U.S. arms embargo imposed on the KMT during the Civil War from 1946 to 1949 made it even more impossible for them to achieve real equipment superiority in the Civil War.
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Hikari
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 13 Sep 2022 10:17

Yuri wrote:
12 Sep 2022 17:48
Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47
Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
All sorts of analogies are limp.
However, if you use it, then in this case Mr. Hikari's analogy is correct.
While this may be a bit off-topic, but I'm a bit curious what the Russians you know think of Igor Strelkov and his various military/political commentaries?
There are few people on the Chinese internet who copy and carry his military commentary from VK and translate to Chinese as a good pro-Russian sources. But basically all of them simultaneously express contempt for his political views.
Regarding blow up the Kerch Causeway, it seems that now it still does not seem feasible for Ukraine to bomb it? But Ukraine seems to be increasing its long range attacks on military targets (airfeilds, navy target, power station) in Crimea. 8O

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 13 Sep 2022 13:38

Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:04

I do think it's necessary to wait a bit longer and think about the pointless offensive the Red Army launched against the Central Army Group in the winter of 43/44 .... And then what happened the following summer.
The Russians have been rebuilding their army since July and winded down their operations and presence in the frontline. The Kharkiv/Izyum attacks come at a time where they are at their low point, fairly complacent. Besides 2/3rds of their units in the rear, much of the army that fought in the spring/summer are in Russia, presumably rebuilding with the inflow of new Russian troops.

I could compile of list of veteran Russian units in Russian interior, it is literally a list of their best units.

Eventually these forces will come back to the Ukraine. I have predicted sometime in Sept-Nov over the summer.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 13 Sep 2022 15:53

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 13:38
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:04

I do think it's necessary to wait a bit longer and think about the pointless offensive the Red Army launched against the Central Army Group in the winter of 43/44 .... And then what happened the following summer.
The Russians have been rebuilding their army since July and winded down their operations and presence in the frontline. The Kharkiv/Izyum attacks come at a time where they are at their low point, fairly complacent. Besides 2/3rds of their units in the rear, much of the army that fought in the spring/summer are in Russia, presumably rebuilding with the inflow of new Russian troops.

I could compile of list of veteran Russian units in Russian interior, it is literally a list of their best units.

Eventually these forces will come back to the Ukraine. I have predicted sometime in Sept-Nov over the summer.
The usual prorussian spin that is not credible.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 13 Sep 2022 16:05

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 13:38
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:04

I do think it's necessary to wait a bit longer and think about the pointless offensive the Red Army launched against the Central Army Group in the winter of 43/44 .... And then what happened the following summer.
The Russians have been rebuilding their army since July and winded down their operations and presence in the frontline. The Kharkiv/Izyum attacks come at a time where they are at their low point, fairly complacent. Besides 2/3rds of their units in the rear, much of the army that fought in the spring/summer are in Russia, presumably rebuilding with the inflow of new Russian troops.

I could compile of list of veteran Russian units in Russian interior, it is literally a list of their best units.

Eventually these forces will come back to the Ukraine. I have predicted sometime in Sept-Nov over the summer.
Can you please provide their current OOB?
And, I still think this (Russian troops pulling most of their forces home) is too unlikely, not to mention that it's a suicidal, unconscionable deployment.
I am currently observing that Russian TV stations and official information are doing their best to cover up the severity of this defeat.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 13 Sep 2022 16:13

Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 16:05

Can you please provide their current OOB?
And, I still think this (Russian troops pulling most of their forces home) is too unlikely, not to mention that it's a suicidal, unconscionable deployment.
I am currently observing that Russian TV stations and official information are doing their best to cover up the severity of this defeat.
I posted their OOB for 8/14. Look at my posting history. I covered every region with units up front, second echelon, and the rear area. The Russians are rotating units throughout this war. So what we have here is a diverse mixture of various formations. Most of their primary assault units- with vintage names- are not in Ukraine now. It looks to me that they brought in a diverse mix of formations from their military to replace them, and they are concentrated in the rear areas.

The only thing I didn't do for 8/14 yet is Russian units in the interior.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Cult Icon » 13 Sep 2022 16:17

Likewise, you can say that Western/Ukrainian sources are exaggerating the severity of this defeat. Since their audience lack contextual and operational knowledge it is easy to do so.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Aida1 » 13 Sep 2022 16:50

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 16:17
Likewise, you can say that Western/Ukrainian sources are exaggerating the severity of this defeat. Since their audience lack contextual and operational knowledge it is easy to do so.
You really have a big ego, thinking you know better than any real military expert. And your prorussian bias makes you disbelieve anything that comes from free western media.

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 13 Sep 2022 19:59

Peter89 wrote:
13 Sep 2022 07:21
Yes, please do the report of the Venice Commission.
Peter,

Many thanks for posting up that link. An interesting read - I'm not in the legal profession but I did note that there is nothing in that report which supports your statement that since 2014 Ukraine became "more violent against its remaining minorities".

Do you have evidence of the "violence"? Or, indeed, that Ukraine is "an oppressive state that wants to annihilate its minorities in a cultural sense". Do you have evidence of a desire for "annihilation"?

Regards

Tom

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 14 Sep 2022 05:21

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
13 Sep 2022 19:59
Peter89 wrote:
13 Sep 2022 07:21
Yes, please do the report of the Venice Commission.
Peter,

Many thanks for posting up that link. An interesting read - I'm not in the legal profession but I did note that there is nothing in that report which supports your statement that since 2014 Ukraine became "more violent against its remaining minorities".

Do you have evidence of the "violence"? Or, indeed, that Ukraine is "an oppressive state that wants to annihilate its minorities in a cultural sense". Do you have evidence of a desire for "annihilation"?

Regards

Tom
Hello Tom,

The VC report is focusing on the effects of the language law which aims the cultural annihilation of the minorities. By denying the chance to use your own language in every level of public life, even in areas where Ukrainians are a minority, it will soon result what the preamble wants: Ukraine will be a country where only Ukrainaian is spoken.

This is in stark contrast with Slovenia, which grants 1 MEP seat for its autochton nationalities (Hungarian and Italian), plus equal rights and cultural protection; as well as state institutions to implement regulations and legislations when it concerns their minorities: https://www.gov.si/en/state-authorities ... inorities/

In the de facto reality, if you go to Lendva cultural center to have a coffee, the Slovenian waitress smiles on you and tries her best Hungarian while serving you. It is now forbidden to speak Hungarian in public institutions in Ungvár. As a result of these laws, the number of nationalist Slovenian attacks on Hungarians is exactly 0. (And Hungary annexed this territory in 1941 too, so it is not a valid argument.)

Why can't we ask the dear leader Zelenskiy to clean his country from oppressive nationalism?

For the increasing violence:

https://karpathir.com/2020/12/14/ujabb- ... terfalvan/

The central office of the Kárpátaljai Magyar Kulturális Szövetség (KMKSZ) / Hungarian Cultural Association of Kárpátalja attacked and burned:
https://cdn.nwmgroups.hu/s/img/i/1802/2 ... &h=256&t=4

Over 400 anti-Hungarian atrocities were recorded between 2014-2018.
https://youtu.be/--CGvpz3LAo
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 14 Sep 2022 05:29

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 13:38
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:04

I do think it's necessary to wait a bit longer and think about the pointless offensive the Red Army launched against the Central Army Group in the winter of 43/44 .... And then what happened the following summer.
The Russians have been rebuilding their army since July and winded down their operations and presence in the frontline. The Kharkiv/Izyum attacks come at a time where they are at their low point, fairly complacent. Besides 2/3rds of their units in the rear, much of the army that fought in the spring/summer are in Russia, presumably rebuilding with the inflow of new Russian troops.

I could compile of list of veteran Russian units in Russian interior, it is literally a list of their best units.

Eventually these forces will come back to the Ukraine. I have predicted sometime in Sept-Nov over the summer.
To mobilize a unit and send it into the battle requires magnitudes more resources and organization than keeping it quartered near a supply base / logistical hub.

A Russian politician said a few days ago that it more and more looks like it is either has to be a negotiation or an all-out attack; otherwise the conflict might last forever.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

mezsat2
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by mezsat2 » 14 Sep 2022 09:36

Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:17
Yuri wrote:
12 Sep 2022 17:48
Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47
Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31
Peter89 wrote:
10 Sep 2022 22:30
If the Ukrainian offensive does not have a second echelon to force a breakthrough on the strategic level, this might only prove to be an action to convince the countries supplying Ukraine already to supply her more; but the strategic situation will not change.

Besides, as Ukrainian armies enter into territories populated mostly by ethnic Russians, they will not be welcomed as liberators. And more importantly: the NATO will support an oppressive government yet again.
I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
All sorts of analogies are limp.
However, if you use it, then in this case Mr. Hikari's analogy is correct.
While this may be a bit off-topic, but I'm a bit curious what the Russians you know think of Igor Strelkov and his various military/political commentaries?
There are few people on the Chinese internet who copy and carry his military commentary from VK and translate to Chinese as a good pro-Russian sources. But basically all of them simultaneously express contempt for his political views.
Regarding blow up the Kerch Causeway, it seems that now it still does not seem feasible for Ukraine to bomb it? But Ukraine seems to be increasing its long range attacks on military targets (airfeilds, navy target, power station) in Crimea. 8O
I find it strange that no one has commented on the meeting between Xi and Putin at Samarkand this week. My feeling is a lot of this discussion will be about backfilling all the ordnance which North Korea will be supplying to his Siberian reinforcements. Putin will keep giving them cheap oil and gas and China will restock N. Korea's arsenal. Just a guess.

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Hikari
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Hikari » 14 Sep 2022 16:59

mezsat2 wrote:
14 Sep 2022 09:36
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:17
Yuri wrote:
12 Sep 2022 17:48
Hikari wrote:
12 Sep 2022 15:47
Cult Icon wrote:
11 Sep 2022 14:31


I have seen some Chinese commentary that compare Zelensky/Ukraine to Chiang Kai-Shek/Chinese Nationalists, the strategy is heavily hinged on Western aid rather than organic military logic.

It's looking like the Russians have been too complacent with the Ukrainians thinking that they can spend months with limited operations and maximum shelling. They would have to escalate their commitment in this war it seems. They ran military exercises with portions of the other 1/3rd of their army recently. (Vostok) And most of the air force is not committed in the SMO.
We Chinese generally compare Chiang Kai-shek's government with Putin's.
All sorts of analogies are limp.
However, if you use it, then in this case Mr. Hikari's analogy is correct.
While this may be a bit off-topic, but I'm a bit curious what the Russians you know think of Igor Strelkov and his various military/political commentaries?
There are few people on the Chinese internet who copy and carry his military commentary from VK and translate to Chinese as a good pro-Russian sources. But basically all of them simultaneously express contempt for his political views.
Regarding blow up the Kerch Causeway, it seems that now it still does not seem feasible for Ukraine to bomb it? But Ukraine seems to be increasing its long range attacks on military targets (airfeilds, navy target, power station) in Crimea. 8O
I find it strange that no one has commented on the meeting between Xi and Putin at Samarkand this week. My feeling is a lot of this discussion will be about backfilling all the ordnance which North Korea will be supplying to his Siberian reinforcements. Putin will keep giving them cheap oil and gas and China will restock N. Korea's arsenal. Just a guess.
I doubt very much that North Korea has that capability.
There is so little reliable information from Chinese political news. There are absolutely no sources of credibility.

Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 14 Sep 2022 18:13

Peter,

Thanks for taking the time to post up some links. I was inspired enough to do a bit of googling and found this article which was interesting and balanced - jeez, it’s complicated!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/wor ... e-war.html

Clearly I think it is important for Ukraine to protect its minorities, just like I think that is important in any country. I also think that national sovereignty is important especially in light of current events. I’m just not sure that hysterical language like “atrocities” or “cultural annihilation” are particularly useful in this context especially when it is clear that Russian forces are carrying out atrocities and attempting cultural annihilation in Ukraine more broadly.

Hopefully there will be brighter times ahead for all concerned and more coffee served by pleasant waitresses or waiters.

Regards

Tom

Peter89
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Re: Blowing the Kerch Causeway?

Post by Peter89 » 16 Sep 2022 13:11

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
14 Sep 2022 18:13
Peter,

Thanks for taking the time to post up some links. I was inspired enough to do a bit of googling and found this article which was interesting and balanced - jeez, it’s complicated!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/16/wor ... e-war.html

Clearly I think it is important for Ukraine to protect its minorities, just like I think that is important in any country. I also think that national sovereignty is important especially in light of current events. I’m just not sure that hysterical language like “atrocities” or “cultural annihilation” are particularly useful in this context especially when it is clear that Russian forces are carrying out atrocities and attempting cultural annihilation in Ukraine more broadly.

Hopefully there will be brighter times ahead for all concerned and more coffee served by pleasant waitresses or waiters.

Regards

Tom
Hello Tom,

I did not intent to be hysterical in any sense. If a multiethnic state pushes through legislations that aim a unicultural population, we can call it whatever we want, it is what it is: an oppressive state that wants to annihilate its minority cultures. You saw the burnt building, the public hate speeches and such; we can call it whatever we want, but it is what it is: atrocious attacks on minorities.

I am not saying or implying that Ukrainian misdeeds mitigate or justify what Russia is doing in Ukraine. What I point out is that Ukraine is not complying with EU standards and that EU supplies a country that is oppressive and ruled by organized crime.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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