news from Russo-Ukraine Front

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 23 Jan 2023 22:37

about half of 'Russian' casualties in this war are not of the original Russian federation but actually 'former' Ukrainians and PMCs of the four occupied territories.

So if you believe that the Russians took 100,000 casualties or 150,000 about half of them are actually 'Ukrainian' depending on what you think.

So that sum should be Added that to the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian casualties.

So actual Russian federation (original) is 50,000 casualties or 75,000.

Also Ukraine lost some 8 million people, and a large number relocated to Russia instead of the EU so for Russia that should balance out to a net gain in population vs the outflows.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Peter89 » 23 Jan 2023 23:11

Cult Icon wrote:
23 Jan 2023 22:37
about half of 'Russian' casualties in this war are not of the original Russian federation but actually 'former' Ukrainians and PMCs of the four occupied territories.

So if you believe that the Russians took 100,000 casualties or 150,000 about half of them are actually 'Ukrainian' depending on what you think.

So that sum should be Added that to the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian casualties.

So actual Russian federation (original) is 50,000 casualties or 75,000.

Also Ukraine lost some 8 million people, and a large number relocated to Russia instead of the EU so for Russia that should balance out to a net gain in population vs the outflows.
Those seem to be very rough guesstimates. The Ukrainian emigration has started in 2014 and from that point on it is very hard to distinguish who's Russian and Ukrainian; who fled where and why. War casualties - although terrible to speak of to begin with - are still a small percentage of the migration of people. So far the ratio is about 1:100 dead:migrating. The abuse of civilians from both sides is criminal. Even though Russia is the main culprit here, Ukraine does not handle all of its civilians equally, so it has a serious responsibility.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 23 Jan 2023 23:12

and, Russia gained the population, oil & gas, lands, and mineral deposits of southern/east Ukraine.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 23 Jan 2023 23:15

Peter89 wrote:
23 Jan 2023 23:11
Those seem to be very rough guesstimates. The Ukrainian emigration has started in 2014 and from that point on it is very hard to distinguish who's Russian and Ukrainian; who fled where and why. War casualties - although terrible to speak of to begin with - are still a small percentage of the migration of people. So far the ratio is about 1:100 dead:migrating. The abuse of civilians from both sides is criminal. Even though Russia is the main culprit here, Ukraine does not handle all of its civilians equally, so it has a serious responsibility.
Basically Russia conscripts/recruits 'former Ukrainians' in the 4 occupied provinces and have used them as the primary infantry force in the war.

Compared to the 'former Ukrainians' and 'PMC' they are much more defensive and sparing of the use of their army and reservist troops. The army/reservists are mainly concentrated North and South (defensive), while the Donbass is PMC and separatists. (on the offensive all the time).

So former Ukrainians and PMC are the key cannon fodder for the Russian army.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Peter89 » 23 Jan 2023 23:23

Cult Icon wrote:
23 Jan 2023 23:15
Peter89 wrote:
23 Jan 2023 23:11
Those seem to be very rough guesstimates. The Ukrainian emigration has started in 2014 and from that point on it is very hard to distinguish who's Russian and Ukrainian; who fled where and why. War casualties - although terrible to speak of to begin with - are still a small percentage of the migration of people. So far the ratio is about 1:100 dead:migrating. The abuse of civilians from both sides is criminal. Even though Russia is the main culprit here, Ukraine does not handle all of its civilians equally, so it has a serious responsibility.
Basically Russia conscripts/recruits 'former Ukrainians' in the 4 occupied provinces and have used them as the primary infantry force in the war.

Compared to the 'former Ukrainians' and 'PMC' they are much more defensive and sparing of the use of their army and reservist troops. The army/reservists are mainly concentrated North and South (defensive), while the Donbass is PMC and separatists. (on the offensive all the time).

So former Ukrainians and PMC are the key cannon fodder for the Russian army.
Maybe. But we don't really know how many of those soldiers are Ukrainians and how many are ethnic Russians who lived in pre-2014 Ukraine.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 23 Jan 2023 23:30

Michael Kenny wrote:
23 Jan 2023 20:46
Tom Peters wrote:
23 Jan 2023 20:32
The damage to the RU economy is far worse. Loss of massive # of young people from casualties and fleeing, devastated civ. economy, loss of foreign markets and investors, and a low price of oil are going to wreak havoc for some time.
The effect of the war on Western economies has been equally devastating but no one seems to mention that. There are no winners.
The western economies are far bigger. Economically, this is not even a contest.

Yet we agree. There are no winners in here, no matter what happens. The global economy will take years to recover.

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 23 Jan 2023 23:33

Cult Icon wrote:
23 Jan 2023 22:37
about half of 'Russian' casualties in this war are not of the original Russian federation but actually 'former' Ukrainians and PMCs of the four occupied territories.
Prove it. Show us some data we can all believe. Back it up, or shut up.

Oh, and last I checked, Wagner forces were, you know...Russians. Did you not know that ?

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Jan 2023 01:01

Tom Peters wrote:
23 Jan 2023 23:30

The global economy will take years to recover.

Mad Dog
Probably not, very good article here https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/19/ru ... pe-energy/ on the likely complete failure for Russia in the economic war.
Basically the global economy has almost already replaced its need of Russian fossil fuels - which sales of supply most of the Russian governments revenues.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Jan 2023 01:42

Very informative Twitter thread, certainly compared to the russian propaganda bilge pumped out by a certain poster here:

https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status ... 2988370945

"How Russia's tactics have changed since the beginning of the war - 4 strategies of the Russian command 1/"

Image

Image

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by mezsat2 » 24 Jan 2023 02:22

Regardless of the tactics employed by the Kremlin, they are doomed to fail. Every escalation they employ
is met by an equal or greater escalation by NATO. Although, it's not just NATO anymore. Countries around
the globe are pouring supplies and weapons into Ukraine,

Who will Putin nuke first? The USA? England? Germany? France? Netherlands? Portugal? Greece? Cyprus?
Mexico? Japan? Nuke all of them at the same time?

Ukraine is not, and never will be, part of Russia. Different language and they still want revenge for what
Stalin did to them.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Michael Kenny » 24 Jan 2023 04:14

Gooner1 wrote:
24 Jan 2023 01:01
.
Basically the global economy has......................
I think you mean 'Western economies'. Russia is still a major supplier outside of that bubble.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 04:30

Wagner has sealed off the Siversk-Bakhmut ground communications in the North.

In the south Wagner is trying to swing further south to cut off the T0504. They made advances towards Chasiv Yar

It appears that the Russian command wants Wagner to just sit on top of the supply roads until the Bakhmut garrison leaves.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 04:36

Russian units claimed by Russian sources for the Jan 20th attack towards Orikhiv, on a 50KM front. Except for the DPR, these units are likely filled with reservists. approx 21 infantry battalions:

429th motorized rifle regiment

125th rifle regiment (DPR)

129th rifle regiment (DPR)

1430 motorized rifle regiment

70th motorized rifle regiment

291st motorized rifle regiment

503rd motorized rifle regiment

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 06:08

Ukrainian claims of Russian strategic offensive pushed from "Jan -March 2023" to "spring or early summer".

I thought the same last year, they probably exaggerated to pressure the West for equipment deliveries.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ry-23-2023

"Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months. Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky stated on January 20 that the spring and early summer of 2023 will be decisive in the war and confirmed that the GUR has observed indicators that Russian troops are regrouping in preparation for a “big offensive” in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts."

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 24 Jan 2023 12:28

mezsat2 wrote:
24 Jan 2023 02:22
Regardless of the tactics employed by the Kremlin, they are doomed to fail. Every escalation they employ
is met by an equal or greater escalation by NATO. Although, it's not just NATO anymore. Countries around
the globe are pouring supplies and weapons into Ukraine,

Who will Putin nuke first? The USA? England? Germany? France? Netherlands? Portugal? Greece? Cyprus?
Mexico? Japan? Nuke all of them at the same time?

Ukraine is not, and never will be, part of Russia. Different language and they still want revenge for what
Stalin did to them.
'' Çountries around the world '' meaningless big exaggeration .
The truth is that most countries are not interested in this war and tamper with their own business .

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