news from Russo-Ukraine Front

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 13 Sep 2022 12:39

Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:22
In fact, I don't think the Russian army can be replenished with either equipment or manpower, and expanding the size of the army is even more impossible (given the long training cycle for NCOs and more senior officers)
This is factually incorrect, as they are in the process of doing for months with a national wide-recruiting drive from trained conscripts, reservists, and volunteers. They have been rebuilding their army. Putin increased the size of their army by 132,000 men (target number).

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Aida1 » 13 Sep 2022 15:53

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 12:39
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:22
In fact, I don't think the Russian army can be replenished with either equipment or manpower, and expanding the size of the army is even more impossible (given the long training cycle for NCOs and more senior officers)
This is factually incorrect, as they are in the process of doing for months with a national wide-recruiting drive from trained conscripts, reservists, and volunteers. They have been rebuilding their army. Putin increased the size of their army by 132,000 men (target number).
Wishful thinking as always.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Hikari » 13 Sep 2022 16:15

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 12:39
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 10:22
In fact, I don't think the Russian army can be replenished with either equipment or manpower, and expanding the size of the army is even more impossible (given the long training cycle for NCOs and more senior officers)
This is factually incorrect, as they are in the process of doing for months with a national wide-recruiting drive from trained conscripts, reservists, and volunteers. They have been rebuilding their army. Putin increased the size of their army by 132,000 men (target number).
Again, it won't be hard for Russia to just get some men into army, but that doesn't mean they can have a reasonable team of NCOs and other adequate and qualified senior command staff - it takes years to learn, train, and enough experience, which is what can call mobilization.
The Russian army no longer has a de facto Soviet-era mobilization system after the military reforms of the new century, and officers at all levels who were laid off from the army need to be retrained.If it was just a supplemental manpower that would be fine, but expanding army?

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Aida1 » 13 Sep 2022 18:50

How nice of the russian army to leave all that material behind.
https://youtu.be/wT_8HXAHZXE
https://youtu.be/PnbKM06Sg_M

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 13 Sep 2022 21:28

Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 16:15

Again, it won't be hard for Russia to just get some men into army, but that doesn't mean they can have a reasonable team of NCOs and other adequate and qualified senior command staff - it takes years to learn, train, and enough experience, which is what can call mobilization.
The Russian army no longer has a de facto Soviet-era mobilization system after the military reforms of the new century, and officers at all levels who were laid off from the army need to be retrained.If it was just a supplemental manpower that would be fine, but expanding army?
The Russians just deployed a new formation, "3rd Army Corps", mostly composed of reservists and volunteers. Russia is not short of equipment or ammunition, they retain superiority over NATO/Ukraine.

I think they will be using the new recruits gathered in recent months to refill if not expand the original small infantry ranks of their units. As they integrate these volunteer conscripts, reservists, and general volunteers, the old units from Spring-Summer were reappear in the Ukraine. Many units have been gone for months. It is unknown when they were be made operational again.

Russian units are not combined arms outfits, they are triple or double double drone-artillery batteries with a tank company (or battalion) and perhaps 200-odd IFV mounted infantry. A possibility is that they will increase the size of the inadequate infantry component. who knows?

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 14 Sep 2022 03:20

Aida1 wrote:
13 Sep 2022 18:50
How nice of the russian army to leave all that material behind.
https://youtu.be/wT_8HXAHZXE
https://youtu.be/PnbKM06Sg_M
It would appear that the largest contributor to the UKR AFV totals......are the Russians.

I doubt the UKR have all the trained crews they need, but its nice to have all the extra AFV available on call.

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 14 Sep 2022 03:30

Cult Icon wrote:
13 Sep 2022 21:28
Hikari wrote:
13 Sep 2022 16:15

Again, it won't be hard for Russia to just get some men into army, but that doesn't mean they can have a reasonable team of NCOs and other adequate and qualified senior command staff - it takes years to learn, train, and enough experience, which is what can call mobilization.
The Russian army no longer has a de facto Soviet-era mobilization system after the military reforms of the new century, and officers at all levels who were laid off from the army need to be retrained.If it was just a supplemental manpower that would be fine, but expanding army?
The Russians just deployed a new formation, "3rd Army Corps", mostly composed of reservists and volunteers. Russia is not short of equipment or ammunition, they retain superiority over NATO/Ukraine.
From wikipedia (and links therein:

"Recruitment posters, looking to raise volunteer battalions from across Russia, set the age limit as 18 to 50"

"Terms of service was often given 6 months and training would, in some cases, be one month"

"By 8 August 2022, some 40 battalions from 19 regions had been formed, many with less than the authorized paper strength of 400 men.[9] There is a general shortage of officers and experienced men to train the recruits,[10] partly due to the deployment and attrition of training cadres to the front lines during the initial phase of the 2022 invasion"

So we have a poorly trained group with a component of over-age men (see some of the pics of these guys in formation). In 6 months time some portion will decline further service due to a very short contract time. With such a small training cycles, they wont even of completed battalion level exercises.

Cannon-fodder, albeit with decent equipment for RU forces.

The RU replacement stream is partially compromised by sending training cadres and being unable to recruit the men they need. Rebuilding efforts are greatly hindered.

I would bet money, if there was some way to prove it, that front line tank strengths are in UKR favor right now (although crews availability is likely a problem).

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Sean Oliver » 14 Sep 2022 05:09

Today I read the Russians can't recruit enough young men to fight, and the Kremlin's Russo-centric warmongers are having fit about the "low levels of patriotism" of the younger generation who grew up enjoying western culture and all that goes with it. Traitors!
Also, oryx says 5900 Russian vehicles and 1000 Rus tanks lost

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 14 Sep 2022 05:16

What is oryx and is it trustworthy ?

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Martin_from_Valhalla » 14 Sep 2022 05:25

Oryx is a Dutch military analytical blog banned in Russia.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Martin_from_Valhalla » 14 Sep 2022 05:35

Sean Oliver wrote:
14 Sep 2022 05:09
Today I read the Russians can't recruit enough young men to fight, and the Kremlin's Russo-centric warmongers are having fit about the "low levels of patriotism" of the younger generation who grew up enjoying western culture and all that goes with it. Traitors!
The biggest Russian forum where news are discussed .https://www.yaplakal.com/forum1/st/425 ... 0622.html In this thread people are discussing a proposal of one member of State Duma to start full mobilisation to win the war. 90% of people are totally against it. Everything is as always: fifty year old warmonger soviet minded drunkards are for war but it is young guys who'll have to go to kill and maim other young guys

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 14 Sep 2022 07:19

Martin_from_Valhalla wrote:
14 Sep 2022 05:25
Oryx is a Dutch military analytical blog banned in Russia.
Oryx claims to be independent, but it is obviously anti-Russian :it called the Russian invasion an attack against Europe .Thus, I have my doubts about its reliability .Besides the financing of Oryx remains hidden .

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 14 Sep 2022 08:26

ljadw wrote:
14 Sep 2022 07:19
Martin_from_Valhalla wrote:
14 Sep 2022 05:25
Oryx is a Dutch military analytical blog banned in Russia.
Oryx claims to be independent, but it is obviously anti-Russian
Sounds good; Would make them anti-absolute evil.
ljadw wrote:
14 Sep 2022 07:19
it called the Russian invasion an attack against Europe .
Quite fair since the Ukraine is part of Europe and Russia is a semi-Asiatic imperialist aggressive bandit state.
ljadw wrote:
14 Sep 2022 07:19
Thus, I have my doubts about its reliability .
That should enhance Oryx' reliability in the minds of good people who hate evil.
ljadw wrote:
14 Sep 2022 07:19
Besides the financing of Oryx remains hidden .
From https://www.patreon.com/oryxspioenkop
About Oryx Blog
We are Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans, two military analysts devoted to investigating and sharing the ins and outs of conflict research, open-source intelligence and the occasional obscure piece of military history. Our independent research allows us to do objective analyses and uncover stories that might be unpalpable to other outlets, without sacrificing detail or accuracy in pandering to a broader audience. Unfortunately, it is also precisely this format that makes for a very unprofitable model - in turn leading to an inconsistent output of articles. By supporting us on Patreon, you help ensure we can devote more of our time to our blog, and release our articles on a more frequent basis. In the long run, we aspire to write articles about Azerbaijan, Eastern Ukraine, Venezuela, Vietnam, Turkey, Central and South-East Asia, and expand our coverage on Syria, Iran, Cuba, Africa, the Caucasus and the Gulf region. We appreciate any help that we can get that’ll allow us to stride closer to this goal!
Do you mean that their individual Patreon contributors should be named? Wouldn't that make the good people susceptible to pro-absolute evil babbler psychos?

Markus

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Hikari » 14 Sep 2022 08:56

ljadw wrote:
14 Sep 2022 07:19
Martin_from_Valhalla wrote:
14 Sep 2022 05:25
Oryx is a Dutch military analytical blog banned in Russia.
Oryx claims to be independent, but it is obviously anti-Russian :it called the Russian invasion an attack against Europe .Thus, I have my doubts about its reliability .Besides the financing of Oryx remains hidden .
They were fairly reliable at the beginning of the war, though with the Ukrainian government's information controls, they were unable to get as many photos of the wreckage of Russian equipment from the start of the war.
Personally, I think that in general, Oyrx will only underestimate the extent of Russia's losses.
It's not surprising that they have a position, even in China, where public opinion is generally pro-Russian, there are still many people (like me) who want sanctions against Putin for his aggression and provoking military adventures... That doesn't make me overly optimistic about the Ukrainian can defeat Russians soon.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 14 Sep 2022 09:46

Nobody knows how many tanks the Russians have committed in Ukraine (from what I have seen Russia had only some 2500 tanks available at the start of the war )and nobody knows the percentage of Russian tanks that were combat /non combat losses .
In WW2 most tanks were lost to non combat causes .

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