news from Russo-Ukraine Front

[Yuri]

One more small remark about the problem of "shell starvation".
According to the chief of the Rheinmetall Corporation, at the moment this corporation is capable of producing 250-300,000 shells of 120 mm caliber for Leopard 2 tank guns. Also, according to this gentleman, after proper capital investments in three years, the Rheinmetall Corporation can increase the production of shells for 120 mm caliber tank guns to 500,000 pieces and possibly even 750,000 pieces.
Now let's go down from the height on which the chief of the Rheinmetall corporation sits on the sinful earth and look at how tanks operate today and what kind of appetite these tanks have for shells.
Today, tanks are used not only for direct fire at targets located on the enemy's front line, but also for firing at unobserved targets located at a depth of up to 5-6 kilometers (and often up to 7-8 kilometers) behind the front line.
At the moment, on average, one tank battalion (30 tanks) spends 30 shells per tank per day of combat operations.
Thus, one tank battalion consumes up to 900 shells per day.
As we know, there are 365/366 days in a year.
Consequently, in one year, one such battalion consisting of thirty tanks will spend more than 300,000 shells in one year of combat operations.
If you believe the words of the chief of the Rheinmetall corporation, then at the moment the production capacity of this corporation will not be able to ensure the full-fledged actions of one tank battalion. And only two or three years after the commissioning of new production facilities for the production of tank shells, Rheinmetall Corporation will be able to provide action on the battlefield to two or three tank battalions.
These are the pies with cutlets we have with you.

[Aida1]

The guy speaking, Yury Mezinov, a Russian, was on a Wagner affiliated Telegram channel.

That's what dmitri@wartranslated https://twitter.com/wartranslated an Estonian living in London does; translate Russian, mostly negative, pro-Kremlin sources on Telegram.

As I said a pro-Ukrainian propaganda outfit that panders to the wet-dreams of the old cold-war warriors. Porn for pensioners. No different than the Germans watching Kolberg in April 1945 and hallucinating about the (inevitable) day The USA comes to its senses and follows a re-equipped SS against Russia.

You are living in a pro putin bubble.

[Aida1]

Hi Michael Kenny,

But nobody ever pretended that Ukraine was self sufficient in weaponry, did they?

Nor did Ukraine ever pretend to have aspirations to be a world power, did it?

Russia pretended both.

It is not just Ukraine. You would have to be wilfully dissociative to suggest otherwise.
Tommy, blind deaf and dumb.jpg

The entire contents of NATO's ammo depots is being placed at the disposal of Ukraine and combined they can not match the Russian numbers.

Wishful thinking. Dream on.

[Aida1]

“Entire contents”? Hyperbole or do you have a source for that?

A thread choc-full of hyperbole and you pick on mine?

The thread long ago ceased to serve any useful purpose when a group of ex cold-war warriors decided to use it it to articulate their unfulfilled wet-dreams about the destruction of Russia. Sid seems to have been bitten by the same bug no doubt 'coloured' by his actions in Africa as a young man. Russia is currently engaged in a proxy war with the USA and to a lesser extent NATO. There is no evidence Russia is running short of anything and if you had to pick one area where she clearly had a massive advantage it is in munitions. The combined efforts of NATO are unable to match that Russian expenditure so why Sid went straight to this area to try and claim they are 'struggling is a bit of a puzzle.
If they are 'struggling' then it must be the same way the USA struggled to keep its 14 Armored Divisions in NWE Europe up to full strength given they had a shortage of tanks. It must have been a relief the Germans when they realised the US Armored Divisions facing them had only 90% TOE and this gave rise to a hope that their Panzer Divisions, operating at 40% TOE, could overwhelm the 'struggling' under-strength American Divisions. Montgomery had to help out The USA by transferring over c.350 M4 from their holdings.
As Sid could (but wont) say : 'didn't America have aspirations to be a world power? Is that evidence that The USA was not self sufficient in weaponry in WW2?

You are deluded. Clearly living in an alternate reality. Your favourite country failed completely and will be defeated and taken out as a power.Your friend Putin is now the subject of an international arrest warrant for warcrimes.

[Yuri]

We publish a request from the American edition of Semafor and the answer:

Dear Evgeny Viktorovich!
You are concerned about the Semafor edition in New York.
As part of one of our investigations, we spoke with several Afghan military personnel who informed us that some of their acquaintances were signing contracts with the Wagner PMCs.
Could you confirm that there are Afghan mercenaries in the PMCs? And if so, how many of them are there? On what terms did they join? Are there any of them who cooperated with the US during their stay in the region?

We publish a comment by E.V. Prigozhin:
"Yes, indeed, the Afghan fighters of the Wagner PMCs work with us in small numbers. Now there is an artillery unit, which at one time was trained to work on American artillery systems, M-777 howitzers, plus it works with Javelin anti–tank missile systems, etc. - what we manage to buy from Ukrainian units, or captured ones.
" t.me/concordgroup_official/599

We publish a request from the editorial board of the American edition of Semafor and a response:

I would like to clarify: do we understand correctly that PMCs Wagner (periodically?) cooperates with the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the subject of purchases of Western weapons from them? Please tell us how this process works, who is the mediator on the part of Ukraine and through what communication channels is communication carried out?

We publish a comment by E.V. Prigozhin:
"Gentlemen journalists from Semafor, have a conscience, how can I discuss military issues with you? Information for information. Addresses, appearances, passwords. I am ready to exchange the information that you request, firstly, for the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for April 2023 with all the details. Secondly, we need reports on the introduction of American intelligence services into the counting system, with the help of which a "system failure" was organized, thanks to which the result of the US presidential election in 2020 was drawn. In addition, we need the CIA's records of telephone conversations of election commission employees and electors in wavering states. Provide all this data. As they say, a quid pro quo."

[Sid Guttridge]

Putin is reportedly going to honour the Russian pilot who brought down the US drone!

So, poor old Russia is reduced to honouring pilots who bring down an unmanned, unarmed, neutral aircraft over international waters?

No wonder the Russians won't fly over Ukraine when they can become an "ace" without risk!

Cheers,

Sid.

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Yuri,

Seriously though, how likely is it that Afghans are manning Javelins and M-777s for Wagner? The Wagner game is to push expendable manpower into infantry combat, not give high-end, irreplaceable, equipment to foreigners.

Cheers,

Sid.

[Tom from Cornwall]

A thread choc-full of hyperbole and you pick on mine?

Many of the posts on this thread are from members who I've chosen to ignore - so really you should regard it as a signal honour that I noted your use of hyperbole!!

Anyway, I'll disappear back to researching the conflict amongst the hedgerows of Normandy and the mountains of Italy and leave the instant judgement about current events to those who feel more qualified to comment.



Regards

Tom

[ljadw]

There is no evidence Russia is running short of anything and if you had to pick one area where she clearly had a massive advantage it is in munitions.

[artillery]....other than the noted decline in both RU cruise missile attacks and decrease in artillery strikes (via FIRMS)
[men]....other than recruiting from prisons
[tanks/IFV]....other than refurbing and using tanks and IFV from the 1960s
[drones]....other than frantic purchases from Iran

This is all clear evidence of RU running short of various items. You dont recruit prisoners if you have enough men. You dont refurb T-62 is you have T-72/80/90 available. Etc. Etc.

The combined efforts of NATO are unable to match that Russian expenditure so why Sid went straight to this area to try and claim they are 'struggling is a bit of a puzzle.

NATO isnt even trying. The US, tomorrow, could ship millions of rounds of artillery shells if we wanted to. NATO nations could ship more planes and tanks today.

Its not "unable". Its "unwilling".

If they are 'struggling' then it must be the same way the USA struggled to keep its 14 Armored Divisions in NWE Europe up to full strength given they had a shortage of tanks. It must have been a relief the Germans when they realised the US Armored Divisions facing them had only 90% TOE and this gave rise to a hope that their Panzer Divisions, operating at 40% TOE, could overwhelm the 'struggling' under-strength American Divisions.

The big difference is that the US could ship plenty of up to date tanks to make up for losses. RU is using T-62 to try and keep up. The WW2 analogy would be more correct if the US had to ship M2 light tanks in place of SHermans. But we didnt. RU does have to in this analogy.

Mad Dog

US claims to have 4000 + Abrams and promises to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine, something which will take a year .
But these 39 Abrams will not come from the reserve of 4000 + Abrams, as this would not benefit the military-industrial complex and Hunter Biden , no : the WH has ordered GD to produce 31 new Abrams,at a cost of 310 million USD, to be paid by the US taxpayer .

[Cult Icon]

"Countries that "mistreated Ukraine" will be held to account after the war ends, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has warned."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64976079

"Mr Kuleba said Western allies were not giving Ukraine military support fast enough because they had not been ready for a conflict on the same scale as World War One. And what he needed was artillery shells.

"We want partners to act faster," he said."


The problem with these bold statements is that Ukraine is currently losing the war outside the world of fantasy propaganda.

A miracle with strategic level impact needs to happens in the 'spring offensive'. It is time for diplomacy.

[Cult Icon]

AZOM was estimated to have 1000 defenders.

https://riafan.ru/23946061-chvk_vagner_ ... iz_bahmuta

"Currently, almost the entire territory of AZOM is under the control of the WAGNER PMC. The fighters had to take a few more large buildings, where the enemy is seriously entrenched - the hardest battles are going on."

Despite the successful and fairly rapid progress, the storming of the plant is not easy for the "musicians". Just to enter the territory of the facility, the units of the "orchestra" fought for as long as 13 hours.

The situation in this sector of the front is complicated by the very close work of the Ukrainian artillery. Fire on the supply routes to the plant of ammunition and food for PMCs, the routes of medical evacuation is conducted virtually continuously. In addition, the enemy repeatedly made attempts to counterattack, but without success.

[Aida1]

There is no evidence Russia is running short of anything and if you had to pick one area where she clearly had a massive advantage it is in munitions.

[artillery]....other than the noted decline in both RU cruise missile attacks and decrease in artillery strikes (via FIRMS)
[men]....other than recruiting from prisons
[tanks/IFV]....other than refurbing and using tanks and IFV from the 1960s
[drones]....other than frantic purchases from Iran

This is all clear evidence of RU running short of various items. You dont recruit prisoners if you have enough men. You dont refurb T-62 is you have T-72/80/90 available. Etc. Etc.

The combined efforts of NATO are unable to match that Russian expenditure so why Sid went straight to this area to try and claim they are 'struggling is a bit of a puzzle.

NATO isnt even trying. The US, tomorrow, could ship millions of rounds of artillery shells if we wanted to. NATO nations could ship more planes and tanks today.

Its not "unable". Its "unwilling".

If they are 'struggling' then it must be the same way the USA struggled to keep its 14 Armored Divisions in NWE Europe up to full strength given they had a shortage of tanks. It must have been a relief the Germans when they realised the US Armored Divisions facing them had only 90% TOE and this gave rise to a hope that their Panzer Divisions, operating at 40% TOE, could overwhelm the 'struggling' under-strength American Divisions.

The big difference is that the US could ship plenty of up to date tanks to make up for losses. RU is using T-62 to try and keep up. The WW2 analogy would be more correct if the US had to ship M2 light tanks in place of SHermans. But we didnt. RU does have to in this analogy.

Mad Dog

US claims to have 4000 + Abrams and promises to send 31 Abrams to Ukraine, something which will take a year .
But these 39 Abrams will not come from the reserve of 4000 + Abrams, as this would not benefit the military-industrial complex and Hunter Biden , no : the WH has ordered GD to produce 31 new Abrams,at a cost of 310 million USD, to be paid by the US taxpayer .

Conspirationism at work as always.

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Yuri,

Your methodology is like estimating a car's tyre wear assuming it drives 24 hours a day for 365 days every year, which is ridiculous.

If all tanks were on the most highly active battlefronts every day for a year, you might have a point, but of course they are not, are they?

Most tanks spend most of the time out of the line.

I suspect being knocked out or, failing that, barrel wear are much more of a risk than a shell shortage.

Cheers,

Sid.

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Cult Icon,

So, you think, "Ukraine is currently losing the war"?

Given that Ukraine was attacked by a country that has ten times its military budget and four times its population, I would suggest that the fact that it is still in the field after a year is a major victory in itself!

There is also precious little evidence at the moment of the reverse proposition - that Russia is winning the war. Its advances in the last eleven months have been minimal compared with large scale retreats.

This war has a long way to go and Russia may be bankrupt by the end of it, whatever the result on the ground.

If Russia is so lacking in self confidence that it feels the need for diplomacy, it has only to ask Ukraine for a meeting. The worst that could happen is for Ukraine to say no..

Cheers,

Sid.

[Michael Kenny]

Given that Ukraine was attacked by a country that has ten times its military budget and four times its population, I would suggest that the fact that it is still in the field after a year is a major victory in itself!

Bogus analogy. It isn't just Ukraine v Russia and the invader is in possession of most of the disputed territory. What is more it has not shown the slightest inclination to hand it back.

There is also precious little evidence at the moment of the reverse proposition - that Russia is winning the war. Its advances in the last eleven months have been minimal compared with large scale retreats.

Another completely bogus comparison. Your choice of 'the last eleven months' is specifically chosen to ignore the Russian gains and flatter the Ukrainian response.

This war has a long way to go and Russia may be bankrupt by the end of it, whatever the result on the ground.

'The war' has been a wake-up call for countries outside the western bubble. They do not intend to keep their exposure to blatant rigging of the financial system and are taking steps to set to reduce their exposure to this type of blackmail. As long as Russia has Chinese backing (and despite the wet-dreams of the deluded cold-war warriors she most definitely has Russia's back) then Russia will not go bust.