Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

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mezsat2
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Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by mezsat2 » 15 Mar 2023 04:27

This seems the most logical end to the war from his perspective.

It would force the complete evacuation of all combatants, create an "exclusion zone" 5 times larger than Chernobyl and essentially end the war for both sides.

He could blame it on a Ukrainian HIMARS attack and relax in his luxurious palace while his soldiers are being killed by the
fallout. He will say the catastrophe was due to "American Imperialism".
Last edited by mezsat2 on 15 Mar 2023 04:45, edited 2 times in total.

Lukas11
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by Lukas11 » 15 Mar 2023 04:44

There is no need to it. The Ukrainians have already failed two boat assaults against the power plant. It's very well defended.

mezsat2
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by mezsat2 » 15 Mar 2023 04:53

I apologize for responding to my own topic, but does anyone out there know what would happen if all 5 reactors at the ZPP melted down? I'm clearly no nuclear scientist. Is there a basic modeling of such a thing?

mezsat2
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by mezsat2 » 15 Mar 2023 11:18

Lukas11 wrote:
15 Mar 2023 04:44
There is no need to it. The Ukrainians have already failed two boat assaults against the power plant. It's very well defended.
Well defended and I would suspect heavy demolition explosives have been set throughout the facility by the Russians. As catastrophic
it may be, it could well be their only viable exit (in terms of self-respect) from the conflict.

I fully expect him to blow this plant in the next 4-6 months in order to force a "nuclear cease-fire" in much of Ukraine.

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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by Tom Peters » 15 Mar 2023 13:03

Lukas11 wrote:
15 Mar 2023 04:44
There is no need to it. The Ukrainians have already failed two boat assaults against the power plant. It's very well defended.
You mean the faked RU videos that show the "dead" UKR getting up ?

Why would anyone try a boat assault across the Dnepr ? Neither side can force the river.

As to the original question, Other than the RU shorts hitting the plant, neither side wants to do any real damage, and it would take a concerted deliberate attempt to instigate a non-trivial radioactive release.

Mad Dog

Lukas11
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by Lukas11 » 15 Mar 2023 16:59

Tom Peters wrote:
15 Mar 2023 13:03
Lukas11 wrote:
15 Mar 2023 04:44
There is no need to it. The Ukrainians have already failed two boat assaults against the power plant. It's very well defended.
You mean the faked RU videos that show the "dead" UKR getting up ?

Why would anyone try a boat assault across the Dnepr ? Neither side can force the river.

As to the original question, Other than the RU shorts hitting the plant, neither side wants to do any real damage, and it would take a concerted deliberate attempt to instigate a non-trivial radioactive release.

Mad Dog
No I mean the absolutely real two boat attacks on the powerplant which were corroborated by the NATO soldier and war reporter from Ukraine who goes under the nickname Willy OAM on youtube. I posted it in my youtube video. Here is the timestamped part:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPmq4eCstds&t=2615s

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wm
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by wm » 15 Mar 2023 20:40

mezsat2 wrote:
15 Mar 2023 04:53
I apologize for responding to my own topic, but does anyone out there know what would happen if all 5 reactors at the ZPP melted down? I'm clearly no nuclear scientist. Is there a basic modeling of such a thing?
In such reactors water is both coolant and moderator, so it will be more like Fukushima (the containment vessel contained the melting) and not like Chernobyl (an explosion).
Loss of water results in loss of power - it was the other way in Chernobyl.

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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by mezsat2 » 16 Mar 2023 07:24

mezsat2 wrote:
15 Mar 2023 11:18
Lukas11 wrote:
15 Mar 2023 04:44
There is no need to it. The Ukrainians have already failed two boat assaults against the power plant. It's very well defended.
Well defended and I would suspect heavy demolition explosives have been set throughout the facility by the Russians. As catastrophic
it may be, it could well be their only viable exit (in terms of self-respect) from the conflict.

I fully expect him to blow this plant in the next 4-6 months in order to force a "nuclear cease-fire" in much of Ukraine.
That's my thought, Lukas. As catastrophic as it will be, Putin will choose this over the complete annihilation of the human race.
I see no way that the current hostilities could continue on a quite radioactively hot battlefield.

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wm
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by wm » 16 Mar 2023 13:12

In Chernobyl radioactivity was spread by a massive graphite fire, and they had tons of graphite inside.

The ZPP uses water instead of graphite, so if Putin destroys the containment vessel, the reactor will shut down immediately (because water is required to generate power).
The remains of the reactor will still be radioactive, but the massive building itself will stop its spreading.
If Putin destroys the building (and a huge explosion is needed), the debris will be dispersed around the station, but there will be no radioactive cloud wandering around, as in the case of Chernobyl.
The ZPP is inherently incapable of becoming a new Chernobyl.

mezsat2
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by mezsat2 » 17 Mar 2023 07:38

This makes sense, but again, one must consider the effect of the massive application of high explosives there. I see no mathematics which could describe an event of such nature.

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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by Peter89 » 17 Mar 2023 09:27

It is a much more complicated matter than focusing on nuclear meltdowns. Also it is obvious that not only Russian forces damaged the facility, although it is questionable, by both sides, whether it was intentional or not.

Image

Phrases like "The ZPP is inherently incapable of becoming a new Chernobyl." are misleading at best. ZNPP has an obvious potential to cause a very serious nuclear accident, no matter how the radioactive contamination would take place.

To begin with, radioactive material is not only found in the reactor core.
The ZNPP has a huge nuclear waste management facility, which was hit many times already.
Also the reactor needs a stable connection to a power grid, which is not stable and not clear who's responsibility it is. (Russian laws and Ukrainian laws both claim it's their territory thus it's their responsibility.)

Image

I think it is needless to say that the contamination of the Dnepr river might not be a minor effect. The Chernobyl disaster caused aerial contamination, but for example Fukushima caused water contamination, including ground water contamination. Thanks to the huge reservoirs, it will contaminate the ground water around the region without any chance to control.

And the best part of it is that the sensors themselves are in jeopardy. For example, there are thermometers to control the heat of the nuclear waste, and wells dug with radioactivity sensors to monitor the ground water.

A few quick remarks on meltdowns. The ZNPP has shut down all its reactors, but still require power to cool the radioactive material. Thus it is not that simple that a meltdown can not happen. Yes it can. This is why Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid is very seriously problematic, and on November 23 all offsite power was lost in the ZNPP, thus a catastrophe was only avoided by EDGs. It was a critically close moment for a nuclear disaster, which I wouldn't underplay.

Of course the correct course of action would be to comply with the IAEA suggestions and establish a Nuclear Safety and Security Protection Zone and the seven pillars suggested in their latest report:

Image

For those who are interested:
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/file ... report.pdf
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/file ... pt2022.pdf
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/file ... b-2023.pdf
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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wm
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by wm » 17 Mar 2023 14:51

Yes, a meltdown is possible, but it will be just a lump of hot metal on the floor, as happened in Fukushima.
And the Dnepr river can be contaminated, but it's such a massive river it will decontaminate itself relatively fast.

In a Chernobyl-type power plant, it's feasible, I suppose, to secretly sabotage it and blame the resulting explosion on the Ukrainians.
But the ZNPP, with all the blowing up of containment vessels and buildings, that's impossible.

So why bother and not send a few nuclear Iskanders programmed for ground burst? At least the result will be predictable.
Especially since using nuclear weapons isn't a crime, and an attack on a nuclear power station is actually a massive war crime.

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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by Peter89 » 17 Mar 2023 16:53

wm wrote:
17 Mar 2023 14:51
Yes, a meltdown is possible, but it will be just a lump of hot metal on the floor, as happened in Fukushima.
Or something else, like in case of the Three Mile Island accident. A lot of things can go wrong in a nuclear power plant.
wm wrote:
17 Mar 2023 14:51
And the Dnepr river can be contaminated, but it's such a massive river it will decontaminate itself relatively fast.
Not quite. The amount of radioactive waste stored in ZNPP is enough to make the lower Dniepr uninhabitable.

wm wrote:
17 Mar 2023 14:51
In a Chernobyl-type power plant, it's feasible, I suppose, to secretly sabotage it and blame the resulting explosion on the Ukrainians.
But the ZNPP, with all the blowing up of containment vessels and buildings, that's impossible.
Blaming is not really working in case of a nuclear catastrophe. So far both the Russians and the Ukrainians jeopardized the ZNPP's safety, and both countries claim that it is their land. It would make sense to stop any military activities around it, as it was proposed.
wm wrote:
17 Mar 2023 14:51
So why bother and not send a few nuclear Iskanders programmed for ground burst? At least the result will be predictable.
Especially since using nuclear weapons isn't a crime, and an attack on a nuclear power station is actually a massive war crime.
Using nuclear weapons is not in the best interest of anyone. Things would be out of control relatively swiftly.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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wm
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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by wm » 17 Mar 2023 23:29

Well, it could be in the best interest of Putin. And he runs the show.

I'm not sure about that "the lower Dniepr uninhabitable."
Reactor-grade uranium could be handled with bare hands, with no ill effects.
Spent reactor-grade uranium contains lots of radioactivity, but still, during the cold war, they dumped such stuff into oceans literally by tons, and we still here today.

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Re: Would Putin Blow the ZPP?

Post by mezsat2 » 25 Mar 2023 02:10

The best solution would be for the AFU to launch a massive counterattack toward Melitipol, seize the plant and call in a UN peacekeeping force to
create a safe perimeter around this clearly dangerous facility. If you play with fire long enough, you're going to get burned.

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