Oleg presented as his view
"if there were no winter war USSR probably would not annex Baltic states.”
amazed at this, I had to ask:
I must say this idea is completely new to me – what is the logic of it?
“prior to Winter war USSR could count on Baltic states to stick to treaties they signed with USSR. After that they probably did not want to have anything in common with USSR. Consequntely USSR moved to annex. That’s a hypothesis anyway.”
Isn't this an interesting hypothesis indeed! If it were true, then if only Finland had agreed to all the demands of Stalin without opposing him, the Red Army could have peacefully entered every country in its “sphere of influence” to take its bases without a single shot being fired. The Red Army would have then lived a life of its own within its bases, and otherwise the rest of the Finnish and Baltic societies would have lived in harmony happily ever after. How sweet, what an idyllic fairytale!
Unfortunately, the mean Finns did not buy this beautiful melodrama, but instead they made Stalin pay dearly for his attempt at enforcing his idyll. Like Molotov said, Finns needed to be hit with a sledgehammer to force common sense in their heads. In doing so, Stalin lost million men (according to Khruschev), but Stalin did finally manage to rob the Karelian Isthmus including Viipuri and the Salla territory, and he got his base at Hanko.
After his heroic achievement, why couldn’t Father Sunshine then continue to build his idyll in 1940 on the Southern side of the Gulf of Finland, where the so much more sensible Balts had merely opened the gates to let the Red Army in? Why not build the melodrama there as a display window, to convince the rest of the world how beneficial it is to let in the Red Army?
According to Oleg’s theory, the Balts had formerly been so willing and reliable in sticking to their treaties, until the naughty Finns had spoiled it all, by making the Balts less reliable with their inappropriate example.
Thereafter “they (the Baltic nations) probably did not want to have anything in common with USSR”, and in 1940 it was no more sufficient for the USSR to have absolute military superiority and occupation of all strategic sites in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
It was totally the fault of the mean Finns that Stalin then needed fake elections and puppet governments to join “voluntarily” the Baltic peoples in the happy family of Soviet nations, where they could be sent to die in Siberia and Soviet Citizens from all over the Empire were sent in to replace them. Now the USSR could again count on the Baltic States to stick to treaties they signed with USSR – how fortunate!
And isn’t it incredible how naughty the Finns were in 1939-40, by refusing to accept such generous offers that the USSR made?
-- There are many theories to explain history, but Oleg has really scored a record with this one.
Hanski