Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

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Wolf
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Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#1

Post by Wolf » 05 May 2017, 18:50

I met this view on the outcome of the Continuation War 1944:
The only thing that seems to have stopped Russia in 1944 was US carrot and stick diplomacy, and Finland handing over enough territory to allow Stalin to look elsewhere.
Is this a fair assessment on the events taking place in Finland 1944, and possibly later in the immediate post-war period?

Also, is this view common in litterature on the topic of Finland originating in the United States or the Russian Federation?

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Claes Johansen
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#2

Post by Claes Johansen » 05 May 2017, 20:18

I met this view on the outcome of the Continuation War 1944:

The only thing that seems to have stopped Russia in 1944 was US carrot and stick diplomacy, and Finland handing over enough territory to allow Stalin to look elsewhere.


Is this a fair assessment on the events taking place in Finland 1944, and possibly later in the immediate post-war period?
No, it's not a fair assessment. It should take into account also the remarkable resistance the Finns put up against the Soviet offensive in the summer of 1944, and for that matter the resistance that the German Army put up in Estonia around the same time. But pretty much equally wrong is the common Finnish tendency to neglect the strategic interests of the West in keeping Finland independent and how it helped the Finns at this stage. If I may quote myself:
Kimmo Rentola, one of the few historians who have analysed the final stage of the Continuation War in the light of the western democracies and their interest in keeping Finland independent, points to a string of factors that might work as an explanation for Stalin’s surprisingly lenient policy towards Finland at this time. Rentola mentions that the war in Western Europe was approaching Paris and Brussels, and that many felt it would be over before Christmas. The Russians were involved in a multitude of projects with the Western Allies, such as the setting-up of allied occupation zones in Germany. The Warsaw Uprising (where the Polish resistance revolted against the Nazi occupiers and Stalin deliberately delayed sending in troops in support of the Poles) had already damaged relations between Moscow and the Western Allies, and Stalin must have foreseen that he would have to keep using harsh methods in Poland, which would further harm his relations with the West.

Rentola suggest that the tense atmosphere meant that Stalin would have gained nothing by turning Finland into yet another area of conflict. He also takes it for granted that the Americans would have rejected Kymijoki as a new frontier, since Washington had decided once and for all that the 1940 border was to be kept. Finally, Rentola points out that the Finnish Army had shown it could not be defeated with the forces that were available to the Red Army in the border areas. This had, if nothing else, been made absolutely clear at the Battle of Ilomantsi.

(Claes Johansen: Hitler's Nordic Ally? - Finland and the Total War 1939-45, p. 297-298)
This discussion is more nuanced than what you normally see on the subject:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=214560

Since you're Swedish, I can also highly recommend this book:
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Art
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#3

Post by Art » 05 May 2017, 21:02

Wolf wrote: Is this a fair assessment on the events taking place in Finland 1944
I don't think so. The peace terms finally agreed were in essential points the same as Tehran terms or the terms offered during the negotiations in February-April 1944. So outcome of the war would be the same if Finns just agreed on these terms several months earlier than they did historically. As for "handing territory" I don't understand if it means military retreat from Karelia or legal cession of territories east of 1940 border. In either case that seems the be a redressing of steps made out of pure need and under pressure of circumstances as a sort of intricately constructed policy.

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Claes Johansen
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#4

Post by Claes Johansen » 05 May 2017, 22:19

@Art
So the outcome of the war would be the same if Finns just agreed on these terms several months earlier than they did historically.
Theoretically you may be right, but to put the word 'just' in there is really not reasonable. It was certainly not that simple. In fact, the Finns had several reasons not to go along with these demands:

1. There was a rather naive hope that they could get the 1939 border back (which, of course, was legally their right).

2. There would be massive political problems internally, including a very real risk of a German supported coup, Quisling-style.

3. The country would find itself at war with Germany, and there were 200,000+ fresh, rested and well-equipped German troops in Lapland with no plans to leave the area (this was long before D-Day so there wasn't yet the urgent need for them further south as evolved later on).

4. The Finnish faith in promises made by the Kremlin was rather limited, which I believe is highly understandable if we look at the relationship between the two countries during the preceding c. 25 years.

This last view was shared by the Allied leaders. Hence, in addition to the Soviet plans for Finland presented in Tehran, it was requested that the Kremlin guarantee Finland's independence. To that Stalin replied that the USSR would guarantee not to threaten Finland's independence, ‘if Finland by its behaviour did not force Russia to do so’ (source: United States, Department of State, Historical Office, Bureau of Public Affairs: The Conferences at Cairo and Tehran 1943, Washington, United States Government Printing Office 1961, p. 593)

I wonder what a person like you, Art, who grew up under Soviet Communism feel such a statement is really worth?
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Wolf
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#5

Post by Wolf » 06 May 2017, 10:43

Thank you Claes and Art!

Do you have any comment on this passage:
The US threatened to cut off lend-lease aid to the USSR if the USSR did not come to an accommodation with Finland and concentrate on Germany. The Soviets also understood that non-cooperation on that sort of thing would affect negotiations over final disposition of Germany and Germany allies vis a vis occupation. Germany was the ultimate prize. The Russians could choose between a rich plum like Germany, versus a backwater wilderness like Finland. That was an easy choice for any conqueror to make.

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Claes Johansen
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#6

Post by Claes Johansen » 06 May 2017, 11:24

@Wolf
Do you have any comment on this passage:

The US threatened to cut off lend-lease aid to the USSR if the USSR did not come to an accommodation with Finland and concentrate on Germany. The Soviets also understood that non-cooperation on that sort of thing would affect negotiations over final disposition of Germany and Germany allies vis a vis occupation. Germany was the ultimate prize. The Russians could choose between a rich plum like Germany, versus a backwater wilderness like Finland. That was an easy choice for any conqueror to make.
I would love to help you, but it is Impossible as long as you are giving no source for the quote, and the quote is giving no sources either, which makes it further impossible. In a case like this there also needs to be information on the time and place where this is supposed to have occurred. I tried a quick google but noting came up.
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Wolf
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#7

Post by Wolf » 06 May 2017, 12:25

Claes Johansen wrote:I would love to help you, but it is Impossible as long as you are giving no source for the quote, and the quote is giving no sources either, which makes it further impossible. In a case like this there also needs to be information on the time and place where this is supposed to have occurred. I tried a quick google but noting came up.
The source is one single user on another forum. This user does not readily provide what these claims are based on and I suspect it is mostly a case of trolling. I'm interested to find out if the above view on the end of the continuation war exists in the US or Russia, or if it's just the opinion of one induvidual.

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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#8

Post by Claes Johansen » 06 May 2017, 13:17

The source is one single user on another forum. This user does not readily provide what these claims are based on and I suspect it is mostly a case of trolling. I'm interested to find out if the above view on the end of the continuation war exists in the US or Russia, or if it's just the opinion of one induvidual.
You still need to reveal your source, i.e. give a link to the precise post on the forum you mention but forget to name - otherwise people around here might think it is you who are trolling.
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Wolf
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#9

Post by Wolf » 06 May 2017, 17:10

Claes Johansen wrote:You still need to reveal your source, i.e. give a link to the precise post on the forum you mention but forget to name - otherwise people around here might think it is you who are trolling.
Go there at your own peril though. Third post:

http://www.maddogdrivethru.net/viewtopi ... &start=180

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Claes Johansen
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#10

Post by Claes Johansen » 06 May 2017, 20:16

The source is one single user on another forum. This user does not readily provide what these claims are based on and I suspect it is mostly a case of trolling.
Looks very much like it.
I'm interested to find out if the above view on the end of the continuation war exists in the US or Russia.
They are big countries so you can probably find any opinion imaginable there if you look long and hard enough. Generally, though, this would not be an issue big enough for them to bother about. Still, it would be interesting to know where the guy has got this idea from.
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#11

Post by Claes Johansen » 10 May 2017, 12:49

Let us just go back here for a moment and recap the discussion:

ART:
So the outcome of the war would be the same if Finns just agreed on these terms several months earlier than they did historically.
CLAES JOHANSEN:
Theoretically you may be right, but to put the word 'just' in there is really not reasonable. It was certainly not that simple. In fact, the Finns had several reasons not to go along with these demands:

1. There was a rather naive hope that they could get the 1939 border back (which, of course, was legally their right).

2. There would be massive political problems internally, including a very real risk of a German supported coup, Quisling-style.

3. The country would find itself at war with Germany, and there were 200,000+ fresh, rested and well-equipped German troops in Lapland with no plans to leave the area (this was long before D-Day so there wasn't yet the urgent need for them further south as evolved later on).

4. The Finnish faith in promises made by the Kremlin was rather limited, which I believe is highly understandable if we look at the relationship between the two countries during the preceding c. 25 years.

This last view was shared by the Allied leaders. Hence, in addition to the Soviet plans for Finland presented in Tehran, it was requested that the Kremlin guarantee Finland's independence. To that Stalin replied that the USSR would guarantee not to threaten Finland's independence, ‘if Finland by its behaviour did not force Russia to do so’ (source: United States, Department of State, Historical Office, Bureau of Public Affairs: The Conferences at Cairo and Tehran 1943, Washington, United States Government Printing Office 1961, p. 593)

I wonder what a person like you, Art, who grew up under Soviet Communism feel such a statement is really worth?
Art, I have a lot of time and respect for you and I would really like to hear your response to my question.

Furthermore, I would like to add the following quote taken from the memoirs of Edwin Linkomies (Finland's prime minister when this extreme crises situation occurred), which shows very clearly how exactly the internal en external political situations in Finland at the time were woven into one another and how in a democracy the leaders have to take into consideration public opinion even when that opinion is clearly unrealistic (which could partly be blamed on the governments own propaganda, but that is yet another matter for discussion):
The right time to sue for peace was when Germany could no longer prevent it and the terms were such that the Finnish people could accept them. (Edvin Linkomies: I mit lands tjänst – Minnen från statsministertiden 1943-1944 (Stockholm 1974), p. 244, cf. Meinander: Finland 1944, p. 23)
Below: Edwin Linkomies (1894-1963), 16th prime minster of Finland (March 1943-August 1944)
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#12

Post by Juha Tompuri » 10 May 2017, 21:07

When posting photos here, please do not forget to mention the sources.

/Juha

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Claes Johansen
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Re: Outcome of the Cont. War, reasons

#13

Post by Claes Johansen » 10 May 2017, 21:52

Sorry, Juhani. It was Wikepedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Linkomies

Taken in 1960 and now in the public domain.
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