Was there correlation between VVS/VVS-KBF claims and their own combat losses in Leningrad and Karelian Front?

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tramonte
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Was there correlation between VVS/VVS-KBF claims and their own combat losses in Leningrad and Karelian Front?

#1

Post by tramonte » 14 Mar 2021, 10:24

There was an pretty interesting article by Christopher A. Lawrence of Dupuy Institute: "So What Was Driving the Soviet Kill Claims?"

Image

(The graph above is from page 839 of his original Kursk book.)

"…the Soviet claims do not appear to have been related to the German casualties. Instead, if one compares Soviet losses to Soviet claims of German losses one does find a fit. The pattern is fairly clear, the Soviets always claimed more casualties than they lost. With the Soviets losing 658 planes, and claiming 928 German kills, we are looking at the Soviets claiming about 40 percent more kills than they lost. This over-claiming is fairly consistent from day to day, and as shown elsewhere [in the book], is not a problem unique to the Soviet air force [it was also the case for the Soviet Army]. "
He then cites a well-known Soviet Air Force war veteran...
A briefing based upon this data was presented to Col. Fyodor Sverdlov in October 1994, who was a staff officer for the Eleventh Guards Army at Kursk and later a professor at the Frunze Military Academy. After presenting the chart showing Soviet claims to German losses, Sverdlov stated that “the enemy always suffers 30% more losses than you.”
There is at least one claim from Karelian Front in 1944. VVS 324th fighter division (with 3 regiments?) claimed 39 Finnish Curtiss, 18 Brewster, 6 Morane and 1 Bf-109 shot down during Svir-Petrozavodsk Offensive (10 June - 1 August 1944). Finnish records are showing just 4 Morane and 2 Brewster shot down by Soviet aircraft. 3 Morane and 3 Curtiss were shot down by AA-units.

When it comes to Winter War there was indeed clear over claim of 411 shot down/destroyed Finnish aircraft. According most studies Finnish AA and FAF units have shot down confirmed (from Soviet sources) at least 250 aircraft but not even near 411. How about Continuation War 1941-44 both in Karelian Isthmus and Karelian Front? What were the official Soviet claims of Finnish/German losses there in 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944?
"Military history is nothing but a tissue of fictions and legends, only a form of literary invention; reality counts for very little in such affair."

- Gaston de Pawlowski, Dans les rides du front

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tramonte
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Re: Was there correlation between VVS/VVS-KBF claims and their own combat losses in Leningrad and Karelian Front?

#2

Post by tramonte » 14 Mar 2021, 11:09

The point here is according Christopher A. Lawrence that there wasn't clear correlation at all between Soviet claims and German losses.This is from data of Operation Citadel, southern sector, 4 - 18 July 1943.Image
"Military history is nothing but a tissue of fictions and legends, only a form of literary invention; reality counts for very little in such affair."

- Gaston de Pawlowski, Dans les rides du front


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Re: Was there correlation between VVS/VVS-KBF claims and their own combat losses in Leningrad and Karelian Front?

#3

Post by Fulmen » 15 Dec 2023, 14:15

tramonte wrote:
14 Mar 2021, 10:24
When it comes to Winter War there was indeed clear over claim of 411 shot down/destroyed Finnish aircraft. According most studies Finnish AA and FAF units have shot down confirmed (from Soviet sources) at least 250 aircraft but not even near 411.
If the FAF had lost 250 aircraft to combat in the Winter War, it'd have had no aircraft left in combat squadrons after the war. :)

The VVS RKKA claimed 427 FAF aircraft while the VVS VMF claimed another 65, for a total of 492 VVS claims in the Winter War. In reality they destroyed 35. AA destroyed another 8. In total the FAF lost 47 aircraft to combat in the Winter War, out of about 230-260 aircraft fielded in combat squadrons throughout the entire 105 day war.

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