Britain makes peace in 1940 - What happens to the Jews?

[BillHermann]

If Britian had capitulated in 1940, there would have been no need whatever for Japan to have invaded the British and Dutch colonies....

Spat out my coffee again... That is extremely short sighted and takes the aggression and expansion out of the axis plan. Your concept was originally about peace not defeat (capitulation) those are two diffrent things. You keep on trying to lighten the concept by saying that peace would have given salvation to the Jews but now you are using capitulation that is different. A peace treaty is different as well. Plus the beef with the Japanese in the east is a diffrent story to peace in Europe as there is individual diplomacy.

Think for a minute about peace in Europe and what that would have meant for the empire, Canada, Great Britain, and Austrailia. Do you think for a second things would have changed with Japan? No, Australia was freeaking outvand you know this. That some how Japan would have stopped and not looked at Australia is foolish. Japan's interests were diffrent than Germny's and they had little influence on each others large plan.

But Mr Milks to be back on topic, peace would have given Germany more power to kill not less. It would have been a pat on the back, Germany would have been given the green light, the thumbs up. If you knew more about Reinhard Heydrich and his plans along wih his associates you would not have such a simplistic view on this subject.

[michael mills]

Spat out my coffee again

Try a different brand perhaps.

If you knew more about Reinhard Heydrich and his plans along wih his associates you would not have such a simplistic view on this subject.

I have a modicum of knowledge about Heydrich, his plans and his associates.

For example, I know that between 1939 and 1941, he was the main force behind organising the emigration of Jews from Germany and German-controlled Europe, entering into clandestine arrangements with the Zionist Organisation for that purpose.

Now why would he have been so assiduously organising the departure of Jews from the German sphere of influence, if he had an aim of killing them? Why do so much to help them to escape?

The ending of the state of war between Britian and Germany, however that was achieved, presumably through British acceptance of Hitler's terms, may well have removed any obstacle to the german Government doing whatever it wanted to do with the Jews under its control.

But what did it what to do with them?

All the hard evidence available to us suggests strongly that what it wanted to do was to expel them from Europe, and had no interest in where they went or what they did when they got there.

[Gorque]

Gorque,

The reaction of the German public to "Kristallnacht" is not really relevant to the analysis of the counterfactual situation that is the object of this thread.

What is relevant is the German Government's aim in launching a violent attack on the Jewish community, expressed mainly in the destruction of property.

I am maintaining that the purpose was to increase the pressure on German Jews to get out of Germany by terrorising them with threats of extrme violence.

Do you have any data that invalidate that interpretation?

The question you have to ask yourself is: If the German Government, or perhaps Hitler alone, harboured a secret desire to kill all the Jews it could get its hands on, if not immediately then at some time in the future, why did it do everything in its power, including terrorism, to force Jews to leave Germany, rather than imprisoning them until the killing could start?

Why did agents of the German Government, soon after the conquest of Poland in September 1939, attempt to induce the Soviet Union to allow the transfer to its territory of all the Jews in the German-occupied part of Poland?

None of those actions by the German Government are compatible with a pre-existing intention to kill all the Jews in its power at some future time.

Michael:

The opinion I expressed was that the German public and the international community acted as a brake upon the the Nazi regime and have provided you with documentation in support of my opinion. The fact that you consider the public reaction to the events of Kristallnacht as being irrelevant indicates, at least to me, that you believe that the regime ruled in a vacuum without considering the plaints and pleas of its citizens or of the international community. It did not.

Your interpretation of the physical events of the regime's short-term intentions, while factually accurate, does not address the mind-set of the regime's leaders, who, throughout the regimes existence, referred to the Jews, who at the regime's start were a part of Germany's citizenry until they were stripped of it, as a 'pestilence' and/or 'Tuberculosis bacilli'. Without the benefit of either hindsight, previous statements or previous actions of the Reich's leaders, I'd would give serious consideration to your proposition. However when one factors in either their statements, prior actions or the deliberate murder of the less fortunate through Aktion T-4 beginning in 1939, one clearly comes to conclusion that the Nazi regime would suffer no compunction in finding a solution to its 'Jewish Question'.

BTW: The ghettoization of Poland's Jews began in 1939, which is some month's before the date of this thread's topic. Perhaps the ghetto's of 1939 Poland do not meet your definition of imprisonment but considering the mandatory requirements for Jews to reside in them and the consequences should they be found outside of them, from my perspective, Poland's ghettos sure come close to meeting the definition of a prison.

[michael mills]

BTW: The ghettoization of Poland's Jews began in 1939, which is some month's before the date of this thread's topic. Perhaps the ghetto's of 1939 Poland do not meet your definition of imprisonment but considering the mandatory requirements for Jews to reside in them and the consequences should they be found outside of them, from my perspective, Poland's ghettos sure come close to meeting the definition of a prison.

Gorque,

You should read the detailed analysis by the historian Christopher Browning of the ghettoisation of the Jews of German-occupied Poland. He concludes that they were a temporary measure, arising from the continuation of the war and the failure to achieve an immediate expulsion of the Jews of the German Zone of Occupation into the Soviet Zone, in the months after the conquest of Poland. The purpose of the ghettos was to warehouse the Jews until such time as a decision was made on what to do with them.

The historical fact is that the majority of the ghettos in occupied Poland, particularly the major ones, were created after the battle of Britain, and were a reaction to the failure to bring the war with Britain to a satisfactory conclusion. If that war had ended in the summer of 1940, allowing an orderly transfer of Jews out of Europe to proceed, it is most likely that the ghettos in Poland would never have been created.

Here is a list of ghettos in German-occupied Poland, giving the dates of their creation. You will see that the majority were created in 1940 and 1941:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_ghe ... ied_Poland

Here are articles on each of the five major urban ghettos created before Barbarossa, in order of their creation:

Lodz Ghetto, created 1 May 1940: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%81%C3%B3d%C5%BA_Ghetto

When German forces occupied Łódź in September 1939, the city had a population of 672,000 people, over one-third of them (233,000) Jews. Łódź was annexed directly to the Warthegau region of the Reich and renamed Litzmannstadt in honour of a German general, Karl Litzmann, who had led German forces in the area in 1914. As such, the city was to undergo a process of Aryanization: the Jewish population was to be expelled to the Generalgouvernement and the Polish population was to be reduced significantly and transformed into a slave labour force.

First mention of the establishment of a ghetto appears in an order dated 10 December 1939, which spoke of a temporary gathering point for local Jews to ease the deportation process. By 1 October 1940, the deportation was to have been completed, and the city was to have been Judenfrei (free of Jews).

This set in motion a long series of anti-Jewish measures (as well as anti-Polish measures), by which Jews were stripped of their businesses and possessions, and forced to wear the yellow badge. Since the invasion, many Jews, particularly the intellectual and political leadership, fled to the area of the General government or eastward to Soviet-occupied Poland. On 8 February 1940, Jewish residence was limited to specific streets in the Old City of Łódź and the adjacent Baluty Quarter, the areas that would later become the ghetto. A Nazi-sponsored pogrom on 1 March in which many Jews were killed, expedited the relocation, and over the next two months, wooden and wire fences were erected around the area to cut it off from the rest of the city. Jews were formally sealed into the ghetto on 1 May of that year.

Warsaw Ghetto, created 16 October 1940: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Ghetto

The Warsaw Ghetto was established by the German Governor-General Hans Frank on October 16, 1940. Frank ordered Jews in Warsaw and its suburbs rounded up and herded into the Ghetto. At this time, the population in the Ghetto was estimated to be 400,000 people, about 30%[5] of the population of Warsaw; however, the size of the Ghetto was about 2.4%[6] of the size of Warsaw. The ghetto was split into two areas, the "small ghetto", generally inhabited by richer Jews and the "large ghetto", where conditions were more difficult; the two ghettos were linked by a single footbridge. The Nazis then closed the Warsaw Ghetto to the outside world on November 16, 1940 by building a wall topped with barbed wire, and deploying armed guards

Krakow Ghetto, created 3 March 1941: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krak%C3%B3w_Ghetto

Before the German invasion of Poland, Kraków (Cracow) was an influential cultural centre for the 60,000–80,000 Polish Jews who had lived there since the 13th century.[2] Persecution of the Jewish population of Kraków began soon after the German troops entered the city on 1 September 1939, in the course of their invasion of Poland. Jews were obliged to take part in forced labor from September on. In November 1939, all Jews 12 years or older were required to wear identifying armbands. Throughout Kraków, synagogues were ordered closed and all their relics and valuables turned over to the Nazi authorities.[2]

By May 1940, the Nazi occupation authority announced that Kraków should become the "cleanest" city in the General Government (an occupied, but unannexed part of Poland). Massive deportation of Jews from the city were ordered. Of the more than 68,000 Jews in Kraków when the Germans invaded, only 15,000 workers and their families were permitted to remain. All other Jews were ordered out of the city, to be resettled into surrounding rural areas.[2]

The Kraków Ghetto was formally established on 3 March 1941 in the Podgórze district, not in the Jewish district of Kazimierz.

Lublin Ghetto, created 24 March 1941: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lublin_Ghetto

Already in 1940, before the actual ghetto was opened, the SS and Police Leader Odilo Globocnik (the SS district-commander who also set up the nearby Jewish reservation), began to move the Lublin Jews away from his staff headquarters and into a new area set up for this purpose. Ten thousand Jews had been expelled from Lublin to the rural surroundings of the town in early March.[5]

The Ghetto, referred to as the Jewish quarter or Wohngebiet der Juden, was opened on March 24, 1941. The expulsion and ghettoization of Jews was decided in early March when the Wehrmacht troops, preparing for the invasion of the Soviet Union, needed housing close to the Nazi-Soviet demarcation line.[5]

Radom Ghetto, created 7 April 1941: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radom_Ghetto

Already in 1940, before the actual ghetto was opened, the SS and Police Leader Odilo Globocnik (the SS district-commander who also set up the nearby Jewish reservation), began to move the Lublin Jews away from his staff headquarters and into a new area set up for this purpose. Ten thousand Jews had been expelled from Lublin to the rural surroundings of the town in early March.[5]

The Ghetto, referred to as the Jewish quarter or Wohngebiet der Juden, was opened on March 24, 1941. The expulsion and ghettoization of Jews was decided in early March when the Wehrmacht troops, preparing for the invasion of the Soviet Union, needed housing close to the Nazi-Soviet demarcation line.[5]

As you see, almost all the major ghettos were created after the failure to knock Britain out of the war. They were created in a situation where the war with Britain continued with all that that implied, especially the continuation of the blockade of German-occupied Europe. The preparations for Barbarossa also played a role in the creation of the Polish ghettos.

It is reasonable to conclude that if the state of war with Britain had been ended in the summer of 1940, there would have been no need to seal off the bulk of the Jewish population of Poland in closed ghettos.

[David Thompson]

Two off-topic commentary posts, which added nothing of informational value to this discussion, were removed by the moderator - DT.

[waldzee]

Maybe its time we all 'put on our hats & go home for the evening'( myself included) as they said in 1950's Britian.
My apologies for any slight caused by my deleted post- I still feel that Michael's abilty to assemble detail, combined with Jon's abilty to draw the correct conclusions, whould make a 'formitablealliance'. ( like, err, Monty & Patton...)
Having moderated int he past, Jon, its tough to know how far to let the debate run.

[michael mills]

Waldzee,

You seem to believe that my conclusions are not justified by the data that I present in support of them.

Perhaps you could provide a detailed analysis of how my conclusions are not supported by my data, rather than just a proclamation that they "do not feel right".

For example, I have pointed out that the Jewish policy of the National Socialist Government of Germany since its accession to power in Jnauary 1939 had been based on the concept of expelling all Jews from Germany and the parts of Europe under German cointrol or influence, and sending them to destinations outside Europe. I have pointed out that that policy was still in force in the summer of 1940, when Hitler offered Britain terms for ending the state of war between Britain and Germany, and indeed continued in force until late in 1941. I have further pointed out that the policy of expulsion was not consistent with a pre-exisitng intention to physically exterminate all Jews under German control, since the process of expulsion removed them from that control.

On the basis of that historical fact, I concluded that if Britain had accepted Hitler's terms in the summer of 1940, the policy of expelling Jews from Europe would have continued, and indeed could very well have succeeded in removing all Jews from the German sphere of influence, given that Britain could have been required under the peace terms to facilitate the compulsory Jewish emigration by providing logistical support.

If you have hard data that invalidate my conclusion, please present it. And I mean hard data, based on a detailed and reasoned analysis of the development of the German Government's Jewish policy from 1933 to 1941, including an analysis of the objective factors that caused the German Government to make the decisions it did at the various stages in the development of its policy. Not vague feelings based on the perception that the German leaders were not Christian gentlemen.

[waldzee]

Always remember that if the Austro-Hungarian Empire Administration had taken a step back from the ‘Big Debate’ in the summer of 1914 we wouldn’t be having this discussion!
Time to call it a Sunday..

[little grey rabbit]

As I understand from Waldzee's mention of the Peel commission it is probable that the doors of Palestine were locked by the British to manage Arab tensions within its empire - making peace with Germany would not alter that. It took the Holocaust to partially unlock those doors. I seem to remember that some of the money raised during the war in America to rescue Jews actually was diverted to raise money for the Palestine Jewish militias.

However, as far as I understand it, Himmler's principle objection to migration to Palestine was that it would interfere with their Arab politics, but the Arab politics were only being run to undermine Britain.

Hans Mommsen has the following:
From Weimar to Auschwitz - pp244-245

The debates of late 1939 and early 1940 reveal that there was as yet no single, comprehensive programme of persecution. In March 1940 Frank stressed that the deportation of jews from the Old Reich could be achieved only after the war. One new feature was the fact that emigration, including forced emigration, was no longer regarded as the only 'solution' because there were now more than 3 million Jews under German rule. The various departemtns concerned therefore produced schemes for the creation of a 'Jewish reservation'. The Ostministerium (Ministry for the Occupied Eastern Territories) suggested that such a 'reservation' whould be created along the German-Soviet demarcation line. This potential solution, which was supported by Hitler, was taken up eagerly by Eichmann, who was responsible for the deportation programme. The Nisko project and similar attempts failed not so much because of the objections of Frank but because of catastrophically inept organization. On 24 March 1940 Göring responded by prohibiting further deportations from the Old Reich.

It is certain that the reservation plans were not intended for implementation until after the war. On 25 June 1940 the representative of the Reich Association of Jews in Germany was informed of a plan to settle vast numbers of Jews in some as yet undesignated colonial reservation area; at this stage Eichmann still favoured an extensive programme of emigration of Palestine [footnote: see Kulka, The Jewish Question, vol 1, Document 51, pp 501-3; notes by Dr Eppstein on 25 June 1940 and 3 July 1940 concerning discussions in the RSHA ] The scheme was to involve the Jewish communities of the Old Reich, Austria, the Protectorate, the Generalgouvernment, Scandinavia and western Europe, including Britain.
.....There is no basis for the argument that the Madagascar project had the subjective function of concealing the regime's intention to annihilate the Jews.

We are generally told that the defeat before Moscow switched Nazi plans from expulsion to extermination. So peace with Britain must surely have opened up other opportunities besides beyond the Urals.

[Terry Duncan]

For example, I have pointed out that the Jewish policy of the National Socialist Government of Germany since its accession to power in Jnauary 1939 had been based on the concept of expelling all Jews from Germany and the parts of Europe under German cointrol or influence, and sending them to destinations outside Europe.

So lets see the figures they achieved? The claim is easy to make, and by itself means nothing. How many Jews were there in the Nazi controlled areas, and how many were able to leave? Remember, German controlled areas had a border with Switzerland and Spain if expulsion really were an objective.

I have further pointed out that the policy of expulsion was not consistent with a pre-exisitng intention to physically exterminate all Jews under German control, since the process of expulsion removed them from that control.

It also does not mean that they had not decided to kill any that remained either. The two are not mutually exclusive.

If you have hard data that invalidate my conclusion, please present it.

Given the entire body of knowledge of the Nazi actions towards the Jews, it is highly likely a large number were going to die, especially as Germany had no means to compell other states to accept them - and never made it clear a 'take them or we will kill them' policy would begin. This does not invalidate your ideas, it simply means that they are not the most probable outcome if we consider everything. At best the Nazi's were ambivalent, they were neither desperately forceful at expelling Jews, not very reluctant to start killing them. If half the effort that went into killing them had been put into expelling them, even by smuggling them abroad, the death toll would have been nowhere near what it was. At worst, its a cynical ploy to allow a 'well we tried to get rid of them first' defence in a negotiated settlement to a war. Evidence suggests the solution was actually harmful to the German war effort, yet even that didnt put a stop to it.

[waldzee]

[quote="little grey rabbit"]As I understand from Waldzee's mention of the Peel commission it is probable that the doors of Palestine were locked by the British to manage Arab tensions within its empire - making peace with Germany would not alter that. It took the Holocaust to partially unlock those doors. I seem to remember that some of the money raised during the war in America to rescue Jews actually was diverted to raise money for the Palestine Jewish militias.

However, as far as I understand it, Himmler's principle objection to migration to Palestine was that it would interfere with their Arab politics, but the Arab politics were only being run to undermine Britain. ..."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Peel commission partition plan:
http://www.passia.org/palestine_facts/M ... -plan.html
& summary( I can't find the report on line)http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jso ... 15344.html

[waldzee]

The Peel commission report :
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jso ... peel1.html
If the link fails , you can search it as "peel royal commision of enquiry

[michael mills]

.....There is no basis for the argument that the Madagascar project had the subjective function of concealing the regime's intention to annihilate the Jews.

Amen.

I should point out that Mommsen is a Leftist historian, in no way an apologist for the National Socialist regime.

Mommsen believes that the National Socialist Government of Germany did not have any pre-existing intention of physically exterminationg the Jews under its control, its aim being to expel them, and it only resorted to extermination after the failure to defeat the Soviet Union, which became apparent at the end of 1941, and the resulting impossibility of implementing its deportation plans.

It is certain that the reservation plans were not intended for implementation until after the war.

The logical clonclusion from that is that if the German-British war had ended in 1940, the implementation of the reservation plans could have commenced, removing the objective imperative for extermination, namely the existence of a large number of Jews in the German living space with nowhere to send them.

[David Thompson]

Three off-topic opinion posts from JonS were removed by the moderator - DT.

[michael mills]

Given the entire body of knowledge of the Nazi actions towards the Jews, it is highly likely a large number were going to die, especially as Germany had no means to compell other states to accept them - and never made it clear a 'take them or we will kill them' policy would begin. This does not invalidate your ideas, it simply means that they are not the most probable outcome if we consider everything. At best the Nazi's were ambivalent, they were neither desperately forceful at expelling Jews, not very reluctant to start killing them. If half the effort that went into killing them had been put into expelling them, even by smuggling them abroad, the death toll would have been nowhere near what it was. At worst, its a cynical ploy to allow a 'well we tried to get rid of them first' defence in a negotiated settlement to a war. Evidence suggests the solution was actually harmful to the German war effort, yet even that didnt put a stop to it.

I asked for hard data, not an expression of opinion. An example of hard data is the post by Little Grey Rabbit, which contained the important information that in June 1940 the German authorities were informing German Jewish leaders of a plan to transport large numbers of German Jews to a colonial destination.

So lets see the figures they achieved? The claim is easy to make, and by itself means nothing. How many Jews were there in the Nazi controlled areas, and how many were able to leave? Remember, German controlled areas had a border with Switzerland and Spain if expulsion really were an objective.

Over half the Jews of Germany and Austria had emigrated before the outbreak of war. A smaller proportion managed to emigrate from Czechia.

The priority of the German Government was to make Greater Germany "Jew-free" first, before other areas under German control such as central Poland. For that reason it did not promote the emigration of Jews from occupied Poland, since that would compete with the ongoing emigration from Greater Germany, given the limited emigration opportunities available while germany was still at war. But by the same token it did not prevent it either; a relatively large number of Jews was allowed to leave Poland for Palestine, even as late as 1942.

As for Switzerland, it kept its borders firmly closed, especially to Jews trying to emigrate from Germany.