Red Army rape row

[Sergey]

Dear mr.Thompson,

thank you for your kind replay. I find it very interesting. And generally your approach is reasonable. However, apparently you understand your obedient servant in the wrong way. So, I would like to clarify my position.

(1) The current rate of forcible rapes in St. Louis has nothing to do with the rate of forcible rates in eastern Europe in 1944-45.

Of course it has not. The only purpose is to find out the right definition of the term 'mass rapes'.

(2) You wrote:

According to this source there are 122.8 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants in 2002 in St.Louis. This level means 1228 rapes for 1 mln and 24560 rapes for 20mln.

The 2002 rate of forcible rapes in St. Louis is an unreliable indicator of the average rate of forcible rates in the United States.

But I didn't try to present Lt.Louis statistics as typical for the USA. I regarded an imaginary situation: a professor gives a lecture in St.Louis and he said (for example):

There was a huge wave of rapes in Germany in 1944-45. Though according to some estimates the rape level was about the same as in our city we can not compare Germany in 1944-45 and St.Louis now. Now we can not speak about a huge wave of rapes in St.Louis but definitely it happened in Gemany. The level of rapes here was indeed huge.

(3) Furthermore, the 2002 St. Louis statistics you cited to at http://www.bestplaces.net/docs/studies/crime3.aspx are not actual, but only estimates.

And in the case with Germany we deal with estimates only. Indeed actual numbers could be lower or hugher in this or that year.

It appears to me that you are trying to distract the readers from the issue of rapes in 1944-45 eastern Europe by raising questions about present day US rape statistics, and you are trying to establish an unrealistically high rape rate in the present day US to make your point.

No, you are not right mr.Thompson. As I have said the only purpose is establishing a logical definition for the term 'mass rapes'.

(4) Trying to rig the statistical basis for your calculations like this suggests either (a) you know little or nothing about statistics; or (b) your posts are a deliberate piece of agitprop. In my opinion, (b) is the most likely explanation...

US statistics is avalable for anybody. It is impossible 'to rig' it. As I'm nmathematician then I am rather well aware about statistical matters (at least on theoretical level). Agitprop? I propose a calm, serious discussion in academic manner without labels.

Well mr.Thompson, how would you define the term 'mass rapes'? Give me your definition. What methodology would you apply?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape

According to a news report on BBC One presented in 12 November 2007, there were 85,000 women raped in the UK in the previous year, equating to about 230 cases every day. According to that report one of every 200 women in the UK was raped in 2006. The report also showed that only 800 persons were convicted in rape crimes that same year.

Mr.Thompson, in this context, do you agree that we can speak about mass rapes in their level is significantly higher than 0.5%?

[David Thompson]

Sergey -- You wrote:

However, apparently you understand your obedient servant in the wrong way. So, I would like to clarify my position.

I've read your clarification, and I don't think I misunderstood you at all. You were trying to run a crude game of statistical thimblerig on our readers, and it didn't work. It can't be passed off as a language problem either -- your methodology was dishonest, not your explanation. Worse, it took place immediately after I had warned you (at http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 5#p1564565) against using "rural customs of discourse" -- only to have you turn around and try to play our readers for a bunch of "rubes" with that ill-conceived statistical rubbish in your post at http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 2#p1566662.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_game
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/rube

If you actually want to get to the root of this problem (which I'm starting to seriously doubt), we need to know what the rape rate was in eastern Europe before, during and after 1945. Stop dreaming of polemical "dances of the seven veils," and give our readers something useful to work with.

We should start with the official Soviet statistics for reported rapes in the 1944-45 period in eastern Europe, but no one has been able (or willing) to produce them so far. Nor do we have any figures at all for courts-martial or other punishments of rapes in the Red Army. We do know that the problem was serious and at least some commanders took it seriously, because Oleg has provided Red Army orders authorizing summary executions for the offense. I take this at face value -- there was a problem and, to their credit and the credit of their country, those commanders wanted the problem remedied. Unfortunately, the information stops there, and there is no more information available from the governing authority -- the USSR. Whether the successor government in possession of the records of the former USSR -- the Russian federation -- is unable, unwilling, or simply refuses to produce those 65 year-old records is an open question. We don't know and they won't say.

There are scores of anecdotal accounts from eastern Germany of mass rapes by the Red Army in the 1944-45 period. Because the German government was disintegrating, the statistics are fragmentary, and we've already seen the problems with the attempts by popular western writers at statistical extrapolation (for example, from Berlin to the rural and urban areas of East Prussia, Pomerania. and Silesia). Consequently, the anecdotal accounts are suggestive, but give us no basis for a trustworthy statistical conclusion. And we don't have anything at all from Poland during the period.

There may be statistics for the rape rates in these areas prior to 1950, but we haven't seen them. These would be useful for comparing the pre- and post-war periods with the 1944-45 period. We know the inhabitants at the time -- who were alarmed enough to flee by the millions -- thought they were very bad, and they've said so.

So if there are any sourced facts (and I'm not talking about febrile "It could be a fantasy," "What if they forged it;" "The rapes were committed by aliens from the future, dressed in Soviet uniforms" speculations) let's have a look at them.

Otherwise, don't waste our time.

[Sergey]

Dear mr.Thompson,

I propose a calm, serious discussion in an academic manner. Are you ready? I try to answer your question and in turn I'm waiting for an answer to my one.

You wrote

We should start with the official Soviet statistics for reported rapes in the 1944-45 period in eastern Europe, but no one has been able (or willing) to produce them so far. Nor do we have any figures at all for courts-martial or other punishments of rapes in the Red Army.

Of course you are right. But the statistics is unawailable for me and to historians as well. I think that the reasons are mainly political.

By the way only relatively recently, in 2006 we became aware about similar statistics in the UK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... urder.html

The full extent of the crime wave that the "overpaid, oversexed and over here" American forces brought to wartime Britain is disclosed today.

Home Office files kept secret for 60 years show that GIs committed 26 murders, 31 manslaughters, 22 attempted murders and more than 400 sexual offences, including 126 rapes, in the three years between their arrival and the end of the war.

They also show that American commanders allowed Herbert Morrison, the home secretary, to mislead Parliament by assuring MPs that no race discrimination was practised by US courts martial over executions for rape.

Russia is not so open country as the UK and the USA, not so democratic. So it would be logical to expect that similar data would be made public much later.

Now I repeat my question

Mr.Thompson, how would you define the term 'mass rapes'? Give me your definition please. What methodology would you apply?

Thanks in advance.

Yours, sincerely Sergey Poleshchuk.

[David Thompson]

Sergey -- You asked:

I propose a calm, serious discussion in an academic manner. Are you ready?

No. We're now on the 26th page of a conversation that's going nowhere, so I'm going somewhere else.

The object of the research sections of the forum is to exchange information, not to engage in dim wrangling as a form of diversion. Our readers are intelligent people, who have already taken the time to inform themselves on the topic under discussion and don't have a lot of time to waste playing games.

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=53962

[Sergey]

Dear mr.Thompson,

as I have said before, any forumist is free to stop any discussion at any point and even without any explanation. However, I have an impression that you agreed (completely or partially) with my definition of the term - 'mass rape'. Anyway you didn't contest it in any form

Sergey -- You asked:

I propose a calm, serious discussion in an academic manner. Are you ready?

No. We're now on the 26th page of a conversation that's going nowhere, so I'm going somewhere else.

I dare to disagree. There is a lot of information here for those who are interesting in the historical truth and who don't accept blindly (sometimes politically motivated) conclusions made by some "historians".

From my point of view the official numbers of rapes (number reported cases) is no more than a starting point just because it is very hard task to estimate the size of the hidden part (unreported cases).

The best way from my point of view is confidential interviews with women who lived during the Soviet occupation in Gemany. Millions such women appeared in West Germany soon after the end of the war. And in 1989 there were hundreds thousands of those who lived that time. Confidential interviews could show the real proportion of rapes. But I'm unaware about the result of such interviews (if they ever happened). Such interviews could be done in other East European countries - in Hungary, Poland, Czech republic.

I use an expression 'I am unaware' in the meaning - during the long period I tried in vain to find results of such interviews.

The object of the research sections of the forum is to exchange information, not to engage in dim wrangling as a form of diversion. Our readers are intelligent people, who have already taken the time to inform themselves on the topic under discussion and don't have a lot of time to waste playing games.

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=53962

Dear mr.Thompson, you are a moderator of this Forum and I respect your authority. As I'm ready to obey the rules then there is no another option for me as to stop the discussion.

However, I hope that maybe later you mr.Thompson would look at this situation at another angle and we would be able to continue the discussion.

Yours, sincerely, Sergey.

[Sergey]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osmar_White

Osmar Egmont Dorkin White (2 April 1909 – May 1991) was an Australian journalist, war correspondent and writer.

http://books.google.com/books?id=tWy1sB ... &q&f=false

White, Osmar (2003), Conquerors' Road: An Eyewitness Report of Germany 1945, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0521537517

p.198

The discipline of the Red Army is good. There is no more looting, rape or bullying than in any zone of occupation. Wild stories of brutality arise from magnification and distortion of individual instances, given verisimilitude by the Czechs' nervousness of the Russian soldiers' exuberant manners and their liking for vodka.'
One woman who told me the most hair-raising tales of Russian brutality in Prague was forced in the end to admit that the only evidence she had seen with her own eyes was drunken Russian officers firing pistols into the air or shooting at bottles.

[LWD]

A quick look at the biography you linked makes it look like he wasn't in eastern Euripe for very long or that he spent much time in the Soviet occupation zone as it notes he was with Patton. In any case this is one annecdoatal account of a specific city not in Germany. Furthermore it was in a situation where one could expect the Soviets to be on thier best behaviour. It's a data point but not a very strong one.

[Sergey]

A quick look at the biography you linked makes it look like he wasn't in eastern Euripe for very long or that he spent much time in the Soviet occupation zone as it notes he was with Patton. In any case this is one annecdoatal account of a specific city not in Germany. Furthermore it was in a situation where one could expect the Soviets to be on thier best behaviour. It's a data point but not a very strong one.

LDW,

our friend mr.Thompson wrote

We are talking about rapes in Germany and eastern Europe during a specific time period -- 1944 and 1945.

So Czechoslovakia is propper country in the context of this thread.

Osmar White is a reliable witness. He was on the ground that time and he expressed his opinion based on own observations.

[LWD]

.... It's a data point but not a very strong one.

LDW,
our friend mr.Thompson wrote

We are talking about rapes in Germany and eastern Europe during a specific time period -- 1944 and 1945.

So Czechoslovakia is propper country in the context of this thread.
Osmar White is a reliable witness. He was on the ground that time and he expressed his opinion based on own observations.

However this is essentially an annecdotal data point. Osmar White may indeed be a trust worthy reporter but he was not in the area to witness the events. Furthermore his investigations into them seem to have been not only limited to a single location (Prague) and of limited nature both in time and in the number of people he talked to. Thus he is of rather limited utility in dicussing the larger issues and certainly doesn't provide any worthwhile statistical information.

[Sergey]

However this is essentially an annecdotal data point. Osmar White may indeed be a trust worthy reporter but he was not in the area to witness the events. Furthermore his investigations into them seem to have been not only limited to a single location (Prague) and of limited nature both in time and in the number of people he talked to. Thus he is of rather limited utility in dicussing the larger issues and certainly doesn't provide any worthwhile statistical information.

But Osmar White apparently conversated with many people in Prague. As an experienced journalist he was able to form a good estimate of the real situation. And anyway his point of view should be taken into account.

[LWD]

However this is essentially an annecdotal data point. Osmar White may indeed be a trust worthy reporter but he was not in the area to witness the events. Furthermore his investigations into them seem to have been not only limited to a single location (Prague) and of limited nature both in time and in the number of people he talked to. Thus he is of rather limited utility in dicussing the larger issues and certainly doesn't provide any worthwhile statistical information.

But Osmar White apparently conversated with many people in Prague.

Did he? What do you consider many? How many did he talk to? How independent were they? Who were they? How reliable were they?

As an experienced journalist he was able to form a good estimate of the real situation.

How much experiance did he have in this sort of situation (i.e. investigating war crimes)? That doesn't seem to have been his forte certainly.

And anyway his point of view should be taken into account.

Indeed it's a data point but it's not clear it's of anymore value than some of the other reports mentioned above. It's certainly a long way from suppllieing anything like a statistical basis to address the topic at hand.

[Kajtmaz]

German Woman Writes Ground-Breaking Account of WW2 Rape

14 Tage lebenslänglich

Warum war ich bloß ein Mädchen? - Gabi Köpp

[Sergey]

German Woman Writes Ground-Breaking Account of WW2 Rape

14 Tage lebenslänglich

Warum war ich bloß ein Mädchen? - Gabi Köpp

Dear Kajtmaz,

it is a bitter personal story. Such tragedies alas happened and not only in Germany. Noone denies it. Likely there were tousands, even tens thousands such cases as previous article you kindly proposed to read suggests. However, the case doesn't give a sufficient ground to claim that mass rapes in Germany happened.

As I have saud before, the most informative data for conclusions would be results of confidential interviews with women who lived during the Soviet occupation. Proportion of those who confess that they were raped would be very valuable to make propper judgements.

I hope you agree with me on this point. If not then please explain why.

Are you aware about results of such interviews and did they happen?

[thom]

However, the case doesn't give a sufficient ground to claim that mass rapes in Germany happened.

Sergey did you contact Freiburg already to purchase the copies from primary sources I recommended? It is not much of an effort to get informed yourself before continuing this endless discussion.

[Sergey]

However, the case doesn't give a sufficient ground to claim that mass rapes in Germany happened.

Sergey did you contact Freiburg already to purchase the copies from primary sources I recommended? It is not much of an effort to get informed yourself before continuing this endless discussion.

Dear Thom,

I'm not a historian. I'm just an ordinary Russian, mathematician by education and I'm working now in the area of industrial automation.

So why would I order and buy something that contain something maybe absolutely unrelated to our discussion.

If the documents describe mass rape with the scale compatible with the alleged rape in Monte Cassino then no doubt the description would be available in many sources including internet. So why should I spend money?

If the documents describe some individual cases then they are not so valuable in the context of our discussion. No doubt that individual cases happened. So why should I spend money?

If the documents contain Goebbels agitprop then moreover it would be illogical for me to spent money.

Have you at hands at least a brief desctiption of the content of the documents that you propose? If not, then I appreciate your joke. If yes then tell about it at least in few words. It is a fair question, is it?