How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

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weiwensg
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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#16

Post by weiwensg » 11 Jun 2021, 17:14

gebhk wrote:
10 Jun 2021, 13:36
Thus the holocaust (specifically, the mass murder of Jews) , based on the database, appears to be an independent factor. However I would disagree with the final conclusion in your video (I appreciate is is intended to be in jest): the clear lesson in the paper is not 'be nice to your Jewish neighbours' but, ij fact, 'be nice to your local bureaucrat'!
Thanks for reading the paper!

If I can disagree (again in jest), the clear lesson is to ask your bureaucrat to be nice to Jews... I mean, the middle class. (Assuming you don't want to live in a Communist society)

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#17

Post by weiwensg » 11 Jun 2021, 17:18

snpol wrote:
08 Jun 2021, 21:49
Let's look at Western Siberia that was not occupied by the Germans. There are 3 mostly industrial regions with a lot of plants, factories, coal mines and numerous working class: Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo.
Support of the Communists in Omsk and Novosibirsk is very high, while in nearby Kemerovo it is quite low...
I mean that support of the Communists in Russia generally depends on many factors and the Holocaust in this context is irrelevant.
I agree with gebhk's comment "Regardless of that, you won't be able to undermine the findings of a multi-variate analysis with univariate examples as you have attempted previously."

The authors aren't saying that the Holocaust is the only factor (or even a large factor) that determines support for the Communist party. If you read their paper, you'll notice that they control for as many factors as they can (using a statistical technique known as regression). Instead, the authors show that the Holocaust is one factor that determines such support.


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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#18

Post by gebhk » 11 Jun 2021, 17:53

Hi weiwensg
If I can disagree (again in jest), the clear lesson is to ask your bureaucrat to be nice to Jews... I mean, the middle class. (Assuming you don't want to live in a Communist society)
I don't think that is right either. For one thing the bureaucrats were part of the middle class. And more importantly perhaps, if I am reading the pie charts correctly, that is where the Jews were most over-represented. This rather dovetails with another study I came across while looking for the Acemoglu et al paper. This looked at the social origins of the Soviet middle class. They showed that the survivors of the pre-revolution middle classes (and their descendants) - small landowners, professionals etc tended to follow professional careers as their route to social climbing - medicine, technology, engineering, architecture etc leaving the other stream - the party structure and government administration: the machinery of the one-party state if you will, more open to other groups and therefore also Jews.

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#19

Post by weiwensg » 11 Jun 2021, 23:20

gebhk wrote:
11 Jun 2021, 17:53
I don't think that is right either. For one thing the bureaucrats were part of the middle class. And more importantly perhaps, if I am reading the pie charts correctly, that is where the Jews were most over-represented. This rather dovetails with another study I came across while looking for the Acemoglu et al paper. This looked at the social origins of the Soviet middle class. They showed that the survivors of the pre-revolution middle classes (and their descendants) - small landowners, professionals etc tended to follow professional careers as their route to social climbing - medicine, technology, engineering, architecture etc leaving the other stream - the party structure and government administration: the machinery of the one-party state if you will, more open to other groups and therefore also Jews.
Ah, I see what you mean, thanks for explaining. (And my disagreement was in jest)

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#20

Post by snpol » 12 Jun 2021, 00:24

weiwensg wrote:
11 Jun 2021, 17:18
snpol wrote:
08 Jun 2021, 21:49
Let's look at Western Siberia that was not occupied by the Germans. There are 3 mostly industrial regions with a lot of plants, factories, coal mines and numerous working class: Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo.
Support of the Communists in Omsk and Novosibirsk is very high, while in nearby Kemerovo it is quite low...
I mean that support of the Communists in Russia generally depends on many factors and the Holocaust in this context is irrelevant.
I agree with gebhk's comment "Regardless of that, you won't be able to undermine the findings of a multi-variate analysis with univariate examples as you have attempted previously."

The authors aren't saying that the Holocaust is the only factor (or even a large factor) that determines support for the Communist party. If you read their paper, you'll notice that they control for as many factors as they can (using a statistical technique known as regression). Instead, the authors show that the Holocaust is one factor that determines such support.
Alas only abstract of the study is freely available.
We document a statistical association between the severity of the persecution, displacement and mass murder of Jews by the Nazis during World War II and long-run economic and political outcomes within Russia. Cities that experienced the Holocaust most intensely have grown less, and both cities and administrative districts (oblasts) where the Holocaust had the largest impact have worse economic and political outcomes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. We provide evidence that the lasting impact of the Holocaust may be attributable to a permanent change it induced in the social structure across different regions of Russia.
The study is very doubtful because importance of the Holocaust in Russia is hugely overestimated. Just a few tens thousands of Russian Jews were killed. In huge Russia it is a drop in the ocean. At the same time millions of (ethnically) Russians were killed, murdered, died as soldiers on the front. Only 1/4 of men from native village of my parents who went to the war returned.
Mass emigration of Jews from Russia in 90's was much more important but it was not a tragedy.
The Russians are no less intellectually gifted than the Jews. Ethnically Russian Chess champions as Alekhin and Karpov demonstrate it.
I was born in Kaluga area not far from the native village of Marshall Zhukov (also gifted soldier) and not far from the place where famous Russian mathematician Chebyshev was born.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pafnuty_Chebyshev
I never voted for mr.Putin and his party of Crooks and Thieves but use to vote for Communists. Not because I'm supporter of the communist idea but because the Communist party in Russia is less corrupted from parties represented in the Parliament.
The authors of the study are unaware about Russian realities and political environment. They from my point of view make absurd, illogical conclusions. It is IMHO pseudo-scientific study.

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#21

Post by weiwensg » 12 Jun 2021, 02:27

snpol wrote:
12 Jun 2021, 00:24
Alas only abstract of the study is freely available.
You can find the full study on Acemoglu's website: https://economics.mit.edu/files/8047

Acemoglu states that most if not all Jews in German-held Russia were killed. For example:
"Altogether, the Einsatzgruppen report 216 incidents. For 175
of these incidents the reports give a specific number of victims,
totalling 156,401. Of these, 86% are reported to be Jews (which by
all accounts is a small subset of thetotal numberof Jewishvictims
of the German occupation). We matched the town names given
in the Einsatzgruppen reports to an extended sample of Russian,
Ukrainian, and Belarussian cities. In total, we are able to identify
42 towns for which we have information on the number of
Jews in 1939, 8 of which are in Russia, the remainder in Ukraine
and Belarus. Figure VI gives a scatterplot of the number of Jews
reportedly killed as a percentage of the 1939 population over the
percentage of Jewish population in 1939"
Are there any issues with his data?

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#22

Post by gebhk » 12 Jun 2021, 11:20

Hi Snpol
It is IMHO pseudo-scientific study.
It is not a scientific study at all nor does it claim to be. It is a statistical analysis of data and the posing of some hypotheses based upon it. So, at most, we can call it the first step in a scientific study which, I think we all agree, no one wants completed as it would involve selectively murdering swathes of people under controlled conditions to test the hypotheses. The fact that Acemoglu et al know little or nothing of current Russian realities is a plus as it makes their analysis likely more objective.

I think the point you might be missing is that the present or previous ability of Russians is not in question. The central plank of Acemoglu et al's explanation is that the sudden heavy losses of the middle class white collar workers in the affected areas created an effect additional to those that took place elsewhere. The important thing is not that there were no more Jews or that Russians couldn't replace them. It is that the one-off event triggered a change in future development of those cities/areas. This explanation is supported by the fact that since the war the variance between the affected and unaffected areas has grown rather than diminished despite the fact that, presumably, no one is killing Jews (or, more to the point, white collar workers) continuously and on an industrial scale throughout this time.

The nearest analogy I can think of is of a group of trees, all of the same age, size and species, If at some point you saw off the tip of one it will henceforth grow differently to the others. It is not that that tree is inherently weaker or different - it has just experienced an event which the others did not and that has altered the course of its development.

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#23

Post by snpol » 12 Jun 2021, 11:23

weiwensg wrote:
12 Jun 2021, 02:27
snpol wrote:
12 Jun 2021, 00:24
Alas only abstract of the study is freely available.
You can find the full study on Acemoglu's website: https://economics.mit.edu/files/8047
I briefly looked at the study and found it even more absurd and pseudo-scientific than I imagined.
Let's look at Ukraine. There were much more victims of the Holocaust (I mean percentage and absolute numbers) than in Russian Federation. But electoral support of the Communists in Ukraine was low after collapse of the Soviet union and now the Communist party is forbidden. At the same time GDP per capita in Ukraine 3 times lower than in Russia.
But pseudo-scientific 'method' invented by the author predicts massive support of the Communist party in Ukraine.
weiwensg wrote:
12 Jun 2021, 02:27
Acemoglu states that most if not all Jews in German-held Russia were killed.
First of all majority of Jews that lived on the territory of Russian Federation later occupied by Germany managed to flee. So from formal point of view not all Jew were killed.
If we regard Jews remained on the territory of Russian Federation under German control then it was not only native population but also huge number of refugees from Ukraine and Belarus.
The correct study should include the following data
- Number of Jews lived in 1941 on the occupied territory of Russian Federation that were victims of the Holocaust.
I don't see respective number. Indeed German special units executed a lot of people on Russian territory but it doesn't mean that they all (or almost all) were namely Russian Jews. The number could include Jewish refugees from Ukraine and Belarus. No doubt there was a lot of Gypsies. There was a lot of Partisans in Russia, especially in endless forests. The Germans routinely executed supporters of partisans in big numbers.
So the conclusion made by the authors is incorrect both from formal and factual point of view.

I would like to quote the study - p.991
On average, 2.81% of the Russian (core) middle class were Jewish.
It is so insignificant number that if even Hitler managed to murder all Russian Jews then the middle class would not be affected in any substantial way.
The middle class in modern Russia is big enough and ethnically is mostly Russian. Life goes on. Places occupied previously by Jews are occupied now by others. So effect of the Holocaust in Russia initially negative now in fact vanished (in politics and economy).

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#24

Post by gebhk » 12 Jun 2021, 14:59

Alas hurling abuse does not change the facts. There is no pseudo science or any science at all nor do the authors claim there is. Nor have the authors invented any scientific or any other 'method' They have applied a recognised and valid statistical analysis to data which has shown what it has shown. They also offer some hypotheses as to the mechanisms. You may disagree with those hypotheses but have so far failed to provide an alternative one.
So effect of the Holocaust in Russia initially negative now in fact vanished (in politics and economy).
And yet clearly it has not. Indeed not only has its not vanished but has, in fact, grown over time. Just because you don't want to believe it doesn't make it not so. Fervent belief, alas, does not make the facts go away.
Let's look at Ukraine. There were much more victims of the Holocaust (I mean percentage and absolute numbers) than in Russian Federation. But electoral support of the Communists in Ukraine was low after collapse of the Soviet union and now the Communist party is forbidden. At the same time GDP per capita in Ukraine 3 times lower than in Russia.
But pseudo-scientific 'method' invented by the author predicts massive support of the Communist party in Ukraine.
In fact, in the main, the hypothesis (not the 'method') is substantially supported by this example - the GDP is lower. That it has not translated into votes for the communists is - to hypothesize - because Ukraina is a seperate country where firstly communism is equated in many minds - as it is in Poland for example - with foreign Russian domination and oppression and, secondly, is in any event not an electoral option now for Ukrainians, as you yourself point out. A good reason why analysis should be limited, as far as possible, to comparable entities.
It is so insignificant number that if even Hitler managed to murder all Russian Jews then the middle class would not be affected in any substantial way.
And that would be a reasonable argument if the Jews were evenly distributed but they were not - a point you not so long ago stressed yourself. Therefore the loss of Jews had an uneven impact on the middle classes of different regions and the authors have found a clear independent relationship between those losses and subsequent evolution.
The middle class in modern Russia is big enough and ethnically is mostly Russian.
Yes, but that is not really relevant - it cannot change what happened in 1941-45. Since the evidence is that the effect has grown not diminished, it is likely that it is the impact at that time that was crucial.
Life goes on.
Indeed it does. But it has clearly gone on differently in the cities occupied by the Germans that had high Jewish middle class presence prior to 1941 when compared with cities that did not. If you can offer a more convincing hypothesis why this is so than that offered by Acemoglu ey al, I am keen to hear it.

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#25

Post by snpol » 12 Jun 2021, 16:06

gebhk wrote:
12 Jun 2021, 14:59
They have applied a recognised and valid statistical analysis to data which has shown what it has shown. They also offer some hypotheses as to the mechanisms. You may disagree with those hypotheses but have so far failed to provide an alternative one.
My alternative is clear from the context of my messages. Electoral support of the Communists, growth of Russian cities are not related to the Holocaust in Russian Federation in the slightest degree.
I refer you to the TABLE I (p.914) in the study.
Average population of cities occupied by Germany was 42099 and was 112593 in 1989. Growth 267,4 %
As for occupied cities with high Jewish population then
Average population was 49303 and was 125386 in 1989. Growth 254,3 %
Frankly speaking the difference is not so dramatically huge.
Why the authors believe the Holocaust affected cities grew significantly slower? I don't understand.
Now look at the second part of the Table I (p.914)
Electoral support of the Communists (1999) in the cities occupied by the Germans was 32.83% and in the occupied cities with high Jewish population it was 33.49%. They are almost identical numbers.
As for the referendum 1991 (to preserve the Soviet union) then in the occupied areas 77.84% voted YES while in the occupied areas with high Jewish population 76.74% - even less.

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Re: How the Holocaust influences Russian elections today

#26

Post by weiwensg » 12 Jun 2021, 17:10

gebhk wrote:
12 Jun 2021, 14:59
Alas hurling abuse does not change the facts. There is no pseudo science or any science at all nor do the authors claim there is. Nor have the authors invented any scientific or any other 'method' They have applied a recognised and valid statistical analysis to data which has shown what it has shown. They also offer some hypotheses as to the mechanisms. You may disagree with those hypotheses but have so far failed to provide an alternative one.
Agreed.

snpol wrote:Let's look at Ukraine. There were much more victims of the Holocaust (I mean percentage and absolute numbers) than in Russian Federation. But electoral support of the Communists in Ukraine was low after collapse of the Soviet union and now the Communist party is forbidden. At the same time GDP per capita in Ukraine 3 times lower than in Russia.
But pseudo-scientific 'method' invented by the author predicts massive support of the Communist party in Ukraine.
To add on to what gebhk said, I'd like to quote the study's explanation which says that the Holocaust in the Ukraine was very different from the Holocaust in Russia: "The territories conquered after June 1941 were administered in different ways... The fact that Ukraine was administered in such a heterogeneous way by four different entities makes our empirical strategy
more difficult to implement"

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