Some NKVD/GULAG statistics

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Karman
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#46

Post by Karman » 26 Aug 2004, 11:45

michael mills wrote:Anne Applebaum's approach is quite correct.

The statistics extracted from NKVD reports are to be regarded as proved minimum figures. The real number of victims of the GULag is certainly higher than those documented minimum figures; but as Applebaum points out, we do not have "completely satisfactory death statistics", so as yet we have no way of knowing by how much the true number of victims exceeds the documented minima.

The highest guesstimates made in the past must certainly be rejected; but the crimes of Bolshevism should not be minimised by a stubborn insistence on the minimum figures found in the Soviet-era archives.

Such minimisation would be equivalent to insisting that the number of victims of Auschwitz was only the 200-300,000 deaths documented in German reports.
I think that you are confusing press-releases with the documents for domestic use. I strictly doubt that NKVD chiefs of all levels dared to lie to their party and governmental bosses about the real situation in their see. The tricks with death rate figures would cause the tricks with food and other products allowance, with the requirements under working plan and so on and so forth. You should specify the figures first and only then trick with them. The same story happens with the total number of GULAG inmates. One could not have reported to Moscow that he had 1 zek (ZaKliuchionniy - prisoner) if he had 10 because he would have got all the products for 1 but not for 10 and 10 would have had to perform the work deemed for 1 person. And in that case the above NKVD official would have been completely screwed up for the sabotage of the social working plan. Then we should suppose that they kept double entry - one for their own use and the second for their foes who will definitely strip them of power according to the unalterable laws of history. Probably Auschwitz clerks were deeper versed in social sciences and realized from the very beginning that their business was doomed but their GULAG colleagues were illiterate and believed that Socialism was for ages. So no alternative bookkeeping was disclosed. And neither Zemskov nor those American researches were the fans of the Old Good Joe to select the friendly docs and keep the eyes blind on the docs that may besmirch His roseate imago.

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#47

Post by Topspeed » 26 Aug 2004, 12:36

I think Karman has a point here.

Death figures in Gulags were not 50-18 mio as referred in some data. They were less. The whole thing about evil Soviets or Russians will sent them in Siberia thing is over published. Figures may be in the 2.5-10 mio region. Killing as many inmates as possible served no purpose because these folks were sent to serve in mines etc.

Now what I'd like to know is how many people were massacred in communs or at their homes like the Czar family ? These killings were more random and possibly not recorded. Also I read that many deaths that occured were recorded in hospitals etc. as "pneumonia" or "suicide" even if apparently a bullet hole was in the forehead or body was badly bruced etc. ( after NKVD interrocation ). Any complete figures of these kinda mistreatments ?

regards,

Juke T


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#48

Post by Karman » 26 Aug 2004, 17:20

Topspeed wrote:I think Karman has a point here.

Death figures in Gulags were not 50-18 mio as referred in some data. They were less. The whole thing about evil Soviets or Russians will sent them in Siberia thing is over published. Figures may be in the 2.5-10 mio region. Killing as many inmates as possible served no purpose because these folks were sent to serve in mines etc.

Now what I'd like to know is how many people were massacred in communs or at their homes like the Czar family ? These killings were more random and possibly not recorded. Also I read that many deaths that occured were recorded in hospitals etc. as "pneumonia" or "suicide" even if apparently a bullet hole was in the forehead or body was badly bruced etc. ( after NKVD interrocation ). Any complete figures of these kinda mistreatments ?

regards,

Juke T
Czar's family is not a good example in this case. The Czar and his Family did were condemned by local VCHK authorities though they were slaughtered out of court and examination. So their execution was registered. Those things you are saying might (and I think did) happen but I strictly doubt that they can change the statistics much.

About the statistics. Researches can play with them. Example: in some books and hyperthyroid journalist works we can read that that brave partisan and poor POW struggled against fascism but after the war all of them were prisonned and sent to GULAG. Well, the Decision of GOKO (State Committee of Defense) No 1069cc; dated on December 27, 1941 launched the organization of filtration camps for the examination of 1. unfettered POW and soldiers and officers escaped from mousetraps 2. ranker collaboration policemen and officer of civilian administration organized by Germans on the occupied territory 3. Civilians of the conscript age who lived on the territory occupied by Germans. If we speak about the military inmates of those camps then as of March 1, 1944 the number of military servicemen who had passed through those camps constituted 354.592 people including 50.441 officers (Zemskov V.N. GuLAG. Istoriko-Sotziologicheskiy apekt. Soziologuicheskie issledovaniya 1991, #7, pp 4-5). If you like you can plus them to the other victims of the Stalin regime. So what happened to those people (ibid): 1) 294.416 of them were directed back to the Red Army. 231.034 of them (including 50.441 officers) were sent to the ordinary regiments and 18.382 (including 16.163 officers) were sent to Storm (penal) batallions; 2) 30749 (including 29 officers) were directed to the Public Industry; 3) 5924 were directed to the camps security and convoy regiments; 4) 11.576 were arrested by SMERSH (Death to Spies) including 2083 enemy spies (1284 officers of them); 5) 5.347 were sent to hospitals or died in the process of examination; 6) 51.601 were still being examined. By the October of 1944 all the officers left in camps formed 4 Storm batallions (920 people each).

So we can see that according to the Author who based his research on NKVD docs more then 90% of examined military servicemen were set free and only about 4% were charged.

After the war was over (V.N.Zemskov. Repatriatzia sovetskikh grazhdan i ikh dalneyshaya sudba. Statisticheskie issledovania. 1995, #5) other 4.199.488 Soviet people were examined in the NKVD filtration camps (they all can also be added to the statistics of Stalin's victims). 2.660.013 civilians and 1.539.475 former POW were still in the camps as of March 1, 1946. Of them 46.740 (1,76%) civilians and 226.127 (14,69%) military servicemen were handed over to NKVD investigative authorities. The rest were either liberated or conscripted the Red Army or directed to the reconstruction of the industry.

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#49

Post by AAA » 26 Aug 2004, 18:25

The evidence presented by Getty, Ritterspoon and Zemskov is reviewed by Steven Rosenfielde in EUROPE-ASIA STUDIES Vol 48 No 6 1996 p. 959-987
" Stalinism in Post Communist Perspective : New evidence on Killings, Focred Labour and Economic Growth in the 1930s"
The new NKVD documents are provocative and important because they provide nearly complete serial coverage of the judicial process and appear to decisively confirm past estimates in the lower tails of the distributions. The sentencing figures are 15% of Antonov-Ovseenko's; executions and custodial deaths, and the Gulag camp and colony populations are respectively 37% and 28% of Conquest's.(7) These disparities hold through the 1930's, implying that custodial populations under Stalin were about the same per capita as they are today,(8) and that the primary aberration was the high execution rates in 1937-38.(9) This picture is bleaker than some had previously described, but conveys the impression which Nove approved, that abuses did not get far out of bounds in the context of the times, except momentarily during the Ezhovshchina.(10)
The case made by advocates for the NKVD data is simple. The documents in question appear to have been written and compiled during Stalin's reign, they pertain explicitly to Gulag and were found in appropriate files amid other period materials. They correspond with some official statements made by the KGB, and are internally consistent. Other evidence by comparison is testimonial, or merely heresay and as such has only limited credibility. The counterargument over the authenticity of the NKVD documents has been elaborated by Laqueur. He and others point out that the KGB and military archives remain completely closed, together with most of the NKVD records, except those suspiciously available in the Central State Archive of the October Revolution of the USSR (TsGAOR), now part of the State Archive of the Russian Federation (GARF), and he infers that they are disinformative, being either fabrications or incomplete.(11) This allegation is supported by statements of various senior officials that the scale of the mass killings of the NKVD was many times greater than the documents purport, and by suggestions as to where the missing millions may be concealed.(12) An inconclusive debate has followed, in which both sides have given some ground without making any fundamental concessions.
Although no summary judgment on this important matter is yet possible, it can be conclusively shown, contrary to the claims of Getty, Ritterspoon & Zemskov and of Wheatcroft, that the documents are seriously internally inconsistent.(13) This is accomplished by comparing the number of deaths reported by the NKVD in Gulag camps in 1930-39 with the number computed using the NKVD Gulag camp mortality and population statistics. The result shown in table 2 demonstrates that reported Gulag camp death rates are twice the figure computed independently with the NKVD Gulag camp death rates. Likewise, using similar techniques, it is demonstrated in table 3 that the reported NKVD prison population was approximately quintuple the level derived from the NKVD data on cumulative sentencing and terms served. If the sentencing statistics 1929-45 are adjusted proportionally, for the sake of example, aggregate sentences rise to 14.6 million, in line with Antonov-Ovseenko's arrest statistics.(14) These inconsistencies of course do not discredit the entire corpus of NKVD evidence, but they clearly impugn their integrity on vital matters concerning homicides and Gulag camp populations.
My emphasis . The original article is online at http://sovietinfo.tripod.com/RSF-New_Evidence.pdf complete with the attendant tables.

As we can see for ourselves, Zemskov's stats, even if we make the dubious assumption that they are not based on bogus documents, are only a small part of the whole picture, as was pointed out a few posts ago.
michael mills wrote:Anne Applebaum's approach is quite correct.

The statistics extracted from NKVD reports are to be regarded as proved minimum figures. The real number of victims of the GULag is certainly higher than those documented minimum figures; but as Applebaum points out, we do not have "completely satisfactory death statistics", so as yet we have no way of knowing by how much the true number of victims exceeds the documented minima.

The highest guesstimates made in the past must certainly be rejected; but the crimes of Bolshevism should not be minimised by a stubborn insistence on the minimum figures found in the Soviet-era archives.

Such minimisation would be equivalent to insisting that the number of victims of Auschwitz was only the 200-300,000 deaths documented in German reports.
Absolutely right. To which was replied :
Karman wrote:Probably Auschwitz clerks were deeper versed in social sciences and realized from the very beginning that their business was doomed but their GULAG colleagues were illiterate and believed that Socialism was for ages.
Faaaascinating.

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#50

Post by Karman » 26 Aug 2004, 18:52

I think that Steven Rosenfield challenges the art of war as Sun-Tzu put it:

"Foreknowledge cannot be elicited from ghosts and spirits;
it cannot be inferred from comparison of previous events, or from the calculations of the heavens, but must be obtained from people who have knowledge of the enemy's situation"

He prefers to elict the foreknowledge from ghosts and spirits in order it matches his estimations then to learn it from spies.

Save Zemskov (he is Russian and thus is not reliable) but Ritterspoon and Getty worked in the Russian archives and thus know better either they are reliable or not. You simplify the researchers work. Do not forget that they started to work early in 90 under Gorby and Yeltzin.

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#51

Post by Karman » 26 Aug 2004, 19:36

AAA wrote:As we can see for ourselves, Zemskov's stats, even if we make the dubious assumption that they are not based on bogus documents, are only a small part of the whole picture, as was pointed out a few posts ago.
Your belief that the comprehension of more documents from the closed archives will change the statistics drastically is ridiculous. it will correct them but will not challenge the trends. Otherwise no serious researcher ever publishes his interim conclusions. And by the way do you know what is the first step when you work with a document? You should check it authenticity. So I am not surprised that prejudged people call their opponents "Stalin's advocates". Chill out, Man. That is not a war but a chairborne enquiry.

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#52

Post by michael mills » 27 Aug 2004, 00:32

The problem with writing history soelely on the basis of documents is that the documents may not reflect the whole picture, as is shown by a comparison with the documentary evidence of German Government malfeasance.

For example, in April 1943, Himmler sent a memorandum to all concentration camps ordering that the death rate of the prisoners should be brought down to the lowest possible level, so as to maintain a supply of labour for the war industries associated with the camps.

As another example, the disciplinary regulations for the concentration camps issued by Theodor Eicke, the first commander of the concentration-camp guards (Todeskopf-Verbände), while providing for very harsh punishments, forbade the guards to beat or kill the prisoners arbitrarily, without specific authorisation.

If we had only the documents such as those above, we might assume that the concentration-camp administration struggled hard to keep the prisoners alive, and that the guards touched the prisoners unless the latter had been found guilty of some offence by due process of law.

But we also have evidence from former prisoners and camp staff that show that the death rate in the camps was very high and got worse as the war progressed, and that the guards beat and killed prisoners arbitrarily, sometimes just for fun.

Given the nature of the Soviet system, we are entitled to assume that similar things happened in the Soviet concentration-camp system, and that conditions were worse than suggested by official reports meant for the information of the central authorities.

By the same token, we should not accept unquestioningly the most extreme stories about either the Soviet or the German repressions. The truth lies between the picture painted by the official documents and the wildest exaggerations of eyewitnesses and anecdotal evidence.

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#53

Post by Karman » 27 Aug 2004, 12:02

michael mills wrote:
Given the nature of the Soviet system, we are entitled to assume that similar things happened in the Soviet concentration-camp system, and that conditions were worse than suggested by official reports meant for the information of the central authorities.

By the same token, we should not accept unquestioningly the most extreme stories about either the Soviet or the German repressions. The truth lies between the picture painted by the official documents and the wildest exaggerations of eyewitnesses and anecdotal evidence.
it is true as a whole but does not correspond with the topik. We do not discuss the presence of figures in a structured fashion i.e. who was massacred, who was executed or who died of the old age. All of them were the victims of the regime. We are speaking on the total number of GULAG inmates disregarding the causes of their death or survival.

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#54

Post by Topspeed » 13 Oct 2004, 11:08

Kunikov wrote: Which is why I asked.
I know from literature that 4 years in soviet prison was same as 90 % killed.
What literature?
I read recently a book called Dear Ingermanland ( Rakas Inkeri a finn in USSR ) an incredible survival story of a Soviet/Ingrian who was able to make herself back to Ingria from Siberia. She and her sister were the only survivers from a large family who were deported as enemies of the state.

She had "lost" her papers of her real identity and was able to get the green formula that justifies ex-leningradians to return to Leningrad after the war. Married an estonian and was able to educate herself.

In an other book consisting of stories from 17 survivers it is evident that in one small ingrian village of 129 deported only 3 was ever able to pay a visit to the small town by the testimony of the older and non ingrians in the town ( some oldies and good commies were not deported ).

All in all from several hundred thousands ingrians, karelians, finns there are only 30 known survival stories. Fact is that even after deportation for 25 years those who were deported were never able to return to their own initial homes. I think of the surviers closest to old habitat was 400 km ( excluding the ingrian female scholar ). So possibly a few more survived, but lost her/his national identity more or less ( a hallmark of a genoside ).

Now 50 years later 30 000 decendants of Ingrians from all over USSR has been able to return to Finland. Hardly any of these were "pure" ingrians but nevertheless had some ingrian/finnish background.

This book is called Surviving the soviet meat grinder. Can be found through google !

I stick to the fact that 90% perished or more and some of them as soldiers drafted from the camps. Typically 95 % perished of those sent to camps in Siberia as pows ( half died on the transit and rest through diseases ). Latter figure is from a surviver story of a pow I saw and was a TV-documentary.

Men imprisoned and after having been more or less a year in a pow camp had lost all fat in the body and weighed at around 40 kilos....this is not a shape to survive hard labour, diseases and cold. Pilot officer Pekuri weighed 48 kilos when returning at the years end in 1944 from Spalernaja and he had been on a camp for those who were returned and was on purpose made to eat better food to look healthier after release ( from Pekuris memoirs Spalnernajan vanki = Pow of Spalernaja ).

None of those ingrians were counterrevolutionaries but so called political prisoners. They never went through a trial but were masstransported to various labor camps just for being kulaks ( landowners ) and ethnic finns.

Furhermore I read memoirs of general Talvela and he said that captured RKKA soldiers/prisoners told that 5% ( 30 men in one case ) were shot dead when expressing that they'd better give up voluntarily by the NKVD commissars.
This kinda random executions never appear on any statistics.

cheers,

Juke T

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#55

Post by nny » 23 Aug 2005, 09:18

To expound upon these points, I point to Applebaums "Gulag: A History" : pg 583 (Chapter : "How Many?" )
The culture of camp inspection and reprimand meant, among other things, that individual camp commanders had a vested interest in lying about how many of their prisoners died: both archives and memoirs indicate that it was common practice in many camps to release prisoners who were on the point of dying, thereby lowering camp death statistics. Although exiles moved around less frequently, and were not released when half-dead, the nature of the exile system- prisoners lived in distant villages, far from regional authorities-meant that statistics on exile death rates can never be considered completely reliable either.
More important, however, the question itself has to be asked a bit more carefully. "How many died?" is in fact an imprecise question, in the case of the Soviet Union, and those who ask such a question should first consider what it is that they really want to know. Do they want to know, for example, simply how many died in the camps of the Gulag and in the exile villages in the Stalinist era, from 1929 to 1953? If so, a number based on archival sources is available, although even the historian who compiled it points out that it is incomplete, and does not cover all categories of prisoner in every year. Again, I reluctantly cite it: 2,749,163.
Even if it were complete, however, this figure still would not reflect all of the victims of the Stalinist judicial system. As I say in the introduction, the Soviet secret police did not, for the most part, use their camps in order to kill people. When they wanted to kill people, they carried out mass executions in forests: surely these are victims of Soviet justice too, and there were many of them. Using archives, one set of researchers cites a figure of 786,098 political executions from 1934-1953. Most historians consider this more or less plausible, but the haste and chaos which accompanied mass executions may well mean that we will never know. Yet even this number- which, in my view, is actually too precise to be reliable- still does not include those who died on the trains to the camps; those who died during interrogation; those whose executions were not technically "political" but were nevertheless carried out on spurious grounds; the more than 20,000 Polish officers who died in the Katyn massacres; and most of all, those who died within a few days of release. If that is the number we really want, then it will be higher - probably far higher - although estimates will again vary greatly.
But even these numbers, I've found, do not always provide the answer to what people really want to know. Much of the time, when I am asked "How many died?" what the questioner really wants to know is how many people died, unnecessarily, as a result of the Bolshevik Revolution. That is, how many died in the Red Terror and the Civil War, the famines which followed in the wake of the brutal policy of collectivization, the mass deportations, the mass executions, the camps of the 1920s, the camps of the 1960s through the 1980s - as well as in the camps and mass murders of Stalin's reign. In that case, the numbers are not only far larger, but they really are a matter of pure conjecture. The French authors of The Black Book of Communism quote a figure of twenty million deaths. Others cite numbers closer to ten or twelve million.
A single round number of dead victims would be extremely satisfying, particularly since it would allow us to compare Stalin directly to Hitler or with Mao. Yet even if we could find one, I'm not sure it would really tell the whole story of suffering either. No official figures, for example, can possibly reflect the mortality of the wives and children and aging parents left behind, since their deaths were not recorded separately. During the war, old people starved to death without ration cards: had their convict son not been digging coal in Vorkuta, they might have lived. Small children succumbed easily to epidemics of typhus and measles in cold, ill-equipped orphanages: had their mothers not been sewing uniforms in Kengir, they might have lived too...In the end, statistics can never fully describe what happened. Neither can the archival documents upon which so much of this book has been based. All of those who have written most eloquently on the subject of the Gulag have know this to be true....
I will go back further in the book, as some people seem to be looking at these numbers as the "end figure" of Bolshevik murders :

Pg 583 (quoting a list of deaths in the gulag)
"The sudden spike in 1933, for example, surely represents the impact of the famine which killed six to seven million "free" Soviet citizens as well."
These were not quoted in the Gulag statistics. Pg 581:
"The special exiles are somewhat harder to count, if only because there were so many different exile groups being sent to so many different places at so many different times for so many different reasons. In the 1920s, many of the Bolshevik' early opponents - Mensheviks, Social Revolutionaries, and the like - were exiled by administrative decree, which meant they were not technically part of the Gulag, but were certainly being punished. In the early 1930s, 2.1 million kulaks were exiled, although an unknown number certainly in the hundreds of thousands, were sent not to Kazakhstan or Siberia, but to other parts of their native province or to bad land at the edges of their collective farms..."
The number of people quoted as being killed in the Gulags, is probably one of the only precise figures we may ever see (No one ever went to war to save the Gulag victims). But using this figure as an ultimate figure, IE that which quantifies and qualifies suffering under the Communist regime is, to me, as abhorrant as a person quoting Nazi figures on the number of people whom were gassed or shot (one could even go so far as the number recorded as gassed / shot), which does not in any way represent the number of victims or sufferers of Nazi policy / injustice. In researching this subject, both online and off, one has to keep in mind, that while David Irving and Nazi appologists are out there (en-force it seems) there are a large number of people who would like to down play not only Stalins crimes, but the suffering of Soviet and other civilians under his rule. Thankfully there is also a large number of people who are concerned with the suffering of anyone, no matter who the persecuter or victim that are willing to offer help.
[/quote]

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#56

Post by David Thompson » 28 Dec 2006, 05:44

Last edited by David Thompson on 28 Dec 2006, 05:47, edited 1 time in total.

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#57

Post by michael mills » 28 Dec 2006, 05:44

The Chekas (Extraordinary Commissions) in various locations were autonomous bodies, set up by local Bolshevik activists in response to a call from the Sovnarkom, and acted very much on their own initiative, although they were nominally subordinate to a central collegium (one in the RSFSR and a separate one in the UkSSR).

Accordingly, it is doubtful whether all the killings perpetrated by those autonomous bodies were ever captured in statistics kept by the Bolsehvik Government in Moscow. It is highly likely that records of executions preserved in the Central Archives represent only a proportion (size unknown) of the total number of killings perpetrated by the various Chekas and other Bolshevik forces during the Civil War and the Red Terror.

While the total number of victims of the Red Terror and associated phenomena such as famines caused by grain seizures was certainly not the millions claimed by Mel'gunov (who by the way was a Socialist, not a right-winger or "White Guardist"), it must nevertheless have been in the hundreds of thousands.

It should also be pointed out that the number of victims of executions and massacres by White Forces during the Civil War is not known for certain, and was also greatly exaggerated by the Bolshevik Government and its supporters. Modern historians tend to propose much lower estimates of the number of victims of the anti-Bolshevik forces, in particular of the number of Jewish victims of the pogroms of 1919, seeing it as in the tens of thousands rather than more than 100,000.

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#58

Post by Harri » 29 Dec 2006, 01:36

Jacob Peters wrote:
It should also be pointed out that the number of victims of executions and massacres by White Forces during the Civil War is not known for certain, and was also greatly exaggerated by the Bolshevik Government and its supporters.
In Finland alone the German-backed regime slaughtered in February-April 1918 25,000 workers in concentration camps and through executions according to Anthony Upton.
That one you called "German-packed regime" was the legally elected regime of Finland. AFAIK there was a Civil War in Finland during the period you mentioned. The areas where the biggest POW camps for the Reds were were occupied during April 1918. Here is the list of the biggest camps (and the highest amount of prisoners in the summer 1918):
Suomenlinna/Helsinki (13.300)
Hämeenlinna (11.500)
Hennala/Lahti (10.900)
Viipuri (10.350)
Tammisaari (8.700)
Riihimäki (8.500)
Tampere (7.700)
Lappeenranta (?)

The law on "crimes against the state" which enabled the investigating and sentencing the Red prisoners became valid on 29.5.1918.

The numbers of died persons in camps were as follows:
May 1918 - 600
June - 2.900
July - 4.900
August - 2.150
September - 1.000

There were about 80.000 captured Reds of which about 74.000 - 75.000 were in the camps. They were not POWs but "rebellions". Total number of persons died on hunger and deseases was about 11.000 - 13.000. The worst camp was at Tammisaari where the death rate was the highest, 30.5%. Elsewhere the figures varied between 5 to 20%. At that stage (1918 - 1919) also the so called "Spanish flu" reigned in Finland.

The mentioned executions didn't mostly take place in camps but elsewhere, usually immediately after well known Reds had been met and captured. Source of data is mainly Wikipedia (Finnish edition).

Up to date Finnish "Sotasurmat 1914 - 1922" [war killings] project lists the killed and died people in 1918 as follows:
http://vesta.narc.fi/cgi-bin/db2www/sot ... sivu/stat2

Translations of the table:
Kuolintapa = How Died
Kaatunut = KIA
Teloitettu, ammuttu, murhattu = Executed, shot, murdered
Kuollut vankileirillä = Died in a prison camp
Kuollut vankileiriltä vapauduttuaan = Died after releasing from a prison camp
Kadonnut = Missed
Muut kuolintavat = Other ways of dying
Kaikki yhteensä = All together (total)
Punaiset = Reds
Valkoiset = Whites
Muut = Others
Yhteensä = Total

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Post by David Thompson » 29 Dec 2006, 05:29

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#60

Post by David Thompson » 29 Dec 2006, 19:31


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