Stalins purges: Responsible for 20 million deaths.

[Sergey Romanov]

Some people always have reasons to believe that the figures of deaths in the USSR that are provided by non communists are false or at least have been altered. So what is left then to believe, what Pravda published?

Nice strawman, but nobody here relies on Pravda (which has never published such info anyway). And - it has nothing to do with anyone being a communist or non-communist.

[fuser]

Why believe any number and specially given without any source or some dubious sources like, "black book of communism". In this case I am just relying on common sense, more than 10% of total population? Please. If anything you are more than willing to believe any number given about communism without any retrospect.

[Sergey Romanov]

Why believe any number and specially given without any source or some dubious sources like, "black book of communism". In this case I am just relying on common sense, more than 10% of total population? Please. If anything you are more than willing to believe any number given about communism without any retrospect.

It should be noted though that the toll (however false it might be) is given not for one year but for several decades, so the total population would not be, say, the 1939 demographic slice but rather the total population from, say, 1930 to 1953. Which is quite a lot more than the ~170M.

[Art]

First of all 20 million number is ridiculous, no it's just unbelievable that over 10% of population was killed without disrupting population growth rate in a major way.

Well, the famine of 1933 certainly disrupted the normal population growth and left a significant demographic footprint. Yet from the body of evidences it was rather a screw-up in economical policies than a deliberate and calculated killing.

[Sergey Romanov]

There doesn't seem to be good evidence that Stalin planned mass starvation of either Ukrainians or peasants.

So I would have to agree with Conquest, Davies and Wheatcroft:

Abstract: This Reply, while confirming that Stalin's policies were ruthless and brutal, shows that there are no serious grounds for Ellman's view that Stalin pursued a conscious policy of starvation of the peasants during the famine. It also rejects Ellman's claim that in their recent book [Davies and Wheatcroft (2004)] the authors neglect Soviet policy and leadership perceptions in their account of the famine.

[... excerpt ...]

Our view of Stalin and the famine is close to that of Robert Conquest, who would earlier have been considered the champion of the argument that Stalin had intentionally caused the famine and had acted in a genocidal manner. In 2003, Dr Conquest wrote to us explaining that he does not hold the view that 'Stalin purposely inflicted the 1933 famine. No. What I argue is that with resulting famine imminent, he could have prevented it, but put ''Soviet interest'' other than feeding the starving first-thus consciously abetting it'.

(Source: R.W.Davies, S.G.Wheatcroft, "Stalin and the Soviet Famine of 1932 - 33: A Reply to Ellman", Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 58, No. 4, June 2006, 625 - 633.)

This of course does not absolve Stalin of criminal responsibility, with the possible charges being murder II, criminal negligence or manslaughter.

[fuser]

There is simply no evidence for any centralized planning or execution of any such plan, a case of gross incompetence? Yes but a planned genocide? Absolutely not.

People who seem to be hell bent on painting this famine as some sort of genocide generally remain mum regarding various deadly colonial famines chiefly among this era will be Bengal famine. In the latter case we actually have racist statements from British administration including Churchill regarding how food shouldn't be prioritized for starving "inferior" Indians and yet note that I don't think this was a case of deliberate genocide. Incompetence and bad policy making out of blind racism? Yes but an intention of genocide? Absolutely not.

[michael mills]

The famine of 1932-33 in eastern and southern Ukraine and the northern Caucasus region was not simply a matter of standing aside and allowing the starving peasants to perish by not providing food aid.

There was also the planned and deliberate action of seizing all the small amount of grain that the peasants had managed to harvest in a time of general harvest failure, often including their seed grain, for the purpose of providing food to the urban population, which was the main support of the Communist Government, and also for export. That deliberate action condemned large numbers of the rural population to death.

There can be little doubt that the famine was instrumentalised by Stalin to break the resistance of the peasantry to collectivisation, even though he may not have specifically planned it. However, it is not true that the famine was targeted specifically at ethnic Ukrainians, since the worst affected areas were the grain-growing regions of eastern and southern Ukraine where the rural population was not uniformly Ukrainian but included large numbers of Russians, Germans and other nationalities. To the extent that the famine in Ukraine was instrumentalised for a political purpose, it was not aimed at an ethnic group such as the Ukrainians, but rather at a socio-economic group, the peasantry.

[AprilPoets]

Stalin's Purges never amounted to such a figure. Not even Conquest placed the figure for the Purges to be that high, considering he placed the death toll for the Holodomor at 7 million and the number of executions during the purge at around 1 million. Most of the deaths by Conquest come from the 12,000,000 deaths estimate for the Gulag of which 3,000,000 are from Kolyma. These however are not deaths via a purge.

In either event, if these figures are accurate, we might presume that the total number of arrests in the Great Purges was well under a million and the total number of executions was near 31,000...Readers might be interested to know that Mr Conquest in his classic The Great Terror estimated, in a series of curious extrapolations from literary sources, some seven to eight million arrests and roughly one million executions.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v09/n02/j-arch-ge ... he-ukraine

However, the revisionist estimates are just as much understated as Conquests were overstated. For the figure of those that died the best estimate that we have are the following:

Holodomor - 3,902,700—100,700 in 1932, 3,597,500 in 1933, and 204,500 in 1934

Great Purge - 900,000 to 1,200,000

Gulag and Labor Colonies - 2,749,163

NKVD Polish operation - 111,901 executed

Total: 7,663,764 to 7,963,764

For the Soviets during the Stalin period, the analogous figures are approximately six million and nine million.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2011/03 ... lled-more/

[AprilPoets]

However, it is not true that the famine was targeted specifically at ethnic Ukrainians, since the worst affected areas were the grain-growing regions of eastern and southern Ukraine where the rural population was not uniformly Ukrainian but included large numbers of Russians, Germans and other nationalities. To the extent that the famine in Ukraine was instrumentalised for a political purpose, it was not aimed at an ethnic group such as the Ukrainians, but rather at a socio-economic group, the peasantry.

Actually, the latest studies by Oleh Wolowyna (2016) have found that the highest affected areas of Ukraine were not the grain growing regions.



Also, the Russian and German population of Ukraine in the eastern portion are actually more recent. Ukrainians were very much in the overwhelming majority until the resettlement program headed by Molotov. However, the implication that the famine was not directed at ethnic Ukrainians is correct. It was targeted again Ukrainian Citizens.

[Art]

. For the figure of those that died the best estimate that we have are the following:

Holodomor - 3,902,700—100,700 in 1932, 3,597,500 in 1933, and 204,500 in 1934

In Ukraine or in the whole USSR? Worth to remind that "famine happened in Ukraine only" is a cold war myth created by Conquest and others. Division of famine into "Ukrainian" and "non-Ukrainian" part is artificial and doesn't have a sound basis.

[Art]

There was also the planned and deliberate action of seizing all the small amount of grain that the peasants had managed to harvest in a time of general harvest failure, often including their seed grain, for the purpose of providing food to the urban population, which was the main support of the Communist Government, and also for export. That deliberate action condemned large numbers of the rural population to death.

First, the harvest of 1933 was pretty good unlike the previous year. That demonstrates that seed grain was available in adequate numbers. In fact there were considerable state efforts to allocate seed grain before the spring sowing (see details in "Years of Hunger").
Second, the statement that all the grain was confiscated from peasants is not true, stats are available of YoH again.
Finally, the main reason of the grain shortages were not confiscations but a meager harvest. In 1931 7.3 million tons of grain were taken by the state in Ukraine, in 1932 - 4.3 million or 42% less. In the Soviet Union as a whole the numbers were 22.8 and 18.5 million respectively (note that Ukraine in 1932 was handled more mildly than other regions). Still what remained of the harvest in 1931 was enough to provide for existence (even a hungry one). What remained in 1932 was not and led to mass mortality. Of course, the bad harvest wasn't ordered by Stalin and didn't result from deliberate policy. That his economical policy led to a mess is true but that's another issue.

[AprilPoets]

. For the figure of those that died the best estimate that we have are the following:

Holodomor - 3,902,700—100,700 in 1932, 3,597,500 in 1933, and 204,500 in 1934

In Ukraine or in the whole USSR?

This figure is for Ukraine alone. It does not include excess deaths which he placed at 988,000. The figure for the whole USSR is 8.8 Million for 1931-1934 according to Oleh Wolowyna's latest study. (Again excluding excess deaths)

Worth to remind that "famine happened in Ukraine only" is a cold war myth created by Conquest and others.

Conquest never claimed that famine only existed in Ukraine, this is only an attack that was created by Mark Tauger. Conquest argued that Ukraine and the North Caucasus had faced a different phenomenon in which "the entire crop was removed". He records in the harvest of sorrows that famine had extended to Kazakhstan. Dana G. Dalrymple, in the 1960's recorded that famine probably existed from Ukraine to the Urals.

Division of famine into "Ukrainian" and "non-Ukrainian" part is artificial and doesn't have a sound basis.

No reason for such a division exists... Maybe back when it was thought that the famine was directed at Ukrainians as an ethnicity, but more information has come to light that suggest that famine was intentionally concentrated against Ukrainian citizens. That's partially why "the migration ban only applied to areas predominantly inhabited by Ukrainians." (Ellman, 2007, p.684)

[AprilPoets]

Of course, the bad harvest wasn't ordered by Stalin and didn't result from deliberate policy. That his economical policy led to a mess is true but that's another issue.

That is not what people who believe the famine was intentional suggest. They don't say he made the harvest fail, they argue that he consciously inflicted it.

[Art]

That's partially why "the migration ban only applied to areas predominantly inhabited by Ukrainians." (Ellman, 2007, p.684)

That's not correct. The population of North-Caucasus was part-Ukrainian/part-Russian. The population of the Lower Volga was predominantly Russian. Both were regions that suffered strongly due to famine.

They don't say he made the harvest fail, they argue that he consciously inflicted it.

When you have poor harvest you don't have to inflict anything, starvation just happens by itself. There is an Occam razor principle which says that you don't have to invent excessive entities to explain certain phenomenon. In this case allegation Stalin's secret plot is an excessive entity - it's not needed to explain why the famine happened.

[AprilPoets]

That's partially why "the migration ban only applied to areas predominantly inhabited by Ukrainians." (Ellman, 2007, p.684)

That's not correct. The population of North-Caucasus was part-Ukrainian/part-Russian.

According to the 1926 census, the North Caucasus population was two-thirds Ukrainian. [Kulchytshy, S. (2005) Golodomor 1932 – 1933 rr. v Ukraini: prychyny i naslidki, Kiev] It's pointless considering that the famine was used to target Ukrainian citizens, not Ukrainians. What does it matter if Russians had a large population in this area? It was not a genocide carried out by Russians against Ukrainians. If at all it was a genocide carried out by a multi-ethnical Soviet looking to destroy Ukraine as a national state. I personally do not think that genocide is a good word to explain what happened though. This position about the famine was also held by Conquest after he shifted his position about the famine during the 1990's.

The population of the Lower Volga was predominantly Russian. Both were regions that suffered strongly due to famine.

This is sort of true, but the high death toll of the Lower Volga (366,000 people) is from primarily two regions. Aka the German Volga Republic (50% Ukrainian) and Saratov Oblast (69% Russian). Saratov does deserve closer attention. However, the Lower Volga does have a high Ukrainian population.

They don't say he made the harvest fail, they argue that he consciously inflicted it.

When you have poor harvest you don't have to inflict anything, starvation just happens by itself. There is an Occam razor principle which says that you don't have to invent excessive entities to explain certain phenomenon. In this case allegation Stalin's secret plot is an excessive entity - it's not needed to explain why the famine happened.

The grain stocks and exports would have been sufficient to save a large portion of those whom died.[Graziosi, Andrea. “Slavic Review.” Slavic Review, vol. 67, no. 3, 2008, pp. 774] While Occam's razor is a correct "principle" famines are actually not that simple, especially considering the idea of a "poor harvest" being the cause of the famine relies too much on the FAD model that Sen disproved in the 1980's. Famines are a very complicated phenomenon.

http://staging.ilo.org/public/libdoc/il ... 8_engl.pdf

Even Davies and Wheatcroft place blame on numeral factors for the cause of the famine.

Collectivisation, coupled with dekulakisation, brought agriculture under state control. But its introduction brought with it enormous difficulties. These were partly inherent in the huge operation of moving 25 million individual peasant economies into a quarter of a million socialised collective farms. The difficulties were made worse by the inability of most communists, from Stalin to the party members sent into the countryside, to understand agriculture and the peasants, and offer sensible means of coping with the transformation of the countryside. In 1930, collectivisation proceeded at a breakneck pace, and impracticable schemes were enforced for the wholesale socialisation of livestock as well as grain. Even with a good harvest, the collective farmers were not guaranteed a minimum return for their work. Although some of the Utopian policies of 1930 were soon abandoned, in both 1931 and 1932 Stalin and the Politburo overestimated the harvest and imposed collection plans based on their misjudgment. Most agricultural difficulties were not attributed to mistakes in policy, or even treated as a necessary cost of industrialisation. Instead, the machinations of kulaks and other enemies of the regime were blamed for the troubles, and the solution was sought in a firmer organisation of agriculture by the state and its agencies.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/03/24/ ... holodomor/

It's a case that is spelled out rather strongly in Ellman that policy played a role in causing the magnitude of the famine In the Ukraine and North Caucasus to differ from Russia. According to Snyder 3.3 million people died in Ukraine while 1.5 million died in the USSR (more specifically Russia).