Japanese Surrender

[Darkfire]

So, we're all familiar with when it happened. But I'm more interested in asking exactly how, and more interestingly, why?

The standard answer of massive bombing, submarines, atomic attack, Hirohito, and Soviet invasion could use a bit of clarification - and logical calibration - from this well-informed crowd. I have several questions in this connection:

1.) In what ratio did the above factors contribute to the collapse? For example, had the Allies pursued a different bombing strategy, possibly not dropping nuclear weapons, would the Russian assault have caused a surrender by itself if it had progressed even further than historically? What was the effect of the sub campaign when US aircraft ruled the skies from Luzon and Okinawa - a situation which in my opinion would likely have arisen without the loss of Japan's merchant fleet?

2.) Would a strict blockade of the Home Islands have produced a surrender acceptably timely to the American public?

3.) Likewise, if the Emperor had advocated a policy of national harikiri, what effect would this have had?

4.) What was the precise interaction of the military's various factions in their final maneuverings, especially regarding the diplomatic avenues they sought to open through Moscow and the Emperor's double intervention? Of course, there has been some ongoing literary discussion of this point, and I feel I've read a good deal of it (at least in English). However, the students of this aspect are often tentative in their conclusions and represent conflicting, though sometimes well-argued, perspectives.

5.) What was the state of morale in the Japanese civilian population as a whole? To my knowledge this last question has received scant attention in English-language sources and could benefit from some illumination on this forum.

I'm eager to hear and learn from what you all have to think.

[Goldfish]

Darkfire wrote:

.) What was the state of morale in the Japanese civilian population as a whole? To my knowledge this last question has received scant attention in English-language sources and could benefit from some illumination on this forum.

It is hard to judge exactly what the Japanese were feeling at the time of the surrender as there were no polls, etc. and any postwar statements would be tainted by the fact that interviewees knew Japan had lost the war. However, from what I have seen, I don't think that many Japanese knes that the war was going as badly as it was. I recently visited the Himeyuri no To monument in Okinawa dedicated to the student nurses that died during the battle. It shows how many of these girls went into battle with school supplies, etc. in their packs, anticipating a quick victory which would allow them to return to school. I think that many Japanese were honestly shocked when Japan surrendered. After all, Japan still had about two million men under arms and controlled large areas of Asia.

[Darkfire]

Thank you Golfish. Being a resident of Japan we all appreciate your perspective.

I'm also grateful for your information about home morale and propaganda during the war's final stages.

Of course the Japanese had no public information-gathering agency as exemplified by current (or contemporary) American Gallup polls, et al. I cannot help but wondering what the general attitutde of the Japanese populace was to the devastating Allied firestorm attacks on their cities. It's clear that rural folk could easily have been convinced that the Empire was winning the war. But for urban dwellers in every setting except Kyoto, it seems that the massive late-war destruction would have driven home the point that the Japanese homeland was no longer inviolate, and that the government could no longer protect them. Do you - or anyone - have significant evidence to elucidate this topic?

This whole complex issue begs a deeper question, namely, what was the specific relationship between the Japanese public and the Japanese government at this point? I feel that this subject, at least in English, has been greatly neglected.

The relative silence to my original posting indicates a couple things:

1.) The subject has not been illuminated to the degree that particpants feel comfotable responding and/or,

2.) My phrasing of the initial post was too broad to elicit any substantive responses.

My impulse lies with the latter explanation, which is my fault. If however I were to split up the vaious factors I mentioned, we all might have a more interesting discussion. Let's therefore for the moment pursue the question of Japanese civilian morale. Since there appears to be a paucity of information, all comments are welcome and I hope that anyone with an opinion will air his views.

Because so little information exists in this area, what do forum visitors think about the role of Japanese civilian morale in the final surrender? I know little about it myself, so I'm inviting everyone to contribute based upon whatever knowledge he possesses, or upon speculations informed by general knowledge of the events of June-August 1945.