Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

Discussions on the economic history of the nations taking part in WW2, from the recovery after the depression until the economy at war.
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LWD
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#61

Post by LWD » 10 Sep 2013, 20:06

ljadw wrote:
LWD wrote: Then there are factors you have failed to account for such as; if one looks at the details more of the Soviet industry was devoted to military expenditures especially in the early parts of the war. From what I recall in 41 or 42 almost half the German economy was still devoted to civilian production. Then there were the German capacity that was devoted to essentially worthless items (I suspect some existed for the Soviets as well but will admit that I'm not aware of sepcific ones).
I expected you to be the last man to fall for the Speer myth:half of the German economy beying devoted to civilian production in 1942 :P
All I see is you scoffing at things. The number seem to tell the story. See for instance:
http://www.millersville.edu/holocon/fil ... conomy.pdf
Germany's Total Available Output and War Output, 1939-1942
(Billions of RM, 1939 prices)
1939 1940 1941 1942
Total output available 126 138 146 156
War Expenditures 30 53 71 91
...
War expenditures as % of output 24 38 49 58
and
http://www.feldgrau.com/econo.html
For example, in FY 1942, Germany produced 30 million tons of steel - but only 8 million tons of that was directed towards military production efforts (airplanes, guns, munitions, supplies, tanks, etc.). The following chart highlights German steel production allocations for the fourth quarter of 1939:

Heer - 3.060.000 tons
Marine - 1.250.000 tons
Luftwaffe - 2.220.000 tons
Military construction - 2.060.000 tons
Total military - 8.590.000 tons

Civilian sector - 7.320.000 tons
Export - 1.730.000 tons
Total civilian - 9.050.000 tons

Total steel - 17.640.000 tons
It is worth noteing that on the charts below the US never got to 50% of it's economy devoted to war production and neither Germany nor the Soviets ever got much over 60%
... How could a country in peace stop a country at war,unless it was stronger economically .
??? There are many possible answers to this the question is which is the right one? Look for instance at the US Civil war. The Confederacy never came close economically to the Union but did well in the first couple of years. And of course in the case of WWII Germany wasn't just fighting the USSR was it? Indeed by 1942 it's economy was woefully weaker than that of it's opponents.

In regards to the original question some more numbers:
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo ... ew1998.pdf
Only on the eastern front did the Allies not possess the advantage.
The Soviet Union had more than twice Germany’s population and many
times its territory, but, with 1938 per capita income at 40 per cent of
the German level, was roughly the same size in GDP terms. Because the
German economy grew under the stimulus of increasing mobilization,
while the Soviet economy collapsed under the weight of German attack,
by 1942 rough parity had been transformed into a substantial German
advantage. Still relatively untroubled by Allied bombing and the threat
of a second front in the west, Germany was able to devote nearly all of
its military resources to the war in Russia. The war in eastern Europe
was therefore much more closely fought than in other theatres where
the Allies always held the upper hand economically speaking.With
recovery in 1943 the Soviet economy was able to reestablish a narrow
advantage, but it remained a finely balanced thing until 1945.

...

Table 1-3.Wartime GDP of the great powers, 1939-45, in internationaldollars and 1990 prices (billions)
1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945
...
USSR to
Germany 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1

...
Table 1-8. The military burden, 1939-44 (military outlays, per cent of
national income)
1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944
At current prices:
Allied powers
USA 1% 2% 11% 31% 42% 42%
UK 15% 44% 53% 52% 55% 53%
USSR .. .. .. .. .. ..
Axis powers
Germany 23% 40% 52% 64% 70% ..
Italy 8% 12% 23% 22% 21% ..
Japan 22% 22% 27% 33% 43% 76%
At constant prices:
Allied powers
USA 1% 2% 11% 32% 43% 45%
UK .. .. .. .. .. ..
USSR .. 17% 28% 61% 61% 53%
Axis powers
Germany 23% 40% 52% 63% 70% ..

KDF33
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#62

Post by KDF33 » 10 Sep 2013, 21:05

ljadw wrote:How could a country in peace stop a country at war,unless it was stronger economically .
This is ridiculous. China stopped Japan's advance; would you argue that 1940s China was stronger economically than Imperial Japan?

Regards,

KDF


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LWD
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#63

Post by LWD » 10 Sep 2013, 21:42

And if you want to go back in time look at the Greeks vs the Persians. The Germans, Irish, and Picts all stopped the Romans at one point or another as well.

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#64

Post by ljadw » 10 Sep 2013, 23:10

The Feldgrau figures : as usual not very reliable : 1939 IV/IV: Feldgrau :17.6 million ,of which 8.6 million for the WM. Tooze :wink: :5.4 million (WM::2.5)


:1942:Feldgrau : 30 million(WM:8 million) Tooze :31 million (WM : 13 million)

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#65

Post by LWD » 11 Sep 2013, 14:52

Inaccurate or just counting other things or counting differently? In any case both sets of numbers make my point. That's one reason I quoted several sources the numbers vary some but all none refute my point.

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#66

Post by ljadw » 11 Sep 2013, 19:43

1) The Millersville source (Samantha Carl) has as source : Burton Klein 8O 8O 8O :none today would use Burton Klein: his figures are obsolete and good for the bus.


2)Feldgrau : also for the bus

a) the 1939 and 1940 figures are excluding/nullifying each other :

1939:17.6 million for 3 months = 70 million for 1939 :P ,with 8.6 million for the WM (=34.5 million for the whole year)

1942: 30 million and only 8 million for the WM (27 %),while in 1939 :49 % for the WM

Thus :these figures are useless

b)Tooze OTOH,gives for the last quarter of 1939 a production of 5.45 million and 2.5 million for the WM(=47 %) and for the whole of 1942 a production of 23.22 million,an allocation of 30.71 million and an allocation for the WM of 13.41 million,which is 58 % of the production,and 47 % of the allocation .

Between 1939 and 1942,the % for the WM of the steel production was going up from 47 (in the last quarter of 1939) to 58 % in 1942.

Thus,your claim that the German economy in 1942 was still on a peace level,is not convincing .

BTW : the wise guy who was responsible for the figures published on Feldgrau,was also talking about only 2.3 million German women working for the war effort,which is the classic exemple of the Speer myth :the stupid nazis who prevented millions of German women to work for the war effort. It is the opposite :the % of women working for the war effort was bigger in Germany than in Britain and in the US,but,lower than in the SU .

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#67

Post by ljadw » 11 Sep 2013, 19:52

LWD wrote:
ljadw wrote:
LWD wrote: The war in eastern Europe
was therefore much more closely fought than in other theatres where
the Allies always held the upper hand economically



....
I never had much faith in Harrison (=Warwick) but this proves that his knowledge of the war in the east is NIHIL .

After ONE month fighting,ONE month,Hitler panicked and collapsed:he was thinking on an intervention from Japan,to secure the German victory,which meand: he saw nomore possibility for a German victory: after ONE month.Thus: the war in eastern Europe being much more closely fought than in other theatres: :P :Adolf would disagree .

RichTO90
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#68

Post by RichTO90 » 11 Sep 2013, 21:38

ljadw wrote:No,Hitler did not state in Directive 32 that the Eastern garrison army should be set at about 60 divisions : he said:

Wie stark sich diese Sicherungskräfte im russischen Raum zu bemessen sind,lässt sich mit sicherheit erst später übersehen .
Aller Voraussicht nach werden aber etwa 60 Divisionen und eine Luftflotte,neben den verbündeten und befreundeten Kräften,für die weitere Aufgaben im Osten genügen



Translation : We only can know later how much men will be needed in the East,but we can assume that 60 divisions and an Airfleet with allied forces will suffice .
I am more and more disappointed the more I read your posts. In fact, that is not the "translation" and LWD was correct. A more literal translation would be:

"The strength of the security forces to remain in Russia may be securely calculated later.

In all likelihood, however, about 60 divisions and an air fleet, in addition to allied and friendly forces, are sufficient for the other tasks in the East."

In other words, a reduction of three-quarters of the air power, and about 60 percent of the ground power. Furthermore, there would be no need to leave large mechanized forces as a garrison.

I won't even begin to get into the rather silly argument that GDP is not a measure of economic strength, inasmuch as, apparently, according to you only "manpower fielded" is a viable measure of economic strength.

KDF33
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#69

Post by KDF33 » 11 Sep 2013, 22:07

Regarding German military steel consumption (including the war effort-related construction program), figures taken from Die Deutsche Industrie im Kriege 1939-45, provided by Art in a previous thread, show:

1940: 11,508 / 23,424 = 49.1%
1941: 12,570 / 28,383 = 44.3%
1942: 14,043 / 30,747 = 45.7%
1943: 16,368 / 31,065 = 52.7%
1944: 15,378 / 28,632 = 53.7%

Albeit the proportion of steel allocated to military requirements somewhat jumps between 1942 and 1943, it's clear that the German industrial war effort consumed significant resources from the very beginning.

Regards,

KDF

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#70

Post by ljadw » 11 Sep 2013, 23:06

This is proving what I am saying : that Germany was mobilizing for war in 1939,and that the theory that in 1942,Germany still had a peace economy,is wrong .

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#71

Post by ljadw » 11 Sep 2013, 23:27

RichTO90 wrote:
ljadw wrote:No,Hitler did not state in Directive 32 that the Eastern garrison army should be set at about 60 divisions : he said:

Wie stark sich diese Sicherungskräfte im russischen Raum zu bemessen sind,lässt sich mit sicherheit erst später übersehen .
Aller Voraussicht nach werden aber etwa 60 Divisionen und eine Luftflotte,neben den verbündeten und befreundeten Kräften,für die weitere Aufgaben im Osten genügen



Translation : We only can know later how much men will be needed in the East,but we can assume that 60 divisions and an Airfleet with allied forces will suffice .
I am more and more disappointed the more I read your posts. In fact, that is not the "translation" and LWD was correct. A more literal translation would be:

"The strength of the security forces to remain in Russia may be securely calculated later.

In all likelihood, however, about 60 divisions and an air fleet, in addition to allied and friendly forces, are sufficient for the other tasks in the East."

In other words, a reduction of three-quarters of the air power, and about 60 percent of the ground power. Furthermore, there would be no need to leave large mechanized forces as a garrison.

I won't even begin to get into the rather silly argument that GDP is not a measure of economic strength, inasmuch as, apparently, according to you only "manpower fielded" is a viable measure of economic strength.
there is no indication in Directive 32 that there would be no need for mechanized forces as a garrison .

About the GDP : sigh :it is useless to use the GDP in this case,for the following obvious reasons :

a) one can not compare the German GDP with the GDP of the SU (a marxist country):even during the Cold War,this was impossible : all predictions of the CIA appeared to be wrong . A capitalist economy and a communist economy ate totally different,besides the Soviet figures are not reliable,neither were the German figues,who were intentionally exagerated by the Speer gang .
b)There is also the FACT that a big part of the German GDP was produced by non German sources,and can not be used to calculate the German GDP,thus should be substracted .
It is even questionable to canculate the rato between the US and the British GDP,because any calculation how much $ was a £,is arbitrary .

c) what the Germans did not use against the SU,can not be used to claim that the German GDP was bigger than the Soviet GDP.Otherwise,you must include the British resources committed in the war against Japan to prove that the British GDP was bigger than the German GDP.

The only way to calculate which of both was stronger in the war between both,is to look what both were committing,andnas after a few weeks,the SU committed more,it was the SU.
QED.

All the rest are desperate attempts from people who believe that the outcome of WWII proved the wrong and dangerous claim that liberal capitalism always will defeat tyranny,because it is stronger.

US(=liberal capitalism) was stronger than Germany (dictatorial capitalism) because it was a liberal capitalism.

And,Germany (dictatorial capitalism) must be stronger than the SU (dictatorial communism),because capitamism is always stronger than communism,or another economic system .

The least that one can say is that this is a dangerous wishfulling assumption .

KDF33
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#72

Post by KDF33 » 11 Sep 2013, 23:31

ljadw wrote:This is proving what I am saying : that Germany was mobilizing for war in 1939,and that the theory that in 1942,Germany still had a peace economy,is wrong .
That was the point. Of all your statements on this thread, this is actually one of the few on which I agree.

Regards,

KDF

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#73

Post by ljadw » 11 Sep 2013, 23:34

KDF33 wrote:Regarding German military steel consumption (including the war effort-related construction program), figures taken from Die Deutsche Industrie im Kriege 1939-45, provided by Art in a previous thread, show:

1940: 11,508 / 23,424 = 49.1%
1941: 12,570 / 28,383 = 44.3%
1942: 14,043 / 30,747 = 45.7%
1943: 16,368 / 31,065 = 52.7%
1944: 15,378 / 28,632 = 53.7%

Albeit the proportion of steel allocated to military requirements somewhat jumps between 1942 and 1943, it's clear that the German industrial war effort consumed significant resources from the very beginning.

Regards,

KDF
Die Deutsche Industrie im Kriege (= Wagenführ,the expert in editing and adapting of Speer) should not be used as source: the German military expenditures were 55 % of the GDP in 1942 .
Besides,both figures are proving that the figures given by LWD were wrong : 8 billion ton steel for the WM on a total of 30 billion in 1942 (27 %) is WRONG .

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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#74

Post by KDF33 » 11 Sep 2013, 23:40

ljadw wrote:All the rest are desperate attempts from people who believe that the outcome of WWII proved the wrong and dangerous claim that liberal capitalism always will defeat tyranny,because it is stronger.

US(=liberal capitalism) was stronger than Germany (dictatorial capitalism) because it was a liberal capitalism.

And,Germany (dictatorial capitalism) must be stronger than the SU (dictatorial communism),because capitamism is always stronger than communism,or another economic system .

The least that one can say is that this is a dangerous wishfulling assumption .
Huh? Who even made the beginning of this argument on this thread? Admittedly, I do believe that liberal capitalism is a much better system than Germany's hybrid command economy and Soviet communism to provide an acceptable standard of living and consumption goods to the population writ large. In terms of resource mobilization to wage a war, however, I'd argue that the opposite is true or that, at best, the different systems are equally succesful.

So, to clarify, the reason why Germany outproduced the USSR is not because the former's economic system was "better" (whatever that means), but because the USSR was 1) a developing country that had started serious industrialization ten years previously, and 2) had lost enormous manpower and resources in the initial German invasion.

You really need to quit using strawmen.

Regards,

KDF
Last edited by KDF33 on 11 Sep 2013, 23:43, edited 1 time in total.

KDF33
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Re: Was the USSR economically stronger than Germany?

#75

Post by KDF33 » 11 Sep 2013, 23:41

ljadw wrote:Die Deutsche Industrie im Kriege (= Wagenführ,the expert in editing and adapting of Speer) should not be used as source: the German military expenditures were 55 % of the GDP in 1942 .
Besides,both figures are proving that the figures given by LWD were wrong : 8 billion ton steel for the WM on a total of 30 billion in 1942 (27 %) is WRONG .
Do you even read other people's posts? The above figures are about steel consumption, not about military expenditures as a proportion of GDP!

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