German economic collapse in 1944-45

Discussions on the economic history of the nations taking part in WW2, from the recovery after the depression until the economy at war.
Michael Kenny
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Michael Kenny » 04 Apr 2017 23:29

Stiltzkin wrote: I do not always agree with Guaporense, he could be a bit more diplomatic about his statements. I do think he slightly diminishes the contributions of some nations but his statements should not be dismissed so hastily, they are based on research.
'Research' on Wiki and obscure nutty web-sites no less. It is clear that the poster has absolutely no reference works about the weaponry of WW2. All his 'information' appears to be culled to be from 'Luftwaffe 1946' sites. He simply has not got a clue and has been exposed many times for using made-up and downright falsified information.

Take the bombing claims. Jentz Panzer Tracts 23 'Panzer Production' page 26 states that in Oct-Dec 1943 bombing of the Henschell factory resulted in the 'loss of production' of 79 Tigers. As total T1 production was c.1350 that gives a 5% reduction in Tiger I production numbers. Also Oct-Dec 1943 Alket report a production loss of 177 Stug due to bombing. That is a window on 3 months in 1943. You may wish to delude yourself that this was the only production loss.
The most high-profile bombing victim (tank wise) was the Maus. See Panzer Tracts 6-3, Maus. page 24/25. A bombing raid 5-6 March 1943 destroyed all the drawings and wooden mock-up caused at least a 2 month delay in production. In early August (3rd?) 1943 a raid on Krupp in Essen caught around 30 hulls/plates in the factory and caused an 8 month production delay that effectively killed the Maus. Its cancellation was a direct result of bombing.

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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Yoozername » 04 Apr 2017 23:57

IN RESPONSE TO OIL PRODUCTION SHORTAGES, THE GERMAN HIGH COMMAND CUT FUEL
ALLOCATIONS AS EARLY AS MAY 44. AVIATION FUEL WAS THE MOST CRITICAL PETROLEUM PRODUCT, AS THE
OIL CAMPAIGN KNOCKED OUT 90% OF HIGH-OCTANE GASOLINE PRODUCTION BY MID-JUNE AND 98% BY
THE END OF JULY.
BECAUSE OF THAT, GERMAN PILOT TRAINING WAS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AND THE
OUTPUT OF THE FIGHTER FACTORIES WAS OFTEN GROUNDED. MOREOVER, GERMAN LAND FORCES WERE
SEVERELY HAMPERED BY THE GASOLINE SHORTAGES: THE REICH’S DECEMBER 1944 ARDENNES
OFFENSIVE STALLED DUE TO LACK OF FUEL AND THE FEBRUARY 1945 SILESIAN DEFENSE FAILED DUE TO
LACK OF GASOLINE TO MANEUVER.

GENERAL ADOLPH GALLAND, THE CHIEF OF LUFTWAFFE FIGHTER
FORCES, CONCLUDED AFTER THE WAR THAT THE “RAIDS OF THE ALLIED AIR FLEETS ON THE GERMAN
PETROL SUPPLY INSTALLATIONS WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT OF THE COMBINED FACTORS WHICH BROUGHT
ABOUT THE COLLAPSE OF GERMANY

ALBERT SPEER TO ADOLPH HITLER, TRANSLATION OF LETTER OUTLINING JUNE 1944 ARMAMENT AND
WAR PRODUCTION TOTALS, 30 JUNE 1944, FILE 110.C.(17), SPEER LETTERS TO HITLER, EUROPEAN
SURVEY GENERAL RECORDS, RECORDS OF THE U.S. STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY, RG 243,
NATIONAL ARCHIVES AT COLLEGE PARK, COLLEGE PARK, MD, 1; DOUGHTY, ET AL, 779-780.
47
BROUGHT ABOUT THE COLLAPSE OF GERMANY.”160 ALBERT SPEER, THE GERMAN MINISTER OF
ARMAMENTS AND WAR PRODUCTION AND FIELD MARSHAL ERHARD MILCH, THE LUFTWAFFE INSPECTOR
GENERAL, AGREED THAT OIL WAS THE KEY FACTOR CAUSING A DECISION IN THE WAR AND THE
AMERICANS WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE EFFECTIVE IF THE OIL CAMPAIGN WERE CONDUCTED EARLIER.

Yoozername
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Yoozername » 04 Apr 2017 23:58

You may wish to delude yourself that this was the only production loss.
Also the StuG plant late 43. Also the King Tiger in 44.

histan
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by histan » 05 Apr 2017 00:45

Sorry have to join in again with a long post.

It would be fine if the OP didn't suggest that he has a better strategy for achieving the desired political ends of the Western Allies than that actually carried out. One of the big questions in the Second World War is - where did the strategists and planners come from in the USA to allow them conduct and win a global war? So much good high level thinking. I don't think that he actually really understands strategic thinking and operational planning nor, from the point of view of the UK at least, the pressures involved in conducting a war with a fully functioning democracy. If you do then the conduct of a bombing campaign against the sources of German military power becomes inevitable.

The politicians decide the "ends" that they desire to achieve, strategy is how the military develop the "ways" and "means" that they will use to achieve those ends. The "ways" are the ordered sequences of military activities that will be carried out and the "means" are the resources that will be deployed in each of the activities. The key to successful strategy is matching the "ways" and the "means" and these have to be carefully balanced. For example, the land forces and the air forces must be correctly balanced in order to achieve success. In addition, the "risks" associated with any combination of "ways" and "means" must be assessed. Finally, the planners must seek to "establish the art of the possible".
The Normandy Invasion was a carefully thought out series of Lines of Operation aimed at achieving specific Decisive Conditions that would maximise the likelihood of success, while attempting to minimise the risk of failure. Some of the Decisive Conditions were:
Sea Control in the Channel
Air Superiority over the Channel and Invasion Beaches as a minimum, Air Supremacy would be desirable
The ability to win the race to reinforce the invasion front - the Build Up.
I find it hard to see how changing the balance between land and air forces, that is increasing the number of army divisions, would make the achievement of any of these Decisive Conditions more certain or more easy. A reduction in air forces would have made them harder to achieve, if they were capable of being achieved at all.

The German war against the Soviet Union was lost before it had even started.
Hitler had defined the political end he wished to achieve - no Russian state west of the Urals. The complete failure of the German high command to develop a strategy to achieve this - Barbarossa didn't really address the "ways" by which this end state could be achieved and the "means" allocated to it were not matched even to the wishful thinking "ways" contained in the operational level planning.

It is arguable that after the Invasion had been successfully accomplished the Operational Art of the Western Allies was inferior to the Operational Art of the Russians during the same time period. Both were much superior to that of the Germans at that time.

Not sure this actually contributes to the original topic!

Regards

John
PS - no apologies for the jargon - it is how strategy and operational level planning is discussed these days.

Michael Kenny
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Michael Kenny » 05 Apr 2017 01:08

This is a specific reply to the specific claim that bombing hardly impacted on production. It is a translation of German documents so is not an invention of the Western Allies. If you are not a detail person it is all summed up in the red text at the bottom and it comprehensively demolishes the argument/inventions/lies of the ill-informed poster

From Jentz VK45.02 to Tiger II pages 59-60

Henschel finally solved most of the start-up problems and were meeting and exceeding their monthly production goals when they were hit by a series of five bombing raids on 22, 27, and 28 September and 2 and 7 October 1944. A total of 2906 tons of high explosive and 1792 tons of incendiary bombs were dropped, the Henschel plant being the intended target. These raids destroyed 95 percent of the total floor area of the Henschel plant. Another bombing raid on the plant on 15 December further deIayed recovery. In addition, heavy area bombing raids on Kassel and vicinity on 22/23 October, 30 December and 1 January resulted in further disruptions to Tiger II production.
In his report dated 31 December 1944 on the production of tanks beginning in 1940 up to 31 December 1944, Dr. Blaicher, the Chairman of the Hauptauschuss Panzerkampfwagen (Main Committee Armored Fighting Vehicles) under the Speer's Ministry for Armaments and War Production, Ieft behind a realistic picture of the problems then facing the industry:

Discussions of the important difficulties in the year 1944
While during 1943 the influence of hostile air attacks was not yet very noticeable in the tank industry and the more important suppliers and contractors, in 1944 there was no single tank-producing - plant which did not suffer directly and above all indirectly to a considerable extent. Insufficient supply of supplied parts, particularly aggravated by the longish transport bans, must be counted as an additional difficulty for all firms during the whole year, but especially in the Iast four months.
Fried. Krupp, Essen: Through the attack of 25 October 1944 the production of Pz.Kpfw.IV armor components in particular was hindered considerably. Production in the Tiger workshops and rolling miIls was also considerably obstructed by continuous air attacks on Essen.
Damage to the AFV plants
Tiger production at Henschel, Kassell : Extreme dfficulties have been caused by the somewhat complicated power supply and the Iabor situation through repeated air attacks on Kassel. Production seriously obstructed by three severe attacks in September 1944 and three further attacks causing a Iong-term stoppage of power.

General disturbing influences
Considerable loss of man-hours through air-raid warnings was added to these difficulties in the various districts. Individual statistics are not available at the moment. MIAG, Braunsweig, for instance, lost about 300,000 man-hours through direct and indirect effects of enemy attacks and through warnings in October 1944. Considerable dispersion was undertaken by all firms to avoid total Iosses through these enemy attacks. A further deterioration of the development of production, and especially the catastrophic aggravation of the transport situation, became a disturbing factor to this policy of dispersing stores and dumps and the supply of components with the production plant as an organic whole.
It should be especially stressed that the internal factory conditions created by the effects of the enemy attacks brought with them an extraordinary strain on the managerial and administrative staff, and that the extremely Iarge reduction of German Iabor, which is decisive in dealing with the catastrophes, has badly retarded reconstruction and the overcoming of the dfficulties during the current year. When repeated and regular production breakdowns occurred, which in some plants Iasted the whole year round, the changeover from a state of improvisation to an organic condition of production could hardly be achieved, in spite of the most strenuous efforts of the management. The extraordinary extent of the stoppages throughout the whole of the armaments industry caused all external assistance in overcoming these dfficulties to diminish more and more, and the firms were Iargely dependent on helping themselves.
Added to these Iocal difficulties was the Iarge number of stoppages of deliveries on the part of suppliers and subcontractors. The production situation was made extremely difficult by the severe interruptions of communications and the disruption of the supply of components which became increasingly worse. This was caused by the transport situation, which is deteriorating on a catastrophic scale.
At this moment one can no Ionger speak of planned production at all. On principle, I would Iike to mention that tank production has to deal with a maximum of difficulties such as no other branch of production can boast, by reason of the target demanded on the one hand, and on the other hand through the addition of all the difficulties of the branches of other main committees connected with it. To mention that a Panther possesses 26,000 parts will be sufficient to prove this statement.
In spite of all these difficulties, the factories have grown with their tasks, and the plant managements, as well as the whole organization, are trying to adapt themselves as best as possible to these difficulties in order to overcome them and to obtain the best possible results for German armaments.
But the pessimism of Dr. Blaicher wasn't shared by Wa Rue (WuG) in their projections dated 30 January 1945 in which they predicted that production could recover up to 125 Tiger II per month through December 1945, as follows:
Panther grillef421r.jpg
The Allies bombing campaign had caused the Ioss in production of at Ieast 657 Tiger II (940 originally planned versus 283 actually produced) during the period from September 1944 through March 1945.
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Stiltzkin
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Stiltzkin » 05 Apr 2017 03:28

1.Thats when the war was already won.
2. Those are just Tiger II tanks, a very small overall asset of the Wehrmachts stock. Furthermore, that is the only thing you can come up with. Books related to tanks. Economy eludes you. I would be also very carful with Jentz, he is overrated, just like Tooze and Glantz are.

Michael Kenny
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Michael Kenny » 05 Apr 2017 03:55

Stiltzkin wrote:1.Thats when the war was already won.
You mean 'after Kursk' when, as the the ill-informed poster tells us the war was won?
Stiltzkin wrote: 2. Those are just Tiger II tanks, a very small overall asset of the Wehrmachts stock.
Now you start altering the facts.

I posted 3 examples. Tiger I. Tiger II and Stug. Your claim 'Those are just Tiger II tanks' is simply not true. I believe your falsification is deliberate.
Note also that in the TII section this:

Through the attack of 25 October 1944 the production of Pz.Kpfw.IV armor components in particular was hindered considerably

Now you are entirely free to believe that the multitude of transport, power, employee and production problems were specific to those AFVs and that Panther production was not troubled in any way.
Stiltzkin wrote: Furthermore, that is the only thing you can come up with. Books related to tanks. Economy eludes you. I would be also very carful with Jentz, he is overrated, just like Tooze and Glantz are.
Its called specialisation. The ill-informed poster decided he would like to opine in my area and I noticed a multitude of lies and distortions in his screed. I used my references (note: not Wiki or crazy conspiracy theory sites) to find specific and detailed accounts that completely refute his fabrications. His 'Economic' babble seems to have attracted the same type of devastating rebuttal from others who specialise in economics so his ignorance is not confined to one area and he talks garbage right across the spectrum.

If however you believe I (or Jentz) am wrong please list your questions so we can all see which parts you think were wrong.

By the way Jentz was just providing a translation of German reports. It is not his opinion so his 'overation' does not enter into it.

Yoozername
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Yoozername » 05 Apr 2017 04:40

I guess the Panzer IV production people didn't get the memo...
I think I have a good solution to the riddle: German industrial production, after increasing almost continuously up to mid 1944, collapsed afterwards, that was by choice. It's essentially the same reason why massive numbers of soldiers surrendered to the WAllies after the Normandy breakout: the war was lost, there was no point in making an effort because it was futile.
Panzer IV production 1944
Ready to issue
Jan 323 Combined manufacturers
Feb 246
Mar 424
Apr 256 Nibelungenwerke as the only plant left
May 253
Jun 284
Jul 205
Aug 303
Sep 236
Oct 203 Bombing
Nov 188
Dec 149

The rebuilt #'s went down to single digits after October also.
Damage to the AFV plants
Tiger production at Henschel, Kassell : Extreme dfficulties have been caused by the somewhat complicated power supply and the Iabor situation through repeated air attacks on Kassel. Production seriously obstructed by three severe attacks in September 1944 and three further attacks causing a Iong-term stoppage of power.
SHOCKING!

David Thompson
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by David Thompson » 05 Apr 2017 05:38

Guaporense -- You wrote (at viewtopic.php?p=2071728#p2071728):
Instead of wasting massive resources on strategic bombing which killed 360,000 civilians and 120,000 bomber crews for no significant strategic benefit .. . .
When I asked you for a source, you referred to a Wikipedia article(at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strateg ... rld_War_II) which spoke of 160,000 airmen killed, not bomber crews.
160,000 airmen (Europe)[3][4]
One airman does not make a bomber crew, which may number as many as eight or more airmen. Consequently your figure for lost bomber crews is substantially exaggerated. Please get into the habit of posting your source at the time you make a claim. That way you can avoid mistakes like this one; The forum rules also require sourcing:
Undocumented claims undercut the research purposes of this section of the forum. Consequently, it is required that proof be posted along with a claim. The main reason is that proof, evidence, facts, etc. improve the quality of discussions and information. A second reason is that inflammatory, groundless posts and threads attack, and do not promote, the scholarly purpose of this section of the forum.
http://forum.axishistory.com/app.php/ru ... bed030fd39

South
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by South » 05 Apr 2017 07:33

Good morning Guaporense,

There was a reason I asked you to define / explain your definitions assigned to "strategic terms" and "WWII".

Much of the transmissions here is really a refutation of meanings assigned to terms and expressions.

The war the US was engaged in also included the USSR and Asia.

I understand your view. It's just that your definitions are different than some others - especially mine. For example, "strategically", at the apex level, is a political matter; not a military one - even with a blend.

The Western Allies DID distract the Wehrmacht but don't neglect who also observed the atomic bombings besides the Japanese.

Conference subject matter and dates serve as decent bench marks / reference points.

The Great War, Parts I and II, involved an industrial base mounted on movable platforms. The most powerful industrial base, with its petrol protoplasm was not Germany.


~ Bob
Virginia, USA

South
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by South » 05 Apr 2017 08:32

Good morning Stiltzkin,

The Western Allies were indeed watching Germany. Select any date after the reparations catastrophe and the US monitoring/parrying can be seen.

May, 1939 is when the Army and Navy Board (Joint Board) started their "Rainbow Plans" in preparation for war.

FDR's 8 Sep 39 proclamation of a "limited" national emergency allowed for increasing troop strength. The increase was nominal because of the domestic US isolationists but it was a start.

Two weeks after war in Europe started, FDR called a special session of Congress to repeal the Neutrality Acts. FDR got this and also the "Cash and Carry" program for the allies.

On 16 May 40. FDR appeared before Congress and received an appropriation to procure 50,000 (Repeat: 50,000) aircraft.

The Western Allies were indeed watching Germany;

-2 Sep 40: "Destroyer Deal"
-11 March 41: "Lend-Lease"

AIEEYAAA ! Re "...the suffering of the Slavic population that stands unprecedented"; They most definitely suffered geometrically more than the Westerners, especially the Americans, but please,....the quote won't work in Beijing, Shanghai, Harbin, Hong Kong,......

The Western nations were fighting the Communists.....not addressing the results.....The US was clearly involved in countering Communist expansion in Asia. General Stillwell, in China, prior to the official US entry into WWII, sent reports in on Communist development. Stillwell got fired.

I'm not discussing eastern Europe and their new Communist governments. I do not know the subject.


~ Bob
Virginia, USA

Michael Kenny
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Michael Kenny » 05 Apr 2017 13:59

Earlier in the thread I quoted Jentz on Stug. production lost to bombing.
Michael Kenny wrote: Oct-Dec 1943 Alket report a production loss of 177 Stug due to bombing.
I consulted the 2 Volume Stug III book by Muller & Zimmermann

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Peter-Zimmerma ... B00RWNZOPE

and discovered the total production loss over 5 months was in the order of some 700 vehicles.

Panther grillef422r.jpg
Note the text below the chart above applies to another factory.
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Yoozername
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Yoozername » 05 Apr 2017 15:55

Much of the transmissions here is really a refutation of meanings assigned to terms and expressions.-South
Well, many transmissions here include facts and data. The expression 'Strategic', in terms of the war waged to bring about the Total Collapse of Germany, is pretty clear to me. In the case of the Soviets having 'Strategic' post war goals that were facilitated through the defeat of Germany, well that would be another topic.

The US was certainly watching world events, and many 'friends' were requesting weapons (planes for cash), and other economic and political help. But it all took a turn after December 7, 1941. The badly timed attack, bad for Germany that is, brought the US onto the stage and out of the 'wings'.

Yoozername
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Yoozername » 05 Apr 2017 16:04

discovered the total production loss over 5 months was in the order of some 700 vehicles.
And the timing could not have been worse. The StuG III was perhaps the most important AFV fielded at that time considering the German post-Kursk position. Tigers were always low numbers and essentially a specialty tank with maintenance issues, the Panther was having its initial manufacturing issues followed by winter problems, and the Panzer IV, for better or worse, was the MBT of the Germans, The defensive success of the Germans using the Stug, and its importance as far as holding the line, was recognized by the Soviets and they avoided combat with it as a SOP.

The Germans had to scramble to cobble together the StuG IV. Like most successful bombings, it is not just the actual destruction of weapons or factories but also the mayhem and disruption that follows. Similar to the 'Oil Bombings', the cleanup and reactionary measures and rebuilding consume vast quantities of materials and man hours.

Richard Anderson
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Re: German economic collapse in 1944-45

Post by Richard Anderson » 05 Apr 2017 16:59

Stiltzkin wrote:The only thing I see is hurt egos, people trying to squeeze out every little percentage to make it look as if the WAllies were the be all and end of all things, you are just more academic about it than the others (this is the equivalent of those Wehrmacht fanboys, "if they had produced more Tigers, they would have won", or those Russian ultranationalists, who want to tell us that Talinn, Riga and Kiev are rightfully theirs).
Wow, you sure did miss the point. Where, exactly, in my statement, did you find my "fanboism" for the "WAllies" coming out? Was it when I pointed out the deliberate distortion of the numbers used by the OP?

Meanwhile, I admit to getting a tad irritated when the OP decides to channel the late Trevor Dupuy and deliberately distorts his work to fit his own inane ideas. I WORKED for Trevor for nearly ten years and for TDI for more than another ten years doing the same work. I had extended daily DISCUSSIONS with him regarding this work. I ATTENDED his funeral at Arlington. I WORKED on the QJM/TNDM. I DID the work researching the new data and checking the original engagements. I UNDERSTAND the intent behind the QJM/TNDM.
The pinnacle of military effectiveness and the sole saviours of mankind. If this was really the case (and I think Guaporense stated this before), then the WAllies would have been more serious (and comptetent and here he draws a connection beteween WW1 and WW2) about an effective strategy to contain Hitlers expansion earlier (interventions in the 39 campaign or perhaps even before). I understand that some people are a bit more "patriotic" about it, but this, "the GI was superior to everyone" (S.E. Ambrose mentality), is ridiculous.
Seriously? Again, where did I say anything, anywhere, that resembles this strawman of yours? How is a focus on accurate numbers jingoistic?
Everyone in this forum should be able to realize that the EF was the decisive front in the vast Nazi-Soviet conflict. It was the suffereing of the slavic population that stands unprecedented.
No, everyone in this forum should be able to realize that the EF was A decisive front in the vast WORLDWIDE conflict. Yes, it was the decisive front in the vast Nazi-Soviet conflict..but there was rather more to the worldwide war then that. Hint: that is why it is called World War II rather than the "Nazi-Soviet War".
The "Free World" was also very hesitant about fighting the Communists. Not only did they sell out the eastern European countries to the Communists, the Americans also woke up pretty late to counteract the aggressive expansion in Asia (with the power vacuum of a destroyed Germany and Japan the USSR could expand unhindered), only when a poor 3rd World country like Korea was being left and overturned.
I always love it when perfect irrelevancies get thrown into an argument, because it is so easy then to ignore them.
I do not always agree with Guaporense, he could be a bit more diplomatic about his statements. I do think he slightly diminishes the contributions of some nations but his statements should not be dismissed so hastily, they are based on research.
"Research"? Seriously? Posting a number pulled from thin air and then doing a Wiki search to find something "he remembers reading sometime" that matches it is not "research". If you believe it is, then your fundamental error on this point is rather self evident.
The effectiveness of strategic bombing is still disputed, if anything it was an effective way of killing civilians, but that is what the Nazis were primarily doing in the their wake of destruction anyway. It was retribution.
Sigh...no, it was tit for tat of course, but it was not "retribution". If it was retribution, then the American daylight bombing effort would not have been so obsessed with bombing accuracy metrics and hitting the specific target.

And of course its effectiveness is still disputed, it was disputed at the time. If you actually read the USSBS and BBS reports you will often find how they describe the difficulty of finding measures of effectiveness. In many ways, the sum of their parts do not in fact equal the whole, bt then the summary reports, particularly in the case of the USSBS European War summary, were political documents advocating for an independent U.S. Air Force rather than a measures of effectiveness report.

All of which again has zero to do with the distortion of facts and figures by the OP.
If anything, his posts have more of a leftist character, not comparable to Goebbels or Trump (and I do not think that mentioning Trump in one sentence with Goebbels is a proper observation).
Totalitarian propaganda is totalitarian propaganda, whether it comes from the extreme left or the extreme right. However, if you believe that Trump's lying is somehow superior to Goebbels' lying or vice versa, then so be it.
Richard C. Anderson Jr.

American Thunder: U.S. Army Tank Design, Development, and Doctrine in World War II
Cracking Hitler's Atlantic Wall
Hitler's Last Gamble
Artillery Hell

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