Cold Viruses

[Globalization41]

Suppose theoretically if one is viral with a cold and they emit a million airborne viruses per cubic foot. If the viral person is wearing a standard medical mask that blocks 90% of the germs, then that person would exhale 100,000 airborne viruses per cubic foot. If that person wore two masks, then another 90% of germs blocked would leave 10,000 germs not blocked and airborne. … If a non-viral person without a mask breaths in a cubic foot of one million germs, theoretically (in this example of 90% blockage) they could reduce that to 100,000 virus germs by wearing one mask. Two masks worn by the non-viral person would leave 10,000 germs inhaled per cubic foot. … If two persons were wearing two masks each and one person is viral, there would be only 10,000 airborne germs (of a million exhaled by the viral person) available for breathing. The non-viral person would inhale 1,000 of those germs if wearing only one mask and only 100 germs per cubic foot if wearing two masks.

4/15/1942, Photo, Mask; Dressed for Russian Winter; British Seaman en Route to Russia Wears New Fur-Lined Visor & Mask

4/15/1942, Big Convoy of Allied Ships Arrives at Murmansk After Fighting Off Incessant Attacks from German Divebombers

Seaman Raymond Johnson Describes Attack by German Divebombers on His Ship While Carrying TNT to Russia, 7/1/1944

4/15/1942, Map, Allied Supply Lines by Sea; Enemy Attempting to Cut Off Life-Lines to Artic Ports & Through Indian Ocean

4/15/1942, Life in Occupied Poland, Guerilla Warfare, Brutal Deportations, Systematic Starvation, 70,000 Persons Shot

4/15/1942, Wartime Baseball Opens; Yanks' Ruffing Checks Washington 7-0; Colorful Ceremonies, V.P. Wallace 1st Pitch

5/12/1942, Washington Homestead Grays Sweep New York Black Yankees in Chilly Griffith Stadium Opener; Gibson 3 Hits

5/12/1942, Roy Campanella Sparks Baltimore Elite Giants in Seesaw Opening Win at Oriole Park Against Philadelphia Stars

5/12/1942, Newark Eagles' Monte Irvin Singles Twice, Doubles, Triples, & Drives 450-Foot HR in Split with N.Y. Cubans

5/12/1942, Delayed War Dept. Report Says Recent U.S. Air Raid on Japan Targeted Military & Industry; Planes Flew Low

Globalization41.

[paulrward]

Hello All :

Mr. Globalization41 wrote :

Suppose theoretically if one is viral with a cold and they emit a million airborne
viruses per cubic foot. If the viral person is wearing a standard medical mask that blocks
90% of the germs, then that person would exhale 100,000 airborne viruses per cubic foot.
If that person wore two masks, then another 90% of germs blocked would leave 10,000
germs not blocked and airborne. …

I am reminded of a story I heard many years ago. At that time, several Airliners had been
destroyed in mid-air by bombs planted or carried aboard, with a terrible loss of life. A
Businessman, who did frequent air travel, became concerned, and asked his Insurance Agent
if he should get a special life insurance policy to cover him in case the airliner he was
on was blown up.

The Insurance Agent consulted his firm's actuarial staff, and informed the Businessman that,
according to the statistics, the odds of his being on an Airliner with a bomb on it were on
the order of 17,000,000 to 1. The Businessman digested that figure for a moment, and
then asked his Insurance Agent what were the odds were of being on an Airliner with TWO
terrorist bombs on board ?

The Insurance Agent again consulted the actuaries, and then informed the Businessman that
the odds of that were nearly 300 trillion to 1.

The Businessman thanked his Agent, and, from then on, whenever he flew on an Airliner,
he always carried his own bomb......


Respectfully :


Paul R. Ward

[Globalization41]

If there are a billion cold viruses in a cubic foot and only a hundred survive to colonize successfully, then a few that survive might in some cases be more genetically suited for survival. The colony started by the 100 surviving (stronger) viruses could theoretically produce another billion per cubic foot. The next 100 survivors would be even more adaptive. After a few million generations a super virus could evolve.

Globalization41.

[Globalization41]

If surgical masks are effective in attenuating successful colonization of the doomsday virus, then wouldn't that fact mathematically indicate the virus cannot survive very successfully on hard or soft surfaces?

Globalization41.

[wm]

A hundred aren't enough. I've read millions are needed.
In a highly polluted by viruses environment, with every breath, you inhale millions of them - and masks will not save you.

[Globalization41]

If a mask blocks zero viruses out of a billion per cubic foot, then it would mean those aerosolized viruses coming in contact with the mask filter are not killed upon contact with a surface (in addition to surviving within the respiratory system). This would mean the mask is useless. … If the mask-filter fibers do block some of the viruses it would seemingly indicate that the doomsday viruses are killed on contact by the mask, which borders the vulnerable respiratory system. Therefore, the chances of successful virus colonization or survival on hard and soft surfaces are less than with viruses floating in the air. If contact with a flimsy mask kills viruses, then the virus could not survive on doorknobs, restaurant tables, or schoolroom desks.

Globalization41.

[wm]

Masks don't kill, they stop the droplets the viruses travel in.
It's assumed now that a good mask protects you for 15 minutes in presence of a sick person.

[Globalization41]

If the viruses are blocked by the mask, they eventually starve. How long do the viruses trapped in the mask have before they become inactive? How long do the drifting viruses survive? How long does it take a virus to float to the ground? How long does the virus live when it contacts a surface other than the fertile grounds of the respiratory system? Does failed colonization with less than the "millions" of viruses required for success result in better defensive antibodies?

Globalization41.

[wm]

They don't starve because they aren't alive; they got disintegrated by various environmental agents, including the Sun, or the wrong chemical composition of their environment.
It doesn't' matter how long they could survive on surfaces. You should always assume they are there waiting for an opportunity to multiply.

[Globalization41]

I know nothing of viruses, but I'm self-learning just a little. … Assuming floating viruses survive (or become dormant) upon contact with hard or soft surfaces for significant periods, then it would mean the surgical mask would be a sanctuary for billions of viruses. Seemingly, the surgical mask would not be very effective. After a few minutes one would be breathing in fresh viruses having only been slowed by heavy traffic and road conditions. … However, if the viruses are permanently deactivated (if not killed or starved) when contacting non respiratory-related surfaces, it would seemingly imply surgical masks are very effective. Therefore, if masks are effective in blocking virial infections, it would theoretically mean the virus does not survive on surfaces like restaurant tables, school desks, or door knobs. One wearing a surgical mask could safely shake hands with someone who's virile. Labor participation could be re-maximized for economic purposes.

Globalization41.

[gebhk]

I

know nothing of viruses, but I'm self-learning just a little. … Assuming floating viruses survive (or become dormant) upon contact with hard or soft surfaces for significant periods, then it would mean the surgical mask would be a sanctuary for billions of viruses. Seemingly, the surgical mask would not be very effective. After a few minutes one would be breathing in fresh viruses having only been slowed by heavy traffic and road conditions. … However, if the viruses are permanently deactivated (if not killed or starved) when contacting non respiratory-related surfaces, it would seemingly imply surgical masks are very effective. Therefore, if masks are effective in blocking virial infections, it would theoretically mean the virus does not survive on surfaces like restaurant tables, school desks, or door knobs. One wearing a surgical mask could safely shake hands with someone who's virile. Labor participation could be re-maximized for economic purposes.

Hi Globalization

I think you may be labouring under the misapprehension that masks act directly on the virus. They don't (unless they are impregnated with an effective anti-viral agent). What face coverings do is interfere with the virus' transportation system - droplets of fluid that we project when we breathe, speak etc. The main benefit is that they significantly reduce the range to which the droplets are projected. In short, as it is understood, their main benefit is that they help protect others from carriers not the other way round. Incidentally, wearing two masks will not reduce your 'emissions' by a factor of two, because most of the 'loss' is droplets bypassing the mask. A second mask on top of the first one will do little to limit the bypass.

In the opposite direction, the effectiveness of masks as personal protection is limited. As you say, if exposed to the droplets of carriers, these settle on the mask and eventually will work their way through, end up on your fingers etc. That is why masks have to be changed regularly. They also do not cover the eyes which are another portal for entry of the virus into your system. Nevertheless, there is some limited evidence that wearing a mask may reduce some of your exposure to Coronavirus because while not reducing the infection rate, mask wearing does seem to reduce the severity of the illness. This makes sense because wearing a mask likely reduces the loading dose of virus that you are infected with and therefore it is easier for your immune system to combat and defeat it.

[Globalization41]

Hi Gebhk. I wonder how many viruses are riding on a moisture droplet? A hundred, a billion? How large is the droplet? How long does it take for the droplet to fall a certain distance? Does the droplet fall one foot per hour? When not colonizing the respiratory system, do the viruses only survive on droplets? How long do the viruses survive while hitching a ride on droplets? … I'm not sure if the mask acts directly on the virus. It would depend on whether the virus survives surface contact. If a cold virus cannot survive on surfaces, then the mask would most likely have the same effect. … I suspect the eye "portal" is less vulnerable than inhalation to most cold viruses. … Regarding viruses being funneled through two masks, the percent making it through one surgical mask would seemingly be squared (v% x v%) for two masks. … ["...wearing a mask likely reduces the loading dose of virus that you are infected with and therefore it is easier for your immune system to combat and defeat it."] That would indicate another mask-multiplier effect. Less catching it in the short term and long term.

Globalization41

[gebhk]

Hi Globalization

Google is you friend!

You will find all the answers to your questions in many papers published on-line. For example: Chu DK, Akl EA, Duda S, et al. ; COVID-19 Systematic Urgent Review Group Effort (SURGE) Study Authors. Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet 2020; 395:1973–87 for a systematic review. Or Renyi Zhang et al: Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19, PNAS June 30, 2020 117 (26) 14857-14863; first published June 11, 2020; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009637117 '

[Globalization41]

Thanks a bunch Gebhk. Excellent article. It's dated June 30, 2020. … Google is my best friend. Their old-newspaper links are the ultimate. Their massive collection is near infinite. (Google works as a nice spell checker too.) Hopefully Google has numerous employees generating revenue (which makes economic formulas work better).

Excerpts from Gebhk's link:

Recent experimental studies have examined the stability of SARS-CoV-2, showing that the virus remains infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days. [This excerpt was the only mention of surface contact. If the virus lives on surfaces longer than floating in the air, then the mask would be a petri dish. If the mask stops the virus, then surfaces possibly starve the viruses almost instantaneously.]

Face covering prevents both airborne transmission by blocking atomization and inhalation of virus-bearing aerosols and contact transmission by blocking viral shedding of droplets. On the other hand, social distancing, quarantine, and isolation, in conjunction with hand sanitizing, minimize contact (direct and indirect) transmission but do not protect against airborne transmission.

Transmission of airborne viruses in open air is subject to dilution, although virus accumulation still occurs due to stagnation under polluted urban conditions. [I'm skeptical of the virus in outside smog or haze (while socially distanced) to efficiently colonize the respiratory system.]

Removal of virus-bearing particles from human atomization via deposition is strongly size dependent, with the settling velocities ranging from 2.8 × 10−5 m⋅s−1 to 1.4 × 10−3 m⋅s−1 for the sizes of 1 and 10 μm, respectively.

The initial outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan coincided with the winter haze season in China, during which high levels of PM2.5 were prevalent in air.

...key questions remain concerning transformation and transmission of virus-bearing aerosols from human atomization in air.

Of particular importance are the considerations that render airborne SARS-CoV-2 the most efficient among all transmission routes. Even with normal nasal breathing, inhalation of virus-bearing aerosols results in deep and continuous deposition into the human respiratory tract, and this transmission route typically requires a low dose. Also, airborne viruses have great mobility and sufficiently long surviving time for dispersion, and residents situated in densely populated environments are highly vulnerable. In addition, nascent micrometer-size aerosols produced from coughing/sneezing of infected people have the potential of containing many viruses, particularly for asymptomatic carriers.

...the recommended physical separation for social distancing is beneficial to prevent direct contact transmission but is insufficient (without face masks) to protect inhalation of virus-bearing aerosols (or even small droplets at intermediate proximity), owing to rapid air mixing.

Globalization 41.

[gebhk]

The problem with surface contacts is how quickly and comprehensively they spread and how long they remain viable even if their unit infection potential is small. I recall a fairly notorious experiment where the main subject had imitation snot squirted up his nostrils and then sent to attend a cocktail party. Neither he nor the other members of the party knew the purpose of the experiment. After a certain period of time, the experiment (the party) was halted. The 'snot' contained a dye visible only under special lighting and from this one noseful, had transferred to every damn surface within human reach and onto all the food and all the participants.

And yes, no doubt masks rapidly become contaminated with bugs which is why they need to be changed frequently. There is somewhere a paper on how mask-wearing affects range and spread pattern of droplets, but I couldn't find it quickly.