Fate of German Pacific Colonies w/ German Victory

uglystkvictm · Post by **uglystkvictm** » 26 Apr 2005 18:00

In 1918, had the German's been able to defeat the allies and secure victory in Europe what would have been the fate of Germany's pacific colonies. I don't see the Japanese just handing them over because the German's won in Europe, and the German's had no staging points to recapture the colonies meaning there was no way they could effectively fight a war against the Japanese. Would the German's just have accepted the lose of their Pacific colonies in a peace settlement with the Japanese?

panzerkrieg · Post by **panzerkrieg** » 27 Apr 2005 00:50

They can possibly embargo oil and other imports to force the japanease to negotiate.Assuming the german navy is free to operate w/o british interference.You have not mentioned anything about the RN,if british naval presence is intact in the north sea i dont see how the germans can spare enough ships to seriously threaten the japanease with a blockade.
The US will also be a major factor, if the germans are able to maintain friendly relations with the americans AND defeat entente in europe then it is likely that the combined US and german pressure will be exerted on japan.
If the germans do win in 1918 then surely france would be forced to give up many of her colonies like indochina,maybe after such a favourable settlement the kaiser may not be interested in these remote pacific islands.

uglystkvictm · Post by **uglystkvictm** » 29 Apr 2005 16:29

Yes Indochina, I also thought about that, but I feel confident in assuming that if Indochina had been handed over to the German's in a peace settlement with the French the Japanese would have occupied the colony, possibly before it could have been awarded to the German's. As for the Royal Navy I was thinking it would cease to be a factor with a German victory in Europe. We could ponder if the British might continue the war from across the channel like in 1940, but unlike in 1918 the British hadn't been fighting a very bloody war for the past four years, so once again I feel safe in assuming that if the German's forced the BEF off the continent the British would have come to terms with the German's removing the Royal Navy from the scenario. As for the American's that’s allot of what ifs but no matter what I don't see the American's putting pressure on the Japanese in favor of the German's. Even if the American's hadn't entered the war US-German relations were poor at best, and I'm sure the American's would rather have the Japanese occupying those islands rather then the German's, Japan was not considered a hostile nation at that time.

panzerkrieg · Post by **panzerkrieg** » 29 Apr 2005 22:18

uglystkvictm,
You are right about the American attitude towards the germans,considering the prevailing germanophobia at the time they would have preferred that the japanease occupy those islands.
What do you think will become of the french navy battleships ? If they are captured by the germans they could be used in the pacific against the japanease.The IJN of 1918-19 also did not have a naval airforce and its submarines were not such a big threat either.

RCW Mark · Post by **RCW Mark** » 30 Apr 2005 18:21

I'm sure the American's would rather have the Japanese occupying those islands rather then the German's, Japan was not considered a hostile nation at that time.

Can't go with that. The US already saw the Pacific as "their" sea and an expansionist Japan as a threat, even before WWI. The Americans sent an expeditionary force to Siberia in 1918 for the purpose of trying to limit Japanese expansion, and I find it hard to believe that they would have looked on calmly while the Japanese took over any strategic Pacific Islands. Indeed, since Germany was never going to be a major Pacific naval power, the US would almost certainly have preferred to have Germany hold them (since if Germany won WWI, it seems almost certain they would have had to do it before the US entered, so there would be no lingering ill will about being enemies).

Mark

panzerkrieg · Post by **panzerkrieg** » 30 Apr 2005 20:32

Mark,
There is also the possibility of US underestimating the japanese and overestimating the strenght of the german navy

RCW Mark · Post by **RCW Mark** » 30 Apr 2005 20:59

Agreed, though after the Russo-Japanese War one had to be pretty hard-boiled racist to not realise that the Japanese were a force to be reckoned with. The determination of President Wilson to not let the Japanese get away with anything in Siberia in 1918 and 1919 suggests that he was unlikely to underestimate them, but another President might not have been so minded.

Mark

England The Great · Post by **England The Great** » 30 Apr 2005 22:34

Interestingly about the 1904-1905 war. Japanese Admiral Togo in 1875, returned to Japan from England where he had studied English naval tactics for many years. Then he won the battle at Tsuchima. It was a brilliant naval victory, the kind is rare in history. Togo's naval victory led to a decisive turning point in the Russo-Japanese war, eliminating Russian sea power in the Pacific for decades.

panzerkrieg · Post by **panzerkrieg** » 01 May 2005 05:03

Although Togo's victory was indeed decisive we must remember the pitiful state of the russian baltic fleet which has sailed halfway across the world.

England The Great · Post by **England The Great** » 01 May 2005 09:38

The Russians were confident this time in overturning the previous losses it had suffered. Otherwise Admiral Rojdestvensky surely wouldn't set sail with a defunct fleet to suffer more humiliation.

Here's the battle order of the two fleets:

http://www.geocities.com/SouthBeach/Mar ... ushima.htm

And Togo's uncanny comparison to Nelson (he even copied Nelsons famous phrase:)

http://www.remembernelson.com/admiraltogo.htm