Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

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Futurist
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Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by Futurist » 04 Jan 2020 00:41

Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII (for instance, in a scenario without the Fall of France)? My hunch is to say No since the 1946 Italian monarchy referendum was actually relatively close--with the winning republican side being less than 10% ahead of the losing monarchical side. However, I was wondering what the rest of you think about this.

Any thoughts on this?

Dili
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by Dili » 04 Jan 2020 09:58

I don't think it would. Some even think that it was the war/Fascist tainted king that sabotaged (unintentionally?) the monarchy by not giving the power earlier to the heir https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umberto_II_of_Italy

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Sheldrake
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by Sheldrake » 04 Jan 2020 11:58

Futurist wrote:
04 Jan 2020 00:41
Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII (for instance, in a scenario without the Fall of France)? My hunch is to say No since the 1946 Italian monarchy referendum was actually relatively close--with the winning republican side being less than 10% ahead of the losing monarchical side. However, I was wondering what the rest of you think about this.

Any thoughts on this?
No.

It was not certain that Italy would lose its monarchy until the Americans said they were not prepared for it to continue.

Futurist
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by Futurist » 05 Jan 2020 01:31

Dili wrote:
04 Jan 2020 09:58
I don't think it would. Some even think that it was the war/Fascist tainted king that sabotaged (unintentionally?) the monarchy by not giving the power earlier to the heir https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umberto_II_of_Italy
Yep, I've heard that as well--as in, that the monarchical side would have had higher odds of winning this referendum had VE III resigned in favor of his son Umberto earlier--such as in 1943 rather than 1946.

BTW, it's quite interesting that Trentino appears to have been the most pro-republican region in Italy in 1946. Could this be due to their lack of historical attachment to the Savoyards since they were ruled by the Hapsburgs until 1918?

Futurist
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by Futurist » 05 Jan 2020 01:32

Sheldrake wrote:
04 Jan 2020 11:58
Futurist wrote:
04 Jan 2020 00:41
Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII (for instance, in a scenario without the Fall of France)? My hunch is to say No since the 1946 Italian monarchy referendum was actually relatively close--with the winning republican side being less than 10% ahead of the losing monarchical side. However, I was wondering what the rest of you think about this.

Any thoughts on this?
No.

It was not certain that Italy would lose its monarchy until the Americans said they were not prepared for it to continue.
Do you have a source for this claim, please?

James A Pratt III
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by James A Pratt III » 05 Jan 2020 23:35

If you look what happened to Italy as a result of WW I if Mussolini had kept Italy out of WW II. He would have been thought of as a great leader ect. Note he did remain popular in Italy as late as the fall of 1942 from what I have read. So I think the Italian monarchy has a fairly good chance of surviving. It sort of depends on the Monarch.

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Sheldrake
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Re: Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII?

Post by Sheldrake » 06 Jan 2020 12:05

Futurist wrote:
05 Jan 2020 01:32
Sheldrake wrote:
04 Jan 2020 11:58
Futurist wrote:
04 Jan 2020 00:41
Does the Italian monarchy still get abolished if Italy doesn't enter WWII (for instance, in a scenario without the Fall of France)? My hunch is to say No since the 1946 Italian monarchy referendum was actually relatively close--with the winning republican side being less than 10% ahead of the losing monarchical side. However, I was wondering what the rest of you think about this.

Any thoughts on this?
No.

It was not certain that Italy would lose its monarchy until the Americans said they were not prepared for it to continue.
Do you have a source for this claim, please?
James JHolland "Italy's Sorrow pp 247-251 This is an oversimplification but it is clear that the drive for abdication was from the Italian Americans and Sforza. The Soviets were keen on abolishing the monarchy.

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