At what point did Germany lose WW2?

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BDV
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by BDV » 09 Sep 2019 20:20

HistoryGeek2019 wrote: Hitler had always planned for war against the United States. He viewed the USA as a threat that Germany could deal with rather than a giant that would crush him. He severely overestimated the time it would take the USA to pose an existential threat to Germany and thought he could secure West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic Islands against the USA.
I think that the method to Barbarossa madness makes much more sense under the assumption that GROFAZ and the underlings underestimated the timeframe in which US could engage Germany on the Continent (1942 instead of historical 1943).

Agree with your other points.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

TheMarcksPlan
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 10 Sep 2019 04:34

HistoryGeek2019 wrote:
08 Sep 2019 23:52
Hitler had always planned for war against the United States. He viewed the USA as a threat that Germany could deal with rather than a giant that would crush him. He severely overestimated the time it would take the USA to pose an existential threat to Germany and thought he could secure West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic Islands against the USA. Norman Goda details this in Tomorrow the World.

Likewise, Hitler and the High Command were jubilant when news of Pearl Harbor reached them. They had long believed that US entry into the war was inevitable, but now they had the Japanese navy as an ally. They believed that Germany's Uboats and the Japanese navy could hold off there USA long enough for Germany to secure its hold on Europe. The reasoning behind the declaration of war was to stretch the US Navy with a two front war.

Ultimately, it didn't matter. FDR wanted war with Germany and was going to get it. The US military would have mobilized just as fast as in the OTL if Germany hadn't declared war. The only difference it might have made is maybe Operation Torch gets pushed back a few months. But D-Day still happens on June 6, 1944, and Germany still surrenders in May 1945.
As with many things Hitler, there's evidence for and against this viewpoint. My take is that Hitler was mostly an incoherent person driven primarily by will to power, resentment, and bitterness. That's not to say that a deeper dive into the scholarship couldn't convince me otherwise.

VolVI of DZRW, for example, cites Japanese ambassador Oshima as reporting that Hitler confessed he didnt know how to beat - or even resist - the US. The same work (chapter on Hitler's strategy between Pearl and Stalingrad) contains copious cites to Hitler's internal planning and conversations as stating that the US would be able to intervene in Europe in 1942- thus Barbarossa's truncated time allowance. IMO Hitler overestimated the US during 40-41 and underestimated them later. And held every other opinion in between and at other times. At times he waxed on about future generations fighting the US, at other times he foresaw the US's imminent demise.

DRZW calls Hitler's decision to declare war a "flight forward out of a dilemma": think of the outnumbered guy who charges 5 others in a bar fight when he should be running away. That seems basically right to me. At some level Hitler must have known he was fucked after Barbarossa failed, even if that level wasn't conscious. Every decision taken thereafter is increasingly the flailing of a cornered rabid animal more than rational strategic thought.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 10 Sep 2019 06:05

What is DZRW?

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 10 Sep 2019 06:18

Das Deutsche Reich und der Zweite Weltkrieg : authorative source for this subject . Exists also in English translation .

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by jesk » 10 Sep 2019 19:14

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
10 Sep 2019 04:34
At some level Hitler must have known he was fucked after Barbarossa failed, even if that level wasn't conscious. Every decision taken thereafter is increasingly the flailing of a cornered rabid animal more than rational strategic thought.
He himself failed Barbarossa. June 25, July 2, July 13, Hitler’s decisions against the will of the generals to attack Moscow. The last attempt was on August 18, and again Hitler’s ban.
Hitler forbade the offensive on the Valdai heights, explaining this by the relapse of the outdated tactics of the struggle for dominant heights.
"The Barbarossa Failure" contains hundreds of details that you ignore. Hitler ruined Barbarossa. The seizure of Soviet territory in the summer of 1941 could occur much faster.

Image

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 10 Sep 2019 23:10

HistoryGeek2019 wrote:
10 Sep 2019 06:05
What is DZRW?
Sorry - Deutsche Reich und der Zweite Weltkrieg or Germany and the Second World War. DRZW not DZRW as my first mention mis-typed.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 11 Sep 2019 03:33

HistoryGeek2019 wrote:
10 Sep 2019 06:05
What is DZRW?
Here's one of the pages to which I was referring, documenting Hitler's conversations with Oshima:

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Here's another, analyzing Hitler's declaration of war on the U.S.:

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As DRZW's cites show, Hitler often spoke of the U.S. as the greatest threat to the world and as a nascent colossus. Only later, when cornered and doomed, did Hitler seek to reassure his associates to adhere to his death-ride by denigrating American military potential.

Next up is Hitler telling Jodl that America could intervene in Europe in 1942 and discussion of his supine posture regarding American neutrality violations during 1941:

Image

This is Volume 6 of DRZW/GSW btw.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by jesk » 11 Sep 2019 18:49

about Hitler, Monologe

https://reich-erwacht.livejournal.com/16395.html

Some historians say that Picker made his notes secretly from Hitler, but according to Martin Bormann: “Having orientated himself in the situation, he [Picker] realized that he needed some kind of cover, and he found an influential patron in the person of Reichsleiter Bormann. He began to give Picker "official assignments": briefly record in a notebook some Hitler's banquet statements, and then immediately after the meal reconstruct them in a synoptic record. " After some time, Bormann allegedly showed Hitler the notes of Picker, and the Führer gave the go-ahead to continue the work. Even if he agrees with this version, it remains unclear why the Fuhrer allowed Picker to take the transcripts with him (so that they again become an instrument of allied propaganda?),
Most likely, the Picker from Stavka could not stand any transcripts. According to one possible version, the Fuehrer's “monologues” were “restored” to captivity under the supervision of British officers. On the other - Picker, in need of money, "reproduced" the monologues "from memory, guided by his own ideas and representations. In both cases, the value of such a source is small, and serious historians prefer to do without its help. But publicists of all stripes are very pleased to quote Hitler's “revelations” that, for example, Ukraine should be planted with nettles, or that “raw roots and similar things contribute to the preservation of children's health” ...

ChrisDR68
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ChrisDR68 » 12 Sep 2019 23:09

The interesting question is how would the war have played out had Hitler changed his mind regarding the launching of Barbarossa in June 1941 and had cancelled the entire enterprise.

At the very least it's likely the war would have lasted quite a bit longer than the 47 months it did do in the OTL from that date.

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Robert Rojas
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RE: At What Point Did National Socialist Germany Lose World War Two?

Post by Robert Rojas » 13 Sep 2019 00:44

Greetings to both citizen ChrisDR68 and the community as a whole. Howdy Chris! Well sir, in deference to your point OR points-of-view as articulated within your posting of Thursday - September 12, 2019 - 2:09pm, it is the opinion of old yours truly that it would not make little or no difference what the all knowing Bohemian Corporal did OR did not do during the Summer of year 1941. Both the Third Reich and the Imperial Japanese Empire have a date with destiny after the pivotal event of July 16, 1945 in Alamogordo, New Mexico. Just saying. Well, that's my latest two Yankee cents worth on this continuing sojourn down the primrose path to Armageddon - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day no matter where you just might happen to find yourself on Terra Firma.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Globalization41 » 13 Sep 2019 02:25

Hi Robert. What would the situation have been before Alamogordo I wonder if Hitler had decided not to invade the Soviet Union? … … Hitler was the main driving force behind WWII. The war between China and Japan was a local affair until Pearl Harbor. The Japanese military was planning the raid before they knew about Hitler's decision to attack Russia. Some Japanese even hoped Stalin would join the Axis. … If Hitler had called off Barbarossa after Crete, Japan would have either raided Pearl Harbor or not. The Japanese brass had overestimated Japan's capabilities and were looking for pretexts to hit Hawaii regardless of what Hitler did. Congress would have split on declaring war with Germany. The Alamogordo project might not have been given a blank check. The A-bomb might have been delayed without Hitler's war declaration. … Without Barbarossa, Hitler would have needed a large standing army to balance Stalin's buildup. Meanwhile, Europe could have easily been sealed off at the Suez, Dardanelles, and Gibraltar. … Without being at war with Germany, the U.S. might have defeated Japan sooner than 1945. Or possibly, Japan might not have surrendered the main island (before '45) without the use of the A-Bomb. … However, Hitler dreamed of and planned the invasion of Russia. He even bypassed invading England.

Globalization41.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by philabos » 13 Sep 2019 03:31

Not that it was in his nature, but interesting to speculate what could have happened if Germany conquered Poland in 1939 and then simply stopped at the USSR/German agreed line. No invasion of the Low Countries and no attack on France.
IMHO I believe France would have eventually just found an excuse to make peace, perhaps with Italian mediation. The Dutch and Belgians would breathe a sigh of relief. The British would probably be furious, but doubt there was much that could accomplish alone.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Globalization41 » 13 Sep 2019 04:18

Very interesting. Suppose Hitler had been bumped off after the fall of Poland. Stalin might still have occupied the Baltic States, while the new German regime might have opposed the Russian takeover. The Soviets would have applied more pressure on the Turkish Straits. … With Hitler gone, Germany might have been more likely to have aided Finland in the Winter War. … … Hitler had put aiding Finland on hold until dealing with France and Britain. The Norway blitz with small forces blocked the British and checked Stalin.

Globalization41.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 13 Sep 2019 07:30

Globalization41 wrote:
13 Sep 2019 04:18
Very interesting. Suppose Hitler had been bumped off after the fall of Poland. Stalin might still have occupied the Baltic States, while the new German regime might have opposed the Russian takeover. The Soviets would have applied more pressure on the Turkish Straits. … With Hitler gone, Germany might have been more likely to have aided Finland in the Winter War. … … Hitler had put aiding Finland on hold until dealing with France and Britain. The Norway blitz with small forces blocked the British and checked Stalin.

Globalization41.
Thhere is no proof, even no indication that a new German regime would have opposed the Soiviet takeover of the Baltics, besides: it could not .Neither would it have aided Finland.
PS : Weserübung did not check Stalin .

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Globalization41 » 13 Sep 2019 11:46

With Hitler gone in Oct. 1939, who would have taken over? Himmler? Goering? The Army? The Navy?

Globalization41.

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