At what point did Germany lose WW2?

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MarkF617
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 03 Dec 2022 10:04

Aida 1

I am busy at the moment so will return with sources to prove my point when I can. In the meantime, I suggest you look for some sources to back up your claims.

For now, I will just ask one thing: Why on earth do many people fight tooth and nail to prove that Germany should have won if they had just done it ever so slightly different? They had no chance from the beginning. They tried to defeat Great Britain but were too weak so instead they invaded the Soviet Union and were again too weak, so they then declared war in the USA! France was the only country in their league which was beaten by Germany, at the time they might have looked scary but looking back they just had a head start and once everyone caught up, they were finished.

Thanks

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Aida1
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 03 Dec 2022 15:09

MarkF617 wrote:
03 Dec 2022 10:04
Aida 1

I am busy at the moment so will return with sources to prove my point when I can. In the meantime, I suggest you look for some sources to back up your claims.

For now, I will just ask one thing: Why on earth do many people fight tooth and nail to prove that Germany should have won if they had just done it ever so slightly different? They had no chance from the beginning. They tried to defeat Great Britain but were too weak so instead they invaded the Soviet Union and were again too weak, so they then declared war in the USA! France was the only country in their league which was beaten by Germany, at the time they might have looked scary but looking back they just had a head start and once everyone caught up, they were finished.

Thanks

Mark.
You are wrong. Discussions about certain points where Germany could have done better by different decisions are mostly not about winning the war.
The other statements you make are very simplistic.

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MarkF617
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 03 Dec 2022 21:34

Yes, that last response was simplistic, as I said I will bring sources to the discussion when I have time. However it sums up this whole discussion, and many threads on this forum seem to revolve around all the mistakes the Germans made and how much better they could have done of it hey had made different choices had been made. There is never a thread about allied mistakes prolonging the third Reich it is more often assumed the Allies were lucky to get away with it when infact they were simply massivly stronger. You have repeatedly dismissed everything I say with opinion posts, please back these up with evidence as I intend to do with my posts.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Aida1
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 04 Dec 2022 08:48

MarkF617 wrote:
03 Dec 2022 21:34
Yes, that last response was simplistic, as I said I will bring sources to the discussion when I have time. However it sums up this whole discussion, and many threads on this forum seem to revolve around all the mistakes the Germans made and how much better they could have done of it hey had made different choices had been made. There is never a thread about allied mistakes prolonging the third Reich it is more often assumed the Allies were lucky to get away with it when infact they were simply massivly stronger. You have repeatedly dismissed everything I say with opinion posts, please back these up with evidence as I intend to do with my posts.
As Germany was on the losing side, it is not surprising you would mostly find threads about what would make things go better for Germany.
You started with expressing opinions without sources so i did not need to do more than express my opinion. There is nothing wrong with expressing opinions anyway. Sources are only needed about the historical facts.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 04 Dec 2022 12:09

Yes this is all my opinion, but opinion supported by facts to which you responded "none of this is true" therefore over the next week I will source my facts to back my opinions one at a time. As you claim different facts to back your opinion you will have to do the same.

Thanks

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 04 Dec 2022 14:32

MarkF617 wrote:
04 Dec 2022 12:09
Yes this is all my opinion, but opinion supported by facts to which you responded "none of this is true" therefore over the next week I will source my facts to back my opinions one at a time. As you claim different facts to back your opinion you will have to do the same.

Thanks

Mark.
You expressed an opinion on the material readiness of the german army to attack towards Moscow in august 1941 which was not shared by those in command at the time who certainly had more detailed facts than you on the state of the troops and clearly also a different appreciation on what combat readiness means based on these data and they were the experienced professionals. So I do not claim different facts than you.The whole issue did not come up anyway in the discussions between Hitler and his commanders about what objective to go for.
And you are clearly unaware of the fact that at the time of the decisionmaking in august 1941 statistically you can excpect more days of favourable weather before the winter counting from august than from october. Exactly the reason why the continuance of the attack against Moscow was proposed in august. Taifun did not start in october because Hitler had decided to give German army a rest.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 05 Dec 2022 14:18

But we do have more facts than the German commanders did, we can also look at it from the Soviet point of view which showed considerable forces between Smolensk and Moscow. The Soviets were attacking on mass and yelnia had to be given up due to massive casualties.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 05 Dec 2022 14:26

Now for some evidence:

This is the Briansk Front's War diary entries on the Weather in September to early November taken from post 388 by Art in the Barbarossa Delay: Balkans or rain thread:
1.9
Temperature: day +18-20 day, +7-10 night. Road conditions – satisfactory.
2.9
Temperature: +20-22 day, +8-10 night. Roads, especially unpaved, strongly suffer from ruts. Movement of automobiles, combat vehicles and tractors is problematic.
3.9
Temperature: +17-19 day, +7-10 night. Road conditions - satisfactory.
4.9
Temperature: +14-16 and raining during the day, +7-9 at night. Road conditions - satisfactory.
5.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +6-8 night. Road conditions deteriorated.
6.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +3-5 night. Low clouds in the morning. Road conditions are satisfactory.
7.9
Temperature: +14-16 day, +5-7 night. Road conditions are satisfactory.
8.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +2-4 night. Cold. Road conditions are satisfactory.
9.9
Temperature: +9-11 day, +3-5 night. Cold, drizzling rain, road conditions are satisfactory.
10.9
Temperature: +8 day, +2 night. Cloudy. Light rain. Road conditions are unsatisfactory, ruts.
11.9
Temperature: +3-4 day, +1-2 night. Drizzling autumn rain throughout the day. Mud and ruts on roads.
12.9
Thunderstorm in the night 11/12.9. Heavy rain throughout the day. Temperature: +5-7 day, +2-3 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory, movement of motor transport is hampered.
13.9
Temperature: +14-16 day, +7-9 night. Light rain beginning from the morning. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
14.9
Temperature: +15-17 day, +8-10 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
15.9
Temperature: +12-15. Road conditions are poor.
16.9
Temperature: +8-10 day, +4-6 night. Cloudy. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
17.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, +1-2 night. Cloudy. Road conditions are poor.
18.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, 0+2 night. Heavy clouds. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
19.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, 0+2 night. Road conditions are satisfactory.
20.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, +1-3 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
21.9
Temperature: +4-6 day, +1-3 night. Low clouds. Rain. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
22.9
Temperature; +5-7 day, +1-3 night.
23.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, 2-3 night.
24.9
Frost at dawn. Temperature: -2. First hoarfrost. +2-3 during the day.
25.9
Temperature: +5-6 day, +1-2 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
26.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +7-9 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
27.9
Temperature: -2 night, +3 day. Road conditions are satisfactory.
28.9
Temperature: +7 day, +2 night. Rain during the day. Road conditions deteriorate.
29.9
Temperature: +8-10. Rain almost all day long. Road conditions deteriorate.
30.9
Temperature: +5-7. Road conditions are satisfactory.
1.10
Temperature: +8-10. Cloudy. Road conditions are satisfactory.
2.10
Temperature: +6-8. Cloudy. Road conditions are satisfactory.
3.10
Temperature: +8-10. Clear. Road conditions are satisfactory.
4.10
Temperature: +12-14. Sunny. Road conditions are satisfactory.
5.10
Temperature: +7-9. Road conditions are satisfactory.
6.10
Temperature: +1-3. Frost at night. Paved roads are satisfactory, unpaved and field roads – unsatisfactory.
7.10
Temperature: -2 at night. Frost, snowstorm. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
8.10
Temperature: +2-5. Roads are in poor conditions. Mud. Hundreds of vehicles bogged down on dirt roads. Some vehicles sunk so much in mud that they could be extricated only with tractors. During relocation of the Front HQ many vehicles were observed abandoned on roads, some of them fully operational. Along the entire route roads and bridges were in poor conditions.
9.10
Temperature: -2. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
10.10
Temperature: +1-3. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
11.10
Temperature: -1-2. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
12.10
Temperature: -2. Roads are unsatisfactory and ill-passable for motor transport.
13.10
Temperature: -3-4
14.10
Temperature: +5-7. Roads are unsatisfactory and almost impassable for motor transport.
15.10
Temperature: +5-7. Roads are almost impassable for motor transport.
16.10
Temperature: +5-7. Mud. Roads are unsatisfactory and almost impassable for motor transport.
17.10
Temperature: +7-9. Mud. Roads are almost impassable for motor transport.
18.10
Temperature: +4-6. Roads are almost completely unsatisfactory. Heavy mud made roads almost impassible for motor transport.
19.10
Cloudy. Roads are soaked and almost impassible for all kinds of transport.
20.10
Rain in the night and morning. Cloudy, continues clouds at 100-200 meters. Drizzling rain throughout the day. Fog. Visibility 1-2 km. Temperature +1-2. Roads are soaked and impassible for transport.
21.10
Light rain, occasional fog. Temperature +5. Roads are impassible for motor transport and ill-passable for horse-drawn transport.
22.10
Clouds 7-10 points at 300-600 meters, occasional precipitation. Visibility 6-10 km, 2-4 km in the precipitation zone. Wind – W 3-5 m/s. Temperature +2-3.
23.10
Rainy, roads are soaked and impassible for motor transport. Visibility 4-6 km. Cloudy. Temperature +3-5.
24.10
Clouds 4-7 points at 600-800 meters. Occasional fog. Visibility 4-10 km. Wind - W 2-3 m/s. Temperature +4. Roads are impassible for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
25.10
Clouds: 8-10 points at 100-200 meters, occasional fog and drizzling rain. Wind – E 3-5 m/s. Temperature +3. Roads are impassable for motor transport. Orel-Yelets road is getting drier.
26.10
Roads are still impassable for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
27.10
Roads are still impassable for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
28.10
Temperature +1. Road conditions didn’t improve. Clouds 3-5 points at 500-1000 meters. Visibility limited to 10 km.
29.10
Clouds 3-5 points at 600-1000 meters, wind – N 3-5 m/s. Roads are impassable for motor transport.
30.10
Clouds 10 points at 200-300 meters, wind – SE 3-5 m/s. Visibility – 2-4 km. Temperature +5. Roads are impassable for motor transport – all in deep and viscous mud.
31.10
Clouds 1-2 points at 600-1000 meters. Visibility 4-10 km. wind SE 1 m/s. Temperature +7. Fog. Drizzling rain. Roads are impassible for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
1.11
Temperature +9. Wind – 3-5 m/s. clouds 2-4 points at 600-1000 meters. Road conditions haven’t improved.
2.11
Temperature: +6. Continuous light rain in some places. Clouds 9-10 points at 300-600 meters, visibility – 4-10 km. wind – NW 1-2 m/s. Temperature +6. Roads are still impassable for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
3.11
Clouds 10 points at 300-500 meters. Wind – NW 1-2 m/s. Temperature +5. Roads didn’t dry.
4.11
Clouds 10 points at 300-600 meters. Wind NW 3-5 m/s. Temperature +4. Roads are impassable.
5.11
Clouds 7-10 points at 300-600 meters. Wind – N 1-2 m/s. Temperature -2. Roads have frozen but haven’t improved.
6.11
Temperature -2. Roads have frozen somewhat but are still ill-passable for motor transport.
7.11
Temperature: -4. Roads have improved somewhat due to frost. Clouds 7-10 points at 200-300 meters, light snowfall. Wind – SE 1 m/s.
8.11
Clouds 3-5 points at 300-600 meters. Visibility 4-10 km. Wind SE 3-5 m/s. Temperature +2. Roads are melting and deteriorating.
9.11
Clouds 9-10 points at 100-200 meters. Snowfalls, occasional fog. Visibility 2-3 km. Wind SW 5-7 km. Temperature +2. Roads have soaked and deteriorated.
10.11
Clouds 7-10 points at 200-300 meters, occasional fog. Wind SW 1-2 m/s. Temperature +1. Roads are melting and deteriorating.
11.10
Clouds 10 points at 300-600 meters, Visibility 2 km. Wind NE 7-10 m/s. Temperature -2. Roads are freezing and improving.
This clearly shows that the weather was atrocious in September so an earlier start would not help avoid the mud.

Thanks

Mark.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Aida1
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 05 Dec 2022 18:48

MarkF617 wrote:
05 Dec 2022 14:18
But we do have more facts than the German commanders did, we can also look at it from the Soviet point of view which showed considerable forces between Smolensk and Moscow. The Soviets were attacking on mass and yelnia had to be given up due to massive casualties.
The german high command wanted to beat large enemy forces by going for Moscow . Moscow as an objective is a means to the end of destroying the enemy army so referring to the presence of large soviet forces only confirms that this was the way to go. Yelnia was the perfect springboard for the attack against Moscow which is the reason why the red army wanted to take it and for the germans to hold IT long as it was intended to go for Moscow.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 05 Dec 2022 18:57

MarkF617 wrote:
05 Dec 2022 14:26
Now for some evidence:

This is the Briansk Front's War diary entries on the Weather in September to early November taken from post 388 by Art in the Barbarossa Delay: Balkans or rain thread:
1.9
Temperature: day +18-20 day, +7-10 night. Road conditions – satisfactory.
2.9
Temperature: +20-22 day, +8-10 night. Roads, especially unpaved, strongly suffer from ruts. Movement of automobiles, combat vehicles and tractors is problematic.
3.9
Temperature: +17-19 day, +7-10 night. Road conditions - satisfactory.
4.9
Temperature: +14-16 and raining during the day, +7-9 at night. Road conditions - satisfactory.
5.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +6-8 night. Road conditions deteriorated.
6.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +3-5 night. Low clouds in the morning. Road conditions are satisfactory.
7.9
Temperature: +14-16 day, +5-7 night. Road conditions are satisfactory.
8.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +2-4 night. Cold. Road conditions are satisfactory.
9.9
Temperature: +9-11 day, +3-5 night. Cold, drizzling rain, road conditions are satisfactory.
10.9
Temperature: +8 day, +2 night. Cloudy. Light rain. Road conditions are unsatisfactory, ruts.
11.9
Temperature: +3-4 day, +1-2 night. Drizzling autumn rain throughout the day. Mud and ruts on roads.
12.9
Thunderstorm in the night 11/12.9. Heavy rain throughout the day. Temperature: +5-7 day, +2-3 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory, movement of motor transport is hampered.
13.9
Temperature: +14-16 day, +7-9 night. Light rain beginning from the morning. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
14.9
Temperature: +15-17 day, +8-10 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
15.9
Temperature: +12-15. Road conditions are poor.
16.9
Temperature: +8-10 day, +4-6 night. Cloudy. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
17.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, +1-2 night. Cloudy. Road conditions are poor.
18.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, 0+2 night. Heavy clouds. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
19.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, 0+2 night. Road conditions are satisfactory.
20.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, +1-3 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
21.9
Temperature: +4-6 day, +1-3 night. Low clouds. Rain. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
22.9
Temperature; +5-7 day, +1-3 night.
23.9
Temperature: +5-7 day, 2-3 night.
24.9
Frost at dawn. Temperature: -2. First hoarfrost. +2-3 during the day.
25.9
Temperature: +5-6 day, +1-2 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
26.9
Temperature: +10-12 day, +7-9 night. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
27.9
Temperature: -2 night, +3 day. Road conditions are satisfactory.
28.9
Temperature: +7 day, +2 night. Rain during the day. Road conditions deteriorate.
29.9
Temperature: +8-10. Rain almost all day long. Road conditions deteriorate.
30.9
Temperature: +5-7. Road conditions are satisfactory.
1.10
Temperature: +8-10. Cloudy. Road conditions are satisfactory.
2.10
Temperature: +6-8. Cloudy. Road conditions are satisfactory.
3.10
Temperature: +8-10. Clear. Road conditions are satisfactory.
4.10
Temperature: +12-14. Sunny. Road conditions are satisfactory.
5.10
Temperature: +7-9. Road conditions are satisfactory.
6.10
Temperature: +1-3. Frost at night. Paved roads are satisfactory, unpaved and field roads – unsatisfactory.
7.10
Temperature: -2 at night. Frost, snowstorm. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
8.10
Temperature: +2-5. Roads are in poor conditions. Mud. Hundreds of vehicles bogged down on dirt roads. Some vehicles sunk so much in mud that they could be extricated only with tractors. During relocation of the Front HQ many vehicles were observed abandoned on roads, some of them fully operational. Along the entire route roads and bridges were in poor conditions.
9.10
Temperature: -2. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
10.10
Temperature: +1-3. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
11.10
Temperature: -1-2. Road conditions are unsatisfactory.
12.10
Temperature: -2. Roads are unsatisfactory and ill-passable for motor transport.
13.10
Temperature: -3-4
14.10
Temperature: +5-7. Roads are unsatisfactory and almost impassable for motor transport.
15.10
Temperature: +5-7. Roads are almost impassable for motor transport.
16.10
Temperature: +5-7. Mud. Roads are unsatisfactory and almost impassable for motor transport.
17.10
Temperature: +7-9. Mud. Roads are almost impassable for motor transport.
18.10
Temperature: +4-6. Roads are almost completely unsatisfactory. Heavy mud made roads almost impassible for motor transport.
19.10
Cloudy. Roads are soaked and almost impassible for all kinds of transport.
20.10
Rain in the night and morning. Cloudy, continues clouds at 100-200 meters. Drizzling rain throughout the day. Fog. Visibility 1-2 km. Temperature +1-2. Roads are soaked and impassible for transport.
21.10
Light rain, occasional fog. Temperature +5. Roads are impassible for motor transport and ill-passable for horse-drawn transport.
22.10
Clouds 7-10 points at 300-600 meters, occasional precipitation. Visibility 6-10 km, 2-4 km in the precipitation zone. Wind – W 3-5 m/s. Temperature +2-3.
23.10
Rainy, roads are soaked and impassible for motor transport. Visibility 4-6 km. Cloudy. Temperature +3-5.
24.10
Clouds 4-7 points at 600-800 meters. Occasional fog. Visibility 4-10 km. Wind - W 2-3 m/s. Temperature +4. Roads are impassible for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
25.10
Clouds: 8-10 points at 100-200 meters, occasional fog and drizzling rain. Wind – E 3-5 m/s. Temperature +3. Roads are impassable for motor transport. Orel-Yelets road is getting drier.
26.10
Roads are still impassable for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
27.10
Roads are still impassable for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
28.10
Temperature +1. Road conditions didn’t improve. Clouds 3-5 points at 500-1000 meters. Visibility limited to 10 km.
29.10
Clouds 3-5 points at 600-1000 meters, wind – N 3-5 m/s. Roads are impassable for motor transport.
30.10
Clouds 10 points at 200-300 meters, wind – SE 3-5 m/s. Visibility – 2-4 km. Temperature +5. Roads are impassable for motor transport – all in deep and viscous mud.
31.10
Clouds 1-2 points at 600-1000 meters. Visibility 4-10 km. wind SE 1 m/s. Temperature +7. Fog. Drizzling rain. Roads are impassible for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
1.11
Temperature +9. Wind – 3-5 m/s. clouds 2-4 points at 600-1000 meters. Road conditions haven’t improved.
2.11
Temperature: +6. Continuous light rain in some places. Clouds 9-10 points at 300-600 meters, visibility – 4-10 km. wind – NW 1-2 m/s. Temperature +6. Roads are still impassable for motor transport and ill-passable for animal transport.
3.11
Clouds 10 points at 300-500 meters. Wind – NW 1-2 m/s. Temperature +5. Roads didn’t dry.
4.11
Clouds 10 points at 300-600 meters. Wind NW 3-5 m/s. Temperature +4. Roads are impassable.
5.11
Clouds 7-10 points at 300-600 meters. Wind – N 1-2 m/s. Temperature -2. Roads have frozen but haven’t improved.
6.11
Temperature -2. Roads have frozen somewhat but are still ill-passable for motor transport.
7.11
Temperature: -4. Roads have improved somewhat due to frost. Clouds 7-10 points at 200-300 meters, light snowfall. Wind – SE 1 m/s.
8.11
Clouds 3-5 points at 300-600 meters. Visibility 4-10 km. Wind SE 3-5 m/s. Temperature +2. Roads are melting and deteriorating.
9.11
Clouds 9-10 points at 100-200 meters. Snowfalls, occasional fog. Visibility 2-3 km. Wind SW 5-7 km. Temperature +2. Roads have soaked and deteriorated.
10.11
Clouds 7-10 points at 200-300 meters, occasional fog. Wind SW 1-2 m/s. Temperature +1. Roads are melting and deteriorating.
11.10
Clouds 10 points at 300-600 meters, Visibility 2 km. Wind NE 7-10 m/s. Temperature -2. Roads are freezing and improving.
This clearly shows that the weather was atrocious in September so an earlier start would not help avoid the mud.

Thanks

Mark.
An earlier start in the last week of august will always give you a much longer window of opportunity and more days of acceptable weather within it than when you attack very late and have a very short window. And you seriously overstate when you pretend that the weather was awfull everyday in september. Also you are doing hindsight because the decision is made in august so one needs to base oneself on the weather you could statistically expect. From a weather viewpoint it would make no sense at all to intentionally wait until the beginning of october if one decided to give priority to Moscow.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 05 Dec 2022 20:34

Proof that this was not normal autumn weather for Russia and that rain could not normally be expected in September.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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MarkF617
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 05 Dec 2022 20:37

The Germans retreated from Yelnia because they were too weak to hold it
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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Aida1
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 06 Dec 2022 07:33

MarkF617 wrote:
05 Dec 2022 20:34
Proof that this was not normal autumn weather for Russia and that rain could not normally be expected in September.
You are still in denial of the fact that when you start in august you will have more good days than when you start in october. That is not rocket science. The only reason Taifun started in october is that Hitler lost interest in Moscow at some point.
Last edited by Aida1 on 06 Dec 2022 07:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Aida1 » 06 Dec 2022 07:35

MarkF617 wrote:
05 Dec 2022 20:37
The Germans retreated from Yelnia because they were too weak to hold it
Not relevant at all.It could be held long enough if the choice was made to go for Moscow.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by MarkF617 » 09 Dec 2022 14:22

You continue to state they could expect more better days if they attacked a month earlier but you have not proven that the weather could be expected to be better. When do the rains usually start? When did they start in 1942, 1943.

You are correct that the aim was to destroy the Red Army and attacking towards large concentrations of forces in front of Moscow could achieve this but army group Centre was too weak at this time. On top of this you leave an extra 600,000 Soviet troops near Kiev and many troops between AG Centre and Kiev which were attacking the flanks relentlessly. You will also have to either do without Panzer Group 4 or leave AG North tankless and unable to reach Leningrad. AG Centre was simply too weak.

The following is taken from Operation Barbarossa and Germany’s defeat in the east by Davis Stahel:

To have any confidence about breaking the Red Army’s resistance and ending the war in 1941, a great deal of hope was placed in the refitting of the two panzer groups in Army Group Centre that had been underway since early August. Guderian had originally said he would have finished his refitting by 15 August, but delays in the arrival of spare parts and replacement engines, as well as the constant action of his forces especially in the south, meant that his panzer group was scarcely in better shape than before re-fitting began. On 19 August Panzer Group 2 notified Army Group Centre of the results of it’s refitting and the subsequent combat readiness of it’s panzer corps. Schweppenburg’s XXIV Panzer Corp and Lemelson’s XXXXVII Panzer Corp were still in action south of Roslavl and their respective time spent refitting was reported as: “XXIV Panzer Corp at no time since the beginning of the war. XXXXVII Panzer Corp only with the 18th Panzer Division fully allowed rest.” The recommendation of the panzer group was that both panzer corps needed ten days of technical refitting to make good material losses and four days of rest for the personnel. Vietinghoff’s XXXXVI Panzer Corp was only relieved from its latest commitment to the Volatile Yel’nya salient on the same day the report was prepared (19 August), and even then one brigade remained at the front. The corp was reported to be in need of rest and repairs, which for personnel and equipment would require until 23 August. Yet undermining any prospective extension to the refitting process were the same two problems which until now had proved detrimental. The first was the constant commitment of panzer forces to action, and the second was the persistent lack of spare parts. Even on 19 August four days after the refitting was due to be completed, Panzer Group 2 informed Bock’s command “the technical refitting of all corps depends on the arrival of the spare parts.” Furthermore, with a view to the worn and dust-spoilt engines of the panzer group, the report advised that future operations would need to take into account the increased oil consumption. 233 As an example of how extreme the situation was becoming, the 10th Panzer Division reported on 17 August:
The condition of the trucks is in large part bad…For major repairs, which are necessary for many trucks, there are no spare parts. It must therefore be understood that with the beginning of a new operation, trucks will have to be towed in order to take them with us.234
Hoth’s panzer group also prepared a report to Army Group Centre on its combat readiness with a similarly pessimistic conclusion regarding its success in refitting the panzer divisions. Hoth had originally stated that his refitting would be finished on 20 August, but the report produced on 21 August revealed that the number of available panzers had not substantially increased at all. Figures for the combat readiness of the individual panzer divisions were listed as follows: 7th Panzer Division 45 per cent (it had been at 60 per cent until the aforementioned total loss of 30 panzers), 19th Panzer Division 60 per cent, 20th Panzer Division 49 per cent and 12th Panzer Division 45 per cent.235 The overall average panzer strength was therefore about 50 per cent, which is the same figure Halder reported almost a month before at the end of the long advance towards Smolensk.236 Figures demonstrating personnel shortages also highlight the manpower deficiency within the panzer group. The 19th and 20th panzer divisions were at 75-80% percent of full strength. The 7Th Panzer Division was at 70 per cent strength and 14th Motorised Infantry Division was at 60-70 per cent strength. Both of these divisions, however, were expected to be raised to 80 per cent strength with the arrival of reinforcements, although it is not clear from the document when this was expected to take place.237 The serviceability of trucks for the panzer group was one area where the refitting period appeared to have made some significant improvements, although these were, in practice, short term remedies. At first glance the figures appear rather encouraging. Among the motorised infantry divisions the 20th was at 92 per cent of full strength, the 14th at 90 pre cent and the 18th at75 per cent strength. For the panzer divisions the results are somewhat less successful. The 12th was at 82 per cent of it’s full complement, the 19th at 80 per cent, the 7th at 75 per cent and the 20th at 70 per cent. As if to dissuade Bock’s army group from drawing an overly optimistic conclusion, it was made clear that the high number of French vehicles in the panzer group were almost at the end of their serviceability. For example, it was warned that the trucks in the 14th Motorised Infantry Division, which was now outfitted with 90 per cent of its original fleet, had “only a limited life expectancy”. Similarly, the 20th Panzer Division, with 70 per cent of its full strength, was noted to have “French trucks, which will not survive much longer”.238 Yet, even for those divisions with German trucks, the outlook was not fundamentally different and the prospect of a long advance over terrible roads would quickly see a sharp spike in the fallout rate.
On 22 August Army Group Centre’s war diary concluded: “the armoured units are so battle-weary and worn-out that there can be no question of a mass operative mission until they have completely replenished and repaired”.239 Two days later General Buhle reported to Halder that the combat strength of the infantry divisions across the eastern front had been reduced on average by 40 per cent and panzer divisions by 50 per cent.240 By the end of August panzer losses across the whole of the eastern front had reached 1,488, with Hitler still determined to withhold most of the new domestic production of panzers for later campaigns. As a result, only 96 replacements were released out of 815 new models produced between June and August 1941. Based on starting totals given on 22 June 1941, on 4th September the number of available panzers were as follows: total losses constituted about 30 per cent, those classified as under repair came to 23 per cent, leaving just 47 per cent ready for action. Within Army Group Centre, however, only 34 per cent of tanks were classified as ready for action.241 Hoth’s panzer group, reduced to three panzer divisions after 12th Panzer Division was subordinated to 16th Army, retained only 41 per cent of its initial strength. Guderian’s panzer group, reduced to four panzer divisions after the 10th Panzer Division was subordinated to 4th Army, fielded just 25 per cent of its original strength.242 The fact that Bock’s advance had already been stalled for a month clearly shows that the stiff Soviet resistance had had a ruinous impact on German plans. Even after the long pause, on 22 August large scale operations were judged to be out of the question. At the same time, a long term defence of the eastern front was determined to be “unbearable”243 The principle commanders at Army Group Centre and at the OKH correctly determined that Hitler’s preference for a southward swing would not lead to a comprehensive victory over the Soviet Union in 1941, yet their own plans for shattering the Red Army and seizing Moscow were reflective of the same wildly unrealistic optimism that had undermined Barbarossa from the beginning. By the end of August, it was clear that operation Barbarossa would fail in its essential goal to conquer the Soviet Union, which by extension destined Germany to almost certain defeat in a world war. The short window of opportunity to strike down the Soviet colossus had passed and the so called “Russian front” would continue to devour strength at an insufferable rate for German manpower deserves and military production. The arrival of winter would hit the struggling German armies with devastating effect and complete the “hollowing out” of German divisions, leaving many undermanned and inadequately equipped for much of the rest of the war. The implications of Barbarossa’s failure were already disturbingly apparent to some commanders. Hans Von Luck records the commander of the 7th Panzer Division telling his men: “this war is going to last longer than we would like…The days of Blitzkrieg are over.”244 Another German officer, Colonel Bernd von Kleist, described the situation metaphorically: “The German Army in fighting Russia is like an elephant attacking a host of ants. The elephant will kill thousands, perhaps even millions, of ants, but in the end their numbers will overcome him, and he will be eaten to the bone.”245 On the Soviet side, Stalin’s most successful commander of the war, Marshal Zhulov, summed up the German summer campaign:
“Gross miscalculations and mistakes were made in political and strategic estimates. The forces at Germany’s disposal, even including satellite reserves, were clearly inadequate for waging simultaneous operation in the three major sectors of the Soviet-German front. Because of this the enemy was compelled to halt his drive towards Moscow and to assume defensive positions on that front in order to divert part of the forces of Army Group Centre to support of Army group South, facing our troops on the Central and Southwest fronts.”246
While the German generals later found it convenient to blame Hitler’s interference, the harshness of the Soviet climate, and sheer numerical superiority of the Soviet Union, the fact remains that their plans for conquest of the Soviet Union were simply attempting too much. German successes in the early weeks of the war were enough to severely batter the Red Army, yet these came at an unexpectedly high cost to the motorised divisions upon which the blitzkrieg’s success depended. While Germany still needed to do more-in fact much more-to topple the Soviet Union in late August 1941, the offensive strength simply no longer existed.
You know you're British when you drive your German car to an Irish pub for a pint of Belgian beer before having an Indian meal. When you get home you sit on your Sweedish sofa and watch American programs on your Japanese TV.

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