German estimates of soviet losses ?

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
User avatar
Urmel
Member
Posts: 4336
Joined: 25 Aug 2008 09:34
Location: The late JBond

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Urmel » 12 Jul 2014 09:41

paspartoo wrote:
Big Yehudah wrote:i realize this topic is old but I am specifically interested in it, German estimates of Soviet Losses. Specifically OKW/OKH/FHO since they are somewhat vetted, attempting to get an accurate picture and not a single tanker who may or may not be inflated his kills for his own aggrandizement. Can anyone post sources, preferably freely available but anything would be helpful.
For soviet armor losses in the period 1941-44 they estimated 70.366:
http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.gr/2 ... front.html

According to Krivosheev's 'Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century', it was actually 82.900.
Err, no. :)

The document actually says that the Russians reported that they had destroyed 70,366 German tanks.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

NagaSadow
Member
Posts: 266
Joined: 11 Sep 2005 23:23
Location: Germania Incognita

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by NagaSadow » 12 Jul 2014 15:59

The last FHO estimates concerning Soviet tank losses, that I'm aware of anyway, are dated early April 1945. At that point they had counted 134.165 raw claims. Based on that number the estimate was 81.100 total losses, as claims before November 1942 were reduced by 20% and claims after that by 50%.

Source. T78 R465

steverodgers801
Member
Posts: 1147
Joined: 13 Aug 2011 18:02

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by steverodgers801 » 12 Jul 2014 19:57

The most important factor of losses is who controls the battlefield. The winner can recover vehicles, the loser was to write off his losses.

paspartoo
Member
Posts: 835
Joined: 07 Feb 2009 13:35

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by paspartoo » 13 Jul 2014 07:55

Urmel wrote:
paspartoo wrote:
Big Yehudah wrote:i realize this topic is old but I am specifically interested in it, German estimates of Soviet Losses. Specifically OKW/OKH/FHO since they are somewhat vetted, attempting to get an accurate picture and not a single tanker who may or may not be inflated his kills for his own aggrandizement. Can anyone post sources, preferably freely available but anything would be helpful.
For soviet armor losses in the period 1941-44 they estimated 70.366:
http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.gr/2 ... front.html

According to Krivosheev's 'Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century', it was actually 82.900.
Err, no. :)

The document actually says that the Russians reported that they had destroyed 70,366 German tanks.
Sorry, my bad! Here is a relevant paragraph from The Journal of Slavic Military Studies: ‘Analyzing World War II eastern front battles’ by Niklas Zetterling and Anders Frankson.

79. Of course it is quite common to find exaggerated German reports on Soviet tank losses. However, it seems that the Germans were closer to the truth when reporting enemy tank losses. 1 July-31 December 1943 German combat units reported that they had destroyed 30,668 Soviet tanks and assault guns, this was reduced by OKH to 15,344 to compensate for double-counting and vehicles that where repairable (BA-MA RH 10/77). This can be compared with recent Russian figures. According to Grif Sekretnosti Sniat (note 29, p.357) the Red Army lost (total write-offs) 23,500 tanks and assault guns during 1943. The period 1 January-30 June cost the Red Army 5,747 tanks (E. Bacon, 'Soviet Military Losses in WWII', JSMS 6/4 (Dec. 1993) p.623). Thus losses 1 July-31 December amounted to 17,753. This would indicate that troop reporting was about 70 per cent too high, while the figure OKH was working with was nearly 15 per cent too low.
A simple economist with an unhealthy interest in military and intelligence history.....
http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.com/

NagaSadow
Member
Posts: 266
Joined: 11 Sep 2005 23:23
Location: Germania Incognita

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by NagaSadow » 13 Jul 2014 11:30

Yes, those are similiar to my own estimates based on the FHO and Krivosheev's numbers. Overclaim by about 50% for the raw Axis claims and 10% underclaim for the German estimates based on the raw claims.

User avatar
Big Yehudah
Member
Posts: 33
Joined: 10 Jun 2014 23:49

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Big Yehudah » 07 Aug 2014 22:13

Thanks. I actually borrowed Zetterling's book and scanned the entire book from the library. But I'm hopefully looking for estimates for the entirety of the war along with any operation, campaign, or battle. Maybe estimates for each 6 month (or however the lenght might be) period of the whole war.

AriX
Member
Posts: 128
Joined: 29 Jun 2015 08:07
Location: Ukraine

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by AriX » 26 Feb 2017 10:53

What about estimations of manpower losses and planes ?

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6245
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Art » 26 Feb 2017 14:31


Stiltzkin
Member
Posts: 1083
Joined: 11 Apr 2016 12:29
Location: Coruscant

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Stiltzkin » 26 Feb 2017 18:32

German estimates for Soviet losses are in no way reliable and vice versa. Whats interesting from the document is their fairly accurate estimation of Soviet actual strength for 43.

steverodgers801
Member
Posts: 1147
Joined: 13 Aug 2011 18:02

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by steverodgers801 » 27 Feb 2017 02:27

their estimates did not include strategic reserves, the steppes front was unknown for example. Gehlen did correctly predict tank production, but that is probably one of the few instances

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6245
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Art » 27 Feb 2017 10:07

From another document (NARA T78 R414) Soviet personnel losses during a year Nov 42 - Oct 43 were estimated as 6 600 000, of them 3 309 000 irrecoverable losses (meaning apparently dead and missing). Replacements during the same period - 6 275 700 men (such an accuracy looks somewhat odd, but still).

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6245
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Art » 07 Jul 2017 08:38

Estimate from August 1942: 4.5 mln prisoners, 3 mln dead, 1.5 mln heavy wounds. From an intelligence report of the 9 AOK, 14.8.42:
http://wwii.germandocsinrussia.org/pages/594568/zooms/8
http://wwii.germandocsinrussia.org/pages/594569/zooms/8

Boby
Member
Posts: 2656
Joined: 19 Nov 2004 17:22
Location: Spain

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Boby » 07 Jul 2017 09:34

FHO estimate of Soviet Manpower and losses, Stand: 31.5.1943
http://wwii.germandocsinrussia.org/ru/n ... ect/zoom/6

Boby

Stiltzkin
Member
Posts: 1083
Joined: 11 Apr 2016 12:29
Location: Coruscant

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Jul 2017 00:40

FHO estimate of Soviet Manpower and losses, Stand: 31.5.1943
Thats a fairly decent estimate of main front forces, but an overall poor estimate of reserves and losses.

User avatar
Urmel
Member
Posts: 4336
Joined: 25 Aug 2008 09:34
Location: The late JBond

Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Urmel » 08 Jul 2017 08:18

steverodgers801 wrote:their estimates did not include strategic reserves, the steppes front was unknown for example. Gehlen did correctly predict tank production, but that is probably one of the few instances
Ein blindes Huhn findet auch mal ein Korn, as Gehlen would have said. The German saying that equals 'a broken clock is right twice a day'.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

Return to “German Strategy & General German Military Discussion”