you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

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Sid Guttridge
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Sid Guttridge » 20 Apr 2016 19:44

Hi Guys,

The discussion over oil seems to have missed an important point - Germany first had to supply its minimal domestic oil needs before it could devote any excess to warfare.

Thus the imports, from whatever source, were much more important than might otherwise appear because they helped Germany accumulate or preserve the excess stocks required to lubricate the war effort.

If I remember correctly, Germany only ever had about about six months of oil reserves at any one time and Russian and Romanian oil was vital in the first half of the war in sustaining this. Later in the war Soviet oil necessarily stopped arriving and Romanian production began to fall. Only then did Germany's growing domestic synthetic production fill the gap they left.

Finally, it should be remembered that the Italian war effort, and particularly the ability of its navy to put to sea, was largely dependent on the continued receipt of Romanian oil.

Cheers,

Sid.

ljadw
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 20 Apr 2016 20:50

1) what would be Germany's minimal domestic oil needs?

2)Why would a stock of 6 months be bad ? Besides how could anyone in Germany calculate the amont of a 6 months stock ? No one could predict the future and calculate how much fuel Germany would need in the next 6 months .

In 1940 there was a consumption of 5.8 million ton and a production of 6.8 million

1N 1941consumption was 7.3 and production 8.5

In 1942 consumption was 6.5 and production was 9

In 1943 consumption was 7 and production was 10.5


The big question is : how much was consumed by the military and how much by the civilians and could the civilian consumption be curtailed and how much ?

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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 20 Apr 2016 21:06

The army consumed in may/june 1940 270000 ton of fuel which was less than 5 % of the total consumption of 1940 and almost 4 % of the production /import of 1940 .

The USSR exported in 1940 some 700000 ton,some 10 % of the production /export and 12 % of the total consumption .700000 ton is less than 2000 ton and the army consumed in Fall Gelb/Fall Rot some 6000 ton a day . Thus the importance of the Soviet oil should be put in context and put in perspective .

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Gorque
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Gorque » 20 Apr 2016 21:12

ljadw wrote:1) what would be Germany's minimal domestic oil needs?

2)Why would a stock of 6 months be bad ? Besides how could anyone in Germany calculate the amont of a 6 months stock ? No one could predict the future and calculate how much fuel Germany would need in the next 6 months .

In 1940 there was a consumption of 5.8 million ton and a production of 6.8 million

1N 1941consumption was 7.3 and production 8.5

In 1942 consumption was 6.5 and production was 9

In 1943 consumption was 7 and production was 10.5


The big question is : how much was consumed by the military and how much by the civilians and could the civilian consumption be curtailed and how much ?
According to the above figures, Germany would be swimming in oil, but it wasn't. Germany not only had to contend with its own domestic consumption but those of its allies as well as the German occupied lands. This means that some type of energy was needed in order to prevent their economies from collapsing. Western Europe was an oil importation region prior to the conflict and was now cut-off from overseas oil supply due to the blockade.

ljadw
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 21 Apr 2016 04:40

While Europe was an oil importation region before the war , it is also so that before the war (and even after the war till the sixties) the importance of oil in Europe (the SU not included) was minor, very minor .
In 2 countries only did oil have a big importance in the energy mix : number one was the SU ,followed by the US .

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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by South » 21 Apr 2016 11:04

Good morning Ljadw,

Ref: "...how could...calculate the amount of a 6 months stock? ...No one could...calculate...";

Actually, there were/are formulas to do this. It is forecasting. I am not discussing accuracy nor contingencies' planning (eg the fuel deport at Kiel accidentally exploded).

I did this for over a decade as an oil company executive working with the US Government.

Of course many Mont Blanc fountain pens were punched into the fine, hardwood conference table and "discussions" could become somewhat loud.

.....

Ref other post; At the national level, both during WWII and onward (Cold War, Arab oil embargoes, etc), the military establishments do not get absolute priority for fuel. Other national components, both public sector and private sector, are represented at these "conference tables" and their positions are factored into deliberations. Recall that prior to the American "Watergate" scandal,our major national scandal was "Teapot Dome". Teapot Dome was a US Navy petroleum reserve.


Warm regards,

Bob

ljadw
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 21 Apr 2016 11:25

The stocks for the future would essentially depend on the consumption in the future and as no one could predict the future .....

Exemple : if the fuel consumption for the first 6 months of 2016 was 10000, what should be the stocks for the following 6 months ? No one can give an accurate prediction of the fuel consumption of the following 6 months ,especially in war time:if there was no Barbarossa in 1941, the German fuel consumption in 1941 would be lower, thus there would be no need for the same stocks as in 1940.

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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 21 Apr 2016 11:31

About Teapot Dome : the federal oil reserves were "sold" (at the friends) for a very low price.But,why were they sold ? Because the war was over and there was no longer need for big reserves .The reserves were built up in war time and after the war (which ended unexpectedly in november 1918) they were no longer needed .

If one had been able to predict that the war would be over in november 1918, it is probable that there would have been no build up .

Sid Guttridge
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Apr 2016 13:38

Hi ljadw,

1) I don't know what Germany's minimal domestic needs were.

2) I didn't say six months of fuel reserves was bad or good. However, to answer your question, it would be bad if one was expecting the war to last longer than 6 months.

We can know retrospectively how many months of oil reserves had at any one time. We don't have to predict anything.

If your consumption/production figures are correct, Germany built up an oil surplus of 8.2 million tons over 1940-43.This doesn't look very likely.

Cheers,

Sid.

P.S. You write, "In 2 countries only did oil have a big importance in the energy mix: number one was the SU, followed by the US." So nobody else had cars, ships, planes, factories, etc.?

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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Sid Guttridge » 21 Apr 2016 13:45

Hi ljadw,

I found this on another thread here:

"In 1938, of the total consumption of 44 million barrels, imports from overseas accounted for 28 million barrels or roughly 60 percent of the total supply. An additional 3.8 million barrels were imported overland from European sources (2.8 million barrels came from Romania alone), and another 3.8 million barrels were derived from domestic oil production. The remainder of the total, 9 million barrels, were produced synthetically. Although the total overseas imports were even higher in 1939 before the onset of the blockade in September (33 million barrels), this high proportion of overseas imports only indicated how precarious the fuel situation would become should Germany be cut off from them.

At the outbreak of the war, Germany’s stockpiles of fuel consisted of a total of 15 million barrels. The campaigns in Norway, Holland, Belgium, and France added another 5 million barrels in booty, and imports from the Soviet Union accounted for 4 million barrels in 1940 and 1.6 million barrels in the first half of 1941. Yet a High Command study in May of 1941 noted that with monthly military requirements for 7.25 million barrels and imports and home production of only 5.35 million barrels, German stocks would be exhausted by August 1941. The 26 percent shortfall could only be made up with petroleum from Russia. The need to provide the lacking 1.9 million barrels per month and the urgency to gain possession of the Russian oil fields in the Caucasus mountains, together with Ukrainian grain and Donets coal, were thus prime elements in the German decision to invade the Soviet Union in June 1941.
"

This appears to be based on: https://www.quora.com/History-How-cruci ... orld-War-2

Cheers,

Sid.

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Gorque
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Gorque » 21 Apr 2016 14:31

Hi Sid:

I did some searching through a few of my books and came across a nice diagram entitled "Prospective Monthly Coverage in Annual Averages" on page 505 in DRZW vol. V/I. I'm incapable, (more likely incompetent) to reproduce the diagram here but I can relate some figures.

Consumption in September '39 in thousand of tonnes/mo was as follows:

Heating Oil, 25 Industry and 80 Wehrmacht. The estimated monthly requirement for '39-'40 was 145 with sources listed as Russia, Rumania, reserves and domestic production totaling 98.

Diesel Fuel: 158 Industry and 33 Wehrmacht. The estimated monthly requirement for '39-'40 was 160 with sources totaling 153.

Aviation Fuel: 54 Wehrmacht. The estimated monthly requirement for '39-'40 was 100 with sources totaling 97.

Motor Fuel: 110 Industry and 107 Wehrmacht. The estimated monthly requirement for '39-'40 was 170 with sources totaling 188.

That would be 293 Industry and 274 Wehrmacht in September '39. Monthly requirement for '39-'40 was estimated to be 575 with sources totaling 536.

The graph lists increasing amount of the aforementioned fuels in increasing amounts for '40-'41 and '41-'42 that make it appear that Germany would be self-sufficient in these last two years, however the graph doesn't mention projected consumption amounts and for the final year it lists Russia as being a major component (15%) for its oil source.

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Gorque
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Gorque » 21 Apr 2016 14:43

ljadw wrote:While Europe was an oil importation region before the war , it is also so that before the war (and even after the war till the sixties) the importance of oil in Europe (the SU not included) was minor, very minor .
In 2 countries only did oil have a big importance in the energy mix : number one was the SU ,followed by the US .
Four wheeled motorized transport in France and England was not only greater on a per capita basis than in Germany but also in total vehicles as well. The only item where Germany had the advantage in was motorcycles.

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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 21 Apr 2016 14:48

Sid Guttridge wrote:Hi ljadw,

I found this on another thread here:

"In 1938, of the total consumption of 44 million barrels, imports from overseas accounted for 28 million barrels or roughly 60 percent of the total supply. An additional 3.8 million barrels were imported overland from European sources (2.8 million barrels came from Romania alone), and another 3.8 million barrels were derived from domestic oil production. The remainder of the total, 9 million barrels, were produced synthetically. Although the total overseas imports were even higher in 1939 before the onset of the blockade in September (33 million barrels), this high proportion of overseas imports only indicated how precarious the fuel situation would become should Germany be cut off from them.

At the outbreak of the war, Germany’s stockpiles of fuel consisted of a total of 15 million barrels. The campaigns in Norway, Holland, Belgium, and France added another 5 million barrels in booty, and imports from the Soviet Union accounted for 4 million barrels in 1940 and 1.6 million barrels in the first half of 1941. Yet a High Command study in May of 1941 noted that with monthly military requirements for 7.25 million barrels and imports and home production of only 5.35 million barrels, German stocks would be exhausted by August 1941. The 26 percent shortfall could only be made up with petroleum from Russia. The need to provide the lacking 1.9 million barrels per month and the urgency to gain possession of the Russian oil fields in the Caucasus mountains, together with Ukrainian grain and Donets coal, were thus prime elements in the German decision to invade the Soviet Union in June 1941.
"

This appears to be based on: https://www.quora.com/History-How-cruci ... orld-War-2

Cheers,

Sid.
I know this one, but the study from may 1941 is obviously wrong :the German stocks were not exhausted in august 1941, although since 22 june there were no longer deliveries from the SU .

What also was wrong was the need for the Ukrainian grain(only small amounts of grain arrived in Germany and notwithstanding this there was no famine in the Reich) neither was there any need for Donets coal ( almost no Donets coal arrived in Germany ,while Germant had to transport a lot of coal to the east)

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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by ljadw » 21 Apr 2016 15:00

Gorque wrote:
ljadw wrote:While Europe was an oil importation region before the war , it is also so that before the war (and even after the war till the sixties) the importance of oil in Europe (the SU not included) was minor, very minor .
In 2 countries only did oil have a big importance in the energy mix : number one was the SU ,followed by the US .
Four wheeled motorized transport in France and England was not only greater on a per capita basis than in Germany but also in total vehicles as well. The only item where Germany had the advantage in was motorcycles.

I know but the fact remains that before the war and even till twenty years after the war, the importance of oil in the European energy consumption (energy mix) was very low :

in millions of tons of hard coal

1938:

Coal and lignite : 532 = 90 %

Hydroelectric : 17 = 3 %

Liquid petroleum fossils : 41 = 7 %

1949 /1950

Coal : 466 = 82 %

Hydro : 28 5 %

Petroleum : 71 = 13 %


Heating, electricity, railways, factories : they all needed coal, not oil .

And in 2000 the US figures were :

coal : 32 %

Gas : 28 %

Oil : 17 %

1995 : EU :energy production : oil 18 % / Coal :29 %

:energy consumption : oil 39 % / coal 22 %

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Gorque
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Re: you will never convince me that Germany could not have won this war

Post by Gorque » 21 Apr 2016 18:20

41 million tons of coal equals about 28.7 million tons of oil. 28,700,000/12 = 2,392,000 tons of oil/month. That's not a small number to have to supply. Romania was able to produce about 27,000,000 barrels/annum or about 329,000 tons/month (~7 bbls/ton). In '38 Germany was producing about 13,000,000 bbls/annum or about 158,400 tons/month. That leaves a monthly shortage of ~1,900,00 tons/month!

Granted that not all of Europe can be included in the 41 million tons, e.g: Sweden, Switzerland, Spain or that Germany and Romania were the only producers of oil or that this level of consumption would be maintained during wartime, however despite the aforementioned, that would still be a large amount of oil to produce within the German Großraum if one expects the occupied and allied nations to produce goods for the war effort.

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