Oil war against CCCP

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
Hanny
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by Hanny » 18 Feb 2019 08:27

ljadw wrote:
17 Feb 2019 12:31
As I expected : you have no counter arguments .
After the Germans failed to capture the Caucasus, they had more oil than before . This proves that the oil of the Caucasus would not help them .
The oil situation of Germany was better after the failure of Blau than before the start of Blau .
I gave them ( which includes that Germany had less oil after taking Maikop, Grozny not more, was consuming more and national stocks were falling faster) you went into denial phase, and maintain your revisionist position.
Last edited by Hanny on 18 Feb 2019 21:08, edited 1 time in total.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

ljadw
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by ljadw » 18 Feb 2019 10:08

Peter89 wrote:
18 Feb 2019 07:47
Ljdaw, you can't really say that an American major can't do good research on the topic of the Eastern front / Europe. It's like saying: "A nigger can't be a north pole researcher, it's way too hot down there.". Our sociocultural and ethnic background does have effects on our opinions (like in your case), but it does not exclude us from certain areas of research.

One cannot dismiss all Western authors based on their few false statements in a historian's lifetime. It's not a personal offense towards postsoviet nationals if Beevor states that between eight and eighty every women was raped by the Soviets. I know locations for sure where they were. And I bet Beevor was talking about a limited area as well.

Regarding the oil situation: you can't seriously claim that Germany had oil in abudant supplies. The final outcome of the war was not effected by it, but it was also not effected by many other shortages.
There is no proved relation between the German oil production/consumption and its military situation .
All we know is that
a the more oil was available ,the worse the military situation became
b the more oil was available, more oil was not consumed : 1940 : 1 million ton, 1941 1,18 million ton,1942 2,5 million , 1943 3,5 million . Reason : probably : transpoort problems, or maybe less oil was needed ,that,s why the Caucasus oil was a non sequitur: it could not be transported and there is no proof that it would improve Germany's military situation, there is also no proof that it was needed .
More oil does not mean that more trucks would drive longer,the same for more tanks, that more U Boats would operate longer : a U boat without torpedos would return even if it had still a lot of fuel .

ljadw
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by ljadw » 18 Feb 2019 10:11

About the rapes : there were more than 10 million women living in the German territories invaded and occupied by the Soviets ,thus saying that all womem between 8 and 80 were raped is nonsense .

ljadw
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by ljadw » 18 Feb 2019 10:26

About the US major : he was an airforce officer !! Thus ...
The sources he used ,mostly US sources and obsolete/unreliable German sources ,are no proving that he is a serious author .
What would you think of an American author,writing about post war Hungary between 1945 and 1970, using only American sources and a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?
What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?
In the past, Qvist,who was a moderator on this forum, said : if you want to know something about the German side, use German sources, about the Soviet side : use Soviet sources .
This means : do not use US sources for operation Barbarossa . Something the major did .The major knew the importance of oil for the USAF in the 80s, thus, he thought that this influence was identical in WWII for a land war in Eastern Europe . But he is wrong,totally wrong .

ljadw
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by ljadw » 18 Feb 2019 13:00

Peter89 wrote:
18 Feb 2019 07:47
Ljdaw, you can't really say that an American major can't do good research on the topic of the Eastern front / Europe. It's like saying: "A nigger can't be a north pole researcher, it's way too hot down there.". Our sociocultural and ethnic background does have effects on our opinions (like in your case), but it does not exclude us from certain areas of research.

One cannot dismiss all Western authors based on their few false statements in a historian's lifetime. It's not a personal offense towards postsoviet nationals if Beevor states that between eight and eighty every women was raped by the Soviets. I know locations for sure where they were. And I bet Beevor was talking about a limited area as well.

Regarding the oil situation: you can't seriously claim that Germany had oil in abudant supplies. The final outcome of the war was not effected by it, but it was also not effected by many other shortages.
If the final outcome of the war was not effected by oil shortage, how can one talk about an oil crisis ?
To have an oil crisis, one must prove that there were military operations who were prevented,blocked hindered by a shortage of oil .
And a shortage of oil is not the same as a transport problem :Typhoon could start only at the end of September because the needed supplies, although available somewhere in Germany, could not be transported earlier ,not because these supplies did not exist .If there was a shortage of oiul, there would be no Typhoon .
After the war, the German generals invented a lot of excuses for their defeat:the weather, Hitler, oil shortage, otherwise they had to admit that they were defeated by the Soviets, and this would mean that they could not set themselves up as the experts who almost defeated the Soviets and who were entitled to have all the $ billions for rearmament and to have the top functions in Nato .
They were losers ,but tried to hide this . Successfully because of the Cold War .

Peter89
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Location: Hungary

Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by Peter89 » 18 Feb 2019 18:50

ljadw wrote:
18 Feb 2019 10:11
About the rapes : there were more than 10 million women living in the German territories invaded and occupied by the Soviets ,thus saying that all womem between 8 and 80 were raped is nonsense .
It's not quite an argument.
There were millions of Soviet soldiers as well. It's not a theoretical impossibility to rape them all.

Besides, I don't think they were all raped. I know many women whom were not raped. Entire regions - where the front moved fast and bloodlessly - were spared of widespread rapes. Also, entire regions were raped from eight to eighty.

Peter89
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by Peter89 » 18 Feb 2019 19:12

ljadw wrote:
18 Feb 2019 10:26
About the US major : he was an airforce officer !! Thus ...
The sources he used ,mostly US sources and obsolete/unreliable German sources ,are no proving that he is a serious author .
What would you think of an American author,writing about post war Hungary between 1945 and 1970, using only American sources and a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?
What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?
In the past, Qvist,who was a moderator on this forum, said : if you want to know something about the German side, use German sources, about the Soviet side : use Soviet sources .
This means : do not use US sources for operation Barbarossa . Something the major did .The major knew the importance of oil for the USAF in the 80s, thus, he thought that this influence was identical in WWII for a land war in Eastern Europe . But he is wrong,totally wrong .
You know I have so much more respect towards foreign intelligentsia than towards a common Hungarian. Let alone a common Hungarian historian. Most of them are biased to the bone, and they refuse to accept external vision of the Hungarian role in the XX. century.

I can name a few exceptions, most notably Krisztián Ungváry, his Battle for Budapest book is of excellent quality.

"a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?" - What are you talking about? They were the representatives of the free Hungary in those decades. What would I think of them? One of the most prominent Hungarian intellectual, Péter Róna, currently a fellow at Oxford (and a graduate from Pennsylvania and Oxford) was an emigrant from 1956-1989, and he has a better grasp of what was happening here without being here or reading in Hungarian for decades. An outsider angle with proper intelligence can only contribute to your vision of an era.

"What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?"

I hope he / she would evaluate the quality of the work based on the actual quality of the work and not on the author's nationality. In the US they know a lot about how to judge quality work regardless of the producer.

It's not fair that you quote Qvist, and he's not here to defend himself. I started to read this forum many years ago when he was still active, and I remember he had a wide range of knowledge about sources, especially regarding casualties.

Peter89
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Posts: 221
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Hungary

Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by Peter89 » 18 Feb 2019 19:44

ljadw wrote:
18 Feb 2019 13:00
Peter89 wrote:
18 Feb 2019 07:47
Ljdaw, you can't really say that an American major can't do good research on the topic of the Eastern front / Europe. It's like saying: "A nigger can't be a north pole researcher, it's way too hot down there.". Our sociocultural and ethnic background does have effects on our opinions (like in your case), but it does not exclude us from certain areas of research.

One cannot dismiss all Western authors based on their few false statements in a historian's lifetime. It's not a personal offense towards postsoviet nationals if Beevor states that between eight and eighty every women was raped by the Soviets. I know locations for sure where they were. And I bet Beevor was talking about a limited area as well.

Regarding the oil situation: you can't seriously claim that Germany had oil in abudant supplies. The final outcome of the war was not effected by it, but it was also not effected by many other shortages.
If the final outcome of the war was not effected by oil shortage, how can one talk about an oil crisis ?
To have an oil crisis, one must prove that there were military operations who were prevented,blocked hindered by a shortage of oil .
And a shortage of oil is not the same as a transport problem :Typhoon could start only at the end of September because the needed supplies, although available somewhere in Germany, could not be transported earlier ,not because these supplies did not exist .If there was a shortage of oiul, there would be no Typhoon .
After the war, the German generals invented a lot of excuses for their defeat:the weather, Hitler, oil shortage, otherwise they had to admit that they were defeated by the Soviets, and this would mean that they could not set themselves up as the experts who almost defeated the Soviets and who were entitled to have all the $ billions for rearmament and to have the top functions in Nato .
They were losers ,but tried to hide this . Successfully because of the Cold War .
The general situation of the Axis was deteriorating from 1942. Did the oil situation worsened the Axis' military possibilities? Yes. Did it change the course of war? No. Had the Axis more oil, could it change the course of war? No. Had the Axis cut the oil supply from the Caucasus and the Persian Corridor (I mean, not for months in 1942, but for years) could it hurt the USSR? Yes. Could it change the course of war? No.

Regarding the generals: I'm not jesk to use postwar German diaries as primary sources of an alternate history. Yes, a lot of excuses were made up, most prominently that "they knew nothing" of the system they worked for. WTF. Nuremberg laws, the T4 programme and the Comissar Order was in full effect to name a few.
Ofc nobody writes a memoir to say "I'm sorry I screwd". I can only name a single exception and that is also somewhat a debate with his former self, and went as far as "Did I really screw?".

Example given, we wouldn't be aware of Zhukov's huge failure at the Battles of Rhzev without David Glantz.

If German military commanders were really that bad, how come that NATO and the West utterly beated the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet bloc both in diplomatic and military fields - even if not in open conflict? Also, how come that Werner von Braun, a top Nazi scientist, led the NASA and beated the USSR in the Man on the Moon project? The Axis war machine had some pretty intelligent and capable guys, you must give them that.

They knew how to fight against the Soviets as they scored many major victories against them, and had they have the support of the West, they would certainly crush the USSR, as the USSR crushed them with the support of the West. In the end, the Soviet-ran Eastern bloc suffered a complete defeat in every way (in 1945-1965 it was all about military and in 1965-1985 it was about economics), and now these areas are all in a recovery state, and still don't stand a chance.

ljadw
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by ljadw » 18 Feb 2019 21:02

Peter89 wrote:
18 Feb 2019 19:12
ljadw wrote:
18 Feb 2019 10:26
About the US major : he was an airforce officer !! Thus ...
The sources he used ,mostly US sources and obsolete/unreliable German sources ,are no proving that he is a serious author .
What would you think of an American author,writing about post war Hungary between 1945 and 1970, using only American sources and a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?
What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?
In the past, Qvist,who was a moderator on this forum, said : if you want to know something about the German side, use German sources, about the Soviet side : use Soviet sources .
This means : do not use US sources for operation Barbarossa . Something the major did .The major knew the importance of oil for the USAF in the 80s, thus, he thought that this influence was identical in WWII for a land war in Eastern Europe . But he is wrong,totally wrong .
You know I have so much more respect towards foreign intelligentsia than towards a common Hungarian. Let alone a common Hungarian historian. Most of them are biased to the bone, and they refuse to accept external vision of the Hungarian role in the XX. century.

I can name a few exceptions, most notably Krisztián Ungváry, his Battle for Budapest book is of excellent quality.

"a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?" - What are you talking about? They were the representatives of the free Hungary in those decades. What would I think of them? One of the most prominent Hungarian intellectual, Péter Róna, currently a fellow at Oxford (and a graduate from Pennsylvania and Oxford) was an emigrant from 1956-1989, and he has a better grasp of what was happening here without being here or reading in Hungarian for decades. An outsider angle with proper intelligence can only contribute to your vision of an era.

"What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?"

I hope he / she would evaluate the quality of the work based on the actual quality of the work and not on the author's nationality. In the US they know a lot about how to judge quality work regardless of the producer.

It's not fair that you quote Qvist, and he's not here to defend himself. I started to read this forum many years ago when he was still active, and I remember he had a wide range of knowledge about sources, especially regarding casualties.
How could a Hungarian historian write about the Civil War and the Reconstruction, if he did not use American sources, and relkiable American sources ?
About emigrés: they are people who leave a country and when they return, this country has that changed that it has become a foreign country for them . A Hungarian who left Hungary in 1945 and returned in 1990,would not recognize his country .Because it changed,but for the emigré it is still the country he remembered : that of 1945 . Thus, their opinions, etc are not reliable .
I know 2 people (man and woman ) who left their region (the Passendale region ) to the US in 1955 and when they returned for a
visite 30 years later, they could not believe their eyes : people in their village had cars, colour TV ,people were going to restaurants,there was even a department store . They forgot that time did not stand still .
In 1815, a British politician said about the French royalist emigrés who returned to France : ils n'ont rien oublié et ils n'ont rien appris . They have forgotten nothing and have learned nothing .
It is the same for the Hungarian émigrés : they had not forgotten Rakosi and his AVH,but they did not know of Kadar .That's why émigrés are not reliable people .

ljadw
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Posts: 9690
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by ljadw » 18 Feb 2019 21:03

Hanny wrote:
18 Feb 2019 08:27
ljadw wrote:
17 Feb 2019 12:31
As I expected : you have no counter arguments .
After the Germans failed to capture the Caucasus, they had more oil than before . This proves that the oil of the Caucasus would not help them .
The oil situation of Germany was better after the failure of Blau than before the start of Blau .
I gave them ( which includes that Germany had less oil after taking Baku not more, was consuming more and national stocks were falling faster) you went into denial phase, and maintain your revisionist position.
As Baku never was captured .... :P

Hanny
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Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by Hanny » 18 Feb 2019 21:09

Your right, corrected to Maikop, Grozny.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Peter89
Member
Posts: 221
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Hungary

Re: Oil war against CCCP

Post by Peter89 » 19 Feb 2019 07:57

ljadw wrote:
18 Feb 2019 21:02
Peter89 wrote:
18 Feb 2019 19:12
ljadw wrote:
18 Feb 2019 10:26
About the US major : he was an airforce officer !! Thus ...
The sources he used ,mostly US sources and obsolete/unreliable German sources ,are no proving that he is a serious author .
What would you think of an American author,writing about post war Hungary between 1945 and 1970, using only American sources and a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?
What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?
In the past, Qvist,who was a moderator on this forum, said : if you want to know something about the German side, use German sources, about the Soviet side : use Soviet sources .
This means : do not use US sources for operation Barbarossa . Something the major did .The major knew the importance of oil for the USAF in the 80s, thus, he thought that this influence was identical in WWII for a land war in Eastern Europe . But he is wrong,totally wrong .
You know I have so much more respect towards foreign intelligentsia than towards a common Hungarian. Let alone a common Hungarian historian. Most of them are biased to the bone, and they refuse to accept external vision of the Hungarian role in the XX. century.

I can name a few exceptions, most notably Krisztián Ungváry, his Battle for Budapest book is of excellent quality.

"a few suspect Hungarian ones = books by Hungarian emigrés ?" - What are you talking about? They were the representatives of the free Hungary in those decades. What would I think of them? One of the most prominent Hungarian intellectual, Péter Róna, currently a fellow at Oxford (and a graduate from Pennsylvania and Oxford) was an emigrant from 1956-1989, and he has a better grasp of what was happening here without being here or reading in Hungarian for decades. An outsider angle with proper intelligence can only contribute to your vision of an era.

"What would think a citizen of South Carolina about a Hungarian historian writing about the Civil War and the reconstruction,without using American sources ?"

I hope he / she would evaluate the quality of the work based on the actual quality of the work and not on the author's nationality. In the US they know a lot about how to judge quality work regardless of the producer.

It's not fair that you quote Qvist, and he's not here to defend himself. I started to read this forum many years ago when he was still active, and I remember he had a wide range of knowledge about sources, especially regarding casualties.
How could a Hungarian historian write about the Civil War and the Reconstruction, if he did not use American sources, and relkiable American sources ?
About emigrés: they are people who leave a country and when they return, this country has that changed that it has become a foreign country for them . A Hungarian who left Hungary in 1945 and returned in 1990,would not recognize his country .Because it changed,but for the emigré it is still the country he remembered : that of 1945 . Thus, their opinions, etc are not reliable .
I know 2 people (man and woman ) who left their region (the Passendale region ) to the US in 1955 and when they returned for a
visite 30 years later, they could not believe their eyes : people in their village had cars, colour TV ,people were going to restaurants,there was even a department store . They forgot that time did not stand still .
In 1815, a British politician said about the French royalist emigrés who returned to France : ils n'ont rien oublié et ils n'ont rien appris . They have forgotten nothing and have learned nothing .
It is the same for the Hungarian émigrés : they had not forgotten Rakosi and his AVH,but they did not know of Kadar .That's why émigrés are not reliable people .
An ignorant emigré might not know of the things happened in his / her original country. But a well-informed emigré knows both the inside and outside perspective. Actually, (s)he might know more than a person who only lived and read in one country and one language. It is especially true for small nations such as Hungary, but I think not even a native English speaker must learn new languages.

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