The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by Aida1 » 11 Feb 2020 20:22

ljadw wrote:
11 Feb 2020 19:28
Aida1 wrote:
11 Feb 2020 13:42
ljadw wrote:
11 Feb 2020 13:06
It did ot finnish in October and it did not finish because of the weather .
It had already failed in July when Hitler hoped that Japan would save him .
Marcks neither Lossberg decided the operational part of Barbarossa .Brauchitz,Halder, Hitler and the Soviets did it .
Totally besides the question. There were 4 months to do the job and Halder knew that too. Marcks' study was made for him after all. :roll: Contrary to what you imply, german military thinking was flexible. Halder certainly did not believe the operation had failed in july because it did not. It going very quickly was only one possible variable as outlined by Marcks.
The operation HAD failed in July .And, flexibility is only useful , if there are alternatives . Such alternatives did not exist . The Red Army could not be defeated decisively east of the DD line . Typhoon is a proof .
It had not as it need not succeed then. You misrepresent things intentionally. Your opinion about Typhoon can only be considered as extremely strange.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 12029
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by ljadw » 12 Feb 2020 14:08

My opinion is the opinion of Hitler, Brauchitz, Halder, and other such people .The success of Typhoon depended on the Soviets . On the Soviets only . It was the same for Barbarossa and Typhoon had only 1% chance to succeed of Babarossa .The Germans were unable to defeat the Soviets in a battle on the border with 150 divisions. What would be their chance to defeat the Soviets 4 months later and 1000 km farther,with less than the half of 150 divisions ?

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by Aida1 » 12 Feb 2020 16:17

ljadw wrote:
12 Feb 2020 14:08
My opinion is the opinion of Hitler, Brauchitz, Halder, and other such people .The success of Typhoon depended on the Soviets . On the Soviets only . It was the same for Barbarossa and Typhoon had only 1% chance to succeed of Babarossa .The Germans were unable to defeat the Soviets in a battle on the border with 150 divisions. What would be their chance to defeat the Soviets 4 months later and 1000 km farther,with less than the half of 150 divisions ?
A very short very incorrect statement not based on any source at all except your own personal opnion. :lol:

User avatar
BDV
Financial supporter
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009 16:11

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by BDV » 12 Feb 2020 17:17

Ружичасти Слон wrote: BDV:
So Deus Ex Machina would show up because:
a) It always did before
b) Otherwise war was lost anyways


Germany army never have Deus ex machina.
We can go one by one, over each case.
Germany invade Czekoslovakia and win because stronger army and nobody to help Czekoslovakia. Not need deus ex masina.
The 1938 Munich Agreement.

Germany invade Poland and win because stronger army and nobody to help Poland. Only country to help Poland decide to be ally with Nazis. Not need deus ex masina.
Yes, the Molotov Ribentropp pact is the Deus ex Machina; without it nothing is possible in Poland.

Germany invade Denmark and Norway and win because stronger army and nobody strong enough to stop. Not need deus ex masina.
The fact that German invasion force was not detected until Trondheim and the British decision to retreat from Narvik.

Germany invade Belgia Luxemburg Niederlands and win because stronger army and nobody strong enough to stop. Not need deus ex masina.
There was NO plan for cooperation and NO preparation for cooperation between France/Britain and Belgium against German attack, and to top it, France/Britain still try to help Belgium without previous preparation, leading to 1st French Army and BEF never establishing a defensive position against the German attack. Dunkirk and Lille are example of what BEF/French could do against Germans on defensive.

Germany invade France and win because stronger army and nobody strong enough to stop. Not need deus ex masina. France surrender after army beated.
The Deus ex Machina is when France decide not to continue battle from the colonies. North Africa falls immediately to Maritime/Royal Navy action.

Same for Greece and Jugoslavija.
Where is deus ex masina?
Jugoslavia is PERFECT example of what Deus ex Machina could be thought to happen in multinational Sovjetunion. Croatian revolt against Serbians, at time when German invade (just wrong date by 50-70 year, see Chechenyia, Donbass :D ).

Some peoples say Germany always and only worried about Amerika. All decisions about invading Soviet Union and other countrys because of Amerika. But Amerika only interested after Germany start wars.
Directive 21 talks England THREE times while mentioning Soviet Russia ONCE. FDR POTUS already gave Fuehrer Adolf ULTIMATUM on April 1939.

Germany army was good and always win against not so good armys. But why to invade Soviet Union ally with mad plan? How to think they win if destroy 2 millions mens or 4 millions mens in stage 1? How to think they win if not pause to make logistics good for stage 2? How to think to win if never consider Red Army mobilization?

Completeley madnesses.
Not disagreeing on madness part. But there is an interest in understanding the METHOD to the madness.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

ljadw
Member
Posts: 12029
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by ljadw » 12 Feb 2020 18:12

Germany did ot invade CZ in 1938,but in 1939 , and as the Czechs did not fight in 1939, Britain and France also did not fight in 1939 .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 12029
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by ljadw » 12 Feb 2020 18:14

I disagree about the claim that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was a DEus ex Machina : the pact did not cause the German attack, the German attack caused the Pact .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 12029
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by ljadw » 12 Feb 2020 18:18

Aida1 wrote:
12 Feb 2020 16:17
ljadw wrote:
12 Feb 2020 14:08
My opinion is the opinion of Hitler, Brauchitz, Halder, and other such people .The success of Typhoon depended on the Soviets . On the Soviets only . It was the same for Barbarossa and Typhoon had only 1% chance to succeed of Babarossa .The Germans were unable to defeat the Soviets in a battle on the border with 150 divisions. What would be their chance to defeat the Soviets 4 months later and 1000 km farther,with less than the half of 150 divisions ?
A very short very incorrect statement not based on any source at all except your own personal opnion. :lol:
:roll: It is obvious that if the Germans failed in July with 150 divisions, they would fail in october with 60 divisions . Otherwise they would have attacked in June with 60 divisions .
Halder and Hitler said clearly that victory east of the DD line was impossible .

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by Aida1 » 12 Feb 2020 18:27

ljadw wrote:
12 Feb 2020 18:18
Aida1 wrote:
12 Feb 2020 16:17
ljadw wrote:
12 Feb 2020 14:08
My opinion is the opinion of Hitler, Brauchitz, Halder, and other such people .The success of Typhoon depended on the Soviets . On the Soviets only . It was the same for Barbarossa and Typhoon had only 1% chance to succeed of Babarossa .The Germans were unable to defeat the Soviets in a battle on the border with 150 divisions. What would be their chance to defeat the Soviets 4 months later and 1000 km farther,with less than the half of 150 divisions ?
A very short very incorrect statement not based on any source at all except your own personal opnion. :lol:
:roll: It is obvious that if the Germans failed in July with 150 divisions, they would fail in october with 60 divisions . Otherwise they would have attacked in June with 60 divisions .
Halder and Hitler said clearly that victory east of the DD line was impossible .
This is again so very simplistic as always. And untrue. No sources given either as always.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 12029
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by ljadw » 12 Feb 2020 19:27

The sources for what Halder and Hitler,and also Brauchitz,said have been given, several times .

User avatar
Aida1
Member
Posts: 1286
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 08:46
Location: Brussels

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by Aida1 » 12 Feb 2020 21:29

ljadw wrote:
12 Feb 2020 19:27
The sources for what Halder and Hitler,and also Brauchitz,said have been given, several times .
I could rebut that easily . A bit of research will be enough.

User avatar
AbollonPolweder
Member
Posts: 247
Joined: 09 Jan 2017 20:54
Location: Russia

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by AbollonPolweder » 13 Feb 2020 11:49

BDV wrote:
12 Feb 2020 17:17
...
Yes, the Molotov Ribentropp pact is the Deus ex Machina; without it nothing is possible in Poland.
...
If you believe that man is the result of God's acts, then you are right. But what about atheists? What kind of miracle should they see in the fact that two socialists, two dictators and aggressors agreed on a joint attack on a weak neighbor? It would be a miracle if they had not agreed! I would believe in the existence of God if Ribbentrop and Molotov had not signed the pact on the division of Poland. That would be real miracle of "Deus". :o
https://sites.google.com/site/krieg1941undnarod/
Better to lose with a clever than with a fool to find

User avatar
BDV
Financial supporter
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009 16:11

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by BDV » 13 Feb 2020 15:56

AbollonPolweder wrote:If you believe that man is the result of God's acts, then you are right. But what about atheists? What kind of miracle should they see in the fact that two socialists, two dictators and aggressors agreed on a joint attack on a weak neighbor? It would be a miracle if they had not agreed! I would believe in the existence of God if Ribbentrop and Molotov had not signed the pact on the division of Poland. That would be real miracle of "Deus". :o
There is no need to renounce atheismus.

"Deux ex Machina" is an unexpected power or event saving a seemingly hopeless situation. German expecting that their offensive will create a situation/development that will deliver victory is the most reasonable explanation to the decisions made before and during Barbarossa; the first place where their attempt failed so spectacularly.

To make a chess analogy, Soviet chess master Mikhail Tal was know for his attaque a outrance style, where his intent was not perfection of one's own position but creating enough threats and problems that the opponent was almost bound to blunder at some point. But, like Germans ultimately running into RKKA and Zhukov, Tal also ran into Petrosian, a master of defense, who never lost to Tal's aggression.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

User avatar
AbollonPolweder
Member
Posts: 247
Joined: 09 Jan 2017 20:54
Location: Russia

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by AbollonPolweder » 14 Feb 2020 13:45

BDV wrote:
12 Feb 2020 17:17
...
Yes, the Molotov Ribentropp pact is the Deus ex Machina; without it nothing is possible in Poland.
...
That is, the Germans from the spring of 1941 actively collaborated with the Russians in the "creation" of machina (Pact M-R), and at the end of August they were very surprised at the appearance of this machina, this "unexpected miracle" as you mean :) . So?
https://sites.google.com/site/krieg1941undnarod/
Better to lose with a clever than with a fool to find

User avatar
BDV
Financial supporter
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009 16:11

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by BDV » 14 Feb 2020 18:13

AbollonPolweder wrote: That is, the Germans from the spring of 1941 actively collaborated with the Russians in the "creation" of machina (Pact M-R), and at the end of August they were very surprised at the appearance of this machina, this "unexpected miracle" as you mean :)
Of course you mean 1939. Also, it is not within the power of Adolf to make Mr. Molotoff's signature appear on the papers in question.

As such, Sovjet Russia acquiescence to the Pact was completely outside of their control. That Molotoff-vRibentropp is not a fait accompli at the time Germany starts its mobilization against Poland was shown in 1940 Molotoff visit to Berlin. Sovjets COULD change their mind, that is.

The Deus ex Machina of vRibbentropp-Molotoff cannot happen without the negotiation; that is clear. But likewise the Deus ex Machina of Sovjet Collapse cannot happen without Barbarossa.

(Is there agreement that neither Barbarossa plan, nor Barbarossa execution could be rationally expected to bring on EndSieg?)

We are reduced to ljadw logic; once Germans chose their course of action everything depended on Sovjets, nothing on Germans.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

ljadw
Member
Posts: 12029
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: The Logistics of Barbarossa (or lack of it)

Post by ljadw » 14 Feb 2020 21:45

That the Barbarossa plan/execution could not bring on Endsieg,is something that we know with hindsight: in August 1945 the German cities would be nuked .But,it is irrelevant,as Germany was in a desperate situation ,and needed a desperate solution .Rationality was a luxury Germany could not afford .
1 Germany's situation was desperate
2 The only chance ( very small chance ) was to defeat the SU .
3 The defeat of the SU could only be caused by the collaps of the regime.
4 The collaps of the regime could only happen if the Red army was defeated west of the DD line
5 The defeat of the Red Army west of the DD line depended on the willingness of Stalin to send the Red Army west of the DD line
The German leadership agreed with these points and started the war with the USSR with the belief that the Soviet regime would collaps in the summer
because it had to collaps in the summer ,as,if the war lasted east of the DD line the Soviet regime would not collaps, the Red Army would continue the war and Germany would lose .
The SU was potentially stronger than Germany , thus time was essential .

Return to “German Strategy & General German Military Discussion”