The State of the Ostheer - May 1942

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Aida1
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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#211

Post by Aida1 » 04 Feb 2020, 22:04

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 20:29
Max Payload wrote:Even if correct, that scenario seems to have dismissed the consequences to German iron ore supplies of the loss of Narvik over the winter of 1941/2 and to have discounted the possibility of a British landing at Kristiansand with a subsequent north-easterly advance along the coastal route to the Oslofjord that could have denied Germany sea access to southern Norway. All of which must have contributed to OKW’s ‘perverse’ decision to garrison the country with seven divisions.
You're ignoring the fact that I've repeatedly suggested reinforcing Norway with more divisions from France to replace assets shifted to Barbarossa. There is not much room for maneuver within Norway; it's mostly a matter of holding strategic points. The bondstandige divisions concentrated in France are good for that task.

Re a British landing at Kristiansund with northeast advance, that was theoretically possible whether the OTL force is there or an equivalent amount of bodenstandige forces hold the area.
I think you're right that Narvik had to be held. But again, that's why I'd add more bodenstandige forces everywhere in Norway.

My point is to materially weaken defenses in areas (France, Balkans) where a British descent poses no immediate strategic danger.
You are again conveniently ignoring that the high command and Hitler did have to take into account possible actions by Brittain against not only Norway but also Spain and Portugal or the French coast. So OB West had to be prepared to use forces against a british landing in Spain and Portugal(operation Isabella ) besides holding the French coast and you cannot just take away divisions there at will . There were two fronts and the OB West could not be left with almost nothing as you would do.

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#212

Post by Georg_S » 04 Feb 2020, 22:14

Hello

Big thanks for this, I apologize for it sounding brusque. You have obviously shown your source, if others have problems with this they can refer their anger to the author instead.

If some still want to discuss the topic then you will then have to show why Themarksplan and the author of the book are wrong, with sources!

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#213

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 04 Feb 2020, 22:31

Georg_S wrote:If some still want to discuss the topic then you will then have to show why Themarksplan and the author of the book are wrong, with sources!
Thank you. We all know it is difficult to track the actual truth in a long thread like this and appreciate your responsiveness and even-handedness.
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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#214

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 04 Feb 2020, 22:35

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 21:54
More excerpts from Hunger and War, giving some narrative to workers' food situation:
...
People know countries make food rationing in war times. People know food rationing in Soviet Union was very strict. It is common sense to understand workers in heavy jobs are most risky for lack of calories.

In these posts you show evidence that factory bosses and authorities were trying to do something about problem...sending workers to get food from woods, some changed to cultivating food etc.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 21:54
Once again, as my upthread quote from Stephen Kotkin understands, the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse and the food situation was extremely perilous. The Soviet government was able to hide these facts for decades but historians are starting to document and understand the truth.
Yes. I understand you want to say Soviet economy was close to collapse because you want to say Germany was close to winning. That is your point.

But how close was it to collapse?

You think it was very very close and so you wrote
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
02 Feb 2020, 07:00
That means the very workers supplying the war were literally being worked to death!
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
02 Feb 2020, 19:41

Yeah it's simply astounding. Imagine working 12hrs/day in arguably the country's most important factory (70% of T-34 production in Nizhny Tagil Tractor IIRC) and being fed so poorly that young male coworkers are literally dying. And still showing up day after day until you cannot stand - literally - anymore.
What is your evidence of workers being worked to death?
What is your evidence of workers dieing at Nizhny Tagil Tractor factory?

You keep writing word literally like you think it was very frequent and normal.

If it is normal and very frequent and the numbers of people dieing are very very high, then perhaps this is one indicator of how close economy was to collapse.

But where is your evidence? The charts in your link are all % numbers. % of what?

Also, how do the datas in the charts relate to your claim of the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse?

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#215

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 04 Feb 2020, 22:46

Georg_S wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:14
Hello

Big thanks for this, I apologize for it sounding brusque. You have obviously shown your source, if others have problems with this they can refer their anger to the author instead.

If some still want to discuss the topic then you will then have to show why Themarksplan and the author of the book are wrong, with sources!

best regards
Georg
Hello

Why are you apologize?

Themarksplan gives evidence that food rationning in Soviet Union was a big problem and peoples were suffering.

Themarksplan gives evidence bosses were trying to make things better.

Themarksplan does not give evidence for his claim that peope were literally being worked to death! .

Themarksplan does not give evidence for his claim Imagine working 12hrs/day in arguably the country's most important factory (70% of T-34 production in Nizhny Tagil Tractor IIRC) and being fed so poorly that young male coworkers are literally dying.

The evidence themarksplan gives does not prove his claim that the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse.

Giving evidence for some thing is not the same as evidencing some very specific claims.
Last edited by Ружичасти Слон on 04 Feb 2020, 22:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#216

Post by Georg_S » 04 Feb 2020, 22:56

Ружичасти Слон wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:46
Georg_S wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:14
Hello

Big thanks for this, I apologize for it sounding brusque. You have obviously shown your source, if others have problems with this they can refer their anger to the author instead.

If some still want to discuss the topic then you will then have to show why Themarksplan and the author of the book are wrong, with sources!

best regards
Georg
Hello

Why are you apologize?

Themarksplan gives evidence that food rationning in Soviet Union was a big problem and peoples were suffering.

Themarksplan gives evidence bosses were trying to make things better.

Themarksplan does not give evidence for his claim that peope were literally being worked to death! .

Themarksplan does not give evidence for his claim Imagine working 12hrs/day in arguably the country's most important factory (70% of T-34 production in Nizhny Tagil Tractor IIRC) and being fed so poorly that young male coworkers are literally dying.

The evidence themarksplan gives does not prove his claim that the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse.

Giving evidence is not the same as evidencing some very specific claims.
Hello Vladimir
As I wrote !! If you disagree with the sources given, show is your sources that he is wrong.
Keep the tone friendly and discuss matters without a hostile Tone.
Even if you know you are right you have to give us reason to change our minds (generally speaking)

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#217

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 04 Feb 2020, 22:59

Ружичасти Слон wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:35

Also, how do the datas in the charts relate to your claim of the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse?
Once again:

Image

If basic subsistence items are starting to collapse, those items are on the brink of total collapse.
If basic subsistence items do in fact collapse, the rest of the economy will collapse with them.

This is my opinion, based on the foregoing reasoning and other factors.
Themarksplan does not give evidence for his claim Imagine working 12hrs/day in arguably the country's most important factory (70% of T-34 production in Nizhny Tagil Tractor IIRC) and being fed so poorly that young male coworkers are literally dying.
As Georg notes, my book provides ample documentation of the fact that starvation-induced mortality caused 30-50% of adult deaths (varying by region) and that overall adult mortality during 1943 was 3-7 times higher than in 1940.
In addition, I have provided a chart showing that starvation caused up to 40% of lost workdays at Nizhny Tagil Tractor Factory.

The book does not provide specific mortality statistics for every individual factory.

We know that starvation at the factory was a serious problem and that workers everywhere in the SU were dying of starvation. In order to believe that none of the factory's workers died, you would have to believe that Nizhny Tagil's medical staff were miracle workers. You would have to believe that the factory worked/starved many workers into sickness, but that none of them died. I find that completely ridiculous.
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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#218

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 04 Feb 2020, 23:18

Georg_S wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:56

Hello Vladimir
As I wrote !! If you disagree with the sources given, show is your sources that he is wrong.
Keep the tone friendly and discuss matters without a hostile Tone.
Even if you know you are right you have to give us reason to change our minds (generally speaking)

Georg
Hello Georg

I never said themarksplan was wrong. I am not claiming nothing is right or wrong.

I asked for evidence of specific claims.

From the rules
Undocumented claims undercut the research purposes of this section of the forum. Consequently, it is required that proof be posted along with a claim. The main reason is that proof, evidence, facts, etc. improve the quality of discussions and information. A second reason is that inflammatory, groundless posts and threads attack, and do not promote, the scholarly purpose of this section of the forum.
Peoples already know there was big problem with food shortage in Soviet Union.

Themarkspkan is claim that it was so bad a problem that the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse? and peopes were being worked to death etc.

He gives evidence of something but does not give evidence for his claims.

How does that promote, the scholarly purpose of this section of the forum? As the rules say Undocumented claims undercut the research purposes of this section of the forum.

If authors of book Hunger and war say workers were being worked to death then he has evidence. Why not give it.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 21:54
On the general economy during 1942:

Image
This does not say the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse? This says the economy was strained and some sectors were collapsing. The highlighted example was electricity. Food was always a problem. But the evidence themarksplan gives shows solutions were taken. It does not say brink of total collapse.

I am only asking for themarksplan to evidence his specific claims.

Why is that such a big problem?

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#219

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 04 Feb 2020, 23:24

Ружичасти Слон wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 23:18

I am only asking for themarksplan to evidence his specific claims.
You're repeatedly ignoring evidence provided, and apparently are reporting my posts dishonestly for not providing evidence.
When I give you 9 charts showing shocking increases in adult mortality, you say "People know food rationing in Soviet Union was very strict."
You're plainly determined not to believe the obvious.

For those reasons, you go back on ignore.
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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#220

Post by ljadw » 04 Feb 2020, 23:28

Peter89 wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 21:40
ljadw wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 16:46
Peter89 wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 15:05
ljadw wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 13:50
Peter89 wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 10:58


Alright.
Again, I never said that German troops and arms moved freely across Turkey, I said that a ME / Mediterran strategy instead of Barbarossa and Crete could provide the means to properly support the Axis foothold and interests in the ME. Transport by the sea was mostly (though not entirely) out of the question, because the seas were largely controlled by the RN, so the only means for transport was the air transport. Ljdaw doesn't seem to understand the difference between parachuting troops under fire in hostile territory and landings on friendly airfields. In absence of a strategy for the region, the Germans reacted too late and too little. It can be read in any book about the subject.

1.JPG
2.JPG

source: William M. Hale: Turkish Foreign Policy Since 1774 p. 62-63.
https://books.google.hu/books?id=PlcpRNvsM4cC

Please note that I didn't even read this book, just typed in "iraq mosul vichy france turkey" in Google.
if the airfields are friendly, there is no need to land airborne units, if they are hostile ,the airborne units will be eliminated .Not only the sea but also the air was controlled by Britain .To drop 1000 FJ 800 km away,100 transport aircraft would be needed, and as these could not be protected by fighters, they would be shot before entering Iraq .And if they still were dropped,without ammunition and heavy weapons, they would all be eliminated .During MG ,the British airborne units were eliminated,although the British ground forces were only 100 km away . Thus, why should the FJ survive while the German ground forces would be 800 km away ?
The only way to go from Damascus to Baghdad was by motorized ground forces, but as the RN controlled the Eastern Mediterranean, an Axis Overlord was out of the question .
The whole thing is a non sequitur . Even if the Germans had the forces to do it,they would fail, and even if they would succeed, it would be a wast of time and resources .There was nothing valuable for the Axis in the ME : the ME was not worth the bones of a Prussian grenadier .
I cannot make it easier for you.

This is how you land a Ju-52: https://youtu.be/qxLr5mtTU-8?t=156
And this is how you drop parachuters: https://youtu.be/aqXHwDFn-d0?t=15
A JU 52 would never make it to Baghdad .Its range was 1000 km . Going to Baghdad and returning to Damascus was 1600 km .Thus ...
Thus they can try to refuel...?
The technique of refueling during the flight was not used in WWII ( Source : refueling in air ) .Besides, it could not be used for a group of 100 aircraft .The Mustangs used external tanks to increase their range ( source : Mustang )

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#221

Post by ljadw » 04 Feb 2020, 23:34

Ружичасти Слон wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 23:18
Georg_S wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:56

Hello Vladimir
As I wrote !! If you disagree with the sources given, show is your sources that he is wrong.
Keep the tone friendly and discuss matters without a hostile Tone.
Even if you know you are right you have to give us reason to change our minds (generally speaking)

Georg
Hello Georg

I never said themarksplan was wrong. I am not claiming nothing is right or wrong.

I asked for evidence of specific claims.

From the rules
Undocumented claims undercut the research purposes of this section of the forum. Consequently, it is required that proof be posted along with a claim. The main reason is that proof, evidence, facts, etc. improve the quality of discussions and information. A second reason is that inflammatory, groundless posts and threads attack, and do not promote, the scholarly purpose of this section of the forum.
Peoples already know there was big problem with food shortage in Soviet Union.

Themarkspkan is claim that it was so bad a problem that the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse? and peopes were being worked to death etc.

He gives evidence of something but does not give evidence for his claims.

How does that promote, the scholarly purpose of this section of the forum? As the rules say Undocumented claims undercut the research purposes of this section of the forum.

If authors of book Hunger and war say workers were being worked to death then he has evidence. Why not give it.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 21:54
On the general economy during 1942:

Image
This does not say the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse? This says the economy was strained and some sectors were collapsing. The highlighted example was electricity. Food was always a problem. But the evidence themarksplan gives shows solutions were taken. It does not say brink of total collapse.

I am only asking for themarksplan to evidence his specific claims.

Why is that such a big problem?
I agree with Vladimir : the official rations were insufficient to survive, but the overwhelming majority of the population survived, that's why it is wrong to use official rations as proof for famine .If people would look at ''the shadow economy '' they would know that the population survived by its own initiative and by the black market . It was so in the occupied countries and also in the non occupied parts of the SU .

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#222

Post by Ружичасти Слон » 04 Feb 2020, 23:37

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:59

If basic subsistence items are starting to collapse, those items are on the brink of total collapse.
If basic subsistence items do in fact collapse, the rest of the economy will collapse with them.
The text says the economy was strained. It says some sectors began to collapse.

Begin to collapse means already in process of collapse. Not on brink already started. What is total collapse? How far is begin collapse before total collapse? How far from total collapse in some sectors for strained economy to total collapse?

Answers to those questions help understand if total Soviet Economy really is on brink of total collapse.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:59
This is my opinion, based on the foregoing reasoning and other factors.
Yes. It is your opinion that it is at that point. But it is not a proven fact. It is your conjecture. Nothing more.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 22:59
As Georg notes, my book provides ample documentation of the fact that starvation-induced mortality caused 30-50% of adult deaths (varying by region) and that overall adult mortality during 1943 was 3-7 times higher than in 1940.
In addition, I have provided a chart showing that starvation caused up to 40% of lost workdays at Nizhny Tagil Tractor Factory.

The book does not provide specific mortality statistics for every individual factory.

We know that starvation at the factory was a serious problem and that workers everywhere in the SU were dying of starvation. In order to believe that none of the factory's workers died, you would have to believe that Nizhny Tagil's medical staff were miracle workers. You would have to believe that the factory worked/starved many workers into sickness, but that none of them died. I find that completely ridiculous.
Does your book give total numbers for deaths from starvation? All the images you post are % numbers?
25% of 100 dead is 25 dead. Not a problem for the economy.
25% of 4.000.000 dead is 1.000.000 dead. Problem for economy.

Starvation is not dead. Sometimes it does have that result. 40% of lost workdays does not say 1 singles dead person.

You give lots of evidence. Thank you. But you have conclusions what the evidences do not prove.

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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#223

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 05 Feb 2020, 00:07

ljadw wrote:famine
Important point: The issue here isn't whether the SU was in what we would usually call a famine. It wasn't quite that serious. Had war not been occurring people wouldn't be working so much and wouldn't have had to do additional labor to grow supplementary food in labor plots. Per Hunger and War (p.63), average daily calorie intake was 2,555 - easily sufficient for survival in the absence of war.

Rather, the issue is that the SU had a bare margin of food with which to continue the war effort. Soldiers and overworked laborers need more food and they generally got more food than people doing less intensive labor (or no labor).

Had Germany conquered more of the breadbasket in '41/'42, or had they held the lands taken Blau, the SU still probably would not have been in what we typically consider a famine. It would, however, have likely been incapable of feeding soldiers and laborers enough food to continue the war effort. Workers toiling 12hr days would likely have succumbed to starvation given any significant cut to rations.

The SU would have had to make peace, in short, or try to fight the war with half its weapons output.
ljadw wrote:If people would look at ''the shadow economy '' they would know that the population survived by its own initiative and by the black market . It was so in the occupied countries and also in the non occupied parts of the SU .
The authors of Hunger and War address this common argument and reject it. They find that the state was the central food source during the war:

Image




Here's their table of food sources:

Image





Note that although collective farm markets and individual gardens were important, these were largely established and/or regulated by the state:

Image


The worker's garden plots, for example, were given by state authorities, tracked by them, and supplied with inputs by the state.

So it's simply not true that state supplies of food were a minor factor in Soviet survival. They were the critical factor providing nearly all food in one form or another and disruption of these supplies would have collapsed the food supply.
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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#224

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 05 Feb 2020, 00:33

Another note:

Per a Wikipedia citation to a Russian publication:
Russian sources also report 2.5 to 3.2 million Soviet civilians who died due to famine and disease in non-occupied territory of the USSR, which was caused by wartime shortages in the rear areas.
Citing to: Rossiiskaia Akademiia nauk. Liudskie poteri SSSR v period vtoroi mirovoi voiny: sbornik statei. Sankt-Peterburg 1995; ISBN 5-86789-023-6, p. 158

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War ... ian_losses

That's broadly in line with the numbers from Hunger and War. What Hunger and War adds, however, is insight into exactly who was dying: It was disproportionately working-age males rather than more intuitive suspects the elderly. This was the population most heavily-strained by exertion under conditions of food scarcity.
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Re: The State of the OstHeer - May 1942

#225

Post by Terry Duncan » 05 Feb 2020, 00:37

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
04 Feb 2020, 21:54
More excerpts from Hunger and War, giving some narrative to workers' food situation:

Image
[page 73]

Image



Further example of food shortage impacting war production, from page 92:

Image



On the general economy during 1942:

Image



Once again, as my upthread quote from Stephen Kotkin understands, the Soviet economy in 1942 was on the brink of total collapse and the food situation was extremely perilous. The Soviet government was able to hide these facts for decades but historians are starting to document and understand the truth.
So where is the reference to people dying in the specific factory under discussion? Indeed nothing quoted mentions people dying at all, only being in various stages of starvation, and never says if they died or recieved enough food to survive.

Also, with regards to the nature of posts from other members here, I will add to what George_S has said, if you cannot behave and follow the rules, the topic will be locked and disciplinary action taken against repeat offenders.

Terry Duncan

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