The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
glenn239
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by glenn239 » 26 Feb 2021 16:53

historygeek2021 wrote:
25 Feb 2021 19:58
Non-aggression pacts weren't worth the paper they were printed on.
Maybe, maybe not. Either way, entirely irrelevant. In 1941 the Japanese and Soviets both banked on their non-aggression pact holding for a few years, so in terms of Barbarossa, invading the USSR was a completely useless thing to do in order to 'free up' Japan. Japan was already freed up by the non-aggression pact for a move south.

Looks to me you're trying to shoehorn the scenario that Germany must attack the USSR as being the only possible option. This is wrong. War with the
USSR was an avoidable catastrophe for Germany. It's all Hitler's fault, 100%. He was wrong, and spectacularily wrong. That's the problem with the fangs out personality style of leadership - the disasters are often of the biggest scale imaginable.

historygeek2021
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by historygeek2021 » 26 Feb 2021 17:12

That is factually untrue. The Japanese did not trust the Soviet Union to honor the neutrality pact. At the Japanese Imperial Conference on July 1, 1941, the president of the privy council stated:

"Some people say that it would be improper for Japan to attack the Soviet Union in view of the Neutrality Pact; but the Soviet Union is notorious for her habitual acts of betrayal. If we were to attack the Soviet Union, no one would regard it as treachery. I am eagerly waiting for the opportunity to attack the Soviet Union. . . . I believe that Japan should avoid taking belligerent action against the United States, at least on this occasion. Also I would ask the government and the Supreme Command to attack the Soviet Union as soon as possible. The Soviet Union must be destroyed, so I hope that you will make preparations to hasten the commencement of hostilities. I cannot help but hope that this policy will be put into effect as soon as it is decided."

Quoted in Ellman, James. Hitler's Great Gamble (p. 246). Stackpole Books. Kindle Edition.

And of course, they were right. The Soviets broke the pact as soon as Germany was no longer a threat.

glenn239
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by glenn239 » 26 Feb 2021 18:09

historygeek2021 wrote:
26 Feb 2021 17:12
That is factually untrue. The Japanese did not trust the Soviet Union to honor the neutrality pact. At the Japanese Imperial Conference on July 1, 1941, the president of the privy council stated:

"Some people say that it would be improper for Japan to attack the Soviet Union in view of the Neutrality Pact; but the Soviet Union is notorious for her habitual acts of betrayal. If we were to attack the Soviet Union, no one would regard it as treachery. I am eagerly waiting for the opportunity to attack the Soviet Union. . . . I believe that Japan should avoid taking belligerent action against the United States, at least on this occasion. Also I would ask the government and the Supreme Command to attack the Soviet Union as soon as possible. The Soviet Union must be destroyed, so I hope that you will make preparations to hasten the commencement of hostilities. I cannot help but hope that this policy will be put into effect as soon as it is decided."

Quoted in Ellman, James. Hitler's Great Gamble (p. 246). Stackpole Books. Kindle Edition.

And of course, they were right. The Soviets broke the pact as soon as Germany was no longer a threat.
Interesting information, but that's a long way from the conclusion that the non-aggression pact meant nothing at all. In fact, once the decision was made to occupy Southern Indochina, events spilled into war with the US from the embargo. Can you link Barbarossa to the Japanese decision there, in Indochina?

Peter89
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by Peter89 » 03 Mar 2021 07:44

Germany and Japan both considered the SU as a threat, but in fact the SU would not attack either in the time frame when the Axis had to defeat the Western Allies, before they could muster their superior resources.

Stalin would join the Axis if certain criteria were met, especially if the Axis was winning. The joint attack on the SU would mean that both the Japanese and the Germans shot their one bullet on the wrong target.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

ljadw
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by ljadw » 03 Mar 2021 21:36

Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 07:44
Germany and Japan both considered the SU as a threat, but in fact the SU would not attack either in the time frame when the Axis had to defeat the Western Allies, before they could muster their superior resources.

Stalin would join the Axis if certain criteria were met, especially if the Axis was winning.


The joint attack on the SU would mean that both the Japanese and the Germans shot their one bullet on the wrong target.
It is not so that Germany considered the SU as a threat .Hitler said that Stalin would attack Germany only if Germany was losing .
That Stalin WOULD MAYBE join the Axis on the condition that it was winning,was not benefiting Germany: Franco also would have joined the Axis if it was winning .As Turkey,or Sweden..
The point is that Germany was NOT winning .
That Germany was shooting its only bullet on the wrong target, is not correct : it was shooting its only bullet on the only remaining target, which was :the USSR .

Peter89
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by Peter89 » 03 Mar 2021 21:44

ljadw wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:36
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 07:44
Germany and Japan both considered the SU as a threat, but in fact the SU would not attack either in the time frame when the Axis had to defeat the Western Allies, before they could muster their superior resources.

Stalin would join the Axis if certain criteria were met, especially if the Axis was winning.


The joint attack on the SU would mean that both the Japanese and the Germans shot their one bullet on the wrong target.
It is not so that Germany considered the SU as a threat .Hitler said that Stalin would attack Germany only if Germany was losing .
That Stalin WOULD MAYBE join the Axis on the condition that it was winning,was not benefiting Germany: Franco also would have joined the Axis if it was winning .As Turkey,or Sweden..
The point is that Germany was NOT winning .
That Germany was shooting its only bullet on the wrong target, is not correct : it was shooting its only bullet on the only remaining target, which was :the USSR .
The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

historygeek2021
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by historygeek2021 » 03 Mar 2021 23:35

Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44

The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
And by invading the Soviet Union, Germany freed Japan to inflict greatest possible damage that any of the Axis nations could inflict on the British Empire.

Peter89
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by Peter89 » 04 Mar 2021 07:33

historygeek2021 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 23:35
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44

The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
And by invading the Soviet Union, Germany freed Japan to inflict greatest possible damage that any of the Axis nations could inflict on the British Empire.
Japan was free to do so regardless of Barbarossa.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

historygeek2021
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by historygeek2021 » 04 Mar 2021 18:38

Japan had long regarded Russia as its biggest enemy. They had a decades long history of conflict and fought constant border clashes in the 1930s. There were substantial Red Army units massed on the Manchurian border, and these were reduced substantially after Barbarossa because they were needed to fight Germany. To suggest that Barbarossa did not help free Japan to attack the British Empire is disingenuous and without merit.

Peter89
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by Peter89 » 04 Mar 2021 20:58

historygeek2021 wrote:
04 Mar 2021 18:38
Japan had long regarded Russia as its biggest enemy. They had a decades long history of conflict and fought constant border clashes in the 1930s. There were substantial Red Army units massed on the Manchurian border, and these were reduced substantially after Barbarossa because they were needed to fight Germany. To suggest that Barbarossa did not help free Japan to attack the British Empire is disingenuous and without merit.
The Soviets did not attack the Japanese or the Germans.

They'd be stupid to do so, because A. it was not clear that they could win against Germany & its allies, B. they had no means to win against Japan if Japan really resisted (much like Germany vs Britain). The SU would carefully chip away some minor nations for which neither Great Power would go to war. Hitler played the same game basically until he screwed up with Poland.

The Barbarossa meant that the Soviets will not attack with all their might in the Far East, but it didn't mean that they've evacuated the area or that they threatened the entire mainland conquests of the Japanese Empire, because they simply couldn't do so.
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

ljadw
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by ljadw » 05 Mar 2021 18:30

historygeek2021 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 23:35
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44

The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
And by invading the Soviet Union, Germany freed Japan to inflict greatest possible damage that any of the Axis nations could inflict on the British Empire.
There is no connection between Barbarossa and the Japanese attack on Britain .

ljadw
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by ljadw » 05 Mar 2021 18:42

Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44
ljadw wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:36
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 07:44
Germany and Japan both considered the SU as a threat, but in fact the SU would not attack either in the time frame when the Axis had to defeat the Western Allies, before they could muster their superior resources.

Stalin would join the Axis if certain criteria were met, especially if the Axis was winning.


The joint attack on the SU would mean that both the Japanese and the Germans shot their one bullet on the wrong target.
It is not so that Germany considered the SU as a threat .Hitler said that Stalin would attack Germany only if Germany was losing .
That Stalin WOULD MAYBE join the Axis on the condition that it was winning,was not benefiting Germany: Franco also would have joined the Axis if it was winning .As Turkey,or Sweden..
The point is that Germany was NOT winning .
That Germany was shooting its only bullet on the wrong target, is not correct : it was shooting its only bullet on the only remaining target, which was :the USSR .
The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
Germany was convinced that if the war against Britain lasted, it would be faced by a coalition of Britain and the US ,that it could not win against this coalition ,and that when its cities were destroyed and its armies were running away to the Siegfried Line, the Soviets would invade Eastern Germany .
The whole problem was to force Britain to give up before the US would intervene, but all the attempts to force Britain to give up had failed, thus to continue to focus on Britain was a wast of time .
As Germany had not the means to prevent the US to intervene and as it could not attack the US after a US DOW, only the USSR remained and the Germans convinced themselves that a quick defeat of the USSR would force Britain to give up and that such a defeat was possible .
If in Whitehall one became convinced that the Landser was invincible, one should accept peace at the German condition .
The USSR was the only target remaining at the end of 1940 that could give Germany peace and victory .
The attacks on Britain had failed.
An attack on the US was impossible .
Only the USSR remained .

Peter89
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by Peter89 » 05 Mar 2021 19:20

ljadw wrote:
05 Mar 2021 18:42
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44
ljadw wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:36
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 07:44
Germany and Japan both considered the SU as a threat, but in fact the SU would not attack either in the time frame when the Axis had to defeat the Western Allies, before they could muster their superior resources.

Stalin would join the Axis if certain criteria were met, especially if the Axis was winning.


The joint attack on the SU would mean that both the Japanese and the Germans shot their one bullet on the wrong target.
It is not so that Germany considered the SU as a threat .Hitler said that Stalin would attack Germany only if Germany was losing .
That Stalin WOULD MAYBE join the Axis on the condition that it was winning,was not benefiting Germany: Franco also would have joined the Axis if it was winning .As Turkey,or Sweden..
The point is that Germany was NOT winning .
That Germany was shooting its only bullet on the wrong target, is not correct : it was shooting its only bullet on the only remaining target, which was :the USSR .
The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
Germany was convinced that if the war against Britain lasted, it would be faced by a coalition of Britain and the US ,that it could not win against this coalition ,and that when its cities were destroyed and its armies were running away to the Siegfried Line, the Soviets would invade Eastern Germany .
The whole problem was to force Britain to give up before the US would intervene, but all the attempts to force Britain to give up had failed, thus to continue to focus on Britain was a wast of time .
As Germany had not the means to prevent the US to intervene and as it could not attack the US after a US DOW, only the USSR remained and the Germans convinced themselves that a quick defeat of the USSR would force Britain to give up and that such a defeat was possible .
If in Whitehall one became convinced that the Landser was invincible, one should accept peace at the German condition .
The USSR was the only target remaining at the end of 1940 that could give Germany peace and victory .
The attacks on Britain had failed.
An attack on the US was impossible .
Only the USSR remained .
Why do we keep running in circles over and over again?

I told you many many times that there were multiple options which the Germans could choose from. After years of debate, we seem to agree on many aspects of the decision making process in Germany, except this one. How about to change the angle this time, and we ask basic questions of each other, and the other will answer. Let's say we can ask 3 questions.

1.) Would the Soviets attack the Axis before 1943?
2.) What do you think the net balance of the Eastern front was for Germany and the Axis?
3.) How do you think the loss of the Mediterraneum would affect the British Empire?
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

historygeek2021
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by historygeek2021 » 05 Mar 2021 21:42

ljadw wrote:
05 Mar 2021 18:30
historygeek2021 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 23:35
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44

The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
And by invading the Soviet Union, Germany freed Japan to inflict greatest possible damage that any of the Axis nations could inflict on the British Empire.
There is no connection between Barbarossa and the Japanese attack on Britain .
Except for the fact that Hitler said that he was invading Russia in order to free Japan to attack Britain ...

ljadw
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Re: The Logic of German Global Military Strategy in 1941

Post by ljadw » 06 Mar 2021 07:25

historygeek2021 wrote:
05 Mar 2021 21:42
ljadw wrote:
05 Mar 2021 18:30
historygeek2021 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 23:35
Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2021 21:44

The British Empire was the target, not the SU.
And by invading the Soviet Union, Germany freed Japan to inflict greatest possible damage that any of the Axis nations could inflict on the British Empire.
There is no connection between Barbarossa and the Japanese attack on Britain .
Except for the fact that Hitler said that he was invading Russia in order to free Japan to attack Britain ...
not : in order, but ''hoping ''.
Besides, his hope was an illusion : Japan did not attack Britain in the Summer of 1941 and,there was no benefit foir Japan to attack Britain .

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