when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

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Peter89
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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#421

Post by Peter89 » 11 Jan 2022, 15:17

Penchanski wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 12:10

glenn239 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 04:06
250 tons per division per day in heavy fighting for a static infantry division, meaning 1 barge or 4 Siebels per division per day. Drop that to 30 tons between British offensives.
Way too low. I can only repeat the analysis of the US War Office
https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/Germany/HB/HB-6.html
"This is best shown by a review of the German supply expenditures in Russia in 1941. Armored divisions averaged some 30 tons daily when inactive and about 700 tons a day when engaged in heavy fighting; infantry divisions required 80 tons a day when inactive and some 1,100 tons during a day of heavy fighting. When engaged in defensive, mopping-up, or minor offensive activities, the divisions required supplies in amounts somewhere between the two extremes. "
There were individual differences with every kind of operations. For example, the Gebirgsjäger and Fallschirmjäger on Crete did not receive their respective share of 1100 tons per day, yet the fighting was very heavy.

These numbers are not telling the story at all. For example, the number of motor vehicles, guns, etc. all influence the "requirements", which is a broad term as well. It's not that if requirements are not fulfilled then the supplied unit perishes immediately. And saying that a divisional requirement is somewhere between 80 and 1100 tons is like saying Austria is somewhere between Spain and Russia.

But this all doesn't make any sense, because the Achilles-heel of BoB is not the lack or abundance of supplies. The core of the problem is that the Germans had no way to crack that nut of Britain. On the seas, they were totally inferior. In the air, they were defeated. No amount of air transports or naval transports could solve that problem: the Brits would sink or shoot them down.

Also the Brits defeated the Germans on many levels, not just in terms of firepower. The German radio navigation systems were jammed in the matter of days. The idea of a coordinated attack was problematic in the Wehrmacht: for example, the fighter crews did not meet the bomber crews in person, whom they were supposed to protect. The U-boats did not receive immediate intels by the Luftwaffe maritime recon services. The antishipping bomber units did not plan operations together with the destroyers or with the navy in general. Supplies and procurement was not simply uncoordinated between the services, but in case of the Luftwaffe, it was also detached from the operational command, resulting all kind of useless supplies piling up while the unit was in dire need of others. I could continue this list until daybreak, the point is that the Germans were nowhere near to pull off a successful BoB in 1940.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#422

Post by Richard Anderson » 11 Jan 2022, 17:54

Peter89 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 11:01
As for airlift capabilities: there was no unified air transport command neither for troops nor for supplies in 1940. Thus it is irrelevant how many Ju 52s were "there" or operational: a good number of these were flight school planes, courier aircrafts, liasion aircraft, borrowed from the Lufthansa and whatnot. I tried to calculate the actual, deployable number of Ju 52s after Weserübung and Westfeldzug, and the number is probably closer to 200. If the Germans tap into the flight school aircrafts and crews to a greater degree, the result would be catastrophic.
Absolutely, which is why I emphasize those figures are for the entire Luftwaffe. I have been around and around this issue with glenn many times, especially with regards to the Stuka Gruppen. There as well the number of aircraft on hand and serviceable simply do not match the capability of the units in September 1940, when entire Gruppen simply were not counted as operational as they were forced to retrain entire units instead of individual replacements after the devastating losses of July and August.
The carrying capacity of He 111 was not 6 men, but converting bombers to transports was not as easy as it might sound. The basic problem was that there was a door beneath the main weight carrying section of the fuselage.
I kind of thought most giving it more than a thought would see the flaw in that plan. :D Yes, the He 111 was pressed into service at Demyansk and Stalingrad as emergency transports, but that was not an indicator of the flexibility of the He 111, it was an indicator of the basic lack of capability in the Luftwaffe.
(snip) While the journey is about 30 mins, the three airfields Forczyk mentions can start approximately 108 planes in an hour, so what we are talking about here as requirement is near-permanent air superiority over IOW or southern Britain, which is impossible.
I think the words you were searching for was "near total air supremacy over IOW or southern Britain". The conditions required for glenn's scenario would be zero RAF basing south of a line Bristol-Norwich, for which there is no reasonable explanation.
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Peter89
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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#423

Post by Peter89 » 11 Jan 2022, 19:00

Richard Anderson wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 17:54
Peter89 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 11:01
As for airlift capabilities: there was no unified air transport command neither for troops nor for supplies in 1940. Thus it is irrelevant how many Ju 52s were "there" or operational: a good number of these were flight school planes, courier aircrafts, liasion aircraft, borrowed from the Lufthansa and whatnot. I tried to calculate the actual, deployable number of Ju 52s after Weserübung and Westfeldzug, and the number is probably closer to 200. If the Germans tap into the flight school aircrafts and crews to a greater degree, the result would be catastrophic.
Absolutely, which is why I emphasize those figures are for the entire Luftwaffe. I have been around and around this issue with glenn many times, especially with regards to the Stuka Gruppen. There as well the number of aircraft on hand and serviceable simply do not match the capability of the units in September 1940, when entire Gruppen simply were not counted as operational as they were forced to retrain entire units instead of individual replacements after the devastating losses of July and August.
I'm into this very topic now, and try to cross-check on-spot memoirs and operational reports with official numbers of serviceable aircrafts.

The difference is astonishing.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#424

Post by T. A. Gardner » 11 Jan 2022, 20:07

All the Luftwaffe would have to suffer for a shock would be one or more Palm Sunday massacres. That is, a Ju 52 transport group is flying in formation for England--under escort--and the RAF shows up in strength. The escort is drawn into a fight while other RAF fighters systematically shoot down the Ju 52's. Even if these scatter and try to head back to France, or land anywhere they can, having a flight of say 30 to 50 planes suffer losses between ones shot down, shot up, or otherwise rendered unserviceable that reach say 50% of the group, that is completely unsustainable for the Luftwaffe.

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#425

Post by Peter89 » 11 Jan 2022, 23:26

To be honest I don't think that the Luftwaffe would be so stupid to send an air convoy like that before the supply situation turned desperate.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#426

Post by daveshoup2MD » 12 Jan 2022, 00:43

T. A. Gardner wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 20:07
All the Luftwaffe would have to suffer for a shock would be one or more Palm Sunday massacres. That is, a Ju 52 transport group is flying in formation for England--under escort--and the RAF shows up in strength. The escort is drawn into a fight while other RAF fighters systematically shoot down the Ju 52's. Even if these scatter and try to head back to France, or land anywhere they can, having a flight of say 30 to 50 planes suffer losses between ones shot down, shot up, or otherwise rendered unserviceable that reach say 50% of the group, that is completely unsustainable for the Luftwaffe.
And it's worth pointing out than against Ju. 52s, the RAF doesn't need Spitfires and Hurricanes - Defiants and Gladiators should be more than enough.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#427

Post by T. A. Gardner » 12 Jan 2022, 01:52

Peter89 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 23:26
To be honest I don't think that the Luftwaffe would be so stupid to send an air convoy like that before the supply situation turned desperate.
They did so repeatedly to N. Africa. One of these got caught and the Palm Sunday massacre resulted.

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#428

Post by Richard Anderson » 12 Jan 2022, 02:12

T. A. Gardner wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 01:52
Peter89 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 23:26
To be honest I don't think that the Luftwaffe would be so stupid to send an air convoy like that before the supply situation turned desperate.
They did so repeatedly to N. Africa. One of these got caught and the Palm Sunday massacre resulted.
Indeed they did, because the supply situation turned desperate.

More interesting would be what if the RAF intercepts the Ju 52 delivering the 7. Flieger-Division forlorn hope.
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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#429

Post by daveshoup2MD » 12 Jan 2022, 04:53

Richard Anderson wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 02:12
T. A. Gardner wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 01:52
Peter89 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 23:26
To be honest I don't think that the Luftwaffe would be so stupid to send an air convoy like that before the supply situation turned desperate.
They did so repeatedly to N. Africa. One of these got caught and the Palm Sunday massacre resulted.
Indeed they did, because the supply situation turned desperate.

More interesting would be what if the RAF intercepts the Ju 52 delivering the 7. Flieger-Division forlorn hope.
Many German infantrymen die unpleasantly, presumably.

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#430

Post by Peter89 » 12 Jan 2022, 08:22

Richard Anderson wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 02:12
T. A. Gardner wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 01:52
Peter89 wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 23:26
To be honest I don't think that the Luftwaffe would be so stupid to send an air convoy like that before the supply situation turned desperate.
They did so repeatedly to N. Africa. One of these got caught and the Palm Sunday massacre resulted.
Indeed they did, because the supply situation turned desperate.

More interesting would be what if the RAF intercepts the Ju 52 delivering the 7. Flieger-Division forlorn hope.
Depends on many factors, mostly that I am not sure whether the RAF had enough night fighters to deal with them and whether the German timing was sharp enough to arrive at daybreak. I see most of the first wave shot down by AA fire.

Let's say they are being late 30 mins coz of undertrained pilots (this is also a reason why it doesn't make sense to imagine 400ish combat ready Ju 52s) and it is pretty much game over for them.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#431

Post by John T » 12 Jan 2022, 22:19

daveshoup2MD wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 04:53
John T wrote:
10 Jan 2022, 23:45
daveshoup2MD wrote:
09 Jan 2022, 23:27
4. The evacuations of the British expeditionary forces in Norway, France, and Greece demonstrates the capacity of the British navy in shore to ship operations over the beach, which is the point of the comparison with amphibious assault; the British did not evacuate any significant ground force elements from Malaya in 1942 or Malta at any point in 1940-45, that I am aware of - please detail such if I am mistaken.

Sorry, I mixed up Malta with Crete.
Regarding the Malaya peninsula and Island of Singapore, British losses in the peninsula were obvious before the retreat across straight of Johor.

Of the mentioned withdrawals only Narvik could be described as somewhat successful.
To drag army troops out of the water and into RN ships leaving equipment, unit cohesion, and morale at the beach doesn't say much of the amphibious capacity.

daveshoup2MD wrote:
09 Jan 2022, 23:27
1. When on the defensive, and when mobile reserves are limited but construction equipment and construction materials are in supply, building multiple defensive lines is rational;
So it had nothing to do with a perception that warfare should be static and fought by front lines as in the Great war?

daveshoup2MD wrote:
09 Jan 2022, 23:27
... and the mobile forces that did exist - and which only became stronger and more numerous as the summer and autumn went on - had demonstrated their abilities in terms of mobile warfare in France in the 1940 campaign, notably at Arras, and similar organizations demonstrated their abilities against Axis light infantry, even dug in, the same year in Egypt (Sidi Barrani); neither would be a direct parallel, largely because Axis armor and artillery would be extremely limited in comparison, but both make it clear British tankers and motorized infantry and artillery were quite capable of overrunning Axis infantry, even with - as at Arras - armor and heavy artillery in support.

3. In Singapore, the British forces faced an enemy that had control of the air and of the sea, and their forces were penned on an island without any room to maneuver, rear areas of note, or line of supply and reinforcement; plus, Malaya and Singapore were expendable for the British in 1942; England was not, in 1940 or ever.
May I present Churchills view on the expendable Singapore https://winstonchurchill.org/publicati ... singapore/

Churchill asked Ismay that a plan be made at once while the battle in Johore was going forward. He outlined what the plan should comprise. Among the ten elements of the plan, Churchill included: “(i) Not only must the defence of Singapore Island be maintained by every means, but the whole island must be fought for until every single unit and every single strong point has been separately destroyed. (j) Finally, the city of Singapore must be converted into a citadel and defended to the death. No surrender can be contemplated, and the Commander, Staffs and principal officers are expected to perish at their posts.

The interesting part is that you cite the British excuses why they lost Singapore,
mix up Italians in Sidi Barrani with Germans,
and try to make the British attack at Arras a success.
To me, the arguments provided show how bad the state of the British army where.

And the almost religious belief "But when defending England" they would not find any new excuses for failure.
And all of a sudden get their act together.

On the other hand, I see the same lack of self-awareness from Winston in sending a small force to Greece, with the intention to Prop up the Greeks.
The dreamland of make-believe, that when reality hits, ends in a string of excuses.


Cheers
/John T
The withdrawal from Malaya to Singapore was largely across the Causeway, was it not?

Getting any manpower out of France and Greece (and off Crete) were pretty significant achievements, especially in the face of the available Axis air power and the relative paucity of the RAF in terms of covering all three evacuations; so, no, actually, they were impressive displays of capacity of the RN to organize complex operations on the fly, in very fluid operational situations, and mange them successfully - although the reality the men were evacuated absent much equipment certainly reinforces the point that amphibious withdrawals are the only operation more challenging than an amphibious assault.

The British Army commanders, from the battalion level to the CIGS, had literally just seen that mobile warfare was the reality they faced, so no, not at all (regarding the "refight WW I" comment). Field fortifications, especially against a light infantry force (which is what the German expeditionary force would be, in anything resembling the reality of Q3/Q4, 1940), however, are very effective, and the British understood that, hence the various field fortifications they built in 1940.

Churchill was mistaken about what could be done in Singapore with what the British had on hand, hence the point that a realistic appraisal of the situation would have been to not reinforce failure; that being said, an ad hoc landing by a half dozen German light infantry division equivalents in England in the autumn of 1940 would have given the British every advantage and the Axis none.

As examples, the British attack at Arras penetrated 10 miles against German tanks, heavy artillery, and motorized infantry, which if the equivalent had taken place in September, 1940 somewhere in England, would have presumably crushed any German infantry beachhead perimeter and put the British mobile forces well into what would have passed for the German rear areas on the same beachhead; not a recipe for success for sustaining a beachhead when the Germans had no NGFS capacity.

Actually, Sidi Barrani was cited because in 1940, along with Arras, it is an obvious example of British armor/mobile forces on the attack against an Axis defending force. Given that, it is much better evidence for the British ability to mount a division+ scaled counterattack against Axis light infantry in 1940 than there any example of the German ability to mount an amphibious operation against a prepared Allied force the same year - since there is not any.
Sorry, but I wouldn't bother to extend this thread another xx pages with a discussion based on bias alone.
Thanks for your analysis but I'll maintain I find it most probable that all the excuses used by the British army to explain their failures during the period 1939-41 would also be used if the Germans had reached English soil.

I do not say Seelöwe had succeeded, but why should the British army have learned all the lessons learned up to 1944,
just because they fight on English soil?

Cheers
/John T

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#432

Post by daveshoup2MD » 13 Jan 2022, 02:36

John T wrote:
12 Jan 2022, 22:19
Sorry, but I wouldn't bother to extend this thread another xx pages with a discussion based on bias alone.
Thanks for your analysis but I'll maintain I find it most probable that all the excuses used by the British army to explain their failures during the period 1939-41 would also be used if the Germans had reached English soil. I do not say Seelöwe had succeeded, but why should the British army have learned all the lessons learned up to 1944, just because they fight on English soil?
So accusing a poster of "bias" and then taking the ball and going home is a good faith argument. Okay... as has been said:

... “You took my ship by surprise, Captain,” (the Nazi captain) said slowly. “Otherwise …”

“And what the Hell have you been doing all these months,” Ericson thought, “except taking people by surprise, stalking them, giving them no chance.”

But that idea would not have registered. Instead he smiled ironically and said: “It is war. I am sorry if it is too hard for you.”


- Lt. Cdr. Noel Monsarrat, RNVR, 1910 – 1979 - one of those surrender-prone Englishmen you're referring to, of course. ;)

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#433

Post by glenn239 » 13 Jan 2022, 02:45

daveshoup2MD wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:21
This thing will end in a few days, when the Germans who end up swimming or wading ashore ashore run out of whatever amount food, water, and ammunition they managed to drag ashore from the first wave and they surrender, surrounded by the bodies of their comrades who didn't make it that long ... this thing makes the British technique and execution at Gallipoli like the state of the art.

The IJN's plan at First Wake was more likely to succeed than SEALION, and we all know how that went...
At First Wake, what was the Japanese response, to accept the original defeat or to attack again based on the fact that the original repulse did not change the underlying calculus?

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#434

Post by daveshoup2MD » 13 Jan 2022, 03:22

glenn239 wrote:
13 Jan 2022, 02:45
daveshoup2MD wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:21
This thing will end in a few days, when the Germans who end up swimming or wading ashore ashore run out of whatever amount food, water, and ammunition they managed to drag ashore from the first wave and they surrender, surrounded by the bodies of their comrades who didn't make it that long ... this thing makes the British technique and execution at Gallipoli like the state of the art.

The IJN's plan at First Wake was more likely to succeed than SEALION, and we all know how that went...
At First Wake, what was the Japanese response, to accept the original defeat or to attack again based on the fact that the original repulse did not change the underlying calculus?
The Japanese attacked Wake again, with a landing force tripled in size, amphibious shipping to match, and naval and air covering forces that dwarfed what the Japanese had committed to the first, failed assault - including a third of the IJN's fast carrier force. Not exactly the "underlying calculus"...

So, unless the Germans can conjure up the equivalent in 1940 - which begs the question of why if they had such resources, they would not have been committed in the first place - the "underlying calculus" is that any version of SEALION based on the reality of the correlation of forces in 1940 was doomed to failure - as even the Germans realized.

Generally not the most insightful bunch, the Nazis, but they were so in the third quarter of 1940 when it came to SEALION - not so much in the second - or fourth - quarters of 1941, but that's why the Germans lost, isn't it?

Interesting, that. ;)

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Re: when was it too late for sealion if they got ashore

#435

Post by glenn239 » 13 Jan 2022, 03:24

Richard Anderson wrote:
11 Jan 2022, 05:02
Um, if your estimate "1 transit per Siebel every 4 days" where do you estimate the fuel comes from and how the refueling is accomplished?
Two choices, either they refuel them on the English side of the pool, or they have them carry enough gas to make the return trip at the expense of cargo and increased combat vulnerability. Both methods have obvious drawbacks, but between the two, I'd lean towards refuelling them on the English side.
On 10 November 1942, there were 1,025 on hand and 741 operational transports in the Luftwaffe. On 10 February 1943 there were 594 on hand and 326 operational. Amazing how 4.5 to 7 aircraft lost per day affects overall readiness.
Indeed, if Sealion had a 3 month air supply, like the example of Tunisia, the losses would add up.
The only time the system was compromised was accidental and was never understood by the Germans or exploited by them. Meanwhile, none of the German SEELÖWE objectives actually targeted any such sites and the sites they did target weren't actually radar sites. Yes, some of the sites were vulnerable if the Germans succeeded in establishing and exploiting their beachheads, but the British also had mobile CH systems as backups.
The idea being that there would be degradation in radar coverage, in particular at low level. The other problem would be that if a bridgehead was established, the Germans could send their own radars forward to assist in their air force operations, such as for directing offensive fighter sweeps.

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