At what point did Germany lose WW2?

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nota
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by nota » 28 Feb 2020 22:10

corbulo wrote:
27 Feb 2020 14:10
nota wrote:
27 Feb 2020 00:13
they lost when they did not unite with the other axis nations with an over all plan and a one country at a time limited war
england first then the reds not both at once then japan attacks the USA not the reds so no real help or common cause

if japan went all in and sent the fleet to attack and invade england with italian AND GERMANY in a united effort
the axis could have had a chance of winning and only after that was over then attacked the reds from both sides

the western allied powers were united with clear plans germany first then japan and massive aid to the reds from the west
the axis was a gang of country's each with a separate plan and agenda who seldom if ever cared about the best plan for the axis just
their country's interests
at the moment with hopes [reds will collapse and the USA will not fight] instead of real long term plans

basic united we stand divided we fall with no real movement to form a united axis EVER
Iagree about the complete lack of coordination. But Japan sending their fleet to the North Atlantic to participate in an invasion of Britain seems a bit far fetched.
yes but it is about the only way the axis could win an invasion in 1940 and win a one country vs the axis at a time war
japan has the ships esp the DD CA ships in numbers to do the job esp with their air cover and long range anti-shipping aircraft on carriers
long hard trip I suggest northern route as it is far shorter and less risk of detection or interception
with red icebreaker help but BB's should be good icebreakers also even if their BB are fair to poor vs the english fleet keep the fleet away with airpower and the BB as flack defense as the super BB are not commissioned yet in 40
only far fetched totally committed extreme risk ventures will win WW2 for the axis
they tryed hope the reds will fall QUICKLY while we fight the english trick and FAILED
and japan tried to knock out the USA and HOPE we sued for peace that failed also

rerunning harder with more stuff will not work as they do not have more men or equipment or trucks or supplys
japan did have a fleet very capable of taking on and perhaps out the english with total german and italy support and a bit of luck

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Takao
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Takao » 29 Feb 2020 00:25

nota wrote:
28 Feb 2020 22:10
corbulo wrote:
27 Feb 2020 14:10
nota wrote:
27 Feb 2020 00:13
they lost when they did not unite with the other axis nations with an over all plan and a one country at a time limited war
england first then the reds not both at once then japan attacks the USA not the reds so no real help or common cause

if japan went all in and sent the fleet to attack and invade england with italian AND GERMANY in a united effort
the axis could have had a chance of winning and only after that was over then attacked the reds from both sides

the western allied powers were united with clear plans germany first then japan and massive aid to the reds from the west
the axis was a gang of country's each with a separate plan and agenda who seldom if ever cared about the best plan for the axis just
their country's interests
at the moment with hopes [reds will collapse and the USA will not fight] instead of real long term plans

basic united we stand divided we fall with no real movement to form a united axis EVER
Iagree about the complete lack of coordination. But Japan sending their fleet to the North Atlantic to participate in an invasion of Britain seems a bit far fetched.
yes but it is about the only way the axis could win an invasion in 1940 and win a one country vs the axis at a time war
japan has the ships esp the DD CA ships in numbers to do the job esp with their air cover and long range anti-shipping aircraft on carriers
long hard trip I suggest northern route as it is far shorter and less risk of detection or interception
with red icebreaker help but BB's should be good icebreakers also even if their BB are fair to poor vs the english fleet keep the fleet away with airpower and the BB as flack defense as the super BB are not commissioned yet in 40
only far fetched totally committed extreme risk ventures will win WW2 for the axis
they tryed hope the reds will fall QUICKLY while we fight the english trick and FAILED
and japan tried to knock out the USA and HOPE we sued for peace that failed also

rerunning harder with more stuff will not work as they do not have more men or equipment or trucks or supplys
japan did have a fleet very capable of taking on and perhaps out the english with total german and italy support and a bit of luck
Too many problems with this...
1. The A6M Zero is only entering service in 1940, as is the D3A Val. The aircraft then in use, the A5M & D1A were not long-ranged. The Japanese will have nowhere near enough to outfit all or even some of their carriers. Also, Shokaku & Zuikaku are not yet commissioned.

2. Battleships are not icebreakers, their bows are Not that well armored. Further, their outboard propellers will be subject to damage from the ice.

3. Japan will not strip her fleet and leave her holdings & the Home Islands defenceless to US incursions.

4. Germany does not have the bunker oil reserves to fuel the German & Italian fleet...How then, will Germany fuel the additional Japanese Fleet?

5. Japan also greatly desires not to get dragged into A European War, and made this quite clear to Germany during Tripartite Pact discussions in 1939 & 1940. The Japanese are looking out for there own best interests, not Germany's or Italy's. Which is why the Pact was not signed in 1939, and what was signed in September, 1940 was a watered down version of the original.

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Takao
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Takao » 29 Feb 2020 02:27

I would also raise the question:

If the entire might of the Luftwaffe did not defeat England, why do you expect a few hundred more, mostly older, IJN aircraft to do the trick?

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by nota » 29 Feb 2020 22:10

alone no but maybe tip the balance to a possible win at sea with support from the axis aircraft in europe
add in the DD's with longlance and CL's too plus every euro axis warship only then does sealion have a chance
maybe late 40 early 41 would allow the newer aircraft in greater numbers but no arctic passage then

japan could still buy fuel up to late july 41
why they needed to up the war in china and invade vietnam is typical one nation putting short term above the axis world war interests
japan only hope is a real allied axis putting all the forces in action to knock out england doing a quick peace with an unoccupied england
so the USA has no war to join or reason for one and the axis has access to world trade and fuel
only then do they have the ability to attack the reds and maybe win that also if totally committed



yes japan would not do it I understand no axis nation was even committed to a common goal or plan
japan had no reason to fear a USA attack so could do it but yes I understand very unlikely
the point is not just the germans but the axis it self was the no win flaw in a world war
outside the minor eastern euro guys who had no real choice in the russia invasion from their soil
that is exactly why the war was a total no win no chance to even tie for the axis
they had no real long term united efforts just random attacks by mostly single nations
italy vs greeks is a classic example yes the germans got it done for them but no planned beforehand operation
or even notice that italy would start a new war
that is simply no way to win a world war

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Takao
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Takao » 02 Mar 2020 20:09

nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
alone no but maybe tip the balance to a possible win at sea with support from the axis aircraft in europe
Very unlikely. If the entire Luftwaffe was unable to defeat Britain, a few hundred more, mostly outdated aircraft, will not tip the balance. Further, all Japanese aircraft lost would be irreplaceable for the duration of the battle. Kido Butai would only get weaker & less useful.

nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
add in the DD's with longlance and CL's too plus every euro axis warship only then does sealion have a chance
The DDs with Long Lance were not particularly effective in the early war long distance battles.

Japanese light cruisers were WW1 designs, that were outdated by 1940. Had the Japanese not been so short on warships, they would have been scrapped. Perhapsb you are thinking of the much better heavy cruisers.


nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
maybe late 40 early 41 would allow the newer aircraft in greater numbers but no arctic passage then
Maybe, but would the pilots have had enough time in type to use their aircraft effectively? Remember, that at Pearl Harbor, the Shokaku & Zuikaku were limited to high-altitude bombing, as they were not considered experienced enough to carry out the more demanding torpedo bombing.

nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
japan could still buy fuel up to late july 41
Mostly unrefined crude oil. They still had to bring it home and refine it.

nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
why they needed to up the war in china and invade vietnam is typical one nation putting short term above the axis world war interests
There were no collective interests in the Axis. Each was out for their own gain. The only reason the Germans wanted Japan in the Axis was to fitment trouble in the Pacific to occupy the Americans there instead of Europe.


nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
japan only hope is a real allied axis putting all the forces in action to knock out england doing a quick peace with an unoccupied england
so the USA has no war to join or reason for one and the axis has access to world trade and fuel
only then do they have the ability to attack the reds and maybe win that also if totally committed
Problem is...Japan cannot attack Britain or it's colonies and expect the US to stay out or at least embargo her oil. This puts the Japanese Navy half a world away, out of fuel, out of supply, and with no way to repair and refit. Not to mention leaving Japan and her territories wide open to US attack.

nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
japan had no reason to fear a USA attack so could do it but yes I understand very unlikely
Japan had no fear of a US attack, because she had a powerful navy between her and the US. Take that away and Japan has every right to be fearful of a US attack.


nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
the point is not just the germans but the axis it self was the no win flaw in a world war
outside the minor eastern euro guys who had no real choice in the russia invasion from their soil
that is exactly why the war was a total no win no chance to even tie for the axis
they had no real long term united efforts just random attacks by mostly single nations
italy vs greeks is a classic example yes the germans got it done for them but no planned beforehand operation
or even notice that italy would start a new war
that is simply no way to win a world war
Yes, that was the Axis problem...Each nation was looking out for its own interests. But, then again, it was formed with no common goal in mind - other than to put fear into the US & USSR.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by nota » 03 Mar 2020 19:31

the other missing semi-axis nation in 1940 is the russians
an arctic route would require their cooperation based on the real german ship
that with russian icebreaker help did do the arctic route to japan in 1940

IF and yes it it a huge if the reds allow japan to ship supplys to europe via their RR
that would allow resupply on a limited basis and if japan dared new aircraft could be be shipped also
there are refinery's in europe to refuel the remaining fleet likely smaller after battle with england
and machine shops and dry docks to repair/refit damaged ships

and while japan may have fears the isolationist USA is not going to attack them in 1940 esp before the fall election
we do not have the army or supplys to do it nor the will politically so not a creditable fear

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Peter89 » 03 Mar 2020 20:56

Just be aware that the British Empire / Commonwealth had to fight everywhere in 1940/1941 and this presented a bigger threat to them than a frontal attack on the isles which they could most likely repell with their air defence system. It would (and did) make more sense for the Japanese to attack British possessions in Asia.

nota
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by nota » 04 Mar 2020 05:43

Peter89 wrote:
03 Mar 2020 20:56
Just be aware that the British Empire / Commonwealth had to fight everywhere in 1940/1941 and this presented a bigger threat to them than a frontal attack on the isles which they could most likely repell with their air defence system. It would (and did) make more sense for the Japanese to attack British possessions in Asia.
well their record against landed jap troops was not very good
they lost hong kong singapore burma in quick order several capital ships also

1940 brits had swordfish to attack shipping but never did that against a CAP with results
FAILED TOTALLY IN THE CHANNEL DASH
real world not so much evidence there for air defense claimed to be repelling invasions
or beating them on land

if the invasion is a success no need for taking asian areas
they get them loss free at the peace talks table

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 04 Mar 2020 12:25

nota wrote:
29 Feb 2020 22:10
alone no but maybe tip the balance to a possible win at sea with support from the axis aircraft in europe
add in the DD's with longlance and CL's too plus every euro axis warship only then does sealion have a chance
maybe late 40 early 41 would allow the newer aircraft in greater numbers but no arctic passage then

japan could still buy fuel up to late july 41
why they needed to up the war in china and invade vietnam is typical one nation putting short term above the axis world war interests
japan only hope is a real allied axis putting all the forces in action to knock out england doing a quick peace with an unoccupied england
so the USA has no war to join or reason for one and the axis has access to world trade and fuel
only then do they have the ability to attack the reds and maybe win that also if totally committed



yes japan would not do it I understand no axis nation was even committed to a common goal or plan
japan had no reason to fear a USA attack so could do it but yes I understand very unlikely
the point is not just the germans but the axis it self was the no win flaw in a world war
outside the minor eastern euro guys who had no real choice in the russia invasion from their soil
that is exactly why the war was a total no win no chance to even tie for the axis
they had no real long term united efforts just random attacks by mostly single nations
italy vs greeks is a classic example yes the germans got it done for them but no planned beforehand operation
or even notice that italy would start a new war
that is simply no way to win a world war
The Axis was something artificial : they had no common aims,and this was caused by the fact that Japan was located in Asia, Germany in Europe and that Italy was only interested in the Mediterranean .

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Globalization41 » 06 Mar 2020 02:27

[From ljadw, The Axis was something artificial: they had no common aims, and this was caused by the fact that Japan was located in Asia, Germany in Europe and that Italy was only interested in the Mediterranean .] … Stalin would have joined the Axis in hopes of avoiding Hitler's invasion. Both Stalin and Hitler were spheres-of-influence strategically, except Hitler wanted a land-locked empire at the expense of the Soviet Union. Stalin favored the Czar's previous foreign policy of absorbing border regions when possible, including Finland and the Turkish Straits. … Japan bogged down in China. The Russians steamrolled overextended Japanese expeditionary forces in Asia. A southward expansion of Tokyo's empire was given priority. The nonaggression pact by Japan with Stalin was a hint to Hitler that enlisting the Soviets into the Axis might be a good idea. However, once Hitler invaded the U.S.S.R., Tokyo decided to expedite its already planned expansion southward to the warm-weather oil fields of the Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia). … Meanwhile, Hitler's war machine stalled before Moscow just as Japan launched a preemptive strike against the U.S. Navy in Hawaii. … … Tokyo could have taken the oil in Indonesia by bypassing the U.S. presence in the Philippines (which flanked the long sea lanes from Japan to the Dutch East Indies). The British were too weak from fighting the European war to stop Japan in the Pacific. Would Congress have declared war on Japan if the Japanese had ignored the U.S. and instead only invaded British Malaysia on the way to Indonesia's oil?

Globalization41.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Takao » 06 Mar 2020 20:14

Globalization41 wrote:
06 Mar 2020 02:27
[From ljadw, The Axis was something artificial: they had no common aims, and this was caused by the fact that Japan was located in Asia, Germany in Europe and that Italy was only interested in the Mediterranean .] … Stalin would have joined the Axis in hopes of avoiding Hitler's invasion. Both Stalin and Hitler were spheres-of-influence strategically, except Hitler wanted a land-locked empire at the expense of the Soviet Union. Stalin favored the Czar's previous foreign policy of absorbing border regions when possible, including Finland and the Turkish Straits. … Japan bogged down in China. The Russians steamrolled overextended Japanese expeditionary forces in Asia. A southward expansion of Tokyo's empire was given priority. The nonaggression pact by Japan with Stalin was a hint to Hitler that enlisting the Soviets into the Axis might be a good idea. However, once Hitler invaded the U.S.S.R., Tokyo decided to expedite its already planned expansion southward to the warm-weather oil fields of the Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia). … Meanwhile, Hitler's war machine stalled before Moscow just as Japan launched a preemptive strike against the U.S. Navy in Hawaii. … … Tokyo could have taken the oil in Indonesia by bypassing the U.S. presence in the Philippines (which flanked the long sea lanes from Japan to the Dutch East Indies). The British were too weak from fighting the European war to stop Japan in the Pacific. Would Congress have declared war on Japan if the Japanese had ignored the U.S. and instead only invaded British Malaysia on the way to Indonesia's oil?

Globalization41.
Hitler wanted the Soviets in the Axis long before the Japanese Soviet Non-Agression Pact...However, he was unwilling to pay the Soviet asking price to join. The Japanese joined because they wanted German help to reach an agreement with the Soviets regarding China. This fell apart, when the German-Soviet relations deteriorated rapidly in late-40. - early 41.

Tokyo had been looking South for sometime at the instigation of the Germans - After the Germans failed to bring Britain to terms following the fall of France. Germany attacked the USSR without informing Japan, catching Japan offbase, as the Japanese were marshalling their forces to strike South.

Politically, Japan could have bypassed the Philippines to get at Malaya & the DEI. Militarily, they could not take such a risk.

Would congress have declared war. Probably, but not certain, the US was less isolationist when it came to Japan & the Pacific.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Globalization41 » 07 Mar 2020 05:20

[Hitler wanted the Soviets in the Axis long before the Japanese Soviet Non-Aggression Pact.] … Hitler only teased and hinted at the possibility of Stalin joining the Axis. German intelligence planted much disinformation alleging Hitler was aiming to control his Generals, who were straining at the leash to invade Russia. Stalin had spies everywhere relaying this German disinformation to Moscow. … The Soviet dictator once had problems with his generals; maybe Hitler had the same deal. … Only Hitler knew what he was going to do. There were plenty of rumors. By the time of the Soviet-Japanese pact (and coincident to the Balkans blitz) an alarmed Stalin switched his strategy away from playing hard to get. The Japanese pact signaled Stalin was ready to sign up with Hitler and possibly even the Axis. … … The Japanese decided to move south at least by early 1941. It was in all the newspapers at the start of the baseball season. If Stalin missed the reports, his agents in Japan added their reports. … But there still were numerous false news reports. … The Japanese wanted to neutralize the Soviets by letting them into the Axis. Hitler was cool to that idea, but did not reveal his invasion plans. Japan went ahead and signed a cooperation agreement with Stalin. Hitler didn't object. Japan assumed it had the green light for southward expansion. They probably would have headed south anyway, but it was nice to know that Hitler was ok with it. Meanwhile, Stalin wanted to believe Hitler was opposed to war with the U.S.S.R. … … The formation of the Axis was originally intended to be an anti-Stalin coalition. Rumors that Stalin might join the Axis therefore alerted the media. … [… the US was less isolationist when it came to Japan & the Pacific.] … F.D.R. did not want war with Japan. It would have been a distraction from his opposition to Nazism. After Hitler declared war on the U.S., Japan became priority No. 2 for Roosevelt.

Globalization41.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 07 Mar 2020 09:11

The Japanese-Soviet Pact did not mean that Japan had decided to go south .The reason for the pact was to isolate China and to eliminate the spectre of war with the SU .The Pact dated from April 1941 and the need to go south appeared only in July,after the American oil embargo .
Japan's generals, when pressed for an explanation why they were unable to finish the war in China,gave as reason ( better :excuse ) the help China received from abroad ( a feeble excuse ) .THAT's why they were going to Indo-China ,to intercept western transports to China, THAT's why they tried to finish German weapon transports to the KMT, THAT's why they signed a pact with the SU.
They hoped that China would give up if it was cut from foreign aid .
My opinion is that even without foreign aid,China would continue the fighting ;it would never compromise with Japan : things as the Rape of Nanking would make any compromise impossible .

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Globalization41 » 07 Mar 2020 16:30

There were political splits in Japan. As the war in China bogged down, a Pacific empire looked like a better and better idea. Japan needed oil. It depended on the U.S. for oil. Japan assumed it might be cut off from U.S. oil. Tokyo calculated a year or two reserve. The move south would be an insurance policy against an American embargo. The Japanese pact with Moscow facilitated the move south if it kept the Soviets from distracting Japan. It would be even better for Japan if the Soviets joined the Axis and agreed to a spheres of influence pact. Japan wasn't expecting Hitler's invasion of Russia. It looked like the Soviets would be KOed. … During the summer of '41, Japan reinforced its presence in French Indo-China (Vietnam) on the way to the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies. Roosevelt restricted oil exports to Tokyo. Japan then expedited its contingency plans to size the tropical oil fields and neutralize the U.S. fleet.

Globalization41.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by AbollonPolweder » 25 Apr 2020 17:37

hienz wrote:
21 Sep 2002 19:42
Evening all,
Any opions out there about at what point Germany lost ww2.
...
Just version!
Germany lost the war that day when Hitler decided that he had already won it. This happened on July 4, 1941. We read KTB OKW:
https://archive.org/stream/kriegstagebu ... 0/mode/2up
“Ich versuche mich dauernd in die Lage des Feindes zu versetzen. Praktisch hat er diesen Krieg schon verloren. Es ist gut, das wir russische Panzer und Luftwaffe gleich zu Anfang zerschlagen haben. Die Russen koennen sie nicht mehr ersetzen.”
"“I constantly try to put myself in the enemy's position. In practice, he has already lost this war. It is good that we smashed Russian tanks and the Air Force right from the start. The Russians can no longer replace them. “

Perhaps Hitler can be considered a good strategist. But, unfortunately for him, he was also a dictator. And dictators need to prove their superiority from time to time. So in early July 1941, he decided to show to all his generals and marshals who was in Germany the main specialist in the war. To be continued ...
https://sites.google.com/site/krieg1941undnarod/
Better to lose with a clever than with a fool to find

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