At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
Zapphod
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Zapphod » 02 Nov 2012 05:04

Well I think they lost the war on 1st September 1939 the day they started it.

My opinion is that it was a war they were never going to win.

The Navy was not ready for war, the Army had not completed its mechanisation, the economy was not ready for war and Germany was industrially incapable of supporting a protracted war.

I guess if I had to pick a time that it should have become obvious they were not going to win the war it would have been at the conclusion of the battle of Moscow and the Russian counter offensives when it became clear that the Soviet Union was not going to collapse and that it was going to become a war of attrition.

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At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by nebelwerferXXX » 02 Nov 2012 15:07

Hitler's declaration of war to the USA.

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 02 Nov 2012 15:23

end of june 1940

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phylo_roadking
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by phylo_roadking » 03 Nov 2012 00:48

July 22nd, 1940....

That night, Lord Halifax and Sefton "Tom" Delmar, formerly the leading foreign correspondent in Berlin and always thought by the Nazis to be in their pocket, both broadcast on the BBC rejecting all Hitler's peace utterances of the previous four weeks. Bill Shirer was at the Rundfunkhaus in Berlin to broadcast to the U.S., and it turned out that the Party bigwigs had gathered there to hear the British reaction to Hitler's most recent overture, the 19th July Reichstag speech.

Halifax's speech was somewhat polite....Tom Delmar's was apparently less so :lol: Shirer records that they were aghast at the British reaction, couldn't believe that they hadn't seen the sense of the Fuhrer's offer...

Whether genuine or not - the last of Hitler's overtures had been rejected, and he moved forward with Directive No. 16...and in the subsequent Battle of Britain and "postponement" of Sealion, Germany met its first reversals...
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bf109 emil
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by bf109 emil » 06 Nov 2012 07:34

March 15 1939...once Germany violated the Munich Pact, her ability to resolve issues diplomatically ended and thus she had no choice but to continue on a fighting once war began with no means to end it, other then conquering her foes, something Germany lacked the ability to accomplish.

Exlurker
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Exlurker » 30 Nov 2012 04:56

Wow...there were alot of "interesting" people posting here. back in 2002.

Interesting to see that Qvist's "pre-Tooze" assessment falls at odds with his "post-Tooze" assessment.

FWIW? '

I ascribe to the viewpoint that they lost it the minute they "started it" (i.e. refused to back down vis-a-vis Poland).

Judicious amounts of hindsight in effect.

Dig a little deeper (politically/economically) and I'd even support the idea that Hitler was hooped as early as March of '39, when he took the "rump" of Czechoslovakia.

OR MAYBE? It was when Hitler was told by Dipl. Ing. Messerschmitt that the 262 could carry bombs...yeah that had to be it!
Undoubtedly the turning point of WWII.

Economics, people...

What is that old adage about amateurs, tactics, professionals, logistics etc?

And WHERE do logistics start?

At the heart of a nations economic base.

Funny stuff.

To the "necromancer"? Read "Wages of Destruction" and get back to us :welcome:

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one battalion of Tiger tanks.

Post by nebelwerferXXX » 01 Dec 2012 06:02

When Hitler said about the Tiger tank during the capture of Kharkov in 1943. 'One battalion is worth an ordinary Panzer division'.

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RJ55
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by RJ55 » 01 Dec 2012 11:41

After the failure/aborting of Sealion, Hilter should have poured an army group, with two Panzer groups, into the middle east [after capturing Malta, Crete etc at all costs]. Once Egypt was gained, then on tto the oilfields of Arabia, persia etc. With the gaining of the mid-east oil, Germany's major strategic weakness was solved. Historically, the Axis never held more than about 4% of the oil that was eventually available to the allies [once the USA & USSR joined].

So, with the oil, the USSR would have been feasable. Main effort in the North and centre, taking Lenningrad in cooperation with the Fiins, then Moscow. Year after that, clean up the South.

Historically, the building of the Turplitz etc, deprived Germany of too much steel and oil that could have gone into panzers and trucks, and fuel for them.

The allies, despite their huge potential advantage in oil and manufacturing, played catch-up for the first two or three years of the war in a tactical and strategic sense. had Hitler done it as I said, he could have enjoyed interior lines, and plenty of oil and steel for mobile defence of continetal Europe and parts of Asia and the mid-east.

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LWD
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by LWD » 01 Dec 2012 16:41

RJ55 wrote:After the failure/aborting of Sealion, Hilter should have poured an army group, with two Panzer groups, into the middle east [after capturing Malta, Crete etc at all costs].
It's pretty clear that the Axis couldn't support a force of that size in Africa or the Mid East. It's also questionable that they had the airborne troops necessary to capture both Crete and Malta.
Once Egypt was gained, then on tto the oilfields of Arabia, persia etc.
This has been discussed on these boards many times. It's pretty clear that this was beyond the capabilities of the Axis powers.
Historically, the building of the Turplitz etc, deprived Germany of too much steel and oil that could have gone into panzers and trucks, and fuel for them.
Is it? I think rather the converse is true. One has to look at the timing of things as well. One of the more serious constraints faced by the Germans was manpower for instance and the length of time it took to train soldiers and this does little to alleviate that.

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RJ55
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by RJ55 » 02 Dec 2012 02:03

LWD wrote:
RJ55 wrote:After the failure/aborting of Sealion, Hilter should have poured an army group, with two Panzer groups, into the middle east [after capturing Malta, Crete etc at all costs].
It's pretty clear that the Axis couldn't support a force of that size in Africa or the Mid East. It's also questionable that they had the airborne troops necessary to capture both Crete and Malta.
Once Egypt was gained, then on tto the oilfields of Arabia, persia etc.
This has been discussed on these boards many times. It's pretty clear that this was beyond the capabilities of the Axis powers.
Historically, the building of the Turplitz etc, deprived Germany of too much steel and oil that could have gone into panzers and trucks, and fuel for them.
Is it? I think rather the converse is true. One has to look at the timing of things as well. One of the more serious constraints faced by the Germans was manpower for instance and the length of time it took to train soldiers and this does little to alleviate that.
Well, for the Nazis could have struck up an agreement with Turkey, offerring threats and bribes. perhaps the Turks would have been in on the deal if Hitler gave them back some of their old empire. And if Hitler could have made a pact with turkey to defend her if Russia attacked, which was their main concern. So perhaps Crete could be by-passed anyway. And a deal with Franco to attack Gibralta.
Do you have any links to these old discussions?
In any case, Hilter lost his war with the invasion of the USSR. If the Med/MidEast option was impossible [which i don't think it was, except that Hitler was a continental thinker] then defeatand pacification of the USSR was impossibility squared.

Even if Hitler lost an army in the attempt, so long as he suceeded in gaining arabian oil, then an eventual axis defeat would have been far from certain. Because then he would have held most of the world's oil.

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LWD
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by LWD » 02 Dec 2012 03:06

RJ55 wrote: Well, for the Nazis could have struck up an agreement with Turkey, offerring threats and bribes. perhaps the Turks would have been in on the deal if Hitler gave them back some of their old empire. And if Hitler could have made a pact with turkey to defend her if Russia attacked, which was their main concern. So perhaps Crete could be by-passed anyway. And a deal with Franco to attack Gibralta.
Do you have any links to these old discussions?
Turkey doesn't help logistics wise in North Africa at all and not enough in the ME unless her rail lines are significantly upgraded. What does Hitler have to bribe them with? Turkey was also not really interested in trying to reestablish the Turkish Empire. Consider also that the Mid East wasn't producing that much oil at the time and in order for it to be useful it still has to get back to Germany not a trivial task in and of itself.
As for some of the other discussions see:
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... =Gibralter
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... =Gibralter
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... =Gibralter
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... rth+africa
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... rth+africa
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... rth+africa
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... a#p1667063
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... a#p1661957
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... a#p1605503
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... a#p1494914
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... a#p1362056
Some may be more relevant than others and there are others that I didn't list.

Even if Hitler lost an army in the attempt, so long as he suceeded in gaining arabian oil, then an eventual axis defeat would have been far from certain. Because then he would have held most of the world's oil.[/quote]

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phylo_roadking
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by phylo_roadking » 02 Dec 2012 03:08

Even if Hitler lost an army in the attempt, so long as he suceeded in gaining arabian oil, then an eventual axis defeat would have been far from certain. Because then he would have held most of the world's oil.
1/ he has to hold it...and

2/ Most? What percentage of the world's petroleum products and oil was coming from the U.S. and Venezuela?

Or rather...reaching the British from the U.S. and Venezuela? ;)
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ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 02 Dec 2012 19:18

In 1940,world oil production was:293 million of tonnes
USA: 182.9 (62.45 %)
the rest of America:46.6 million (16 %)
Middle East :13 million (4.4 %)
SU :30.5 million (10 %)
There alsi is the point,that Germany was not short on oil in 1941:crude oil production :1.562 million ton,synthetics: 4.116,imports :2.807 Total :8.485 million ,more than in 1939

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LWD
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by LWD » 02 Dec 2012 19:35

ljadw wrote:... There alsi is the point,that Germany was not short on oil in 1941:crude oil production :1.562 million ton,synthetics: 4.116,imports :2.807 Total :8.485 million ,more than in 1939
The fact that they had more in 41 than in 39 doesn't mean that they weren't short of it. This is especially true if you look at the combined Italian German situation. Both the KM and the Italian Navy for instance were chronically short of oil. Demand also went up rather drastically in the latter half of 41.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 02 Dec 2012 21:50

If the Italian navy was short on oil in 1941,this does not mean that Germany was short on oil.
About the KM:there was a problem for the surface fleet (Bismarck,etc) but not for the UBoats,thus,the problem was limited,technical,and not general :the LW was not short on oil,and,Barbarossa did not fail because the oil production was insufficient .

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