Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

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tramonte
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Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by tramonte » 13 Feb 2020 22:11

According Krivosheev Soviet AFV losses during period of 1942-45 (May) were

1943: 23,500
1944: 23,800
1945: 13,700
------------------
total 61,000

But how to handle with this:

"TsAMO f 38 on11371 d 16 l11.13 (for the period of 43-45) gives: 83,920 Evacuated AFVs, 20,641 sent to Repair Depots and manufacturers, 63,279 evaluated as corrupted beyond repair.
1943: 32,539 evacuated material, 9,344 shipped away
1944: 29,009 AFVs evacuated from combat, 8,754 fixed at homeland repair depots, 16,129 dismantled
1945: 22,372 AFVs evacuated from combat, 2,543 shipped away for repair, 10,471 dismantled.
20,641 refurbished and reassigned, just to be potentially destroyed a second time."


Perhaps there were evacuated AFV's from period of (late?) 1942 and written off in 1943? Or/and then Krivosheev didn't count those AFV's written off after 9 May 45?

Now i just wonder how many tanks were so totally destroyed (or captured by Germans) that they were not even evacuated at all from the battlefield.

http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2018 ... or-part-1/
Last edited by tramonte on 14 Feb 2020 12:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Art » 14 Feb 2020 10:10

tramonte wrote:
13 Feb 2020 22:11
"TsAMO f 38 on11371 d 16 l11.13 (for the period of 43-45) gives: 83,920 Evacuated AFVs, 20,641 sent to Repair Depots and manufacturers, 63,279 evaluated as corrupted beyond repair.
I can bet any amount of money that the original source doesn't have the piece in red color. I believe wee have wrong conclusions caused by misunderstanding of original statistics:
viewtopic.php?f=79&t=221990

In a nutshell the Soviet Army distinguished between minor, medium and capital repair of vehicles. The first two were normally performed by maintenance units int he field, the capital repair - mostly by static or mobile repair factories in the rear. In essence the source says that 20 thousand tanks were shipped for capital repair to factories. Which doesn't says anything about the number of repairs performed by field units. In fact the bulk of repairs were performed in the field.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Stiltzkin » 14 Feb 2020 12:22

In a nutshell the Soviet Army distinguished between minor, medium and capital repair of vehicles. The first two were normally performed by maintenance units int he field, the capital repair - mostly by static or mobile repair factories in the rear. In essence the source says that 20 thousand tanks were shipped for capital repair to factories. Which doesn't says anything about the number of repairs performed by field units. In fact the bulk of repairs were performed in the field.
If an AFV is sent away, it is highly unlikely that it is in a condition of serving the unit in pursuing the combat mission. I assume the vast majority of vehicles did not just receive light damage. The figure however does not directly refer to Krivosheevs number of total vehicles written-off (which by the way was just rounded, nor are they complete). It is however a better metric to understand how many AFVs were actually messed up in action. Furthermore, Miles classification seems to be accurate, with only fewer exceptions. He did not want to know how the Soviet services are structured, rather he wanted to compare German and Soviet losses, which is also a misunderstanding of his posts.
I can bet any amount of money that the original source doesn't have the piece in red color.
An evacuated vehicle can correspond to a Totalausfall, but I agree that I should have used another term that distinguishes between damage classes.
But how to handle with this:
I apologize, it should have been to "be potentially evaluated" as such. They are a total loss, because they are lost to the unit, thus reducing its strength (temporarily or permanently). I do not think I can correct the sentence in that comment section anymore though.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by tramonte » 14 Feb 2020 13:11

Art wrote:
14 Feb 2020 10:10

In a nutshell the Soviet Army distinguished between minor, medium and capital repair of vehicles. The first two were normally performed by maintenance units int he field, the capital repair - mostly by static or mobile repair factories in the rear. In essence the source says that 20 thousand tanks were shipped for capital repair to factories. Which doesn't says anything about the number of repairs performed by field units. In fact the bulk of repairs were performed in the field.
So is there any available monthly or quarter data of AFVs which were not written off and scrapped but still "alive" where ever they might have been: units (including maintenance units), capital repair, reserve, training etc....? Then what needed is of course the inventory of mid (or early ) June 1941 and mid May 1945 plus of course production figures + lend lease numbers.
"Military history is nothing but a tissue of fictions and legends, only a form of literary invention; reality counts for very little in such affair."

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Stiltzkin » 14 Feb 2020 13:37

So is there any available monthly or quarter data of AFVs which were not written off and scrapped but still "alive" where ever they might have been: units (including maintenance units), capital repair, reserve, training etc....? Then what needed is of course the inventory of mid (or early ) June 1941 and mid May 1945 plus of course production figures + lend lease numbers.
If I recall correctly, then Syropyatov and Radzievskii listed repair rates and losses in various tank operations. The rate fluctuated in a range between 0.4-0.68. While many vehicles were repaired, there were still instances in which units suffered a complete reduction of their stock in relation to their original strength (and beyond). Most of these losses incurred past 43 (we do not have 41-42), so of tactical nature, since the Wehrmacht was in retreat.

Another thing: I doubt that the listed figure of "evacuated" actually falls under these categories. The total number of repairs listed by the units must have exceeded those considerably, if they were of "light" nature. For instance, in August 44, 6th TA conducted 1,272 overhauls in 11 days.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Art » 14 Feb 2020 14:04

tramonte wrote:
14 Feb 2020 13:11
Then what needed is of course the inventory of mid (or early ) June 1941 and mid May 1945 plus of course production figures + lend lease numbers.
Approximate estimate here:
viewtopic.php?f=55&t=240652&p=2211757
Numbers in June 1941 - about 23 000. Production and LL by May 1945 - about 104 500. Tanks and SP guns available by early May 1945 - about 27-28 000. About 1000 given to allied armies. Which leaves approximately 99 000 total write-offs. There are some issues with Krivosheev but they don't exceed several %.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Art » 14 Feb 2020 15:37

Stiltzkin wrote:
14 Feb 2020 12:22
If an AFV is sent away, it is highly unlikely that it is in a condition of serving the unit in pursuing the combat mission. I assume the vast majority of vehicles did not just receive light damage. The figure however does not directly refer to Krivosheevs number of total vehicles written-off (which by the way was just rounded, nor are they complete). It is however a better metric to understand how many AFVs were actually messed up in action.
Well, repairable losses and irreparable are different things. Krivosheev obviously gives irreparable (write offs). There is no contradiction in having other numbers for repairable losses of AFVs.
The total number of repairs listed by the units must have exceeded those considerably, if they were of "light" nature
IIRC I've already posted that. Maintenance services of the 1 Ukrainian Front repaired 15 139 tanks and SP guns (10.01-20.04.1945), of them 2/3 were minor repairs. 2306 were evacuated during the same period
https://pamyat-naroda.ru/documents/view/?id=111538220
Again, I don't understand that focus on "evacuations". It's neither the number of irreparable losses nor the number of repairable. It just some independent and arbitrary quantity.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Stiltzkin » 14 Feb 2020 16:50

Well, repairable losses and irreparable are different things. Krivosheev obviously gives irreparable (write offs). There is no contradiction in having other numbers for repairable losses of AFVs.
That is what I am saying, this comparison has little to do with Krivosheevs loss figure per se (which is just one component). I am using an upper boundary for all potentially damaged or destroyed or dismantled or written-off vehicles. Additionally, only half of the Soviet tank force was at the fronts and some AFVs remained in the rebuilding plants. The repair/loss ratio (T-34s) for 1944 for instance was approx. 0.6, pretty similiar to acceptances figures, so the notion that the evacuated vehicles must have been in good condition may only apply to those vehicles which broke down (this only increased the longer the operation lasted and the further a unit distanced itself from the services and station), I would not be so optimistic about the other group. If we combine Totalausfälle with any (temporary) battle damage, the Wehrmacht sustained up to 90,000 losses (this is not a tank versus tank ratio, just factoring in every little dent).
Again, I don't understand that focus on "evacuations". It's neither the number of irreparable losses nor the number of repairable. It just some independent and arbitrary quantity.
Not quite, it includes AFVs that are both repairable and irrecoverable and judging by the lethality of the weapon systems involved and destroyed/damaged ratio many of these are losses, eventually useful for the approximation of both belligerents terminology. We know that the number of German AFVs that were sent away was comparatively low, this was quite different in the Soviet army.
2306 were evacuated during the same period
This is quite a staggering number. If the distribution was similiar we can make a rough estimate: It would indicate that 600-700 of these vehicles were potentially redistributed, roughly the equivalent of the AFVs that were sent away to the zone of interior and repaired (referring to a slightly longer period), in the entire German Army.
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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by tramonte » 14 Feb 2020 17:12

Art wrote:
14 Feb 2020 14:04

Numbers in June 1941 - about 23 000. Production and LL by May 1945 - about 104 500. Tanks and SP guns available by early May 1945 - about 27-28 000. About 1000 given to allied armies. Which leaves approximately 99 000 total write-offs. There are some issues with Krivosheev but they don't exceed several %.
So the Wikipedia figures are not correct? I took 50% of 1941 figures and then all 1942-45 and got total ~113,300 produced light, medium and heavy AFVs. Then there are lend lease numbers of AFVs at least 10,000 AFVs (5,218 from UK and ~7,000 from US, likely 2,000 sunk by Germans). Total 123,000 produced/lend-lease. So if Soviet tank park increased from 23,000 to 28,000 and 1,000 was given to Soviet allies then there are about 117,000 AFVs written off from June 41 to May 45.
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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Art » 14 Feb 2020 20:45

tramonte wrote:
14 Feb 2020 17:12
So the Wikipedia figures are not correct? I took 50% of 1941 figures and then all 1942-45 and got total ~113,300 produced light, medium and heavy AFVs.
By what date exactly? Soviet production from 1.7.41 to 1.6.45 was 95252 tanks and SP guns:
http://armchairgeneral.com/rkkaww2/weap ... #tspplants
LL deliveries (actually accepted) - 11 171.
So total about 106 400. Of them some 2500 were produced during May 45, on the other hand several hundred were produced in June 1941. So were arrive to 104+ thousand received during 1.6.41-1.5.45.
On the other hand I've counted 106 898 tanks and SP guns received from production or LL 1.6.41-1.6.45 based on monthly production figures (excluding M-15/17 hafltracks):
download/file.php?mode=view&id=443401
minus ~2500 production in May 45 = 104 something thousand.
Frankly I don't have time to repeat these calculations again, but as I remember it was made the right way.
There are some discrepancies in production statistics, there is also a a question of how many Shermans arrived after May 1945 (some probably did), there were losses after 1 May 1945 but all that doesn't change the overall balance drastically.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Stephan » 15 Feb 2020 10:46

Krivoshenko gives roughly 60 t, Isamo gives 63 t as beyond repair. This is exactly the same number, for all practical purposes.
Ergo, Krivoshenko gives the numbers not total losses of any kind, but these definitely destroyed...

Nice to see different sources do agree. :)

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by tramonte » 15 Feb 2020 11:03

So the Wikipedia is using likely wrong figures especially for 1945?
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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Art » 15 Feb 2020 11:42

Again, for what period? I counted production up to April 45 inclusively. Naturally, if you take months after April you've got larger figures.

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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by tramonte » 16 Feb 2020 15:20

Art wrote:
15 Feb 2020 11:42
Again, for what period? I counted production up to April 45 inclusively. Naturally, if you take months after April you've got larger figures.

Wikipedia is likely giving whole 1945 production (or production until August?) claiming that Soviet U produced 2,966 light, 16,606 medium and 3,100 heavy combat armor. Source is: Zaloga and Ness ( 2003), Red Army hand book,
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Re: Conflict or not? Krivosheev's Soviet AFV losses 1943-45?

Post by Art » 17 Feb 2020 17:22

Wiki numbers are messed up completely and I can't figure out why SU-76 is counted both as light and medium vehicle at the same time. Here are production stats by months
AFV production 1945.png
I count 10 239 tanks and SP guns produced until 1.5.45 and 12 864 until 1.6.45. There are discrepancies between numbers in different books, but not altogether dramatic.
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