Soviet civilian deaths during the war. 6.8 or 18.3 million?

[thorwald77]

Soviet WW2 Population losses
Estimated actual 1960

Summary

• Military losses 9,928
  Civilian losses 6,074
  Excess deaths occupied zone 3,998
  Subtotal 20,000
  Excess deaths interior 3,000
  Total per Urlanis 23,000

1960 Balance-details
KIA 5,187.1
Non combat 541.9
Dow 1,100.3
MIA 500.0
NKVD border/security 159.1
Pows 4,455.6
Pows returned USSR (2,016.0)
Military losses 9,928.0

Balance of military losses 956.8
Military convicts 557.7
Civilians Killed 4,500.0
Leningrad 641.0
Stalingrad bombing 40.0
Emmigration (622.0)
Civilian losses 6,073.5

Excess deaths occupied zone 3,998.5

Excess deaths interior 3,000

Total 23,000.0

[Art]

Methodically ADK are two heads above their critics. I don't see any reasons for revision of their results.

[thorwald77]

Methodically ADK are two heads above their critics. I don't see any reasons for revision of their results.

I agree so lets look at ADK, it is apparent that Zemeskov was presenting the 1960 version of losses.

[thorwald77]

Soviet population losses
Estimated actual 1995

Summary
Military 10,833.0
Civilian 7,422.0
Excess deaths 8,358.0
Total per ADK 26,613.0

1995 Balance details
KIA 5,226.8
DOW 1,102.8
Non combat 555.5
Pows -Krivosheev 1,283.3
Pows-forced labor 2,164.3
MIA 500.0
Military losses 10,832.7

Civilians in military 91.2
Military convicts 557.7
Military deserters 376.3
Pows remained in west 180.0
Militia 146.0
Partisans 250.0
Civilians killed 4,500.0
Siege of Leningrad 658.0
Bombing of Stalingrad 40.0
2nd emmigration 622.0
Civilian losses 7,421.2

Excess deaths occupied zone 4,100.0
Excess deaths interior 3,600.0
Increase infant mortality 1,280.0
Less: 2nd emmigration (622.0)
Excess deaths 8,358.0

Total per ADK 26,613

ADK puts excess mortality at 9-10 million.
Source: Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991 p.436

Philimoshin puts excess mortality at 8.5 million.
Source:Ludskie Poteri 1995 p.126

[thorwald77]

ADK puts excess mortality at 9-10 million.
Source: Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991 p.436

Assuming losses were the official total of 27 million, ADKs estimate would include 17-18 million direct losses and 9-10 million excess deaths.

[Linkagain]

Back in the 1980's when the Russian Goverment published its offical 20 Volume register of deaths during the Great Patriotic War what are the figures?

[Pods]

Does ADK include any reference to a murder report or something like this?

Although Zemskov is not correct it seems to me that he has a point, there is a big difference between the death count and the total excess mortality.

The excess of civil mortality is also too high, especially when we have the figure of 1.3 million excess of infant mortality, which we know is one of the most vulnerable groups in this type of situation...

[thorwald77]

Here is my estimate what Soviet sources tell us about the Soviet population balance at the end of the war.

Population balance 1941-45(ADK)

• 7/1/1941 196,716
  Births 12,400
  Deaths (11,900)
  War losses (26,666)
  12/31/1945 170,550
  2nd emigration (622)
  1945 population 169,928

Population balance 1941-45

• Gosplan 7/1945 151,166
  Adj. 1939 census (2,957)
  Civilians abroad mid 1945 3,901
  Military 12,839
  NKVD 916
  Gulag 1,736
  Special settlers 2,330
  1945 population 169,931

Population balance 1941-45

• Gosplan 7/1941 199,920
  Census adj. 1939 (2,957)
  Increase population 41-45 500
  Increase Infant mortality 1,280
  Retured Poland (1,392)
  Tana Tuva 94
  Retured Poland (1,526)
  From Poland 518
  Za Karpathia 725
  War losses (26,613)
  ADK '12/31/45 170,549

Population balance 1941-45

• Kozuhrin 1/1941 198,712
  Retured Poland (1,392)
  Tana Tuva/Sakhalin 115
  Retured Poland (1,526)
  From Poland 518
  Za Karpathia 725
  War losses (26,600)
  ADK '12/31/45 170,552

War losses 1941-45(ADK)

• KIA 5,226.8
  DOW 1,102.8
  Non combat 555.5
  Pows -Krivosheev 1,283.3
  Pows-forced labor 2,164.3
  MIA 500.0
  Military losses 10,832.7
  
  Civilians in military 90.0
  Military convicts 557.7
  Military deserters 376.3
  Pows remained in west 180.0
  Militia 146.0
  Partisans 250.0
  Civilians killed 4,500.0
  Siege of Leningrad 658.0
  Bombing of Stalingrad 40.0
  2nd emmigration 622.0
  Civilian losses 7,420.0
  
  Excess deaths occupied zone 4,100.0
  Excess deaths interior 3,600.0
  Increase infant mortality 1,280.0
  Less: 2nd emmigration (622.0)
  Excess deaths 8,358.0
  
  Summary
  Military 10,833.0
  Civilian 7,422.0
  Excess deaths 8,358.0
  Total per ADK 26,613.0

These are my estimates of the estimated actual population balance using Soviet data.

The ADK study explains the methodology used to estimate births and deaths from 1941-45. This was available to Zemskov in 2012. He is a fine historian but unfortunately an numerical illiterate. I believe he was using older Soviet reports that were prepared prior to the 1959 census.

[thorwald77]

Here is my estimate of the Soviet breakdown of the postwar circa. 1946-59 population balance

• 1946-59 Balance
  Military losses 9,928
  Civilian losses 6,074
  Excess deaths occupied zone 3,998
  Subtotal 20,000
  Excess deaths interior 3,000
  Total per 23,000

1946-59 Balance-Details

• KIA 5,187.1
  Non combat 541.9
  Dow 1,100.3
  MIA 500.0
  NKVD border/security 159.0
  Pows 4,455.6
  Pows returned USSR (2,016.5)
  Military losses 9,927.4
  
  Military convicts 562.9
  Deserters 376.8
  Pows remained in west 179.9
  Militia 146.0
  Partisans 250.0
  Civilians Killed 4,500.0
  Leningrad 641.0
  Stalingrad bombing 40.0
  Emmigration (622.0)
  Civilian losses 6,074.6
  
  Excess deaths occupied zone 3,998.0
  Excess deaths interior 3,000.0
  Total 23,000.0

Post war population balance
1941 Population 200.0
Emigration (3.0)
War Losses (23.0)
1946 Balance 174.0
Does not include adj. of 3 K for overstatement of 1939 census

Loss due to emigration
Annexed territories 23.0
Emigration (3.0)
Net gain 20.0

Note Jean-Noël Biraben in 1957 writing in the Journal Population noted that the Soviets estimated the 1946 population at 174 million