How did Stalin respond to Churchill's warning about a Nazi invasion of the USSR?

[Cantankerous]

According to Cuban American blogger and human rights activist John Suarez, Winston Churchill repeatedly warned Stalin not to take the Führer at his word regarding Germany's pledge under the 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov Non-Aggression Pact not to invade the USSR given that Hitler had cheated on the Munich Pact by annexing Czechoslovakia, yet Stalin ignored Churchill's advice and ended up being caught off guard by Operation Barbarossa. Did anyone in Stalin's government pay attention to Churchill's warnings about an impending German invasion of the USSR, given that the final military plans for Operation Barbarossa were fleshed out by the German high command in December 1940?

[wm]

A warning isn't evidence especially if it comes from a hostile country as in that case Britain.
Stalin received many warnings but none of them was especially convincing.
And of course, Stalin's government had nothing to say in this till the boss had spoken.

[rcocean]

Stalin had spies inside the British government and one of them was feeding Soviet intelligence Ultra Information.The Red Orchestra spy network was doing the same from inside Germany. Throw in all the Soviet Spies surrounding FDR and Stalin had plenty of information on what the Germans were doing.

He didn't need Churchill.

[Steve]

Churchill sent this message to Stalin on April 3 1941 “I have sure information from a trusted agent that when the Germans thought they had got Yugoslavia in the net, that is to say after March 20, they began to move three out of five Panzer division from Rumania to southern Poland. The moment they heard of the Serbian revolution this movement was countermanded. Your Excellency will readily appreciate the significance of these facts”. It must have been thought that Stalin would easily be able to deduce what this meant.

Stafford Cripps the British ambassador in Moscow did not hand the message over till April 19 apparently because he thought the Soviets would see it as provocative. Cripps had been receiving information from other embassies with regard to a German attack and may have thought that Churchill’s warning was not specific enough. When he did hand the message over he included one from himself. “………. Judging by the many indications we have received from usually reliable sources ……….. a seizure by force of the sources of supply in the east is not a hypothesis at all but part of the planned German development of the war for the spring of this year”.

[Sheldrake]

Stalin had spies inside the British government and one of them was feeding Soviet intelligence Ultra Information.The Red Orchestra spy network was doing the same from inside Germany. Throw in all the Soviet Spies surrounding FDR and Stalin had plenty of information on what the Germans were doing.

He didn't need Churchill.

Who was the spy in Britain with Ultra access?

[Sheldrake]

According to Cuban American blogger and human rights activist John Suarez, Winston Churchill repeatedly warned Stalin not to take the Führer at his word regarding Germany's pledge under the 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov Non-Aggression Pact not to invade the USSR given that Hitler had cheated on the Munich Pact by annexing Czechoslovakia, yet Stalin ignored Churchill's advice and ended up being caught off guard by Operation Barbarossa. Did anyone in Stalin's government pay attention to Churchill's warnings about an impending German invasion of the USSR, given that the final military plans for Operation Barbarossa were fleshed out by the German high command in December 1940?

In the Road to Stralingrad John Erickson devotes a chapter ("Don't Panic, the boss knows all about it") to what Stalin had been told before 22 June 1941. In 1940 the British had given warnings about German intent. The Soviets reported these to the Germans with an assurance that Stalin had been observing German intentions and had not seen any "desire for Germany to engulf other countries". In March 1941 Sumner Wells the US under secretary of state had warned the Soviet Ambassador that the US had firm evidence of German intentions to attack. There was also information from various sources in Finland and Rumania of the German intention to attack as well as fairly accurate estimates of German troop levels on the Soviet border. Information passed to Stalin was organised into two categories "Reliable sources" and "doubtful source" According to the officer who handed the report to Stalin, the dictator fell on the reports from doubtful sources and accepted any information which supported his view that he did not need to do anything.

Erickson's analysis is that Stalin wanted to believe in the Nazi-Soviet pact and clung on to any evidence that Hitler would leave the USSR alone. John Erickson has been dead for 20 years, but his research and interpretation of Stalin and interactions with his generals was based on personal contact. I once had the privilege and pleasure of sitting next to him over dinner. A brilliant man who had the opportunity to meet many of the Red Army Generals in the 1960s.

" .. there is no substitute for having the late Marshal Koniev – spectacles perched on nose – read from his own personal notebook, detailing operational orders, his own personal instructions to select commanders and his tally of Soviet casualties."

I'd back John Erickson's interpretation.

[OpanaPointer]

Somewhere I have the USSR's official version of diplomatic exchanges pre-WWII.

[Der Alte Fritz]

Stalin had spies inside the British government and one of them was feeding Soviet intelligence Ultra Information.The Red Orchestra spy network was doing the same from inside Germany. Throw in all the Soviet Spies surrounding FDR and Stalin had plenty of information on what the Germans were doing.

He didn't need Churchill.

Who was the spy in Britain with Ultra access?

I think that he is referring to John Cairncross who was revealed as the 'Fifth Man'. He worked at Bletchley Park on the 'Tunny' material between 1942 and 1943 and his major coup was in relation to the Battle of Kursk. However he did not have access between 1940-1 although he did work in the Cabinet Office as a private secretary to Lord Hankey and had access to top level secrets.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/peop ... 76877.html

[Der Alte Fritz]

John Erickson has been dead for 20 years, but his research and interpretation of Stalin and interactions with his generals was based on personal contact. I once had the privilege and pleasure of sitting next to him over dinner. A brilliant man who had the opportunity to meet many of the Red Army Generals in the 1960s.

" .. there is no substitute for having the late Marshal Koniev – spectacles perched on nose – read from his own personal notebook, detailing operational orders, his own personal instructions to select commanders and his tally of Soviet casualties."

I'd back John Erickson's interpretation.

Oh, I am very envious of you
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2002/f ... humanities

John Erickson.jpg (57.64 KiB) Viewed 4337 times

[Sheldrake]

John Erickson has been dead for 20 years, but his research and interpretation of Stalin and interactions with his generals was based on personal contact. I once had the privilege and pleasure of sitting next to him over dinner. A brilliant man who had the opportunity to meet many of the Red Army Generals in the 1960s.

" .. there is no substitute for having the late Marshal Koniev – spectacles perched on nose – read from his own personal notebook, detailing operational orders, his own personal instructions to select commanders and his tally of Soviet casualties."

I'd back John Erickson's interpretation.

Oh, I am very envious of you
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2002/f ... humanities
John Erickson.jpg

He was a fascinating man to talk to. He told me that he did his PhD on Soviet armoured doctrine in the face of objections that he was not allowed to use any classified material. (He had been an Int corps NCO durign WW2) He completed his doctorate using open source material. He then went to teach at Manchester. At some point around 1962-63 someone called him at work and asked if he would take a call from the office of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. He told the caller to get lost, assuming it was a prank call from a colleague. (Brits do that sort of thing). A few hours later his wife called and said, yes Nikita Kruschev really would like a word with him and was offering him an opportunity to research in the Soviet Union.

This dinner was part of a conference on the development of military doctrine. Earlier that day I had sat in the lecfture hall listening to John Erickson and a German academic talking about Soviet and German doctrine in relation to Stalingrad. When it was time for questions a little old man stood up and asked his question. In those sorts of conferences the questioner introduced themself and the organisation they represent. e.g. Professor John Smith Kings College London. In His case the old man said "Henry Metelman, 22nd Panzer Division, I was at Stalingrad. Why did the Russians fight so hard? " Erickson pointed out that the Red army executed 15,000 of their own side...

[Sheldrake]

Stalin had spies inside the British government and one of them was feeding Soviet intelligence Ultra Information.The Red Orchestra spy network was doing the same from inside Germany. Throw in all the Soviet Spies surrounding FDR and Stalin had plenty of information on what the Germans were doing.

He didn't need Churchill.

Who was the spy in Britain with Ultra access?

I think that he is referring to John Cairncross who was revealed as the 'Fifth Man'. He worked at Bletchley Park on the 'Tunny' material between 1942 and 1943 and his major coup was in relation to the Battle of Kursk. However he did not have access between 1940-1 although he did work in the Cabinet Office as a private secretary to Lord Hankey and had access to top level secrets.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/peop ... 76877.html

According to John Hughes Wilson Stalin had much better sources, capable of answering a question set one morning with information from the evening situation briefing. I heard him argue that the Red Cell in OKW was Martin Bormann and a Luftwaffe signals officer.

[TheMarcksPlan]

The background of suspicions of the capitalist/imperialist powers is highly relevant here. Among other things, Churchill was publicly saying as late as 1937 that he preferred Nazism to Communism. Stalin would have been aware of British sentiment that Germany should be given in a free hand in the East anyway, suspicious that it had taken hold in Britain. The failure of prewar alliance talks and revelation of British/French plans to bomb Baku still rankled.

That's not, of course, to excuse Stalin's failure of judgement - he believed what he wanted to believe and perhaps what he felt was the only belief that offered him a chance of survival.