Russian Military losses

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 23 Jun 2018 07:20

I've got a copy of this journal issue and I can post the tables when I return from a leave (in a week or so).

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 23 Jun 2018 08:50

tramonte wrote: The movement and losses of officers of the Red Army was controlled by the Chief Personnel Directorate of the People’s Commissariat for Defense, which also created an alphabetical card file of permanent losses based on lists and reports. This card file is also preserved at TsAMO, and one cannot but agree that these two card files contain the most exact and complete information on personnel losses in the Great Patriotic War, because behind every report which caused a card to be written, at one time stood a live person, not an empty statistic.
....
Therefore, officer losses in the Great Patriotic War (killed, missing, died of wounds, illness, or in captivity) is around 1,100,000 persons.
The article didn't mention that but the first "head count" of officer casualties was made in the first after-war years using essentially the same name lists plus other sources and results were published in a (originally) classified book in 1963. I don't quite get why they needed to do the same job twice. Anyway "Military cadres of the Soviet state..." (1963) reported 1 010 thousand officers of the Red Army and about 10 thousand officers of the Navy dead due to enemy action or missing or declared dead. Ilyenkov gives a very rough estimate of 1 100 thousand officer casualties (including non-battle casualties - sickness, accidents etc). Not so much difference between them

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 30 Jun 2018 19:28

Ok, here are tables from the Ilyenkov's article (Voyenno-Istroicheskiy Arkhiv No.7(22), 2001)

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 02 Jul 2018 18:57

Here is an English translation of the summary by Illenkov which appeared below the table

Adding up all losses in the Armed Forces of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War, we have:
- losses of privates and sergeants in the Red Army, approximately 12,434,398;
- losses of officers in the Red Army, approximately 1,100,000;
- losses of naval personnel (officers and sailors) according to the Central Naval Archives in Gatchina, Leningradskaya Oblast, 154,771 (according to the book “Security Classification Removed”, page 133);
- losses in internal troops (NKVD), 97,700 (according to the book “Security Classification Removed”, page 129);
- losses in border troops 61,400 (according to the book “Security Classification Removed”, page 129).
We end up with a number for permanent losses of our Armed Forces in the Great Patriotic War of around 13,850,000 persons.

I have a copy of the Russian article can post if necessary

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 02 Jul 2018 23:46

What were Soviet War Dead? The pieces to the puzzle are in Krivosheev(2001 Russian ed) ,the 1993 ADK study and the 2000 analysis by Mikhalev which gives us an understanding of the problem. Ivlev and Zmeskov gives us data that helps us to solve the problem. When reviewing Russian military statistics I assume that they are feeding us дезинформация/disinformation. They are using маскировка/maskirovka to confuse and mislead the reader. :roll:

Summary of Losses
(1,000)
Military
KIA 5,226 A
Non- combat deaths 555 A
Died wounds 1,103 A
MIA/POW 4,900 A
Less Returned POWs (1,836) A
Border/Security 159 B
Convicted of offenses 994 C
Sent to hospital 1,046 D
Civilians in military 403 D
Subtotal Military 12,550

Civilian casualties
Civilians Killed 7,420 E
Died disease/famine 4,100 E
Siege Leningrad 641 F
2nd emigration 622 G
Increase Infant mortality 1,280 H
Subtotal civilians 14,063
Grand total 26,613 I

A. Krivosheev- 2001 Russian Ed p.237
B. Mikhalev 2000 p 20 (he also includes 12,000 in 1945 Far East campaign) He believes they were not in Krivosheev’s numbers
C. Mikhalev 2000 p 20
D. Krivosheev- 2001 Russian Ed p.248- Deducted from troop strength at end of war 1,449k (1,046k sent to hospital and 403k civilians in military service)
The figure of 12.550k is not carved in stone, if we assume that the 159,000 border and security troops and 12,000 in the Far East are already included in the dead and missing, as Krivosheev says, and we add back from civilian losses the 1,447,000 reservists not on active strength, we agree with the above total of I'llenkov 13,850,000.

E. Civilians Killed / Died disease/famine Krivosheev- 2001 Russian Ed p.231. The military losses of 12,550k do not include 1,439k conscripted reservists not on active strength, they were reclassified to civilian war dead. To include them with military casualties would be a duplication. There is a miscellaneous balance of 8,000 of POWs not included in the figure of 4.900K (Official exact total 4,908k, Krivosheev 4,900k)

Civilian dead 11,520k (exterminated 7,420k and 4,100k famine and disease deaths) The initial 1946 reports of the Extraordinary State Commission(in Polian 1996) were 10,573k (exterminated 6,074k and 3,999k famine and disease deaths) The difference of 1,447k is the balance of POW/MIA deducted from military war dead.
F. The official figure for famine deaths in Leningrad siege is 641k cited by Krivosheev on p.248, other sources put total at over a million.
G. 2nd emigration- Zmeskov 1991, ADK puts the 622K in 1946 but adds a net increase of 500k to the 1941-45 population in order to balance the population. They estimated the net population growth at 500k from 1941-45
H. ADK study 1993 p.77
I. ADK study 1993 p.78

At this point you may ask, does the figure of 26.6 million agree with the population balance. The reconciliation below will do that. I believe that the casualty figures that we see today were calculated in 1946 based on a population analysis.

In 1,000
Population Mid 1941- 199.920 A.
Correction 1939 census (2,739) B.
1945 pop transfers (1,310) C.
War losses (26,613) D.
Add back: Increase Infant mortality 1,280 E.
Population mid 1945 170,538

Composition population mid 1945
Civilian population in USSR 151,166 A.
Civilians released in Germany 3,902 F.
Military 11,390 G.
Gulag inmates 1,738 H.
Special Settlement Pop 2.342 I.
Population mid 1945 170,538

A. Ivlev website, the Gosplan numbers

B. ADK pp32-33 The Census figure for 1939 in the Stalin era was 170.467k This was corrected in 1964 by the Central State Statistical Office to 167.728k The Difference is 2.739k
C. Less territorial adjs. in 1945 1.310k (1.392k territory returned to Poland less .092 Tana-Tuva) ADK 1993 p.85
D. ADK study 1993 p.78
E. Add back: Increase Infant mortality 1,280k because it is a wash. These children are born and die during the war.
F. Civilians freeded in Germany - Shevyakov, A. A,. Sotsiologicheskie issiedovaniya 1993 #8
G. Krivosheev- 2001 Russian Ed p.248- He puts military strength at 12,840K but he deducts from troop strength at end of war 1,449k (1,046k sent to hospital and 403k civilians in military service)
H. Data includes labor colonies and prisons as well as Gulags. Source M. Haynes A Century of State Murder?: Death and Policy in Twentieth Century Russia
I. Polian Against their Will p.185

The ADK study Andreev, EM, et al., Naselenie Sovetskogo Soiuza, 1922–1991 and the Krivosheev- 2001 Russian Ed are available on the Russian internet.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 03 Jul 2018 02:09, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 03 Jul 2018 01:39

They are using маскировка/maskirovka to confuse and mislead the reader.
Well, this is like comparing apples and oranges. Ilenkov gives us total deaths for the military (also the impact on demography), while Kriv et al. (the typical 8.7 figure) refer to operational losses only, if you compare them to Axis losses they fit rather well. Cummulated and or excess deaths will be even higher.
However it is true, most people always cite the 9 million figure without understanding that little bit more than half of the absolute figure were actually civillian deaths. They simply speculate on the fact that the average reader will neither comprehend nor research the topic thoroughly.
What is usually particularly amusing and almost satirical is that they sometimes double count Axis losses, e.g. by incl. SS twice, speculating on high Alsacian or Austrian losses, while also adding all POWs to the figure to demonstrate that the Soviet military improved till the end of the war, while initially being "startled". No such thing can be deduced from the conflict that occured on the EF (and any serious study for that matter).
The threads title is also misleading as the Soviets were heavily dependent on allied states to fill up their losses, in fact about 50-60% of the casualties were sustained by the R.S.F.S.R if you rely on CIA figures. I would even argue that Belorussia, Ukraine and Poland would qualify as the most devastated countries of WW2.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 03:04

They are feeding us дезинформация/disinformation, using маскировка/maskirovka to confuse and mislead the reader.
1-Krivosheev puts the war dead at 8.668 million. Lets go to his study, there were 5.226.800 KIA, 555.000 non combat deaths and 4,400,000 missing that adds down to 10,182,000. This is in close agreement to the tables in his book for the various fronts and fleets that add down to 10,172,000. He says 1.369,000 POW returned to the USSR, that puts irreplaceable losses at 8,803,000 not counting 1,102,800 that died of wounds. Irreplaceable losses then are 9,905,000 based on the data in his study not 8,668,000.

2-In his study Krivosheev has a reconciliation of those conscripted. He lists 11,944,100 as the irreplaceable losses. Good enough, we need to deduct 1,439,700 those conscripted included with civilian deaths, 422,700 sent to penal units at the front and 135,000 executed. That brings us down to 9,947,000 as the irreplaceable losses which is in close agreement with the data for the various fronts and fleets in his study. Krivosheev deducted from the 11,944,100 the following 1,439,700 conscripted reservists, 422,700 sent to penal units at the front, 135,000 executed ,1,100,000 died of wounds and 180,000 released POWs that remained abroad to arrive at his total of 8,668,400).The real total of the 8,668,000 is- 5.226.800 KIA, 555.000 non combat deaths and 4,900,000 missing less 2,015,000 released POWs. Krivosheev created a schedule adding to 8,668,400 that was meant to confuse and mislead the reader. A textbook case of disinformation and maskirovka.

3-I'lenkov and S. N. Mikhalev both high ranking Russian military authorities maintain that there were a a large number of military deaths in hospitals that are not in Krivosheev's figures. Krivosheev did reduce the total strength at the end of the war by 1,046,000 sent to hospitals, there were 3.798 discharged for medical reasons of whom 2,576,000 became invalids, a difference of 1,222,000.

4-436,000 were sent to military prisons, S. N. Mikhalev counts them with the war dead. I bet a lot of them were fighting for Hitler.

5-403,000 civilians in military service were deducted from the total strength at the end of the war. Why deduct them if they were alive and working for the military. Anyway partisans and militia units may be in this figure.

6-Krivosheev was nice enough to provide Archive references to documents for the casualties in the 1939-40 Finnish war. There were no references at all to documents for the 1941-45 campaigns in his study. I have seen references to and copies of various various documents on the Russian internet. They really add up to nothing. We need to see the documentation that the General Staff has in its possession. Why not publish it?
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 03:14

if you compare them to Axis losses they fit rather well.
True indeed, Krivosheev did low ball Soviet casualties to make them look not so bad when compared to the Axis.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 03:19

They simply speculate on the fact that the average reader will neither comprehend nor research the topic thoroughly.
True indeed, for years the academic cognoscenti have parroted Krivosheev's figure of 8.668 million.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Der Alte Fritz » 03 Jul 2018 05:59

So from this estimate how do the military losses breakdown into operational losses of Red Army, losses of partisans behind the lines, etc, by year?
Does it alter the overall picture presented by Krivosheev because even the figures he presents show a ratio of losses compared to German ones that is very poor. Evene the late war years show high casualties. True your figures make the picture worse but it does not shift the broad picture or narrative?

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 12:25

So from this estimate how do the military losses breakdown into operational losses of Red Army, losses of partisans behind the lines, etc, by year?
That I cannot answer. My understanding is that former Soviet unit commanders with access to the archives believed that the battle losses were greater than the Krivoshev report. What do the memoirs of these former Soviet unit commanders tell us about casualties?

The members of Axis History Forum cover the details of the various battles, my knowledge is limited to the histories of Erickson and Ziemke, I really need to read the stack of books by Glantz.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 03 Jul 2018 14:41

So from this estimate how do the military losses breakdown into operational losses of Red Army, losses of partisans behind the lines, etc, by year?
Does it alter the overall picture presented by Krivosheev because even the figures he presents show a ratio of losses compared to German ones that is very poor. Evene the late war years show high casualties. True your figures make the picture worse but it does not shift the broad picture or narrative?
That would be difficult to achieve. This is like comparing the OKH documents to Overmans work.
Anyway, I think you would have to compare viewtopic.php?f=79&t=227772&start=75 the operational losses side by side with Krivosheevs figures, I would not expect much of a difference. They did however play around with figures for the total war dead.
I really need to read the stack of books by Glantz.
I do not consider Glantz a good source for accurate loss figures and not transparent either. That is also the opinion of TDI.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 14:59

I do not consider Glantz a good source for accurate loss figures
Give the guy a break, he depends on the Russians for all that juicy info in his books. You don't bite the hand that feeds you. The same rule applies to the historians who cover the Ottoman Army like Erickson.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 15:01

That would be difficult to achieve. This is like comparing the OKH documents to Overmans work.
Yes, you it the nail on the head.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Jul 2018 15:26

So from this estimate how do the military losses breakdown into operational losses of Red Army
Go to Krivosheev and add down on a spreadsheet the figures for the 54 fronts and fleets. There are 10,171,358 dead and missing and 18,293,563 wounded and sick. He has another schedule of returned POWs of 1,368,849(which is 3/4 of those who were returned to the USSR)

They have wiggle room with the wounded and sick, when is a death recorded? The Died of wounds in Krivosheev is an allocation, a rough estimate IMO. The figure for Died of wounds needs to be bumbed up based on the analysis of Mikhalev, Krivosheev deducted 1.046 million in hospital from total strength. He listed 3.798 million discharged for medical reasons of whom 2.576 became invalids, what happened to the other 1.222 million? Illienkov tells us that there were stacks of unprocessed records deaths of wounded and sick.

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