Russian Military losses

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Der Alte Fritz
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Der Alte Fritz » 05 Aug 2018 09:02

It is impossible that the Soviet forces distribution of casualties would be so different to all other participants of WW2
I am not so sure that this is true. I think it highly possible that Soviet distribution of casualties is different, since, for instance, they had such large numbers of POWs and that these were so badly treated, similarly on the civilian side due to the Nazi occupation policies and deliberate extermination of large numbers of civilians on top of the Holocaust Jews. This experience is not matched by the USA or by the British Empire, it is analogous to Poland.
For every million you add to the military side, you reduce the civilian total.
Academia has seen these articles since the late 1990s and has not shifted its opinion, it retains the overall 26 million figure and the 9 million military and 15 million civilian split. Given 2.5 million Holocaust deaths, 4 million occupation deaths, 1 million at Leningrad, if you reduce the civilian total down to 12 million, it looks unbalanced. Similarly the women demographic total would point in the direction of the current figures being correct (with a large degree of latitude.)

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 05 Aug 2018 13:34

The academics outside of Russia are confused, they regurgitate the Russian disinformation that claims 8.668 million military war dead. They low ball civilian casualties of because 16 million non Jewish civilian deaths makes no sense and such a figure would be three times the Holocaust dead of 5.7 million. They assume 4.5 million civilian deaths ,including 2.5 million Jews and 2.0 million non Jews. They claim military dead are 7 million killed and 3.5million POWs. The remaining 12 million non Jews are ignored by the academics outside of Russia, they become road kill.

The academics outside of Russia need to do serious a serious demographic analysis of the wartime USSR. The solution to our dilemma is not all difficult.
First of all there were 13.8 million dead conscripted into the military including 3.2 million POWs. Second the natural death rate of the 185 civilians million not in the military increased because the worsening of living conditions. In 1940 the natural death rate was 1.8% a year, in the mid 1920's it was 2.8% based on the ADK study. If we assume that an additional 1% per year died of "natural causes" we can explain 7.5 million additional civilian deaths. Our summary is 13.8 million military dead, 4.5 million civilians directly killed and 7.5 additional civilian deaths due to worsening of living conditions. IMO we should include civilian deaths due to worsening of living conditions with the victims of the Nazis, they were not road kill.

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Der Alte Fritz
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Der Alte Fritz » 05 Aug 2018 17:28

The most commonly accepted study is the 1995 paper by M.V. Philimoshin which lists:

7.4 million civilian deaths (of which Holocaust deaths account for 2.5 million)
2.2 million forced labourer deaths
4.1 million deaths due to famine in occupied areas
13.6 million total

plus 2.5 million deaths due to famine in Soviet Union
9 million military deaths

total 26 million

You can argue about the detail but the broad outline is pretty much accepted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War ... viet_Union

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 05 Aug 2018 17:58

the broad outline of Philimoshin is pretty much accepted
Accepted by whom?

Philimoshin's figures make sense only if we include 5 million conscripted military personnel as civilians. Krivosheev's POW/MIA total is 1.783 million, he does not include 2.1 million POWS, 994,000 convicted, 215,000 Vlasovite dead, 1,046,000 died in hospital, 403,000 civilians working for the military, and 267,000 died of sickness

Another omissions are the 159,000 border troops and 12,000 in the Far East according to S.N. Mihalev

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 05 Aug 2018 22:32

I am not so sure that this is true. I think it highly possible that Soviet distribution of casualties is different, since, for instance, they had such large numbers of POWs and that these were so badly treated, similarly on the civilian side due to the Nazi occupation policies and deliberate extermination of large numbers of civilians on top of the Holocaust Jews. This experience is not matched by the USA or by the British Empire, it is analogous to Poland.
I was talking about fallen to total battle related deaths and not only about POWs and their respective treatment, not to mention that their medical system was also worse, this would beat the number even higher. The comparison should be undertaken to their adversary, which was mainly Germany. German losses and Soviet losses must also correlate, afterall Germany lost the war and had to face retribution as well. Poland did not fight a continous war over a large front for over 4 years (excluding the exiles for a moment or any attempts of an uprising) and did not mobilize 30 million men directly into the field forces (it was however occupied for a longer period compared to the area of the RSFSR and its respective population). Soviet literature tried to uphold this image, that the German aggressors led the campaign against the slavic population, (while this is true in its ideological form) the front shifted quite frequently however and thus it makes this statement seem rather dubious at times, at least occassionally to be exaggerated, for multiple reasons a) for the justification of war and all subsequent expansionist ambissions (bellum iustum) b) to exalt the performance of the RKKA and put the Soviet Union into the place of a victim and "liberator".
There are statistical constants which exist for all armies and eras throughout centuries. The greatest toll suffered was by Belorussia, Ukraine and Poland, while Poland was not a part of the USSR, this becomes evident if you distribute the war by days (duration) and actions undertaken in the respective territory.
Both armed forces had a tendency to leave no stone unturned and conduct a total war of destruction.
You can argue about the detail but the broad outline is pretty much accepted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War ... viet_Union
First of all Wikipedia is always a double edged sword, but that aside we are talking about a regime that is ranking on the 135th place of the CPI (corruptions perception index), there is barely any transparency and misinformation is part of everyday agenda, so excuse the mistrust.

That is, Harrison's calculation is probably correct but the distribution of civilian to military losses is false.
The academics outside of Russia need to do serious a serious demographic analysis of the wartime USSR. The solution to our dilemma is not all difficult.
First of all there were 13.8 million dead conscripted into the military including 3.2 million POWs. Second the natural death rate of the 185 civilians million not in the military increased because the worsening of living conditions. In 1940 the natural death rate was 1.8% a year, in the mid 1920's it was 2.8% based on the ADK study. If we assume that an additional 1% per year died of "natural causes" we can explain 7.5 million additional civilian deaths. Our summary is 13.8 million military dead, 4.5 million civilians directly killed and 7.5 additional civilian deaths due to worsening of living conditions. IMO we should include civilian deaths due to worsening of living conditions with the victims of the Nazis, they were not road kill.
The average birthrate in the Federation as of now is estimated (2017 figures) at 1.1 (for 141,3m, 11.00 births per 1,000 of population) and 1.35 for death rates, it may be possible to compare it to a war torn country. Infant mortality rate is probably a much better indicator though.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 01:56

I believe that Harrison is correct when he supports the ADK figure of 26.6 million. What I am saying is that Krivosheev's 8.668 million makes no sense. I also argue that the military irreplaceable losses listed in Soviet figures were 13.850 million and that the pieces to solve this puzzle are in the 1993 edition of Krivosheev. I do no
t claim that the 13.850 million is correct, only that the documented record shows this.
  • Military losses in millions
    KIA 5,187
    Far East 12
    Non Combat deaths 555
    DOW 1,100
    Border troops 159
    Died Sickness 267
    Convicts 994
    Vlasovites 215
    Remained in west 180
    Returned from west after1946 10
    POW Dead 3,222
    MIA 500
    Sent to hospital 1,046
    Civilian employees 403
    Military losses 13,850

    Civilians 7,420
    Famine & Disease 4,100
    Increase in infant mortality 1,300
    Total war dead 26,670
  • ADK
    June 1941 population 196,716
    Natural growth 41-45 500
    War dead (26,668) ADK
    Jan 1946 population 170,548
ADK study found gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million

The 2.164 million died of forced labor in Ludskie Poteri 1995 p.127 are actually balance
of POWs not in Krivosheev
Last edited by thorwald77 on 06 Aug 2018 23:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 06 Aug 2018 06:54

thorwald77 wrote:
05 Aug 2018 17:58
he does not include ... 1,046,000 died in hospital ...
Another omissions are the 159,000 border troops and 12,000 in the Far East according to S.N. Mihalev
This discussion seems to be going in circles. Ok that's a relevant part from the book:

Image

We see that in reality:
1. Far East losses are included
2. NKVD troops are included
3. Died of wounds are included

It's all said in the most clear and unambiguous manner. Also these inclusions follow from the method of calculation.

Then regarding other points:
Non Combat deaths 555
They are not "deaths" which I explained at least several times here. The number is taken from the "non-battle losses" column in standard casualty reports which actually counted such disparate categories as deaths to accidents, deceases, suicides etc, non-combat injuries, desertions, sentences by courts etc.
Died Sickness 267

Partly included in "non-battle losses"
Convicts 994
Not war dead/demographic losses for the most part
Vlasovites 215
This number was taken by the Soviet military from thin air. Anyway, not Soviet military losses.
MIA 500
Must be partly included in the repatriated POWs/deaths in captivity category
Sent to hospital 1,046
Not war dead/demographic losses.
Civilian employees 403
I don't see where this number comes from. Krivosheev talks about 94 000 civil personnel casualties (edition of 2009)

In general you add apples to oranges (categories which are not "demographic losses" by any definition) and with a great deal double counting. It can't be expected that the result will be meaningful.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 06 Aug 2018 10:51

The thread is ''Russian military losses ', thus, why are peoople discussing the number of civilian losses ?

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 06 Aug 2018 10:59

Stiltzkin wrote:
04 Aug 2018 23:11
but you must understand that they are different from Krivosheev.
They actually do not contradict each other. I will elaborate what he is trying to say: He is implementing his research into the calculation, this is not just about interpreting Krivosheevs work as "envisioned" or listed in his book, but rather what he excludes - to comment on the non essential persistency. It is impossible that the Soviet forces distribution of casualties would be so different to all other participants of WW2 and existing statistical constants. You cannot, out of over 5 million fallen, expect 8.7m total demographic losses. The number of deaths from MIA, POW and DoD/DoW alone exceeds this number, with all late registrations up to 46 or 47 this number would further increase.
MIA are not demographic losses .

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 06 Aug 2018 11:05

thorwald77 wrote:
06 Aug 2018 01:56

  • Military losses in millions
    KIA 5,187
    Far East 12
    Non Combat deaths 555
    DOW 1,100
    Border troops 159
    Died Sickness 267
    Convicts 994
    Vlasovites 215
    Remained in west 180
    Returned from west after1946 10
    POW Dead 3,222
    MIA 500
    Sent to hospital 1,046
    Civilian employees 403
    Military losses 13,850

    Civilians 7,420
    Famine & Disease 4,100
    Increase in infant mortality 1,300
    Total war dead 26,670
  • ADK
    June 1941 population 196,716
    Natural growth 41-45 500
    War dead (26,668) ADK
    Jan 1946 population 170,548
ADK study found gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million

The 2.164 million died of forced labor in Ludskie Poteri 1995 p.127 are actually balance
of POWs not in Krivosheev
You can't compare the June 1941 population with the January 1946 population, because the 1941 borders were different from the 1946 borders,and there was an exchange of populations .
The military losses are also not correct :they are a hotchpotch of different overlapping and questionable categories:
you can't put together KIA,MIA, people sent to hospital, people who remained in the west (how could the Soviets know the number of MILITARY-because there were also civilians-who remained in the west ?),Vlasovites (idem );did those who remained in the West not include Vlasovites ?
For the civilians, it is even worse : a lot of victims of the Holocaust were Jewish Poles and Jewish Romanians,of whom it is questionable to count them as Soviet citizens .

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 06 Aug 2018 11:29

thorwald77 wrote:
05 Aug 2018 13:34
The academics outside of Russia are confused, they regurgitate the Russian disinformation that claims 8.668 million military war dead. They low ball civilian casualties of because 16 million non Jewish civilian deaths makes no sense and such a figure would be three times the Holocaust dead of 5.7 million. They assume 4.5 million civilian deaths ,including 2.5 million Jews and 2.0 million non Jews. They claim military dead are 7 million killed and 3.5million POWs. The remaining 12 million non Jews are ignored by the academics outside of Russia, they become road kill.

The academics outside of Russia need to do serious a serious demographic analysis of the wartime USSR. The solution to our dilemma is not all difficult.
First of all there were 13.8 million dead conscripted into the military including 3.2 million POWs. Second the natural death rate of the 185 civilians million not in the military increased because the worsening of living conditions. In 1940 the natural death rate was 1.8% a year, in the mid 1920's it was 2.8% based on the ADK study. If we assume that an additional 1% per year died of "natural causes" we can explain 7.5 million additional civilian deaths. Our summary is 13.8 million military dead, 4.5 million civilians directly killed and 7.5 additional civilian deaths due to worsening of living conditions. IMO we should include civilian deaths due to worsening of living conditions with the victims of the Nazis, they were not road kill.
There is no proof that the 3,2 million POWs were all dead .Besides,the total number of POWs is not clear

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 06 Aug 2018 12:35

ljadw wrote:
06 Aug 2018 11:05
You can't compare the June 1941 population with the January 1946 population, because the 1941 borders were different from the 1946 borders,and there was an exchange of populations .
All numbers stand for post-war borders (1946)
(how could the Soviets know the number of MILITARY-because there were also civilians-who remained in the west ?)
Repatriation agency headed by Golikov presented an estimate of the number of SU citizens abroad (both former POWs and civilians). Based on inspection of camps and information provided by the Allies, I guess.
MIA are not demographic losses .
Part of missing are unregistered KIA or POWs who died in captivity and they are demographic losses.
There is no proof that the 3,2 million POWs were all dead .Besides,the total number of POWs is not clear
The exact number of POW deaths is unknown, since German reporting was quite contradictory and didn't quite add up. You can arrive to the bracket as wide as 2 million to 3.5 million.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 13:14

The exact number of POW deaths is unknown
But the figure of 3.222 million POW deaths agrees with the Soviet balance for total irreplaceable losses, right or wrong this is what they concluded.
The numbers come straight out of Krivosheev 1993 except POWs which is outlined in Demoscope 15/16
  • KIA 5,187,200
    Non Combat deaths 555,500
    DOW 1,100,300
    Border troops 159,000
    POW deaths 3,222,000
    MIA 500,000
    Deserters German Forces 215,000
    Remained in west 180,000
    Sickness 267,400
    Convicts executed 135,000
    Convicts Penal units 422,700
    11,944,100

Военнопленные http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/015/tema03.php
  • В. Умерло в лагерях 1,981
    казнено 473
    умерло в транзитных лагерях 768
    итог убито 3,222

In 1946 the Extraordinary State Commission concluded POW deaths were 3,912,000
  • POW deaths 3,222,000
    MIA 500,000
    Remained in west March 1946 190,000
    POW dead 3,912,000
Last edited by thorwald77 on 06 Aug 2018 14:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 14:04

You can't compare the June 1941 population with the January 1946 population, because the 1941 borders were different from the 1946 borders,and there was an exchange of populations .
ADK made it clear that the losses of 26.6 million were for the June 1941 population in the borders of 1946 Nasalinie 1993 page 53

Таким образом, для дальнейших расчетов мы приняли численность населения СССР на начало 1939 г. 168 524,4 тыс. человек в старых границах и 188 793,6 тыс. человек в границах 1946 -1991 гг. Этими данными, так же как и данными предыдущих переписей населения, мы воспользовались в качестве опорных точек в дальнейших расчетах и не подвергали их какой, либо модификации.

They added 20.268 million for the annexed territories and deduct 622,000 in 1946 for post war population transfers for a net gain 19,646,000, the 452,000 Soviet citizens who emigrated(2nd emigration) after the war are built into the figure of 26.6 million

My Estimate of Population Transfers
  • Estonia 1,122,000
    Latvia 1,951,000
    Lithunia 2,442,000
    Poland 12,983,000
    Romania 3,700,000
    Germans 1939-40 (350,000)
    Za Karpathia 725,400
    Russia 115,400
    Bialoystok (1,392,000)
    Poles who left (2,136,000)
    Ukrainians from Poland 518,200
    Czechs Volyn (33,000)
    19,646,000
Last edited by thorwald77 on 06 Aug 2018 15:19, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 14:20

The exact number of POW deaths is unknown, since German reporting was quite contradictory and didn't quite add up. You can arrive to the bracket as wide as 2 million to 3.5 million.
My analysis shows that the Soviets believed their losses were broken out by the different categories. I am not saying that their numbers are right or wrong. I do say that the reconciliation of Krivosheev adding down to 8,668,400 makes no sense.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 07 Aug 2018 01:11, edited 1 time in total.

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