Russian Military losses

Discussions on all aspects of the USSR, from the Russian Civil War till the end of the Great Patriotic War and the war against Japan. Hosted by Art.
User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 15:06

This is my estimate of the problem.
  • KIA 5,187,200
    Far East 12,000
    Non Combat deaths 555,500
    DOW 1,100,300
    Border troops 159,100
    Sick 267,400
    Convicts executed 135,000
    Convicts Penal units 422,700
    Convicts prison 436,600
    Deserters in interior 212,400
    Remained in west 3/1946 180,000
    Subtotal 8,668,200

    MIA 500,000
    POW Dead 3,222,000
    Returned from West after March 1946 10,700
    Grand Total 12,400,900
The 12,400,900 is the figure of Krivosheev for the names of the dead and missing listed in the local commissariats. He says the number is not correct because it contains duplications. But this is part of the ADK balance of 26.6 million. In other words 3,733 million Soviet war dead are really unexplained duplications. Sorry Yuri Ivanovich your grandfather was not killed in the war, he was a duplication. Moya dupa.

Add the 1,046,000 Sent to hospital,403,200 civilians and the 12,400,900 and we tie out to Illenkov's 13,850,00 war dead and missing listed by name in the Central Military Archive. Sorry Irina Petrova your grandfather was not killed in the war, he was a duplication. Moya dupa.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 16:52

My estimate of Soviet irreplaceable losses is as follows:

Based on the 2001 article of Illenkov, I allocated his figures based on the data of Red Army
  • Killed 4,900,000
    Died Wounds 1,250,000
    POWS 500,000
    Non Conmbat 230,000
    Subtotal Confirmed 6,880,000
    Missing 6,970,000
    Total 13,850,000
The various categories in Krivosheev are estimates based on unreliable reports in the General Staff files. Their problem is that they have 7 million missing that they cannot provide the government with a credible explanation, only rough estimates. The documents to back up these estimates are still secret. They have 7 million cards with the names of those missing in the war. They are card corpses with no description of how they died.

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 7041
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 06 Aug 2018 17:48

thorwald77 wrote:
06 Aug 2018 13:14
But the figure of 3.222 million POW deaths agrees with the Soviet balance for total irreplaceable losses
I don't see any reasons why it should agree with the balance, frankly speaking. The number 11,944,100 stands for total number of estimated dead and missing which actually includes almost 2 million repatriated POWs and many more POWs and missing that were recovered on the occupied territories. So a large chunk of men which were actually alive.
Военнопленные http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/015/tema03.php

В. Умерло в лагерях 1,981
казнено 473
умерло в транзитных лагерях 768
итог убито 3,222
they misread the original document. See:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160403154 ... 205_44.jpg
It actually states about 2 million POWs deaths plus some unspecified number of executions by SD and losses in transit which cannot be reliably reconstructed from this very document. Note a chaotic nature of German accounting. It was reported that 3.1 mln POWs were sent front for the front to the OKW zone, whereas OKW only accepted 2.8 mln. Apparently nobody could give a good explanation of this difference. In a similar way the numbers of POWs captured also varied widely. So, again, there is no reliable number, estimates could be as different as from 2 to 3.5 mln.
The 12,400,900 is the figure of Krivosheev for the names of the dead and missing listed in the local commissariats
Not the number of names, but the number of notices sent to families. Which were not in 1:1 correspondence to the actual casualties and moreover included missing which were later found alive.
Add the 1,046,000 Sent to hospital
why we should add them in the first place?
403,200 civilians
Are you kidding me? According to Krivosheev "403 200" was the number of personnel of civil agencies attached to the People's Commissariat for Defense as of 1 June 1945. How are they related to casualties at all?

In general I believe that you are juggling with some disparate numbers attempting to find a pattern in a correspondence between their arbitrary combinations. I can only give you a quote from one film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1IzNKIHhp0

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 18:38

Art, thanks for taking the time to reply.

S.N.Mikalev helped me to understand the problem. He pointed out that the article in Red Star in 1993 was showing 11.386 million as irreplaceable losses At that point I knew that the Krivosheev detail for the 11.944 million was false. Mikalev's 10.9 million made sense when POW balance was corrected. He also believed that total losses were 13.7 million when the balance of convicted and those in hospital are included.
  • KIA 5,187,200
    Far East 12,000
    Non Combat deaths 555,500
    DOW 1,102,800
    Border troops 159,100
    Remained in west 180,000
    POWs 3,222,000
    MIA 500,000
    Subtotal 10,918,500

    Sick 267,400
    Convicts executed 135,000
    Convicts Penal units 422,700
    Convicts prison 436,600
    Deserters in interior 212,400

    Total 11,956,000
Last edited by thorwald77 on 06 Aug 2018 21:44, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 19:38

Art thanks for posting the German document re POWS 1 May 1944

They did in fact misread the document, they were trying to force the Soviet figure of 3,222,000 and they cited this document. I read German, there is no way that you can squeeze 3,222,000 out of this.

This agrees to Krivosheev
MIA in Krivosheev details 4,452,000
Reservists 500,000
Liable for conscription 1,000,000
Released (2,015,000)
POWS (3,222,000)
MIAs (500,000)
Deserters (215,000)
Balance -0-

1-MIA in Krivosheev detail -For all 40 Armies and 14 Fleets/flotillas

2-Liable for conscription 5% population occupied regions per Krivosheev

I can only give you a quote from one film https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p92CKGAeQUY&t=109s BTW this is my old neighborhood in New York

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15676
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 06 Aug 2018 20:41

About the Soviet POWs :as the Germans did not know the exact number (and they were the ONLY who could know the number of POWs )how could the Soviets know ?
At the end of 1941, the official number of Soviet POWs was 3.918.148, but the Germans did not believe /trust their own figures and arbitrarily decreased it to 3.378.599,number which is as reliable as the first one .
At the end of the war (February 28 1945 )the OKH was talking about 5,245 million POWs ,but 6 days before FHO gave a number of 5,743 million : a difference of 500000 !
The number of registered POWs was 2,793000
1,4 million in Germany
446000 in Poland
452000 in the Ukraine
470000 in the Ostland 25000 in Scandinavia .
Sokolov said in 1996 that there were 6,3 million POWs of whom 4 million died during the war . This is sufficient to disqualify him as a serious historian .
In 1998 Filippov said that it was too high .

Source : The IFZ (Institut für Zeitgeschichte )

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 06 Aug 2018 21:30

About the Soviet POWs :as the Germans did not know the exact number (and they were the ONLY who could know the number of POWs )how could the Soviets know ?
I agree with you Ijadw. I have posted above a plausible reconstruction of what I believe is the Soviet/Russian version for the balance of 13,850,00 war dead and missing. These figures for losses are taken from Krivosheev and the reconcile with ADK. I don't claim that they are right only that they fit into the puzzle perfectly.

Here is just a recap of the POWs
  • POWs/MIA in millions
    Captured 5,737,000
    Freeded by March1946 (1,825,000)
    Balance 3,912,000
  • POWs 3,222,000
    MIA 500,000
    In West 190,000
    Balance 3,912,000
The 3,912,000 was generated by the Extraordinary State Commission and a statistic in Soviet era histories. The figure of 5,737,000 captured is taken from German propaganda generated in the war. 500,000 MIA is in Krivosheev, the 1,825,000 released by 1946 is in the data published by Zemskov in 1995, the 3,222,000 POW dead was in a 2001 article by Polian. These figures fit into the puzzle of total Soviet losses perfectly. Are they correct? We cannot answer that question.

Stiltzkin
Member
Posts: 1165
Joined: 11 Apr 2016 12:29
Location: Coruscant

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 06 Aug 2018 22:04

MIA are not demographic losses
A soldier who is gone missing, distances himself from the front, deserts and later dies due to a disease, still before the end of the war. His whereabouts where first unknown but it was possible to trace him. What is it? Well its MIA that became a loss. Demographic losses are all losses of military personnel and civilians aggregated. Overmans in his study assumes that most of the MIA are dead. Whether they are dead or just migrated, it still has an impact on demography. It is not that there are lots of MIA left (and any speculation of their whereabouts for that matter) in the Soviet figures.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15676
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 07 Aug 2018 10:41

Overmans has been debunked by Zetterling .
And,there is a big difference between demografic losses, something which is artificial , and military losses .
Military losses are dead, wounded, POWs and missing .
Demographic losses are those who died during the war and because of the war + those who left the country during the war,because of the war,and did not return .
Vlasovites are not military losses, but demographic losses if they died/left the SU .

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 07 Aug 2018 14:39

Lets analyze Krivosheev's data. The 8.668 million irreplaceable losses is a figure created( a plug) to force the total Soviet losses to 20 million. 8.668 military, 3.912 Pows and 7.420 civilian= 20million. In 1990 when Mosievv put the losses at 8.668 million IMO he thought the balance would be added in with in the 3.912 million POWs. The 8.668 million irreplaceable losses in Krivosheev is unrelated to the details in the book. Lets analyze these details in the English translation pages 161-208. POWs returned are on page 237. Open up an Excel spreadsheet and drop in the numbers

Operational Losses Combat units pp.161-208 Krivosheev
  • Killed 5,184,749
    Missing 4,452,336
    Non combat deaths 534,273
    Returned POWs(1,368,849)
    Subtotal 8,802,509
    Died of wounds 1,102,000
    Irreplaceable Losses 9,903,509
Died of wounds--15,201,521 total wounded X 7.25%= 1,102,000

Allocation of of Missing
  • POWs Dead 3,222,000
    MIA 500,000
    Deserters -War 212,000
    Deserters -Post war 190,000
    POWs returned 1,826,000
    Total Missing during war 5,950,000
Krivosheev allocated 75% of the 5.950 million to the operational losses of the front line forces- 4.452 million. POW returned by March 1946
1,826,000 75% were the 1.368 million allocated by Krivosheev The deserters were in fact an operational loss to the Soviet forces during the war!

The English translation of Krivosheev is available on ABE books for about $8 USD Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century 9781853672804

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source= ... 5443858915

Stiltzkin
Member
Posts: 1165
Joined: 11 Apr 2016 12:29
Location: Coruscant

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 07 Aug 2018 22:25

Demographic losses are those who died during the war and because of the war + those who left the country during the war,because of the war,and did not return .
Thats exactly what it is and that is what most MIA are going to be one way or another. Overmans and Operational losses are apples and oranges, it is apparently hard to understand for most people. Krivosheev and Ilyenkov correlate like Overmans and the OKH documents, users can complain about this fact as much as they want.
Died of wounds--15,201,521 total wounded X 7.25%= 1,102,000
This figure may be even higher, note that the value for Germany up to the end of 1944 is approx. 7-8%. The war was mainly fought on Soviet soil though.
Last edited by Stiltzkin on 07 Aug 2018 23:54, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 07 Aug 2018 23:25

Died of wounds-This figure may be even higher,
Note well Krivosheev has 1,046,000 sent to hospital, S.N. Mihalev and Illenkov both believe the died of wounds was greater than those in Krivosheev

I am not trying to prove Krivosheev right or wrong only to put the pieces of his puzzle together

Stiltzkin
Member
Posts: 1165
Joined: 11 Apr 2016 12:29
Location: Coruscant

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Aug 2018 01:01

Note well Krivosheev has 1,046,000 sent to hospital, S.N. Mihalev and Illenkov both believe the died of wounds was greater than those in Krivosheev

I am not trying to prove Krivosheev right or wrong only to put the pieces of his puzzle together
I understand, my assumption is that the number of wounded (and that has been pointed out by Kriv) isn't actually that high (double counting, multiple woundings to returns), while the number of DoW is probably higher.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 528
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 08 Aug 2018 01:38

I thank Art for posting the German document on Soviet POW's that was cited by Pavel Polian on Demosope 15/16. I have analyzed the document. Polian has presented a misleading interpretation of the data. The Germans were not sure of the exact number of POW dead and missing according to the document. Krivosheev was correct in my opinion when he dismissed the German accounting of POW losses. These dubious estimates, dismissed by Krivosheev, are part of the overall war dead figure of 13.850 million. Here is my schedule that corrects Polians figures.


Polian
  • 1-Died in Camps 1,981,000
    2-Executed 473,000
    3-Died in transit
    or not registered 768,000
    Total POW dead/missing 3,222,000
Corrected Balance
  • 1-Died in Camps 1,981,634
    2-Fled,turned over to
    SD,SS & Luftwaffe 963,463
    3-Died in transit
    or due to clerical error 280,810
    Total POW unaccounted for 3,225,907
The German document listed 5,163,381 POWs captured, of whom 816,230 were released, 1,054,820 remained in camps 5/1944, 66,694 escaped and the balance of 3,225,907 are the dead and missing. The German document is off by 270 due to a transposition error.

Stiltzkin
Member
Posts: 1165
Joined: 11 Apr 2016 12:29
Location: Coruscant

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Aug 2018 03:44

Source : The IFZ (Institut für Zeitgeschichte )
The methodology used by Otto/Keller was criticized and dismissed by other authors in the IFZ, the error was so substantial that it went beyond the millions (based on IDs and PK I). However, the figures refer to "registered" (individuals) and cannot give an answer on the total number of POWs, by quoting their own words. They do match an OKH document though.
https://www.ifz-muenchen.de/heftarchiv/ ... 4_otto.pdf

2,731,000 as the minimum registered by the Wehrmacht.

Return to “The Soviet Union at War 1917-1945”