Russian Military losses

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 11 Aug 2018 13:59

The war in the East was more than a list of battles and operations
I agree, but "ehi, dove è resto" Where's the rest?

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 11 Aug 2018 15:04

thorwald77 wrote:
10 Aug 2018 14:26
I put Krivosheev's data on an Excel spreadsheet, the Armies and Fleets add down to 10,171,358 irrecoverable losses. He has a list of 94 battles that add down to 7,822,439. There is a difference of 2,348,919, Where's the rest?
Losses in actions that were not counted as major operations by K.
We know Operation Mars is missing from the list.
You have an old edition apparently. From 2001 and on there is "Rzhev-Sychevka offensive operation" in the list:
http://rus-sky.com/history/library/w/w0 ... c536603408

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 11 Aug 2018 15:07

ljadw wrote:
10 Aug 2018 17:31
losses by the non operational forces in the interior.
Not counted by K. at all. It's pretty obvious when you compare K. totals with sums by fronts and independent armies. They are practically the same.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 11 Aug 2018 15:40

You have an old edition apparently. From 2001 and on there is "Rzhev-Sychevka offensive operation" in the list:
Thanks Art, I was working with the 1997 English translation, I need to update the list of battles and operations using the 2001 Russian ed.


However, the list of fronts and fleets shows 10.171 million irrecoverable losses, losses of the interior forces are not covered. My question still is, " Where is the rest"?
Last edited by thorwald77 on 11 Aug 2018 18:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 11 Aug 2018 16:22

Dead of wounds are not counted. Or, saying more accurately, included in the number of wounded.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 11 Aug 2018 17:16

Art you see now that the details of the battles/fronts does not agree with the figure of 8.668 million.

Soviet Losses in Millions
Irr Losses per details 10.171
Returned SU (1.836)
Died Wounds 1.103
Reservists .500
Net losses 9.938

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 11 Aug 2018 18:59

The reason for our difference may be Krivosheev's adjustments for undercount of POWs

Irrecoverable losses
Balance per 51 individual battles 6,282,251
Balance per 73 separate OPs 2,124,453
Total 8,406,704

Balance per Fronts Fleets 10,171,358

Difference 1,764,654

From Krivosheev's main reconciliation
MIA Balance per original reports 3,305,600
MIA Balance adjusted (5,059,000)
Difference 1,754,000

Krivosheev says there is a bump up of 1.163 million for POWs and 500,000 reservists plus adjs. for border troops

I would not bet the farm on those stats for the 51 individual battles and 73 separate OPs.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 12 Aug 2018 17:54

thorwald77 wrote:
11 Aug 2018 17:16
Art you see now that the details of the battles/fronts does not agree with the figure of 8.668 million.

Soviet Losses in Millions
Irr Losses per details 10.171
Returned SU (1.836)
Died Wounds 1.103
Minus 0.9 mln recovered missing.
Reservists .500
Nor counted in 8.6 mln demographic losses.

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 12 Aug 2018 20:00

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss. He presented the detailed losses on schedules for the fronts and fleets


Details per Krivosheev details of Fronts/Fleets
  • KIA 5,187,200
    MIA/POWs 4,455,600
    Non Combat deaths 541,900
    Subtotal ennemerated losses 10,184,700
    Released POWS (2,016,300)
    Reservists 500,000
    Balance Per Krivosheev 8,668,400

    Additions
    Died of Wounds 1,100,300
    Border troops 159,100
    Corrected Balance 9,927,800
Not included with the losses of the Fronts/Fleets are 1,000,000 reservists liable for service but probably died as POWs or deserted, 267,400 personnel who died of sickness in hospital and 994,300 convicts.

The ADK study documented a demographic loss of 26.613 million. 20.051 million men and 6.562 million women. The gap between men and women in the total population increased by 13.5 million men. Krivosheev's 8.668 million was not a demographic loss. The military demographic loss was in fact 13-14 million.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 13 Aug 2018 01:15, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2018 00:58

Krivosheev tells us a story that there were 939,700 MIA's that were cut off and later recovered and then he deducted 500,000 reservists, 1,439,700 in total. I always check a story that is told by a Soviet official.
  • Losses of forces in Krivosheev's details
    KIA 5,187,200
    Non Combat deaths 541,900
    DOW 1,100,300
    Border troops 159,100
    POWS/MIA 4,455,600
    Reservists 500,000
    Returned to the USSR (1,836,000)
    Irrecoverable Losses 10,108,100

    Krivosheev's deductions
    DOW (1,100,300)
    Border troops (159,100)
    Pows in western countries (180,300)
    Deductions (1,439,700)

    Krivosheev's Balance 8,668,400
  • KIA 5,187,200
    Non Combat deaths 541,900
    POWs/MIA 4,955,600
    Recovered POWS (2,016,300)
    Irrecoverable losses 8,668,400
IMO Krivosheev's story about the 939,700 MIA's that were cut off and later recovered is дезинформация/disinformation meant to confuse the reader.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 13 Aug 2018 08:37

thorwald77 wrote:
12 Aug 2018 20:00
Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss. He presented the detailed losses on schedules for the fronts and fleets


Details per Krivosheev details of Fronts/Fleets
  • KIA 5,187,200
    MIA/POWs 4,455,600
    Non Combat deaths 541,900
    Subtotal ennemerated losses 10,184,700
    Released POWS (2,016,300)
    Reservists 500,000
    Balance Per Krivosheev 8,668,400

    Additions
    Died of Wounds 1,100,300
    Border troops 159,100
    Corrected Balance 9,927,800
Not included with the losses of the Fronts/Fleets are 1,000,000 reservists liable for service but probably died as POWs or deserted, 267,400 personnel who died of sickness in hospital and 994,300 convicts.

The ADK study documented a demographic loss of 26.613 million. 20.051 million men and 6.562 million women. The gap between men and women in the total population increased by 13.5 million men. Krivosheev's 8.668 million was not a demographic loss. The military demographic loss was in fact 13-14 million.
That the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million does not mean that the military demographic loss was13,5 million ;besides there is no such thing as a military demographic loss:there are military losses and demographic losses and they are counted differently.
And, people who PROBABLY died as POWs are not military losses ,only people of whom it is proven that they died as POWs are military losses .Deserters can be considered as military losses, but as it is almost impossible to prove that a MIA/POW was a deserter,......

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 13 Aug 2018 09:22

thorwald77 wrote:
12 Aug 2018 20:00
Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss.
Well, that's the term used in the book - 8.7 mln demographic losses of the Soviet armed forces.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2018 12:47

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss.

A demographic loss means that if 9.9 million were killed or missing and 1.2 million would hypothetically die of natural causes in peacetime, the demographic loss would be 8.7 million. Maksudov and Ellman explained this concept in their article on Soviet war losses.

Krivosheev listed actual number of dead in missing in his study for each Front and Fleet and the number of returned POWs.

Krivosheev's casualties are an actual enumeration not a demographic estimate

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2018 12:52

That the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million does not mean that the military demographic loss was 13,5 million

Krivosheev wants us to believe that the military dead and missing were 8.7 million and the civilian toll 18 million. A ratio of 2 civilian war dead to 1 military. This is absurd, but you can believe it if you so choose.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 13 Aug 2018 15:24

thorwald77 wrote:
13 Aug 2018 12:47
Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss.
Again, "demographic losses" is simply a quotation from the text. According to the classical definition by Urlanis "From a demographic point of view losses of military must include all cases of death regardless of their causes (wounds, sickness etc)":
https://scepsis.net/library/id_2000.html
Krivosheev simply follows this definition. Definitely there is a difference between losses defined this way and hyper-mortality calculated by ADK. In four years at normal peace-time level of mortality of 10-12 million men in the armed forces several hundred thousand would die. The difference is not that large though.

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