Russian Military losses

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2018 16:19

Art this is from Urlanis

Однако следует отметить, что не все потери за период войны являются результатом войны. Очевидно, что и без войны известная часть личного состава армии, будучи в гражданском состоянии, также умерла бы на протяжении нескольких лет. Жизнь каждого человека, даже в молодом возрасте, и в мирное время таит в себе известный риск смерти. Такие случаи /21/ смерти надо исключать, чтобы получить размер потерь в результате войны. Поэтому, говоря о людских военных потерях, надо различать два понятия: валовые потери, т. е. общее фактическое число умерших военных за время войны, и чистые потери, получающиеся за вычетом обычной (при данных условиях) смертности. Именно эта величина и дает возможность определить размер безвозвратных потерь, которые должны быть полностью приписаны войне.

Google Translation
However, it should be noted that not all losses during the war period are the result of war. Obviously, even without war, a certain part of the army's personnel, being in a civilian condition, would also die for several years. The life of every person, even at a young age, and in peacetime, carries a known risk of death. Such cases / 21 / death should be excluded to obtain the size of losses as a result of the war. Therefore, when speaking of human military losses, we must distinguish between two concepts: gross losses, i.e., the total actual number of military deaths during the war, and net losses resulting from the reduction of the usual (under given conditions) mortality. It is this value that makes it possible to determine the amount of irrecoverable losses that must be fully attributed to war.

A demographic loss could be either the total actual number of military deaths during the war or the net losses resulting from the reduction of the usual (under given conditions) mortality. In any case the Krivosheev study lists actual deaths not the net losses resulting from the reduction of the usual mortality. In any case the total actual number of military deaths during the war is reduced from 9.928 million to 8.668 million by excluding 1.1 million died of wounds and 159,000 border troops.

According to Maksudov and Ellman 300,000 natural deaths (.7% per thousand) would have occurred in the four years of the war
http://sovietinfo.tripod.com/ELM-War_Deaths.pdf

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2018 17:45

ADK's 13.5 million excess male deaths makes sense. Ilenkov's 13.850 million estimate less 300,000 natural deaths (10 million X.07% over 4 yrs) equals 13.5 million. There were 3.9 million dead and missing not counted in the details of the fronts and fleets, captured reservists not inducted, deserters to the West, Vlasovites, convicts, personnel sent to rear area hospitals and civilians employed by the military.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 14 Aug 2018 13:03

thorwald77 wrote:
13 Aug 2018 16:19
In any case the Krivosheev study lists actual deaths not the net losses resulting from the reduction of the usual mortality.
Yep.
In any case the total actual number of military deaths during the war is reduced from 9.928 million to 8.668 million by excluding 1.1 million died of wounds and 159,000 border troops.
Eh, no it's not from the meaning of K's calculations.
The ADK study documented a demographic loss of 26.613 million. 20.051 million men and 6.562 million women. The gap between men and women in the total population increased by 13.5 million men.
That is a only a crude estimate which is based on assumption that civilian casualties were equally distributed between men and women. This assumption is not that obvious and is far from being a mathematical law. One should remember here that the male/female ratio at the start of the war was deformed exactly because peace-time death rates of men and women were different. There is no reason to expect that wartime additions to the death rate would be the same. Besides, there were more than 800 000 registered wartime deaths in GULag, colonies and prisons which mostly pertain to male losses. There were casualties of partizans, various nationalist guerillas, German-sponsored collaborators, Moldavians drafted to the Romanian Army etc which didn't belong to Soviet armed forces.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 14 Aug 2018 13:22

The ADK study documented a demographic loss of 26.613 million. 20.051 million men and 6.562 million women. The gap between men and women in the total population increased by 13.5 million men.

ADK never provided details for their figure of 26.6 million but they did mention that military losses were 8.668 million.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 14 Aug 2018 14:13

That is a only a crude estimate which is based on assumption that civilian casualties were equally distributed between men and women.
That is not correct, ADK used the 1959 census and worked their way back to 1945 by deducting births and adding back natural deaths from 1946-58. ADK estimated infant mortality of 1.3 million during the war. Losses of the prewar population were 25.3 million.

Outside of Russia in 1977 Maksudov came up with 24.5 million, in 1959 Warren Eason in the US using the 1959 census data estimated losses at 25 million. The 1959 census data shows that the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million. It also found that the 1939 census was overstated by 2-3 million.

Zmeskov claimed losses were 20 million based on the prewar mortality. The man was a numerical illiterate. The ADK analysis put the prewar annual mortality at 4.2 million, including 1.3 million in infant mortality and 2.9 million of persons alive at the beginning of the year. During the war(4.5 years) the births declined from 31.5 million to 16.5 million causing a decline in infant mortality. The infant mortality rate was 18.4% The decline in births and the corresponding absolute decline in infant mortality resulted in 11.4 million surviving births and 10.9 million natural deaths.
  • USSR Pop in millions
    June1941 196.7
    Births 11.4
    Nat deaths (10.9)
    War dead (26.6)
    Dec 1945 170.6

The Russian Academy of Science published the ADK study, in 1993 it did not go to the publisher until it was peer reviewed.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 14 Aug 2018 14:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 14 Aug 2018 14:32

  • Besides, there were more than 800 000 registered wartime deaths in GULag, colonies and prisons which mostly pertain to male losses. There were casualties of partizans, various nationalist guerillas, German-sponsored collaborators, Moldavians drafted to the Romanian Army etc which didn't belong to Soviet armed forces.
That is interesting but Illenkov maintains that the Archive files list 13.850 million military dead and missing. S.N. Mihalev put total losses at 13.7 million including convicts and those sent to hospital.

My own estimate based on Krivosheev and S.N. Mihalev is as follows:

KIA 5,187,200
Far East 12,000
Non Combat deaths 555,500
DOW 1,102,800
Border troops 159,000
POW 3,225,600
MIA 500,000
Remained in west 180,000
Subtotal 10,922,000

Deserters German Forces 215,000
Died of Sickness 267,400
Convicts executed 135,000
Convicts Penal units 422,700
Convicts prison 436,600
Sent to hospital 1,046,000
Civilian employees 403,200
Total irrecoverable losses 13,848,000

Reconciliation of POW/MIA balance
  • POW dead 3,225,000
    MIA 500,000
    Deserters to west 180,000
    Vlasovites 215,000
    Returned to USSR 1,836,000
    5,956,000

    Balance per Krivosheev 4,455,600
    Reservists 500,000
    Libel for service 1,000,000
    5,955,600

    POW dead of 3,224,000 based on German report of 1 May 1944

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 14 Aug 2018 14:53

thorwald77 wrote:
14 Aug 2018 14:13
That is a only a crude estimate which is based on assumption that civilian casualties were equally distributed between men and women.
That is not correct, ADK used the 1959 census and worked their way back to 1945 by deducting births and adding back natural deaths from 1946-58. ADK estimated infant mortality of 1.3 million during the war. Losses of the prewar population were 25.3 million.
By crude estimate I mean "Civilian casualties = 2 x female casualties", not ADK study per se.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 14 Aug 2018 18:40

thorwald77 wrote:
14 Aug 2018 14:13
That is a only a crude estimate which is based on assumption that civilian casualties were equally distributed between men and women.
That is not correct, ADK used the 1959 census and worked their way back to 1945 by deducting births and adding back natural deaths from 1946-58. ADK estimated infant mortality of 1.3 million during the war. Losses of the prewar population were 25.3 million.

Outside of Russia in 1977 Maksudov came up with 24.5 million, in 1959 Warren Eason in the US using the 1959 census data estimated losses at 25 million. The 1959 census data shows that the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million. It also found that the 1939 census was overstated by 2-3 million.

Zmeskov claimed losses were 20 million based on the prewar mortality. The man was a numerical illiterate. The ADK analysis put the prewar annual mortality at 4.2 million, including 1.3 million in infant mortality and 2.9 million of persons alive at the beginning of the year. During the war(4.5 years) the births declined from 31.5 million to 16.5 million causing a decline in infant mortality. The infant mortality rate was 18.4% The decline in births and the corresponding absolute decline in infant mortality resulted in 11.4 million surviving births and 10.9 million natural deaths.
  • USSR Pop in millions
    June1941 196.7
    Births 11.4
    Nat deaths (10.9)
    War dead (26.6)
    Dec 1945 170.6

The Russian Academy of Science published the ADK study, in 1993 it did not go to the publisher until it was peer reviewed.
Using the census of 1959 to calculate the war losses of WWII is very questionable, and this is an euphemism .As long as there are no birth/death figures for civilians are available for 1941-1945, it is all only a question of guessing .There is no proof for 11,4 million births and 10,9 million nat deaths .

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 14 Aug 2018 19:26

ljadw wrote:
14 Aug 2018 18:40
Using the census of 1959 to calculate the war losses of WWII
To calculate population as of 1 January 1946. You don't any war-time death rate for that.
There is no proof for 11,4 million births
Here ADK used survey of birth rate for unoccupied regions by R.Sifman extrapolating it to the entire Soviet territory.
and 10,9 million nat deaths
That is calculated based on pre-war mortality on which sufficient stats were available.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 14 Aug 2018 19:30

thorwald77 wrote:
13 Aug 2018 00:58
IMO Krivosheev's story about the 939,700 MIA's that were cut off and later recovered is дезинформация/disinformation meant to confuse the reader.
The very fact that they were recovered or the exact number?

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 14 Aug 2018 19:36

thorwald77 wrote:
14 Aug 2018 14:32
That is interesting but Illenkov maintains that the Archive files list 13.850 million military dead and missing.
Have you seen the Ilyenkov's card index? Neither did I. And nobody did by all appearance in 17 years that passed. The only fact is that Ilyenkov counted this number of cards. What is the number of military casualties corresponding to those cards is the question which is impossible to answer without some assessment of the database.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 14 Aug 2018 20:06

Art wrote:
14 Aug 2018 19:26
ljadw wrote:
14 Aug 2018 18:40
Using the census of 1959 to calculate the war losses of WWII
To calculate population as of 1 January 1946. You don't any war-time death rate for that.
There is no proof for 11,4 million births
Here ADK used survey of birth rate for unoccupied regions by R.Sifman extrapolating it to the entire Soviet territory.
and 10,9 million nat deaths
That is calculated based on pre-war mortality on which sufficient stats were available.
Extrapolation is not scientific,thus extrapolation of birth figures and natural deaths of the nonoccupied territories and of the pre-war years is very dangerous .The only thing that is known is the 1946 population,but not the 1941 population,as this is mainly founded on the 1937/1939 census the figures of which vary by 6 million,which means that the 1941 population could be 190 million(162 million + 28 million from the 1939-1941 increase and from the annexations ) instead of 196 million and that the war losses could be 20 million instead of 26 million .

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 14 Aug 2018 20:12

thorwald77 wrote:
14 Aug 2018 14:13
That is a only a crude estimate which is based on assumption that civilian casualties were equally distributed between men and women.
That is not correct, ADK used the 1959 census and worked their way back to 1945 by deducting births and adding back natural deaths from 1946-58. ADK estimated infant mortality of 1.3 million during the war. Losses of the prewar population were 25.3 million.

Outside of Russia in 1977 Maksudov came up with 24.5 million, in 1959 Warren Eason in the US using the 1959 census data estimated losses at 25 million. The 1959 census data shows that the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million. It also found that the 1939 census was overstated by 2-3 million.

Zmeskov claimed losses were 20 million based on the prewar mortality. The man was a numerical illiterate. The ADK analysis put the prewar annual mortality at 4.2 million, including 1.3 million in infant mortality and 2.9 million of persons alive at the beginning of the year. During the war(4.5 years) the births declined from 31.5 million to 16.5 million causing a decline in infant mortality. The infant mortality rate was 18.4% The decline in births and the corresponding absolute decline in infant mortality resulted in 11.4 million surviving births and 10.9 million natural deaths.
  • USSR Pop in millions
    June1941 196.7
    Births 11.4
    Nat deaths (10.9)
    War dead (26.6)
    Dec 1945 170.6

The Russian Academy of Science published the ADK study, in 1993 it did not go to the publisher until it was peer reviewed.
A pre-war annual mortality of 4 million is much too high : it was 3,2 million in 1940 .

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 14 Aug 2018 22:58

A pre-war annual mortality of 4 million is much too high : it was 3,2 million in 1940 .
ljadw, that statement is not correct, see ADK Nasselanie p.118. The correct figure is 4.205 million

http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/na ... 2-1991.pdf

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by AriX » 13 Sep 2018 21:01

I have noticed Krieshoevs huge cheating about military losses in 1945. When compare Red Army strenght beetwen 1.05.1945 and 1.06.1945 its easy to count , that total strenght on 1st July is on 300.000 personal less that it should be ,if believe that irrecoverable losses in 1945 were aprox. 500,000.
Plus, aprox. 500,000 drafts were drafted beetwen 1 May and 1`July of 1945. So, total KIA casuelties of Red Army in 1945 range from 1000,000 to 1,300,000.

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