Russian Military losses

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stg 44
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by stg 44 » 13 Sep 2018 22:36

AriX wrote:
13 Sep 2018 21:01
I have noticed Krieshoevs huge cheating about military losses in 1945. When compare Red Army strenght beetwen 1.05.1945 and 1.06.1945 its easy to count , that total strenght on 1st July is on 300.000 personal less that it should be ,if believe that irrecoverable losses in 1945 were aprox. 500,000.
Plus, aprox. 500,000 drafts were drafted beetwen 1 May and 1`July of 1945. So, total KIA casuelties of Red Army in 1945 range from 1000,000 to 1,300,000.
What was the discharge numbers for that period? Seems just as likely that unneeded personnel were discharged, probably older men who were less useful in the military than the civilian sector.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 13 Sep 2018 22:45

AriX wrote:
13 Sep 2018 21:01
I have noticed Krieshoevs huge cheating about military losses in 1945. When compare Red Army strenght beetwen 1.05.1945 and 1.06.1945 its easy to count , that total strenght on 1st July is on 300.000 personal less that it should be ,if believe that irrecoverable losses in 1945 were aprox. 500,000.
Honestly speaking, I didn't understand your method. Anyway, Krivosheev didn't say about approx 500.000 casualties. Numbers from the book:
557 643 killed
68 537 missing
148 028 wounded dying of wounds
26 509 non-battle casualties (ok, not all were actually dead)
So a way more than 500.000.
Plus, aprox. 500,000 drafts were drafted beetwen 1 May and 1`July of 1945.
Where is it from?

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by AriX » 15 Sep 2018 16:15

Where is it from?
From Krivosheevs book,2010.
https://ibb.co/kBtzme
https://ibb.co/hkBrzz

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 15 Sep 2018 22:46

ARIX I believe the problem is in the Krivosheev figure for POWs and MIAs
Regarding the POWs and MIAs here is the data

1-According to Viktor Zemeskov 6.2 million were captured
See note #1 here http://scepsis.net/library/id_1234.html

2-According to Krivosheev the original records of the Army/Navy showed 3.305.600 POW/MIA
He added 1.150.00 POW/MIA for unrecorded casualties to bring the total up to 4.455.600 POW/MIA

3-In Krivosheev the details for the individual Armies add down to 4,452,336 POW/MIA

4-Krivosheev added 103,000 Border Troops to bring his total to 4,559,000

Here is my reconciliation

Total Captured/MIA 6,200,000
LESS
Freeded up to Oct1945 (314,000)
Imprisoned by SOVs (436,000)
DiedGerman service (212,000)
Reservists (500,000)
Remained in the west after war (180,000)
Balance 4,558,000

Freeded after Oct 1945 (2,016,000)
Balance dead MIA POW 2,543,000

In summation 6.2 million were captured and 3.657 million were accounted for leaving 2.543 million dead MIA POW. Krivosheev shows us the 4.558 million on his schedule, where are the other 1.642 million? Krivosheev attributes the difference to captured civilians, reservists ect. According to German records cited by Krivosheev 823,200 deserters were in German service. I believe that the Krivosheev schedule is дезинформация/маскировка to cover up the deserters in German service and unrecorded MIA. Another important point is that the total Captured/MIA was 6.2 million, but the Germans registered 5,269,000 POW of whom they freeded 816,000 for service. No doubt many military personnel were cut off and perished before being registered as POW.

Note Krivosheev puts total POW freeded at 2,329,000, of whom 2,015,000 after 10/1944. Difference 314,000
Last edited by thorwald77 on 15 Sep 2018 23:41, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 15 Sep 2018 23:31

Recap of Total Casualties
8O
  • Total casualties
    KIA 5,226,800
    Non Combat deaths 555,500
    DOW 1,102,800
    MIA 500,000
    MIA/POWs 1,000,000
    MIA/POWs 4,559,000
    Freeded (2,015,000)
    Sick died 267,300
    Convicts executed 135,000
    Convicts Penal Units 422,700
    In West Mar 1946 190,000
    Total 11,944,100
  • Deserters in German Service (included with MIA/POW)
    Died in German service 212,000
    Imprisoned by Sovs 436,000
    In West post war 180,000
    Total 828,000
Freeded POWS (2,015,000) includes 190,000 remained ouside USSR and 436,600 imprisoned

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 22 Jul 2019 07:17

A simple attempt to estimate officer casualties in 1941.

Officers available in June 1941:
Army - 568 364 generals and officers
Navy - 52 283 admirals and officers
Total - 620 647 (M.V. Zaharov "Soviet General Staff before the war")

Until the end of 1941:
reserve officers called up - 652 336
gradated from military schools and courses - 169 603
transferred from NKVD - 13 328
(From "Military cadres of the Soviet state...")

Total by 1.1.42 620 647 + 652 336 + 169 603 + 13 328 = 1 455 914

In the Red Army on 20.12.1941 as reported by general Chetverikov 960 040 officers and 42 042 students of academies, courses etc, total 1 002 082
viewtopic.php?p=1951619#p1951619
In addition of 600 000 wounded and sick in hospitals about 40-50 000 were officers (based on normal ratio of officer casualties)
In the Navy on 1.1.1942 - I don't have exact number, I assume about 60 000 men.
Total in the Army and Navy by 1.1.42 about 1 100 000-1 110 000 officers.
Which indicates a shortage of about 340 000.

This shortage includes some number of officers which retired due to health conditions, were arrested, sentenced or discharged for other reasons. It's not known exactly, but I estimate it as 10-20 000. Which leaves about 320-330 000 as irrevocable casualties (dead and missing in action). Russian official source ("Soviet casualties and military losses..." by G. Krivosheev) gives 203083 irrevocable casualties of army and navy officers from 22.6 to 31.12.1941. This number is clearly understated and doesn't agree with the balance calculations given above. On other other and a post-war count by names derived from various sources which was cited in "Military cadres..." gives 233 316 officer casualties in 1941 (50 884 dead and 182 432 missing and declared dead). This number doesn't include missing and prisoners of war which were recovered during or after the war. A partial statistical data for 1 368 849 repatriated Soviet POWs counted 52 025 offciers captured during 1941 ("Soviet casualties and military losses..."). Extrapolating the same ratio to the total number of 1 836 500 repatriated POWs we arrive to some 70 000 officers taken prisoner until the end of 1941 and repatriated to the USSR. Also some number of officers who went missing or taken prisoner were recovered on Soviet territory in 1941-1944. It is known that until 1.10.44 50 441 officers recovered from occupied territories were taken to filtration camps. Probably some considerable number of officers were additionally inducted directly by the army. Taking the same % as for repatriated officer we arrive to a minimal number of 20 000.

So, finally, total losses of officers (dead and missing) in 1941 are 230 000 + 70 000 + 20 000 = 320 000 (of which 90 000 were recovered). Which is a very good agreement with the rough balance estimate above. The final conclusion is that official numbers for 1941 casualties seem to be strongly understated.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 22 Jul 2019 19:08

Art, the difference may be due to those mobilized but never inducted. In the 1993 ed. p. 339 Krivoshev estimates 1 million reservists called up but never inducted, this may explain a large portion of the difference. Assuming 8% were officers c.80,000. Also I believe that Krivosheev excludes convicts and deserters from his figures of POW 1.368 million returned to SU, 436.6 thous imprisoned and 212.4 thous deserters equals 2.016 million POWs released. The reservists called up but never inducted, convicts and deserters are treated as a demographic loss but are not given credit for honorable service.
  • MIA-POW 5,059,000
    Convicted (436,000)
    Deserters (212,400)
    Kriv Deduction (939,700)
    Returned SU (1,368,000)
    Krivoshevs MIA/POW 2,103,300
I say this may explain the difference. However note well the 939,700 is already deducted from the balance of those conscripted in the Krivosheev analysis. See 2009 ed Krivosheev pp.213-15
  • 31.812.1
    (939.7)
    (1.154.8)
    (142.8)
    29.574.8
Last edited by thorwald77 on 23 Jul 2019 00:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 22 Jul 2019 20:04

Summary Soviet Losses
  • KIA 5,187,100
    WIA 1,100,300
    Non Combat 541,900
    Border Sec 159,100
    MIA/POW 4,455,000
    Released (2,016,500)
    MIA 500,000
    Never Inducted 1,000,000
    Died sickness 267,300
    Executed 135,000
    Penal Units 422,700
    Imprisoned 436,600
    Deserters 212,400
    -
    Total Losses 12,400,900
    Not returned March 1946 190,000
    Died in Hospital 1,222,000
    Military losses 13,812,900

    Civilians 7,420,100
    Famine disease 4,100,000
    Infant mortality1,280,000
    ADK balance 26,613,000
The balance of 26.613 million fits exactly into the 1964 data on p. 79 of the ADK study. They plugged the government figure into their model! :idea:

If we drop in 226,000 Not returned Feb 1 1946 instead of March 1946 190,000 we tie out to the Illenkov's 13.850 million

Krivosheev 9,168
Forced Labor 2,164
Sickness 267
Convicted 994
Total 12,593

KIA 5,226.8
Other losses 555.5
WIA 1,102.8
MIA 5,059.0
Released (2,016.4)
Duplicates (939.7)
Abroad 180.0
Krivosheev 9,168.0

Ludskie Poteri p 180 10,181,000 Total POW/Civ taken to Germany
LESS
Ludskie Poteri p 180 (5,917,000) Released
Deserters (212,000)
Never Inducted (1,000,000)
Duplicates (-939,000)
Returned after 3/46 (10,000)
POW/MIA Krivosheev 2,103,000

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 22 Jul 2019 23:56

Balance per Army Groups &Fleets in Krivosheev
  • KIA 5,184,700
    Non Combat 534,300
    POW/MIA 4,452,300
    Subtotal detail in Krivosheev 10,171,300
    WIA 1,100,300
    Released (2,329,500)
    Abroad 2/46 225,900
    Krivosheev Total 9,168,000


    Deductions per Krivosheev 2001 Edition
    Returned USSR after 10/44 (1,368,000)
    Imprisoned (436,000)
    Deserters (212,000)
    Returned USSR before 10/44 (313,500)
    Total deductions (2,329,500)
Note Border Troops 159,100, 267,400 died sickness and 557,700 convicted are not included. Abroad 2/46 were 225,900, in 1993 ed Krivosheev 180,000

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 23 Jul 2019 00:04

Total Demographic Loss -My estimate
As at 2/1/1946

KIA 5,184,749
Non Combat 534,273.
DOW 1,102,800
Sickness 267,394.
Border Sec 159,100.
POW-MIA 3,912,283
Abroad 2/46 225,836
Convicts 557,700.
Balance losses 11,944,135

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by ljadw » 23 Jul 2019 06:57

thorwald77 wrote:
23 Jul 2019 00:04
Total Demographic Loss -My estimate
As at 2/1/1946

KIA 5,184,749
Non Combat 534,273.
DOW 1,102,800
Sickness 267,394.
Border Sec 159,100.
POW-MIA 3,912,283
Abroad 2/46 225,836
Convicts 557,700.
Balance losses 11,944,135
demographic losses and military losses are two different things .

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 23 Jul 2019 20:12

thorwald77 wrote:
22 Jul 2019 19:08
Art, the difference may be due to those mobilized but never inducted. In the 1993 ed. p. 339 Krivoshev estimates 1 million reservists called up but never inducted
I don't believe it. Both the territory occupied and the number of prisoners claimed by Wehrmacht and allies in the first days of the war were not that large. Then these border areas (Baltic and former Poland) were exactly the place with the least concentration of officer reservists. So the bulk of called-up officers most probably reached military units. "Military cadres" support this notion indirect saying that mobilization was actually excessive compared with requirements.
Also I believe that Krivosheev excludes convicts and deserters from his figures of POW 1.368 million returned to SU
About 1.84 million POWs ultimately repatriated according to Krivosheev. Which is consisted with stats of the Soviet repatriation agency cited by Zemskov. 1.37 mln number is given for October 1945, when reparation was not yet completed.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 23 Jul 2019 21:31

Art you don’t believe that one million liable for military service were captured, but this is what Kirivosheev tells us on p.339 of the 1st ed. I believe that his balance of one million are considered civilians included with the 939,700 so called duplications and 212,400 deserters that make up the 2.164 million “forced labor in Germany”.

Art you believe that the 1.368 million released POWs is a preliminary number but I believe that Krivosheev in the 2001 ed p. 462-64 gives us a full explanation of the fate of the prisoners. The 1.368 million were returned out of a total of 2.329 million released. But he is also making clear to readers that 939,000 were released for German service. I believe that the actual total of 2.329 million released is made up as follows: 1.368,000 sent home, 436,000 imprisoned, 212,000 deserters Total 2,016,000.
Golikov began his work in Oct 1944, before that time 313,000 were released bringing the total to 2,329,500.
Art what can you tell us about the fate of the 994,300 convicted and 212,400 deserters. Were their families notified or were they just reported just “missing” ? Illenkov claims he has no deserters in his card files.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 24 Jul 2019 09:34

thorwald77 wrote:
22 Jul 2019 19:08
Art, the difference may be due to those mobilized but never inducted. In the 1993 ed. p. 339 Krivoshev estimates 1 million reservists called up but never inducted, this may explain a large portion of the difference.
Actually not. It's said that the Soviet General Staff estimated in June 1942 that 0.5 mln reservists were captured. Also about 5% of reservists in western regions were exempt from mobilization for various reasons and stayed on occupied territory and were partly captured (no source for that indicated). The last part is really vaguely formulated. First, 5% of what? Then, if they were not called up then how they became captured? I really don't understand this part. In any case these are very crude estimates made without real hard data. As I said, I don't believe in their accuracy. German army claimed about 300 000 POWs captured in the first 10-12 days of the war, the bulk of them in the Belostok-Minsk cauldron. Probably they really disrupted the initial Soviet mobilization to some extent, but definitely not on such large scale.
Art you believe that the 1.368 million released POWs is a preliminary number
I don't "believe". It is said in the book ("data as of 3 October 1945") quite unequivocally. Repatriation still continued after that date. For example, according to V.Zemskov 441 130 civilians and POWs arrived from Germany in October 1945, 137 132 in November, 122 272 in December etc.
Art what can you tell us about the fate of the 994,300 convicted and 212,400 deserters
The most diverse, I guess.
By the standard procedure lists of people sentenced to execution/jail terms had to be submitted both to central agencies and local military commissariats in their families' districts. Deserters - the instruction from 1944 didn't say anything about them. As a database search indicates in very many instances there were reported in a similar way.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 24 Jul 2019 13:36

Art, here his my reconciliation of what actually happened. It may help explain why your estimate of officer casualties does not tie out.

Soviet losses- My estimate
  • KIA 5,187,100
    WIA 1,100,300
    Non Combat 541,900
    Border/Security 159,100
    POWs - MIA 4,455,600
    Returned after 10/1944 (2,016,000)
    Returned before 10/1944 (313,500)
    In German Service (939,700)
    Died sickness 267,400
    Abroad 2/1/1946 226,000
    Official statistic 8,668,200

    Adjustments:
    In German Service 939,700
    MIA 500,000
    Convicts 557,700
    Adj. for surrounded personnel 313,500
    Never inducted 1,000,000
    Returned during 2/1946 (35,000)
    Bal per schedule of conscripts 11,944,100
  • POWs per German records 5,269
    Returned per Krivosheev (2,329)
    Border/Security-MIA 103
    Returned after 10/1944 2,016
    Balance MIA/POW per Kirvosheev 5,059
In German Service 939,000 Krivosheev tells us this on p.463 of the 2001 ed.(600K+339K)
Never inducted 1,000,000 Krivosheev tells us this on p.339 of the 1993 ed.

  • Official statistic 8,668,200
    Correction "In German Service" 939,700
    MIA 500,000
    Convicts 557,700
    Correction for returned 2/1946 (35,000)
    Actual losses -My estimate 10,630,600
Note well that the 939,700 is already deducted from the balance of those conscripted in the Krivosheev analysis. See 2009 ed Krivosheev pp.213-15
The 939K is deducted twice!
Last edited by thorwald77 on 24 Jul 2019 14:58, edited 5 times in total.

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