Russian Military losses

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 03 Aug 2019 16:15

thorwald77 wrote:
29 Jul 2019 21:20
I have read Mark Solonin, I suspect that he failed Accounting in college and decided instead to
The link goes not to Solonin but to a memo written by colonel Yefremov in May 1942. This document makes it clear that the Soviet General Staff didn't have a good idea of actual causalities or a balance between losses and replacements. At least it didn't have it in May 42. As Yefremov noted available numbers of casualties were obviously incomplete and didn't quite add up with stats on replacements and or the total number of personnel inducted.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Aug 2019 19:26

I maintain that the 1942 memo is not relevant to the discussion. Solonin was spinning wheels and wasting his time. The 2010 edition of Krivosheev provides the solution to our problem. In the far distant past the Soviet General Staff prepared a reconciliation of those conscripted, they concluded that the demographic loss was 11,444,100 of the operational forces, plus 500,000 reservists were called up but not in organized units. Additional deductions from the operational forces included 436,600 imprisoned after sentencing and 212,400 deserters missing.

A schedule of those mobilized during the war p.213 put the total at 31,812,158. They deducted 2,237,300 not in the total force structure.
  • Total Called Up 31,812.2
    Called up twice (939.7) :idea:
    Medically unfit (1,154.8)
    Industrial workers (142.8)
    Total mobilized 29,574.9
Schedules in the he Krivosheev study (pp.231-40) detail operational losses that total 10.386 million, not included are 557.7 million convicts and 500,000 MIA. The detailed schedules of the Army groups and fleets support this summary analysis
  • Total reported dead and missing

    KIA 5,187.2
    DOW 1,100.3
    Non combat 541.9
    Sickness 267.3
    Border troops 159.1
    POW 4,455.6
    MIA 1,000.0
    Released (2,015.0)
    Abroad March 1946 190.0
    Convicted 557.7
    Corrections 956.8
    Subtotal 12,400.9
    Less corrections (956.8)
    Operational losses 11,444.1
  • Schedules detaling
    Allocation of Operational losses
    KIA 5,187.2
    DOW 1,100.3
    Non combat 541.9
    Sickness 267.3
    Border troops 159.1
    POW 4,455.6
    MIA 500.0
    Released (2,015.0)
    Abroad 190.0
    Subtotal 10,386.4
Krivosheev disregards the detailed analysis in the study and claims that losses were actually 9.168 million. His colleague Philimoshen claimed 2.164 million civilian deaths in forced labor. The two figures add down 11.332 million. I believe that there are alternative interpretations of the Krivosheev/ Philomshen analysis.

ONE- Krivosheev is correct and the schedules in the book are wrong.
  • KIA 5,226.8
    DOW 1,102.8
    Non combat 555.5
    "Missing" 5,059.0
    Released (2,016.0)
    Abroad 180.0
    Duplications (939.7)
    9,168.4
TWO-Krivosheev was ordered to force the figure of 9.168 million on the page because it is the official statistic of the general staff.
  • KIA/DOW 6,329.0
    Non combat 555.0
    Sickness 267.0
    MIA reported 7/1945 3,344.0
    Released (2,016.0)
    Abroad 190.0
    Add MIA 500.0
    9,169.0
THREE- Krivosheev took the operational losses of 10.386 million shown in the book and deducted convicts and deserters from the total. The general staff and Politburo wanted to show only those credited for honorable service.
  • KIA 5,226.8
    DOW 1,102.8
    Non combat 555.5
    Sickness 267.3
    "Missing" 5,059.0
    Released (2,016.5)
    Abroad 180.0
    Deserters (212.4)
    Convicts (994.3)
    Bal. Krivosveev 9,168.2
FOUR-Comrades Philimoshen and Sherviakov explained the Krivosheev difference in Ludskie Poteri p.178-81.
  • Philimoshen Analysis
    In Millions
    Captued by fascists 10.181
    Released (5.917)
    Dead/missing 4.264
    Krivosheev bal (2.100)
    Forced Labor 2.164

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thorwald77
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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 03 Aug 2019 22:22

For the Doubting Thomas
The details in the Krivosheev study don't support his figures
  • KIA 5,184.7 A
    Non combat 534.3 A
    Missing 4,452.3 A
    DOW 1,104.1 B
    Sickness 267.3 B
    Border troops 159.1 C
    Abroad 3/1946 (1,825.7) D
    MIA 500.0 C
    Penal Units 422.7 E.
    Executed 135.0 E
    MIA 500.0 E
    Per details 11,433.8

    Per Conscripted (11,444.1) D
    Difference (10.3)
A.Details in book 54 Armies & Fleets and flotillas
B.Hospital Sch in Krivosveev
C.Per Krivosheev
D.Per V. Zemeskov
E. Per Sch of Conscripted

Note Well the 939,700 duplication's have already been deducted from balance of conscripted

Mihalev does not include 500,000 MIA and has 1,836.000 abroad to come up with his total of 10.921 million.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 04 Aug 2019 08:24

thorwald77 wrote:
03 Aug 2019 19:26
I maintain that the 1942 memo is not relevant to the discussion.
I believe, it is. You were wondering if the Soviet General Staff could establish an accurate account of casualties by running a simple balance pf personnel on strength and replacement. The memo shows very clearly that in May 42 they were nowhere close to this task.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 04 Aug 2019 08:35

Art wrote:
29 Jul 2019 19:53
In September 1942 general Schadenko reported to Stalin about 4.9 million killed, missing and prisoners as of 1.09.1942. It is not completely clear how and with what method he arrived to this number.
On 12 February 1943 Schadenko reported to Stalin the following numbers of casualties:
Red Army 1941-42 - 5 950 000 killed, dead and missing, including 309 700 men dying of wounds and diseases in hospitals. Excluding deaths of patients in hospitals:
1941 - 2 982 000 killed and missing
1942 - 2 658 000 killed and missing
For comparison, "official" numbers from Krivosheev
1941 - 2 994 000
1942 - 2 994 000
You can see that 1941's numbers are almost identical. Which suggests that Soviet/Russian writers could rely fully or partly on those early estimates. So how Soviet military leadership arrived to these estimates is not only a question of historical curiosity but also a practical question.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 04 Aug 2019 10:49

thorwald77 wrote:
29 Jul 2019 21:20
Mihalev shows us a general staff report from July 1945 with 3.344 MIA/POW and 2.015 million released yielding a net loss of 1.329 million. The unexplained difference is 2.898 million.
I believe the relation with Krivosheev's numbers is quite simple. The memo from June 1945 gives 3.210 million accounted missing and POWs in the Red Army. Which was the number obtained by direct summation of casualty reports. According to Krivosheev there were 3.306 mln accounted missing in the Army and Navy. Excluding Navy's MIA (95 000 according to K.) we arrive to 3.321 missing in action belonging to the Red Army. The same number essentially. It is obviously incomplete, so K. adds 1.150 mln. estimated unaccounted missing in 1941. The numbers of Army's killed and wounded in K. are simple sums of casualty reports and they are unsurprisingly almost identical to the 1945's memo.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 04 Aug 2019 12:19

thorwald77 wrote:
03 Aug 2019 19:26
THREE- Krivosheev took the operational losses of 10.386 million shown in the book and deducted convicts and deserters from the total.
Formally speaking deserters/stragglers and men convicted to jail terms were not "demographic" losses in terms defined by Krivosheev, so this deduction makes some sense. Then, convicts sent to penal or other units were not losses in any sense. It was just a transfer of personnel from one unit to another.
Also desertions and convictions were partly included in the non-battle losses of the operational army quoted by K. Since they were lumped with other categories in one sum number it is not quite easy to extract them. That makes Krivosheev's analysis somewhat skewed.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 04 Aug 2019 14:31

Art wrote So how Soviet military leadership arrived to these estimates is not only a question of historical curiosity but also a practical question.
Top
I have taken the casualty totals in the Russian sources and have attempted to explain these totals by piecing together the various categories listed in these sources. The pieces to the puzzle should add up to the grand totals.
  • Krivosheev Schedules detaling
    Allocation of Operational losses
    KIA 5,187.2
    DOW 1,104.1
    Non combat 541.9
    Sickness 267.4
    Border troops 159.1
    POW 4,455.6
    MIA 500.0
    Released (2,016.0)
    Abroad Feb 1946 225.0
    Subtotal 10,424.3

    Other Losses
    Convicts-executed 135.0
    Convicts penal units 427.9
    Corrections 956.8
    Deserters 212.4
    Convicts Imprisoned 436.6
    Subtotal 2,168.7

    Grand Total 12,593.0

    Report 1945 11,944.1
    Deserters 212.4
    Convicts Imprisoned 436.6
    12,593.1
The unanswered question is, are the convicts and deserters in the details of the various Army/Fleets or have they been subtracted from the totals. Perhaps they are subunits listed by the NKVD. Krivosheev appears to subtract them from the casualties. My hunch is that the original paperwork is missing and that he is just guessing. Comrade Philomoshen saved the day by plugging in the demographic difference.
  • KIA 5,226.8
    DOW 1,102.8
    Non combat 555.5
    Sickness 267.3
    "Missing" 5,059.0
    Released (2,016.5)
    Abroad 180.0
    Deserters (212.4)
    Convicts (994.3)
    Bal. Krivosveev 9,168.2


Do we have any original documents that list the penal subunits and executions? I believe Krivosheev is just guessing, we need to see the original paperwork.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 04 Aug 2019 14:45

Mihalev includes the convicts in his total, that tells us that either the convicts were listed on a separate report or were deducted from the Army/Fleet totals.
  • KIA 5,184.7
    DOW 1,100.3
    Non combat 534.3
    Sickness 267.3
    Border troops 159.1
    POW 4,452.3
    MIA 500.0
    Released (2,015.0)
    Abroad 180.0
    Convicted 557.7
    Total 10,920.7 :idea:

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 08 Aug 2019 08:17

thorwald77 wrote:
29 Jul 2019 13:49
Not really, its very easy. Every unit in the field telegraphs a periodic strength report to the communications department of the General Staff in Moscow.
For information, an NKO order of 16 August 1941:
Records of personnel and equipment strength, personnel losses, prisoners and trophies in the operational army and records of personnel strength in military districts are kept in extremely awful manner. Reports on combat and numerical strength as of 10 July submitted by fronts were completely inadequate. Reports by fronts as of 20 July didn't demonstrate any considerable improvement.
The staff of the South-West Front included in its reports only one third of the front's units, even data for the Kiev Fortified Region situated close to the front's staff were missing.
In reports of the West Front such units as 45 Rifle Corps, 110 Rifle Division and 53 Rifle Division, 57 Tank Division are included simultaneously in strength numbers of two different armies.
The staff of the Kiev Military District didn't submit a report on personnel strength as of 1 July.
The staff of the Kharkov Military District submitted it ten day late.
The staff of the West Military District submitted a report 5 days late and incomplete only after a liaison officer from the General Staff was sent to the district's staff.
etc etc. Soviet reporting in the first months of the war was a little problematic.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 08 Aug 2019 14:14

Art wrote Soviet reporting in the first months of the war was a little problematic
This is correct. The Soviet General Staff study of 1966 estimated losses for these gaps in the official records. The results of the study are detailed in the Krivosheev report. The detailed schedules list the casualties of the various Army groups and fleets as well as in the major battles. According to my own analysis Krivosheev deducted convicts and died of sickness from the totals in the Soviet General Staff study to arrive at his balance of 9.168 million.

Reonciliation of Conscripted
  • KIA 5,187.2
    Non Combat 541.9
    DOW 1,100.3
    Sickness 267.4
    Border Sec 159.1
    KIA/MIA 4,455.6
    Reservists 500.0
    Released POW (2,016.0)
    Abroad 3/46 190.8
    Convicts 557.7
    Never inducted 1,000.0
    Subtotal 11,944.0

    Deserters 212.4
    Imprisoned 436.6
    Grand total 12,593.0
Mihalev points out that Red Star in May 1993 deducted the 557,700 convicts from the total of 11.944 million.


Schedules of Army Groups/Fleets
Detailed in Krivosheev
  • KIA 5,184.7
    Non Combat 534.3
    DOW 1,100.3
    Sickness 267.3
    KIA/MIA 4,452.3
    Subtotal 11,538.9

    Additions
    Border Sec 159.1
    Reservists 500.0
    Released POW (2,016.0)
    Abroad 3/46 190.8
    Grand total 10,372.8
Krivosheev Adjustments
  • KIA 5,187.2
    Non Combat 541.9
    DOW 1,100.3
    Sickness 267.4
    Border Sec 159.1
    KIA/MIA 4,455.6
    Reservists 500.0
    Released POW (2,016.0)
    Abroad 180.0
    Subtotal 10,375.5

    Deductions
    Convicts (939.7)
    Sickness (267.3)
    Grand total 9,168.5

    CONVICTS
    Deserters imprisoned 376.6
    Executed 135.2
    Penal units 427.9
    Total 939.7

Mihalev Estimate 2000
  • KIA 5,184.7
    Non Combat 534.3
    DOW 1,100.3
    Sickness 267.3
    KIA/MIA 4,452.3
    Convicts 557.7
    Border Sec 159 .1
    Reservists 500.0
    Released POW (2,015.0)
    Abroad 180.0
    Grand total 10,920.7

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 08 Aug 2019 18:17

An alternative view-What Krivosheev may have used to prepare his report

Krivosheev
  • KIA 5,226.8
    Non Combat 555.5
    DOW 1,102.8
    Sickness 267.04
    POW/MIA 5,059.0
    Released POW (2,016.0)
    Abroad 180.0
    Total Losses 10,375.3

    Deductions
    Convicts (939.7)
    Sickness (267.3)
    Net loss 9,168.4

  • POW/MIA July 45 Memo 3,344.0
    Convicts 994.0
    Deserters 212.0
    Reservists 500.0
    Abroad 10.0
    POW/MIA 5,060.0
1946 number of abroad was 190K, in Krivosheev 180K. He plugged the difference in POW/MIA

Schedules of Army Groups/Fleets detailed by Krivosheev.
  • KIA 5,184.7
    Non Combat 534.3
    DOW 1,102.8
    Sickness 267.3
    KIA/MIA 4,452.3
    Subtotal 11,541.4

    Additions
    Border Sec 159.1
    Reservists 500.0
    Released POW (2,016.0)
    Abroad 3/46 190.8
    Grand total 10,375.3
Note well that the total per the reports 10.375K plus the adjustment of 957K listed on page 231 of Krivosheev(2010) equals 11.333 million. The balance of 9.168K plus the "forced labor in Germany of 2.164K equals 11.333 million. This tells us the Russians believed the convicts and died of sickness had been counted twice.

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 21 Aug 2019 23:57

This is an alternative version that agrees with German and Soviet records
  • Germany 5,269,000
    Romania 82,000
    Finland 64,000
    Pows held 5,415,000

    Filtration Camps (355,000)
    Golikov (2,016,000)
    Total Pow loss 3,044,000

    KIA 5,226,800
    Non combat 555,500
    DOW 1,102,800
    Died Sickness 267,400
    POW Abroad 1946 226,000
    Subtotal 10,422,500
    Forced labor 2,164,300
    Corrections 5,700
    12,592,500
Corrections were made for duplications border guards total 2,500 DOW and 3,300 POW


Total per rec conscripted 11.944.100
Convicts 212.400
Imprisoned 436.600
Total 12.593.100

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Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 15 Oct 2019 23:26

I have done additional work on Soviet losses and am posting the results.

Original Reports
Details Armies & Fleets in Krivosheev
  • KIA 5,184.7
    Noncombat 534.3
    DOW 1,100.3
    Died sickness 267.3
    POWs /MIA 4,452.3
    Filtration camps (354.5)
    Golikov (2,016.0)
    Losses Krivosheev 9,168.4


Final adjusted total losses
KIA 5,187.2
Noncombat 541.9
DOW 1,100.3
Died Sickness 267.3
POW/MIA 4,455.6
Filtration camps (354.5)
Golikov returned POWs (2.016)
Deserters imprisoned 436.6
Penal units 427.9
Executed 135.0
Losses border troops 159.1
Remained abroad 180.0
Krivosheevs deductions 956.8
Actual losses 11,476.9

Add back
Filtration camps 354.5
Golikov returned POWs 2016.5
Balance dead & missing in miltary archives 13,847.9
[/list]

Reonciliation of POWs returned
  • Filtration camps (354.0)
    Golikov returned POWs (2,015)
    Deserters imprisoned 436.6
    Penal units 427.9
    Executed 135.0
    Returned POWs (1,369.5)
Note well that the 999,500 convicts are included in the combat losses well as the returned POWs. They were "reconscripted" and are duplications that zero out.

Krivosheevs deductions of those registered with military authorities
According to Krivosheev (p.231/2010 ed.) 956,800 were not included in his report for the following reasons.
1-Figure includes paramilitary(militia,partisans) as well as those called up but not inducted.
2-Duplicate registrations of losses
3-Those reported missing who survived.

The Military Archives maintains that they have the actual names of the dead and missing. In my opinion the Russians need to cross check the Military Archive files with the names of the Golikov and Filtration camp returnees. That assumes that the Golikov and filtration camp records survive.

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