Russian Military losses

[Art]

That's a known thing. According to Yu. Kilin

One of the tasks of the Center is to find out data on causalities of the Soviet armed forces in the Soviet-Finnish war. For this end the initial electronic database containing 168 024 records was reduced to 138 533 records by removal of duplicating records of casualties. Additionally data on more than Soviet POWs who died in the Finnish captivity before the exchange of prisoners in May 1940 were added to the database. As of 29 December 2014 the database contain 138 509 records of Red Army personnel who where killed, died or went missing in the Soviet-Finnish war of 1939-40.

https://sthb.petrsu.ru/journal/article.php?id=3022
I guess they are talking about the same database as indicating by close numbers (167 976 and 168 024).
Kilin's database is available online:
http://www.winterwar.karelia.ru/site/bd/
In essence it is based on mostly the same primary records as the data of the Soviet Ministry of Defense and the Main Staff from 1949-1951 (126 875 according to Krivosheev). Not that the difference (7-8%) is outstandingly large, and also the latter number didn't include nonbattle casualties.

Further on, there is a problem of duplicating records. Kilin says that he mostly cleared them. I'm a more skeptical man. A simple search by the database gives:
- Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov, private of the 115 Rifle Regiment/75 Rifle Division, born in Drozdy village of the Ostrov district, killed in action in December 1939
- Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov, private of the 115 Rifle Regiment/75 Rifle Division, born in Batalovo village of the Ostrov district, missing in action in December 1939
Obviously this is the same man corresponding to two different records. There are similar cases of duplication. Some are more subtle, and in some cases it is impossible to determine if they are duplicating or not.

That applies likewise to the 1941-1945 period. There is nor problem to count the total number of casualties records. Since they are digitized and uploaded online that would take a couple of minutes. The problem is to find the "physical" number of casualties, cleared of duplicates, repatriated POWs, recovered missing etc.

[thorwald77]

Art wrote:

The problem is to find the "physical" number of casualties, cleared of duplicates, repatriated POWs, recovered missing etc.

Lets review the balance conscripted using data in the 3rd edition of Krivoshvev.

Figures in millions:

• Red Army/Navy 6/1941 4,826
  Civilians with military 74
  Mobilized 1941-45 31,812
  Border/security 144
  Reservists 500
  Total mobilized 37,356
  
  Less:
  Red Army/Navy 6/1945 (12,839)
  Total deductions (9,693)
  POW liberated (2,016)
  Deaths in rear area hospitals 1,222
  Adj. for Deserters in post war West 180
  Total irrecoverable losses 13,850

Note 1-there were 3.798 million discharged for medical reasons of whom 2.576 million became invalides, the balance of 1.222 million died in rear area hospitals.

Note 2 Archive data does not include deserters. Adj. for Deserters in post war West 180,000

Total irrecoverable losses 13,850. I will provide a a breakout of this figure in another post.

[thorwald77]

Art wrote

The problem is to find the "physical" number of casualties, cleared of duplicates, repatriated POWs, recovered missing etc.

Total military irrecoverable losses were 13.850 million not including deserters;

The 1946 breakout of this figure including civilian losses is as follows

Figures in millions:

• KIA 5,184
  Non combat losses 534
  Border-Sec 144
  Died sickness 267
  Reservists 500
  Duplicates 939
  
  Balance less prisoners 8,668
  
  POW-MIA Army/Navy 1,879
  Civilians in Pow camps 1,476
  Soviet convicts 557
  
  Balance POW 3,912
  
  Military deserters 2/1946 225
  Civilians west 2/1946 463
  
  Balance 2nd emigration 2/1946 688
  
  
  Civilian deaths 6,074
  Siege Leningrad 658
  
  Balance civilian deaths 6,732
  
  Total war dead 20,000

8,668+3,3912+688+6,732=20,000

The figures of 5.184,749 KIA and 534,273 non combat losses are the the totals of the Army groups and fleets listed in Krivosheev. The total missing and imprisoned are 4,452,336 including penal units at the front and executed.

The figure of the POW and MIA agrees with Krivosheev and the Axis records

POW in German reports 5.163
POW in Romanian reports 82
POW in Finnish reports 64
MIA 500
Less liberated 2,329
Total POW-MIA 3,480

The figure of 2,329.5 million liberated comes from the 2001 ed of Krivosheev page 463.

The figure of 3.480 million POW MIA is broken out as follows

Germany 5,163
Romania 82
Finland 64
MIA 500
Total 3,480

Less
Liberated(2,329)
Civilian prisoners(1,476)
Border Sec (91)
Civilians (35)
Red Army Navy POW/MIA 1,879

The proof for these figures is the 1995 figures listed in Ludskie Poteri. I will post a breakout of these 1995 figures that ties out to the ADK figure of 26.613 million war dead

Note the figure of 35k civilian POWMIA is listed on Krivosheev 3rd ed p.229

[thorwald77]

Art wrote

The problem is to find the "physical" number of casualties, cleared of duplicates, repatriated POWs, recovered missing etc.

The 1995 figures were revised to agree with the ADK figure of 26.6 million

Numbers millions

KIA 5,187.
Died wounds 1,100
Non combat 555.
Sickness 267.
Convicts 563.
POW-MIA 3,895
Liberated -2016
Civilians 94.
Border Security 159.

Balance Military 9,804.

Balance POWs 1,476
Military deserters Feb 46 225
2nd emigration Feb 46 463

Forced labor in Germany 2,164

Civilians killed 6,075
Balance civilian reservists 406
"Duplications" dead or missing 939

Exterminated by Germans 7,420

Siege of Leningrad 658

Died in rear area hospital 1,222

Famine disease 4,100

Increase Infant mortality 1300
-
Total of the balances above is 26,668 million

The ADK total was corrected to reflect the current figures for the 2nd emigration. Philimoshin used the balance from Feb 1946 688k. The current total is 631k which brings total losses to 26.613 million. 180k + 451k = 631k

I will post another schedule to list the total military irrecoverable losses of 13,850 million

[Art]

In essence it is based on mostly the same primary records as the data of the Soviet Ministry of Defense and the Main Staff from 1949-1951 (126 875 according to Krivosheev).

It should be added that this registry of casualties consisted of two part:
- names of casualties submitted by military units during the war
- names revealed by census of relatives after the end of WW2 (1946 or later).

Here were have the same problems as for the 1941-45 war:
- overlap of these two independent body of data. Ivan Ivanov reported missing by his relatives from the Pskov region (both the exact unit and date unknown) and Ivan Ivanov killed in action in the 49 Rifle Division in December 1939 - were they the same men or not? It's impossible to tell in very many cases.
- attribution of casualties to irrevocable military casualties during the war. People could die outside military, they could emigrate, they could be arrested, sentenced, desert etc.
Then the GPW started just a little more than a year later then the end of the Soviet-Finnish War. It is quite possible that many people reported missing by their relatives actually perished after 22.6.41.

As far as the SFW is concerned there is a more or less exact number of ~190 000 wounded in action which is supported by medical statistics. However much you try the global number of killed in action and deaths of wounds cannot be larger than 1/2 of the number of wounded. Also there are non-battle casualties (several thousand) and 6000 POWs. All that combined the total number irrevocable casualties cannot be much larger than 100 thousand in my opinion. The larger figure of casualties in the name registry could result from duplication and other effects described above.

[Art]

In general, it seems that many people are unaware of the fact that the Russian online database of casualty records with a pretty powerful functionality exists for more than 10 years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OBD_Memorial
These database contains practically all names of casualties Red Army, Navy and NKVD troops which were collected by their central apparatus during or after the war. A scan through causality lists submitted by military units and hospitals yielded 11 311 863 records with the following breakdown by months, years and causes:

OBD1.png

OBD2.png

This raw output contains many cases of duplication where two or more records corresponded to the same men. Also many men reported missing were later recovered as repatriated POWs or in some other ways and there were quite a number of cases of erroneous reporting (e.g. evacuated wounded reported as killed in actions). On the other hand this registration by names was be no means complete, especially in 1941 as evident from the total number or records from this year. The reasons were either poor quality of reporting or the fact that HQs that were supposed to make this reporting were destroyed altogether. As described in another topic after the war the Soviet General Staff tried to make an accounting of casualties who were not covered by normal reporting by collecting info from relatives which yielded several million additional names. There is still a problem of combining these different two body of data which makes arriving to some final number quite tricky.

[thorwald77]

Art wrote

These database contains practically all names of casualties Red Army, Navy and NKVD troops which were collected by their central apparatus during or after the war.

Art I have no doubt that this reflects the names in the database. However my posting yesterday is in agreement with the following:

1-The Balance conscripted 14.823 million less 2.016 million liberated POW 12.807 million. The Archive figure of 13.850 million adds 1.222 died in hospital less 180,000 deserters.

2-The Krivosheev study details

• KIA 5,184.7
  Non combat 534.2
  POW-MIA 3,894.5
  Liberated POW(2,016.4)
  Deserters 2/1946 225.0
  DOW 1,100.0
  Sickness 267.0
  Convicts 557.7
  Border Sec144.0
  Civilians 94.6
  Total 9,985.3

3-The remaining balance of 2.822 million was plugged into civilian casualties

• Balance POWs 1,476.0
  Military deserters 225.0
  2nd emigration 463.0
  Total 2.164

• Civilians killed 6,075.0
  "Duplications"939.7
  Balance conscripted 405.3
  Exterminated Civilians 7.420

4-The official version 9.168 million excludes the convicts, border troops and the 94,000 civilians

• KIA 5,187.2
  Non combat 555.6
  POW-MIA 3,894.5
  less Liberated (2,016.5)
  DOW 1,100.3
  Sickness 267.3
  Deserters 180.0
  Total 9,168.4

[thorwald77]

Thank you Art for posting the database figures, they fit into puzzle perfectly

• KIA 5,187.2
  Non combat 555.6
  DOW 1,100.3
  Sickness 267.3
  POW-MIA 3,896.0
  Liberated (2,016.0)
  Border Security 159.1
  Civilians 94.6
  Executed 135.0
  Penal units 422.7
  Deserters 180.0
  Subtotal 9,981.8
  Duplication 939.7
  Total reported losses 10,921.5

Reconciliation POW-MIA balance

Germany 5,163.
Romania 82.
Finland 64.
Released (2,329.)
MIA 500.0
Total 3,480

Red Army Navy 1,879
Border Sec 90
Civilians with military 35
"exterminated civilians" 1,476
Total 3,480

[thorwald77]

I will post the following schedules to update my estimate of Soviet war Losses

1- Detailed schedules Krivoshev
Fronts Flotillas

2- Summary Krivoshev
Army Navy Losses

3- Schedules Krivoshev 1993

4- Schedule Krivoshev 1993
Reconciliation Conscripted

5- Schedule
Details Ex State Comm 1946

6- Schedule
Military losses 1946 estimate

7- Official losses 1961-89

8- Official losses 1993 - present

9- ADK population Balance

10- Losses Mihalev corrections 2001

11- Forced Labor in Germany

These are my own estimates based on Soviet and Russian open sources, I do not have access to the MOD internal documentation. Living in Russia is a lot different than the west you do not find Waldo, he finds you.

[thorwald77]

Detailed Schedules Krivovisheev
Fronts Flotillas

Millions
KIA 5,184.7
WIA 1,100.3
Security/Border 42.1
Died sickness 267.3
Deserters 225.0
Civilians 94.6
Convicts 557.7
POW/MIA 3,800.0
Released POW (2,016.0)
Irrocoverable Losses 9,255.7

• KIA 5,184.7
  Non combat losses 534.3
  Died wounds 1,103.3
  MIA 4,452.3
  Released POW (2,016.0)
  Irrocoverable Losses 9,255.3

Krivovisheev
Russian ed 1993 pp.232-311
Russian ed 2001 pp.322-399
Russian ed 2010 pp.367-443
English ed 1997 pp.164-118

[thorwald77]

Summary Krivovisheev
Army Navy Losses

• Army 10,008,434
  Navy 153,741
  Wounded 1,100,327
  Far East 9,780
  All Losses 11,274,533
  Released POW (2,016,480)
  Irrecoverable Losses 9,255,802

[thorwald77]

Schedules Krivoshev 1993

• Millions
  KIA 5,187.2
  DOW 1,100.3
  Security/Border 55.8
  Died sickness 267.0
  Deserters 180.0
  Civilians 94.6
  POW/MIA 3,800.0
  Released POW (2,016.5)
  Total 8,668.4

Not included 562K Convicts and 1.607K POWs

[thorwald77]

Schedule Krivovisheev 1993
Reconciliation Conscripted

• Millions
  KIA 5,187.1
  Died wounds 1,100.3
  Died sickness 267.3
  Convicts 557.7
  POW/MIA 4,908.0
  MIA 500.0
  Released POW (2,016.0)
  Re-conscripted 939.7
  Reserves not inducted 500.0
  Irrecoverable losses 11,944.1

• Army -Navy 6/41 4,826,907
  Civilians in military 6/41 74,945
  Mobilized 31,812,158
  Surrounded personnel re-conscripted (939,700)
  
  Rejected medical reasons (1,154,800)
  transferred to civilian economy (142,800)
  Force total 7/1/1945 (12,839,800)
  Discharged during the war (9,692,800)
  Irrecoverable losses 11,944,110

[thorwald77]

Schedule
Details Ex State Comm 1946
Millions
Security/Border 144.0
Civilians in military 94.6
Deserters 2/1/1946 225.0
Civilians killed 4,500.0
Leningrad siege 649.0
2nd Emigration 2/1/1944 462.0
Total 6,074.6

Note well that the balance of 649K deaths in Leningrad siege was the actual figure cited at Nurnberg in 1946.

[thorwald77]

Schedule
Military losses 1946 estimate

• Millions
  KIA 5,187
  Died wounds 1,100
  Died sickness 267
  Convicts 557
  POW/MIA 4,908
  MIA 500
  Released POW (2,016)
  Security/Border 144
  Civilians in military 94
  Deserters 171
  Total Losses 10,912
  Less Stalin figure (7,000)
  Balance Pow deaths 3,912

• KIA 5,187.2
  Died wounds 1,100.3
  Security/Border 55.0
  Convicts 562.9
  Civilians in military 94.6
  Stalin figure 7,000.0