Qvist wrote:Thank you for a very interesting post generally, but I do not understand how this can be correct. As far as I know, Krivosheev established his figures not on the basis of demographic calculations, but on the basis of the loss reports of Red Army formations. So, how could natural mortality rates, Soviet citizens fighting on the German side, Moldavians in the Romanian army or post-war refugees factor into this?
Sorry for confusing you with the statements. Definitely Krivosheev based his research on the loss reports of RKKA units so his research does not have anything to do with Soviests fightig on the Geramn side and Moldavians in the Romanian army. I just meant that they are included in the general rus cas. Mea culpa.
Maksudov said that the total losses of KIA and dead POW should be calculated minus the average natural mortality rate as people mentionned in the reports were not only killed but died of natural causes (some of them were about 50).
Also, what you say about how German losses have been established fundamentally pertains just specifically to Rüdiger Overmans study, which is demographically based and to which, incidentally, the objection of failureto account for natural mortality rates would be a legitimate objection. The contemporary casualty figures that can be read out of the archival documentation does not exclude Germans born outside the 1937 borders, nor do they exclude Volksdeutsche from the Balkans.
Can't complain. But not everything is clear for me about the German losses. Correct the figures if I am not right. German army counted 3.214k servicemen as for March 1, 1939; Also 17.893k were drafted during the period from June 1, 1939 till April 30, 1945; Sum: about 21,1k servicemen total; 2.000k were directed to the industry; 2.310k were invalided from service, charged, deserted etc; About 3.357k got POW before May 9, 1945; Also 4,500k surrended after May 9, 1945; KIA and died of wounds - 3.810k. We have about 4.500k people disappeared. Where are they?
I believe Darrin correct here (below) in pointing out Ilienkovs figure of 11 million are not for irrecoverable losses, but just deaths.
In the Russian text of his article Ilienkov used "безвозвратные потери" and that means irrevocable losses
"Мы получаем цифру безвозвратных потерь наших Вооруженных Сил за время Великой Отечественной войны около 13 млн. 850 тысяч человек"
translation: we got the figures of irrevocable losses of our Armed Forces during the period of Great Patriotic War of about 13 mln 850 thousand people" (http://conmit.electronics.kiae.ru/war/j ... -2_0-5.asp
So when they came down to figures about 11 million they got very close to Krivosheev's irrevocable losses of about 11 million too (and then he excludes those who were liberated).
Surely this must be a misunderstanding? Sokolov's figure must reasonably have referred to all deaths, not just military?
Nope. He claims that the total death rate is 43.448k and 26.548k are military death rate. (http://www.genstab.ru/kia39-45.htm
) Unfortunatley in Russian. There is also the reference to the criticism of his method there. Which is 100% crap (I mean the method not criticism).
Here again there must be some misunderstanding on your part. 7.8 million deaths is one thing, 7.8 million irrecoverable casualties makes no sense whatsoever, given the large number of POWs and the overall scope of casualties (some 30 million). By the way - already as it is, it is somewhat difficult to concile Overmans' figures and Krivosheev's, unless a much larger proportion of the German casualties resulted in deaths than was the case with the soviets, for which it is hard to envisage any very good reason. This is perhaps not in itself very surprising given the fundamentally different methods employed by the two, but this does suggest in my opinion that it would be no great surprise if Krivosheev's figure of deaths should be adjusted somewhat upwards. That though remains to be seen.
Again, you are right - 7,8million is a death rate not irrevocable losses. But I cannot agree with yourt overall scope of casualties among Soviet citizens (30 million).
The total population of SU in 1941 was 196,7 mln. The total population of SU in 1945 - 170,5 mln. people, including those who were born before 22.06.1941 - 159,5 mln. Total loss rate during the period of war - 37,2 mln. Mortality rate of infants born after 22.06.1941 - 1,3 mln. Average natural mortality rate (1,3% as for 1940) for the whole period of war - minimum 11,9 million. Total war casualties of the USSR (37,2 + 1,3 - 11,9) - 26,6 million people. (Krivosheev - The data was provided by GOSKOMSTAT - Russian State Statistcs Committee). But we should exclude from those figures the refuges from the Soviet Union (2,5 million Poles, 1,75 mln Germans, 0,25 mln Baltic people plus other nations total about 5,5 mln people - Narody Rossii, Enciclopedia, M. 1994, p. 61). So in the result the total death toll caused by war is about 21 million. So the rigid and infallible Comrad Stalin was as sure as rifle when he dropped that the Soviet people lost 20 mln people in the war. I presume he knew what happened to the extra 1mln (they were spying around abroad).