Russian Military losses

[F/PAUL]

Given the fact that Kiroshev demonstrates a strong soviet bend, his figures are probably on the down side. I regard them as official minimum casualties with the very strong possibility that the numbers are considerably higher. There are also issues involving the accuracy of russian record keeping (mentioned by Glantz) so his figures are not absolute.

[Urmel]

I believe that aliens ate my Buick because I really like the X-Files. Seems about the same amount of factual basis.

[kon]

Russian civil losses about 6 millions,not 18 millions as Krivoshein speak and 20 millions troops killed and died pows
for example,Krivoshein talk that in Germany died 1,4 millions russians workers,but german documents tell about 80 thousand died on jule 1944.
Understand?Russian falsifiers speak about 1,4 million workers died in Germany. Real figure no more than 200 thousand.

[antero59]

There are strong doubts about Soviet military losses. I take just one small example. During battle of Karelian Istmus (june-july 1944) finnish historician Tapio Tiihonen was checking very carefully soviet statistics of marchall Govorovs units, and claimed losses/reserves. Tiihonen studied about 14 years of this relatively huge and furious battle and found about 28 000 cap of soviet losses. Official numbers of losses between 10th of june 1944 and late july 1944 were 105 000 soldiers. But after checking these numbers Tiihonen found at least 28 000 "missing" soldiers. It's about 25% of official combat losses.

Tiihonen also found some small questionable losses that might have put losses of Govorov troops to maximum 142 000 soldiers ( 35% cap between this figure and official numbers). When Govorov started the offensive he had about 270 000 soldiers, 600 allkinda tanks and some 1000 aircrafts (24 infantry divisions, 2 arthillery divisions, 5 artillery brigades, 13 tank brigades, 17 elite tank regiments+ reserves for them + special units)

So. It could be rather early to say anything about Soviet military losses. In 1944 Soviet U must have much better changes to keep their statistics in better form comparing great confusion and mess of years 1941-42. If there was gaps like these one in 1944, then how reliable numbers these "official numbers" of losses during 1941-42 can actually be?

[Qvist]

The essential problem here is that Krivosheev's methodology is unknown, apart from some fairly general allusions. We don't know what (if any) steps his group has taken in order to adjust for low reporting, especially in cases of catastrophic defeat where such problems always occur. In 1941 particularly, I think it makes good sense to regard his figures as minimums, rather than as final and established figures. On the whole and with these reservations however it also seems justified to regard them as adequate, unless there are specific reasons to question them. Firstly there is rarely anything better available, and secondly it does not usually affect the analysis much if they should be a good deal higher. The Soviet losses in most operations and periods are already so high, especially relative to the opponent, that the conclusions to draw from them would be largely the same. Higher figures would merely underline conclusions already drawn.

cheers

[Art]

Russian civil losses about 6 millions,not 18 millions as Krivoshein speak and 20 millions troops killed and died pows

How are these numbers derived? I guess they are simply sucked from a finger. 20 military deaths are not compatible either with balance calculations or with demogrpahic data. Some information on the balance method can be found in this thread:
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 9&start=15

[Art]

The essential problem here is that Krivosheev's methodology is unknown, apart from some fairly general allusions. We don't know what (if any) steps his group has taken in order to adjust for low reporting, especially in cases of catastrophic defeat where such problems always occur.

I believe he decribes the method in general. For units completely defeated figures from the latest available strength report were added the the "missing in action" category. Otherwise no adjustment was made as I understand.

[kon]

В советские времена считалось,в эвакуации находились 1014 тысяч белорусов,в 90-е годы историки пересчитали,получилось 1,5 млн.Не учтены призванные из числа эвакуированных в советский тыл,а также партизаны и мирные граждане,привлечённые к боевым действиям в ходе освобождения Беларуси и мобилизованные на территории Германии из угнанных рабочих.В Красную Армию были мобилизованы 1,7 млн белорусов,по официальным данным 1,3 млн.Таким образом гражданские потери Беларуси в годы войны завышены на 900 тысяч

In a Soviet period was considered, in evacuation were 1014 thousand Byelorussians, in 90th years historians have counted, it has turned out 1,5 million.Are not considered called from among evacuated in the Soviet back and also guerrillas and the peace citizens involved in operations during clearing of Belarus and mobilised for territories of Germany from stolen workers.In Red Army 1,7 million Byelorussians have been mobilised,according to official figures 1,3 million.Thus civil losses of Belarus in days of war are overestimated on 900 thousand.

[Art]

Well, that is not what I asked. I was interested in where the 20 millions figure originated from. Why 20 but not 1, 10, 25 or 40?

[kon]

general demographic losses 27 million,6-7 million civil losses and 20 military

[kon]

Badly that I do not know English, but there is online translators and think sense is clear.
In Soviet Union there was an awful hunger of 1932-1933, have died 7 million persons. The Soviet statistics to hide such demographic failure, overestimated a population. On census of 1939 the real population was 167,6 million person, is overestimated on 3 million to 170,6.
http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2004/0171/analit06.php
Proceeding from this data the pre-war population of Belarus is overestimated on 100 thousand. A victim among the peace population are overestimated on 1 million.


Germans, you understand that I have written? You did NOT kill one million civilians of Belarus in days of war

[Art]

In Soviet Union there was an awful hunger of 1932-1933, have died 7 million persons. The Soviet statistics to hide such demographic failure, overestimated a population. On census of 1939 the real population was 167,6 million person, is overestimated on 3 million to 170,6.

I guess it would be useful if to have an understanding of method and sources Andreev et al. used for their calcualtion of demographic losses and how they relate to issues of demographic statistics. First of all, I don't fully understand what exactly is meant by "Soviet statistics". Basically population movement was recorded by routine registration of deaths and births, but apart from this there were two censuses in 1937 and 1939. It's generally assumed that routine registration was incomplete, though the statemement that it didn't register giant excess death rate in 1933 is wrong - it did. The census data was however completely independent of routine registration and allready the census of 1937 demonstrated that the population differed from the statistical estimates made previously (see "Kurman gap" in Google). Then Andreev with coauthors estimated the USSR population as of January 1941 using a projection of the population as of January 1939. For the second they adjusted data of the 1939 census and obtainined the estimate of 168,5 millions. The consclusion is that neither incompleteness of routine registration data nor inflation of population size by authorities in 1939 don't discredit the estimate of war-related demogrpahic losses made by Andreev et al., just because they didn't rely on them.

[Art]

general demographic losses 27 million,6-7 million civil losses and 20 military

And how are the losses of civilians obtained? It must be said that Krivosheev an others used the opposite method, namely military losses were subtracted from the general losses on order to calculate civilians losses. In principle it is obvious why it was made so. Military losses were registered by military channels (how well is another question), while civilian losses on the occupied territories were not registered at all. So losses of civilians is a very difficult matter. Then I must repeat what I have allready said - 20 millions military losses dont' look reasonable at all. In all 30,665 million served in Soviet Armed forces during the war (excluding mobilized for labor employment). By June 1945 in the Army, Fleet, hospitals and military formations of civilian organizations there were roughly 12 million men. The difference is 18,7 million, which is allready less than 20. Then about 6 millions men were discharged from the Army and Fleet due to wounds and diseases, transferred to NKVD troops, allied troops, sentenced etc, about 1,8 POWs returned from captivity. Taking all this into account one should conclude that the Soviet Army simply couldn't lose 20 million men.

[antero59]

In Encyclopedia of Otava (Finland, 1979) gave numbers of Soviet totall losses of 20 600 000. 13 600 000 were soldiers and 7 000 000 civilians. Souce they used was United Nations (1948) and completed later info.

We don't know exactly the reason why Soviet Union didn't want to give info about their population just after the war. Did they want to hide the huge numbers of casualties? There are indeed very very strong doubts about civilian losses being bigger than military losses.

And on the other hand it's very interesting that Rydiger Overmans has overestimated the German military losses (5,3 million while most realiable numbers are between 4,2-4,5 million).

[kon]

I do not know who is Andreev,but read a good article Russian demographer

И.В. Сталин лично положил начало использованию фальсифицированных цифр о населении, чтобы скрыть ужасные последствия голода 1932-1933 гг., вызванного его собственной политикой. На XVII съезде ВКП(б) он объявил, что население Советского Союза к концу 1933 года достигло 168 млн8. Как вспоминал М.В. Курман, который работал в то время в ЦУНХУ9, именно Сталин приписал к результатам, сделанных статистиками вычислений, около 8 млн. человек. Позже в беседе с главой ЦУНХУ он сказал, что сам знает, какие цифры давать10. Благодаря публикации архивных документов, сегодня мы знаем, что на начало 1934 года данная статистиками цифра численности населения была лишь 160465,2 тыс. человек, что указывало на снижение по сравнению с 1933 годом11. Постсоветские оценки потерь населения в период насильственной коллективизации и голода 1932-1933 гг. приходят к цифре около 7 млн. человек12.

В 1935 году Сталин вновь прибег к пропагандистскому использованию демографии: для создания видимости процветания населения Советского Союза, он объявил заведомо неверные сведения о годовом естественном приросте в 3 млн. человек13. Вообще в 1930-е гг. тезис о якобы быстром росте населения СССР советской пропагандой использовался часто. Произвольное манипулирование статистическими данными14 в этот период ставит вопрос о границах, за которыми статистика населения вообще перестает отражать реальность15.

Перепись 1937 года показала численность населения СССР всего в 162 млн. Поскольку она обнаружила лживость заявлений Сталина и советской пропаганды, власти объявили ее результаты "дефектными"16. Их рассекретили только в эпоху гласности. В 1939 году провели новую перепись, которая в результате прямой фальсификации позволила выйти на цифру в 170 млн. человек. Эту цифру Сталин объявил на XVIII съезде партии еще до того, как результаты переписи могли быть целиком обработаны17.

В действительности перепись 1939 года дала цифру в 167,6 млн. человек, которая была завышена почти на 3 млн18. В официальные результаты переписи преднамеренно были включены данные на более одного млн. человек из специальных бланков для проверки правильности счета в переписи ("контрольные бланки"). После чего с учетом их общая цифра населения СССР была еще раз увеличена на один процент. Ясно, что численность населения СССР к началу 1939 года была меньше тех 168 млн., о которых Сталин объявил в 1934 году на XVII съезде ВКП(б). Однако "окончательные результаты" переписи 1939 года, опубликованные ЦСУ в 1956 году после смерти Сталина, содержали цифру около 170,6 млн19.


translate

IV Stalin personally initiated the use of falsified figures on the population to hide the terrible effects of famine 1932-1933 biennium. Caused by his own policies. At the XVII Congress of VKP (b) he declared that the people of the Soviet Union by the end of 1933 reached 168 mln8. How to remember MV Kurman, who worked at the time in TSUNHU9, Stalin is attributed to the results of calculations made by statisticians, about 8 million people. Later in an interview with the head TSUNHU he said that he himself knows what the figures davat10. With the publication of archival documents, today we know that at the beginning of 1934, the statistical figure of the population was only 160,465.2 thousand, indicating a decrease compared with 1933 godom11. Assessment of post-Soviet population losses during the period of forced collectivization and famine 1932-1933 biennium. come to a figure of about 7 million chelovek12.

In 1935, Stalin once again resorted to the use of propaganda Demography: to create prosperity for the people probably the Soviet Union, he declared the obviously incorrect information about the annual natural growth rate of 3 million chelovek13. Actually in the 1930-ies. thesis on the alleged rapid population growth USSR Soviet propaganda was used frequently. Arbitrary manipulation of statistics dannymi14 in this period raises the question of the boundary beyond which the population statistics in general ceased to reflect realnost15.

The census of 1937 showed the population of the USSR in the 162 million As she discovered the lie to the statements of Stalin and Soviet propaganda, the authorities announced the results of its "defective", 16. Their only to declassify in the era of openness. In 1939, conducted a new census, which, as a result of direct falsification allowed to reach the figure of 170 million. This figure Stalin declared at XVIII Congress of the party even before the census results could be entirely obrabotany17.

In fact, the census of 1939 gave a figure of 167.6 million, which was inflated by nearly 3 mln18. In the official census results have been deliberately included data on more than one million of special forms to verify the account in the census (control blanks). After taking into account the total population of the Soviet Union the figure was again increased by one percent. It is clear that the population of the Soviet Union by the beginning of 1939 was less than 168 million, of which Stalin announced in 1934 at the XVII Congress of VKP (b). However, the final results of Census 1939, published by CSO in 1956, after Stalin's death, included a figure of about 170.6 mln19.