How many Soviet citizens were killed in World War Two?

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Post by Art » 29 Jan 2008 15:21

thorwald77 wrote:Andreev, EM, et al, ''Naselenie Sovetskogo Soiuza, 1922-1991''. Moscow, Nauka, 1993 has an population estimate of the annexed territories of 20.270 million

For what territories exactly?
Emmigration Germans (392)

Does it stand for pre-war resettlement arranged with Germany or war-time displacement of Soviet Germans?

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Alex Yeliseenko
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Post by Alex Yeliseenko » 29 Jan 2008 15:57

thorwald77 wrote:Tuva 100


Be cautious with figures on Tuva Arat Respublic. More than half of its population had the Soviet citizenship till 1939.

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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 16:22

Alex Yeliseenko wrote:
thorwald77 wrote:Tuva 100


Be cautious with figures on Tuva Arat Respublic. More than half of its population had the Soviet citizenship till 1939.


My post was an attempt to make sense of the Andreev statistic of 20.270 million in the annexed territories. Do we have a Russian source that gives the actual breakdown?

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Post by Alex Yeliseenko » 29 Jan 2008 16:45

thorwald77 wrote:
Alex Yeliseenko wrote:
thorwald77 wrote:Tuva 100


Be cautious with figures on Tuva Arat Respublic. More than half of its population had the Soviet citizenship till 1939.


My post was an attempt to make sense of the Andreev statistic of 20.270 million in the annexed territories. Do we have a Russian source that gives the actual breakdown?


The Russian source differing figures Andreev?

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thorwald77
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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 16:54

Alex Yeliseenko wrote:
thorwald77 wrote:
Alex Yeliseenko wrote:
thorwald77 wrote:Tuva 100


Be cautious with figures on Tuva Arat Respublic. More than half of its population had the Soviet citizenship till 1939.


My post was an attempt to make sense of the Andreev statistic of 20.270 million in the annexed territories. Do we have a Russian source that gives the actual breakdown?


The Russian source differing figures Andreev?


NO the details of the Andreev figure of 20.270 million

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Post by Alex Yeliseenko » 29 Jan 2008 17:11

I shall look at the sources. It will be not so fast (a lot of work). Probably which that at me is.

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Post by Art » 29 Jan 2008 17:28

Art wrote:Now a question: what were mistakes made by Krivosheev when comparing balance loss with reported loss?

No response followed, so it's me to answer. The most striking thing is that figure #1 (reported losses) includes the losses of NKVD troops, while the balance figure doesn't (it's quite obviously follows from the method of calculation). So the real difference between the numbers produced with the two methods is not 500 thousands but 500 + 159 thousands (NKVD troops losses), that is roughly 660 000. The second error is somewhat less evident. Using the balance method Krivocheev recieved the 11 944,1 thousands deficit, and interprets this deficit as a number of dead and missing. However, as we remeber roughly 940 thousands men were registered as missing but returned to the Soviet Armed Forces by the end of the war and thus are not included in the balance deficit. So to recieve the correct number of dead and missing one have to add them to the deficit figure. The same can be explained in the other way: the number of men mobilized was corrected to exclude double count, that means that 940 thousands discussed are subtracted from it. Hence in fact Krivosheev subtracts this number twice, first time from the number of men mobilized, second time from the calculated deficit, that is, of course, incorrect.

An attempt to made a correct calculation using the balance method was made by professor Mikhalev. He took into account the two aforementioned mistakes and then he used more modern figures for the Soviet Armed Forces Strength in June 1941 and June 1945 published in the handbooks "The combat and numerical compsotition of the Soviet Armed Forces in 1941-45" produced by the Institute for Military History. Namely it's 4 629, 5 thousands men in ranks on 22.06.1941 (Handbook #1) and 10 549,9 thousands in ranks by June 1945 (Handbook #11). Taking all the other components the same as used by Krivocheev, he obtains 22 280,2 thousands for total "outs" (as opposed to 21 636,9 thousands in Krivosheev) and 12 587,4 thousands for deficit attributable to losses. The total dead and missing figure is obtained by adding 939,7 thousands (missing returned under military control by the end of the war), that is 13 527,1 thousands. To obtain demographical loss (dead and non-returned missing) one have to subtract 1 836,6 thousands POWs repatriated after the war from the deficit, that gives us 10 750,8 thousands. As we remeber that figures stands for the losses of the Army and Navy, to get the full losses we have to add the same figures for the NKVD troops. So the final result is 13 698 thousands dead and missing (as opposed to 11 944,1 thousands calcualted by Krivosheev), of them 10 921,9 thousands are demographical losses, i.e. dead and non-returned missing (9 168,4 thousands according to Krivosheev).

Mikahlev's method IMO has its own weak points, but at least it seems to be more consistent than Krivosheev's one.
Last edited by Art on 30 Jan 2008 09:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 17:31

Alex Yeliseenko wrote:I shall look at the sources. It will be not so fast (a lot of work). Probably which that at me is.


We need to check the number, if it is too high then total losses are overstated. My hunch is that the Soviets underestimated emigration out of the country and overstated casualties

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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 18:58

Art wrote:
Art wrote:Now a question: what were mistakes made by Krivosheev when comparing balance loss with reported loss?


This is excellant, I am learning a lot on the Axis History Forum. Thank you Art :D

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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 19:09

thorwald77 wrote:
Alex Yeliseenko wrote:I shall look at the sources. It will be not so fast (a lot of work). Probably which that at me is.


We need to check the number, if it is too high then total losses are overstated. My hunch is that the Soviets underestimated emigration out of the country and overstated casualties


Western and Polish sources put the numberof Poles & Jews coming out of the USSR at 2.3 million. Romanian emmigration out of Besserabia and Bukovina in an unknown quantity. We need a good study of the Romanian population in the war. Also the 215,000 Soviet dead in the German Army don't belong with Soviet war dead, they were really emmigrants, in my opinion.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 30 Jan 2008 05:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 19:31

Do we have details on those 29,775 million conscripted?

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Post by thorwald77 » 29 Jan 2008 19:54

On the Dupuy Institute forum I read a post a few years ago that claimed there is a senior Archivist in the Russian Armed Forces, Sergey Aleksandrovich Il’enkov who has proof that the number of dead and missing is 13.8 million based on actual personnel files. Is there anyone with further information?

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Post by thorwald77 » 30 Jan 2008 01:35

Looking at Kirvosheev’s numbers I see 34.476 M conscripted, 12,840 M on duty at the end of the war and 9,692 M discharged during the war. The remainder 11,944 M are dead or missing. I assume that the 1,836 M liberated POW and 940 M reconscripted servicemen are either on duty or discharged by the end of the war, they are no longer among the missing.

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Post by thorwald77 » 30 Jan 2008 01:41

[
Emmigration Germans (392)

Does it stand for pre-war resettlement arranged with Germany or war-time displacement of Soviet Germans?


Pre War emmigration in 1940-41

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Post by Art » 30 Jan 2008 11:29

Art wrote:As we remeber that figures stands for the losses of the Army and Navy, to get the full losses we have to add the same figures for the NKVD troops.

159 100 plus 12 000 losses in the Far-East campaign of 1945.

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