How many Soviet citizens were killed in World War Two?

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Post by Art » 30 Jan 2008 11:38

thorwald77 wrote:On the Dupuy Institute forum I read a post a few years ago that claimed there is a senior Archivist in the Russian Armed Forces, Sergey Aleksandrovich Il’enkov who has proof that the number of dead and missing is 13.8 million based on actual personnel files. Is there anyone with further information?

Here the article is:
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/ubb/Forum ... 00051.html
The original Russian variant was published in the VIA
As far as I know after clearing the database from doubles they arrived to the figure 11+ millions.

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Post by Art » 30 Jan 2008 11:49

thorwald77 wrote:Do we have details on those 29,775 million conscripted?

That can be useful:
viewtopic.php?p=1018916#1018916
The table includes 2237.3 thousands men subjected to double conscription, of them 939,7 thousands men were registered as missing in action and then were reconscripted on the previously occuppied territories, 1 154,8 thousands were discharged due to wounds or sickness and 142,8 thousands transferred from the Armed Forces to other organization for labor employment and then mobilized again.

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Post by Art » 30 Jan 2008 17:03

thorwald77 wrote: I assume that the 1,836 M liberated POW and 940 M reconscripted servicemen are either on duty or discharged by the end of the war, they are no longer among the missing.

Both Krivosheev and Mikhalev assume that reconcripted soldiers returned to the Army ranks by the end of the war and repatriated POWs after. The first assumption is as far as I can guess true, the second is questionable. The Krivosheev's figure for POWs is rather close to one given by Zemskov from repatriation organs statistics, namely 1 825 774 former POWs repatriated of them 286 299 were so-called internal repatriants, that means that they didn't realy leave the territory of the USSR (in 1941 borders) but were repatriated from the western regions of the country. The key thing is that significant number of repatriants were returned under the USSR's control allready before the end of the war, according to Zemskov almost two millions (both civilian and former POWs) were registered by repatriation organs by 1st June 1945. That means that some number of POWs returned to ranks before June 1945, that is the date for which the balance is calculated. That is one of the weak points of Mikahlev's calculations.

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Post by thorwald77 » 30 Jan 2008 18:34

Thanks Art for that information, unfortunately that Mikhalev book is not available in the US.

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Post by thorwald77 » 30 Jan 2008 18:47

Another issue is the 180,000 POW that remained in the west, they do not appear to be in the Krivosheev calculation. The figure of 180,000 comes from the book Ludsdkie Poteri. How do they fit into the puzzle?

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Post by thorwald77 » 30 Jan 2008 20:15

My calculation for Soviet losses is:

Confirmed dead: 6,885,000
Estimated MIA: 500,000
POW taken: 5,500,000 A.
POW liberated: (2,776,000)
Militia/Partisans: 400,000
Total 10,509,000

A. Less 200,000 Vlasovite dead in Wehrmacht
Last edited by thorwald77 on 31 Jan 2008 03:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by thorwald77 » 31 Jan 2008 03:01

How do the Vlasovite's captured during the war fit into the puzzle? Are they included in the 939,000 of reconscripted soldiers?

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Post by Art » 31 Jan 2008 11:14

thorwald77 wrote:Another issue is the 180,000 POW that remained in the west, they do not appear to be in the Krivosheev calculation. The figure of 180,000 comes from the book Ludsdkie Poteri. How do they fit into the puzzle?

The figure originates from a memorandum prepared for the Zhukov's comission that investigated discrimination of former POWs in 1956. Krivosheev reproduced it and just rounded the figures evidently under impression of claims that these data are extremely contradictory and incomplete made by the authors of the memorandum. Non-repatriated POWs are included in the overall demographic losses along with killed and missing. One important thing is that the number of POWs returned under USSR control given by Krivosheev is in fact the number registered by repatriation organs. The others (that is those who were liberated on the territory of the USSR, except western territories) must be hidden for the most part in the "reconscripted" category. The concluson is that the real number of POWs that stayed alive in the USSR is somewhat higher that 1 830 thousands.
How do the Vlasovite's captured during the war fit into the puzzle?

Repatriated are included in the general repatriation statistics. What happened with non-repatriated collaborants is an interesting question, my guess is that hiwis or usual members of local security forces were for the most part either consripted or returned to normal status. Those who had more serious sins could be repressed.

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Post by thorwald77 » 31 Jan 2008 11:37

Art, so it seems that the issue of POW and reconscripted soldiers included in the total forces at the end of the war makes the Kirvosheev and Mikhaliv figuers suspect. An audit of the 13.6 million card file of the dead & missing may provide the actual answer to the problem. Have the Russian miliitary authorities allowed a serious audit of these files, similar to the work by Overmans in Germany?

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Post by thorwald77 » 31 Jan 2008 11:47

What happened with non-repatriated collaborants is an interesting question,


So Russians today may say that grandfather died in the war against Germany but he may have in fact died in forced labour after the war because he was a Vlasovite . I knew an ethnic German POW( from Zakarpathia) who claimed there were Russians in the prison camp with him. The Soviet guards were Volga Germans :o

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Post by thorwald77 » 31 Jan 2008 12:15

On page 177-181 of Ludskie Poteri there are statistics on the fate of the 5,917,000 Soviets who were released from German captivity - 3,901,000 civilians & 2,016,000 military

a- Drafted into military 1,645,000 ( 1,230,000 former military and 415,000 former civilians)
b- returned to civilian life 3,246,000
c- turned over to NKVD 338,000
d-The balance of 688,000 remained in the west.

Of the 2,016,000 military, 1,230,000 were redrafted, 180,000 remained in the west

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Post by Art » 02 Feb 2008 15:06

Zemskov gives the following information. Among "external repatriants" (arrived from abroad) by 1st March 1946 2 427 906 (2 146 126 civilians and 281 780 former POWs) were returned to civlian life, 801 152 (141 962 civilian and 659 190 POWs) - conscripted to the Army,
608 095 (263 647/344 448) to labor units under Army control, 272 867 (46 740/226 127) - to NKVD filtration camps, 89 468 (61 538/27 930) remained abroad waiting for repatriation on 1.03.1946. Total - 4 199 488 of them 2 660 013 civilians and 1 539 475 former POWs
For internal repatriants the numbers are: 831 951 returned to civilian (831 635 civilians/ 316 POWs), 254 773 drafted (26 705/ 228 068), 66 751 - to filtration camps (8 836/ 57 915).
Total 1 153 475, 867 176 civilians, 286 299 former POWs
So the totals by 1st March 1946 were:
To civilian life - 2 977 761 civilians and 282 096 military, total - 3 259 857
Conscripted (including labour units) - 432 314 civilians and 1 231 706 military, total - 1 664 020
To NKVD - 55 576 civilians and 284 042 former POWs, total - 339 618
Not repatriated yet - 61 538 civilians and 27 930 military, total - 89 468
Fits pretty well with your numbers. In addition some number of repatiants was registered after 1.03.1946, but not so many - by 1.07.1952 4 305 035 external repatrianrs were registered, the difference with the data of March 1946 is about 100 thousands.

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Post by thorwald77 » 02 Feb 2008 15:42

Art, thanks for the data. three points that I think need to be discussed.

One- The number drafted does not include the 500,000 non-conscripted reservists. That leaves 35.0 million to be accounted for not 34.5 million.

Two- I find it hard to believe that the 940,000 recovered personnel and 1,230,000 liberated POW are not included in the ranks of the 12.8 million in the forces at wars end

Three- Also the liberated 606,000 POW not re-conscripted should be listed with the 9.7 million discharged personnel.

It does not make sense that the liberated POW and reconscripted would be left out of the total forces in June 1945 and those discharged during the war.
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Post by thorwald77 » 02 Feb 2008 17:43

Art, have you seen a reconciliation of Krivosheev's figures for each year of the war? We need to see the force level at 12/31/44 and the changes in the first 5 months in 1945 to understand how the Soviets arrive at the ending force of 12.8 million.

A chart that has this data
Total Armed Forces 31/12/44
Drafted
Killed
Missing
Discharged
Total Armed Forces 1/6/1945
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Post by Art » 04 Feb 2008 17:02

thorwald77 wrote:One- The number drafted does not include the 500,000 non-conscripted reservists. That leaves 35.0 million to be accounted for not 34.5 million.

AFAIU they are included.
Two- I find it hard to believe that the 940,000 recovered personnel and 1,230,000 liberated POW are not included in the ranks of the 12.8 million in the forces at wars end

The first are included in the balance. The situation with POWs is more complicated. Some number of POWs were repatriated or arrived to Soviet occupational zone by June 1945 and some number after. It's clear that those who were returned under Soviet control after June couldn't be drafted by that date and so they don't affect balance calculation, though they affect "pure" demographical loss (which equals to balance deficit minus former POWs repatriated after June). The problem is that we don't know these numbers, and we have only sum figures for both civilians and military personnel: roughly 1,5 millions registered by repatriation organs by V-day, about 0.5 million arrived from western occupational zone by June 1945, all the other (more than 3 millions) after. And pay attention to the fact that POWs among internal repatriants were not demobilized and returned to civilian life, while a significant number of "external" was (about 280 thousands). That was because demobilization of older classes began on 23rd June 1945, so demobilized POWs were those who arrived after the start of demobilization. And that means that almost all internal repatriants arrived by June 1945, while a considerable number of external - after. The same conclusion folllows from Zemskov's data.
Another issue is a possible overlap between these two categories: Krivosheev assumes that there is no, but I'm not sure.
Three- Also the liberated 606,000 POW not re-conscripted should be listed with the 9.7 million discharged personnel.

No since they didn't return to Army ranks, they don't affect the balance. They are allready taken into account when demograpical loss is calculated, and the number of POWs who stayed alive but were returned under Soviet control after June 1945 is subtracted from the balance deficit. If I understand that right what we have to do is just to correct the balace method add repatriated POWs returned to Army ranks before June (let's assume that it's X) in the "in" part of the balance taking into account possible overlapping with redrafted category and then subtract (1 830 thousands - X) from the balance deficit to obtain demographical loss.

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